According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of acetic acid has recently risen. On March 13th, the average market price of acetic acid was 3100 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton compared to the price of 3050 yuan/ton on March 7th, an increase of 1.64%, and a decrease of 6.06% compared to the previous month.

Recently, the acetic acid market has been relatively strong and rising. Last weekend, the factory’s shipments were smooth, and the company’s inventory decreased. With the resumption of upstream and downstream operations, there was an increase in restocking in the market. The market trading atmosphere was good, and the quotation of acetic acid manufacturers was raised. However, downstream demand was limited, and the enthusiasm for on-site procurement slowed down, resulting in a stable operation of acetic acid prices.

As of March 13th, the market prices of acetic acid in various regions are as follows:

Region/ March 7th/ March 13th/ Rise and fall

South China region/ 2975 yuan/ton/ 3025 yuan/ton/ fifty

North China region/ 2975 yuan/ton/ 3050 yuan/ton/ seventy-five

Shandong region/ 3050 yuan/ton/ 3100 yuan/ton/ fifty

Jiangsu region/ 2925 yuan/ton/ 2975 yuan/ton/ fifty

Zhejiang region/ 3025 yuan/ton/ 3075 yuan/ton/ fifty

The upstream raw material methanol market first rose and then fell. On March 13th, the average price in the domestic market was 2701.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.37% compared to the price of 2711.67 yuan/ton on March 7th. The maintenance and production reduction of methanol plants are significant, resulting in a decrease in capacity utilization and a favorable supply side. Methanol prices have increased, but downstream main factories have shut down, resulting in insufficient demand support and a decline in methanol prices due to the impact of demand.

The downstream acetic anhydride market continues to rise. On March 13th, the factory price of acetic anhydride was 5512.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.28% compared to the price of 5337.50 yuan/ton on March 7th. The price of acetic acid has rebounded, the cost of acetic anhydride has increased, the inventory of acetic anhydride manufacturers is low, and downstream demand is mainly in demand. Under the favorable cost situation, the price of acetic anhydride has risen accordingly.

In the future market forecast, the acetic acid analyst from Shengyishe believes that although there is an upward trend in the price of acetic acid, the overall market capacity utilization rate is high, and the on-site supply is sufficient. Downstream purchasing is mainly based on demand, with limited on-site trading. Under the supply-demand game, it is expected that the short-term acetic acid market will remain stable and wait-and-see, and attention will be paid to downstream follow-up in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the PP market experienced a narrow range of fluctuations in early March, with prices of various wire drawing brands adjusting narrowly. As of March 12th, the mainstream quoted price for T30S (wire drawing) by domestic producers and traders is around 7707.14 yuan/ton, which has basically fallen back to the price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industry chain: In terms of PP raw materials, the price effect has been diluted due to the reduction of international crude oil OPEC production and the tense news of Red Sea shipping in the early stage, which has recently loosened support for the high cost of oil to PP production. After the rise of propylene, downstream demand was suppressed and entered a downward trend, with a moderate impact on PP. In terms of PDH, propane continues to fluctuate narrowly and its price remains relatively stable. The methanol market is also relatively stable. The upstream raw materials are generally stable, and the overall support for PP is relatively weak.

Overall, the raw material industry is generally average, with slight loosening of support for the PP cost side. In terms of industry load, the average industry load is over 76%, and there has been a recent return of some production lines. At the same time, new production capacity will be implemented and discharged in March, with an expected increase in production. The market supply of goods remains abundant, and the inventory digestion situation last week was still good, but the overall inventory position is still high, with slightly greater pressure on on-site supply. In terms of demand, the basic return of end enterprises has been completed, and the comprehensive operating rates of downstream PP enterprises such as plastic weaving, film materials, and injection molding are about 39%, 64%, and 52%, respectively, with no significant improvement. The replenishment operation of enterprises is average, and the trading atmosphere on the exchange is not strong. The overall market for wire drawing materials is mixed, with a dilemma of ups and downs.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, as of March 12th, the spot price of domestic fiber PP has also increased. The mainstream quoted price for domestic producers and traders of Z30S (fiber) is around 7525 yuan/ton, with an increase or decrease of+0.17% compared to the average price at the beginning of the month, and a decrease of 4.34% compared to the same period last year. Recently, the main downstream non-woven fabric enterprises of PP fiber materials have seen an increase in load, with operating rates increasing by about 2% to 23% compared to the beginning of the month, and operating levels remain at a low level. The digestion speed of end products is sideways, and the demand for non-woven fabrics in the market is mainly based on contracts. The support for fiber material prices is average, and it is expected that the fiber material market will continue to consolidate.

In terms of melt blown materials, the melt blown PP market has recovered this week. As of March 12th, the average quotation of domestic melt blown material sample enterprises monitored by the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe is about 7975 yuan/ton. Compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month, the increase and decrease is -0.31%, and there is a decrease of 12.68% compared to the same period last year. At present, the demand for facial protection in China is generally high, and the consumption of medical melt blown fabric materials is not significantly driven. There is also no significant boost in domestic and foreign demand. In addition, downstream factories have a low load, resulting in new orders leaning towards loose orders. It is expected that the melt blown material market will continue to be weak and stable.

Future Market Forecast

PP analysts from Business Society believe that the polypropylene market remained stable and volatile in early March. The overall trend of upstream raw materials is average, and the support from the cost side for the market is narrow and loose. The resumption of work by terminal enterprises did not meet expectations, and their willingness to stock up was not strong. There is a plan for the return of PP maintenance equipment in the near future, and there are also production facilities. There is an expectation of increased supply in the future. The current resistance to PP consumption is relatively high, and the supply side is under pressure. It is expected that the PP market will enter a weak consolidation period in the short term.

Recent trends in urea prices

Agricultural demand is gradually starting, and urea prices in Shandong have slightly increased this week. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the price of urea in Shandong increased from 2515 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2520 yuan/ton at the end of the week, an increase of 0.20%, and the weekend price decreased by 11.07% year-on-year.

From the supply side, the current operating rate of urea enterprises is around 80%, and the daily urea production in China is about 180000 tons. The mainstream urea manufacturers in Shandong saw a slight increase in factory prices during the week.

Details of the price of Yangquan anthracite coal this week

Variety/ March 4th/ March 10th/ Changes

Anthracite coal (washed lump)/ 1050 yuan/ton/ 1050 yuan/ton/ None

From the upstream market, there were ups and downs in the urea upstream market this week. The circulation of liquefied natural gas market was limited, the release of terminal demand was slow, and the trading atmosphere was poor. The price of liquefied natural gas fell by 2.53%, and the weekend price fell by 23.67% year-on-year. The price of liquid ammonia increased by 3.45%, and the weekend price fell by 27.38% year-on-year. However, the price of anthracite remains stable for the time being, with the price of Yangquan anthracite (washed lump) at 1050 yuan/ton over the weekend, indicating a continued weak trend in the coal market in the short term. Overall, upstream raw material prices fluctuate, providing moderate support for urea prices.

From the perspective of downstream demand: agricultural demand is gradually starting, and industrial demand is following the market. Composite fertilizer, board, and melamine enterprises are operating at a low level, with a focus on procurement for essential needs. The downstream price of melamine in urea has slightly increased this week, rising from 7450 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7500 yuan/ton at the end of the week, an increase of 0.67%.

Looking ahead, the urea market in Shandong may experience a slight fluctuation and increase in mid to late March. Business Society urea analysts believe that the upstream urea market has ups and downs, and the cost support for urea is average. But downstream agricultural demand is gradually starting, with industrial primary demand. In the future, urea may experience a narrow range of fluctuations and mainly rise.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market rose strongly this week (3.4-3.8). The average price in the Shandong market at the beginning of the week was 6863 yuan/ton, and the average price over the weekend was 7054 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 2.79% and a year-on-year decrease of 4.75%.

As of March 8th, the mainstream prices of propylene in different regions in China are as follows:

Region/ March 8th

Shandong region/ 7050-7100 yuan/ton

Northeast region/ 6650-6700 yuan/ton

East China region/ 6900-6950 yuan/ton

2、 Analysis and Review

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the propylene market has shown a significant increase this week. In the early part of the week, due to the shutdown of some upstream devices in the region, supply has tightened, prices have risen, and downstream buyers have entered the market. In the later part of the week, prices rose to a high level, and the atmosphere of downstream entry into the market weakened. In addition, some units released propylene, which eased the tight supply situation and led to a slight decline in propylene prices.

3、 Future Market Forecast

The propylene analyst from the Chemical Branch of Business Society believes that currently, the increase in propylene prices will lead to a narrowing of downstream profits, which will suppress propylene demand. It is expected that the focus of propylene prices will shift downward in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of 55% powdered ammonium phosphate in China was 3120 yuan/ton on March 1st, and 3136 yuan/ton on March 7th. This week, the market price of ammonium phosphate increased by 0.53%.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of 64% diammonium phosphate in China was 3963 yuan/ton on March 1st. On March 7th, the average market price of 64% diammonium phosphate in China was 3966 yuan/ton. This week, the market price of diammonium phosphate increased by 0.08%.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the market for ammonium phosphate has risen, with manufacturers slightly raising their prices. The price of raw material phosphate ore has increased, leading to increased cost support. At present, the supply of ammonium phosphate is relatively low, and the market supply is tight. Downstream procurement is based on demand, and actual transactions are mainly negotiated. As of March 7th, the market price of 55 powder ammonium in Hubei region is around 3050-3100 yuan/ton, and the factory price of 55 powder ammonium in Henan region is around 3100-3200 yuan/ton, with actual negotiations being the main focus. The outbound price of 64% diammonium in Shandong region is around 3950-4050 yuan/ton, and the outbound price of 57% diammonium is around 3550-3650 yuan/ton. The actual transaction is negotiable.

In terms of raw material sulfur. This week, domestic sulfur prices first rose and then fell, and sulfur plants were operating normally with sufficient market supply. As of March 7th, the reference price for sulfur in East China is around 1020 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material phosphate ore. This week, some mining companies in certain regions in China have raised prices in the mid to high end grade phosphate ore market narrowly, driving the overall focus of negotiations in the phosphate ore market upwards. As of March 7th, the domestic market price for 30 grade phosphate ore is around 1000-1100 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to analysts from Business Society, the current market situation for ammonium phosphate is generally stable with minor fluctuations. The spring plowing fertilizer season is approaching, and the demand side needs to be released. Recently, with the support of costs and supply side, it is expected that the short-term ammonium phosphate market will remain stable and improve.

According to the analysis system of the commodity market of Shengyishe, as of March 6th, the average price of high-quality rubber grade white carbon black in China was 5800 yuan/ton. Today, the white carbon black market is mainly weak, with a price drop of 3.33% compared to the previous day, a decrease of about 200 yuan/ton. Currently, the mainstream market price is around 6000 yuan/ton, and manufacturers are making concessions and taking orders, putting pressure on the operation.

On March 6th, the price of domestic rubber grade white carbon black showed a downward trend, with a decrease of 3.33% compared to the previous day, a decrease of about 200 yuan/ton. The upstream raw materials hydrochloric acid and sulfuric acid showed a stable, moderate, and weak trend, and white carbon black lacked favorable support in terms of cost. Currently, downstream demand is weak, and the purchasing atmosphere is average. The overall inventory of white carbon black is high, and consumption is slow. Downstream manufacturers mainly purchase according to demand.

White carbon black commodity index: On March 6th, the white carbon black commodity index was 130.63, a decrease of 4.51 points from yesterday, a decrease of 15.64% from the highest point in the cycle of 154.84 points (2021-12-06), and an increase of 46.10% from the lowest point of 89.41 points on October 7th, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-09-01 present).

Business Society’s white carbon black analyst believes that it is expected that the white carbon black market will operate steadily, moderately, and weakly in the short term, with insufficient momentum for price increases.

Weak consolidation of plasticizer DOTP

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of March 5th, the price of DOTP was 11850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.42% compared to February 29th when the price of DOTP was 11900 yuan/ton; Compared to February 16th, the price of DOTP decreased by 0.63% at 11925 yuan/ton; Compared to February 1st, the price of DOTP decreased by 0.63% to 11925 yuan/ton. The prices of raw materials such as isooctanol and phthalic anhydride are weakly consolidating, with insufficient cost support; After the holiday, plasticizer manufacturers resumed production, and the supply of DOTP increased. Downstream production resumed slowly, and the demand for plasticizers did not recover well. In February, DOTP prices weakened and stabilized.

Weak consolidation of isooctanol prices

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of February 29th, the quotation for isooctanol was 12437.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.71% compared to the quotation of 12350 yuan/ton on February 16th; Compared to February 1st, the price of 12375 yuan/ton has increased by 0.51%; On March 5th, the price of isooctanol was 12337.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.80% from February 29th and 0.30% from February 1st. During the Spring Festival, the production of isooctanol was at a low level, but after the holiday, it slowly recovered. The supply of isooctanol increased, but the demand for isooctanol did not recover well. In February, the price of isooctanol weakened and stabilized, while after the holiday, the raw material propylene fluctuated and rose, increasing cost support. In March, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and stabilized.

The price of phthalic anhydride first rises and then falls

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of February 29th, the price of phthalic anhydride was 7687.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.82% compared to the price of 7625 yuan/ton on February 16th, and an increase of 0.82% compared to the price of 7625 yuan/ton on February 1st; On March 5th, the price of phthalic anhydride was 7587.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.30% from February 29th and 0.49% from February 1st. During the Spring Festival, some facilities continued to shut down, and after the holiday, the domestic production rate of phthalic anhydride was around 60%. During the Spring Festival, inventory consumption on site was fast, and prices of phthalic anhydride manufacturers increased. With the resumption of production by phthalic anhydride manufacturers, the supply of phthalic anhydride increased, and demand was poor. As a result, the price of phthalic anhydride fell in March.

PVC prices fluctuate and rise

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of March 5th, the PVC quotation was 5629 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.59% compared to the PVC quotation of 5596 yuan/ton on February 29th; Compared to February 17th, the price of PVC increased by 1.13% to 5566 yuan/ton; Compared to February 1st, the price of PVC increased by 0.99% to 5574 yuan/ton. Before the holiday, PVC demand was weak, PVC prices fluctuated and fell, downstream rigid demand procurement, downstream manufacturers began to work after the holiday, PVC prices fluctuated and rose after the holiday, and demand for plasticizers slowly rebounded.

Future expectations

Business Society plasticizer product data analysts believe that the price of raw material isooctanol is weak and consolidating, and the cost support for plasticizer DOTP is insufficient; After the holiday, the PVC market rebounded slowly, with insufficient demand for plasticizers and poor support for the increase in plasticizers. In the future, the cost support for plasticizers is insufficient, and downstream demand is slowly recovering. It is expected that DOTP prices will fluctuate and consolidate in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of March 4th, the average price of melamine enterprises was 7450.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.33% compared to last Tuesday (February 27th).

Cost side: According to the analysis system chart of the commodity market in Shengyishe, the reference price of urea on March 1st was 2520.00, an increase of 3.63% compared to February 1st (2431.67). On March 4th, the comprehensive price of urea in Shandong was 2515 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.20% compared to yesterday. The cost side has limited support from the melamine market.

Supply and demand side: Currently, the melamine industry is operating at a high level, with sufficient market supply. Although downstream operations are gradually underway, demand release is slow, and inquiries and purchases are mainly in demand. The atmosphere for new orders in the market is light, and manufacturers are gradually under pressure on the supply side as early orders are executed. Enterprises are offering discounts and receiving orders, resulting in a decline in the price center of melamine.

The melamine analyst from Business Society believes that the current cost support is average, and the supply-demand contradiction in the market is evident, with insufficient positive support. It is expected that in the short term, the melamine market may experience weak consolidation and operation, and more attention should still be paid to market news guidance.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of cryolite slightly decreased in February. On February 29th, the average market price in Henan Province was 7600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton compared to the initial price of 7625 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.33%.

In February, the domestic ice crystal market slightly decreased, and the main ice crystal enterprises remained stable with little movement. In February, raw material prices remained low, which weakened support for the cryolite market. Downstream buyers followed up on demand, and the market trading atmosphere was weak. However, due to difficulties in operating fluorite mines, spot prices continued to be tight, and the overall price remained at a high level in the fluorite industry. There is still pressure on the cost of cryolite, with most cryolite manufacturers maintaining stable prices. Some companies are under pressure to ship, and in order to promote inventory scheduling, cryolite prices have slightly decreased.

The upstream fluorite market remained stable in February, with slight fluctuations in price. As of February 29th, the average price of fluorite was 3350.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.19% compared to the beginning of the month price of 3343.75 yuan/ton. The game situation in the domestic fluorite industry still exists, and the operating rate of enterprises remains low. In addition, fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental requirements, making it more difficult to operate fluorite mines. Downstream procurement follows up on demand, and actual procurement is limited. The fluorite price market is on a wait-and-see basis.

Market forecast: Ice crystal raw material extraction is difficult, fluorite supply is tight, and there is still pressure on the cost of ice crystal. The price of ice crystal on the market is mainly strong, and there is resistance and bearish sentiment towards high prices in the downstream. The downward momentum of ice crystal prices is significant, and the market mentality is cautious. It is expected that the ice crystal market will be sorted out in March, and specific attention will be paid to changes in cost prices and downstream follow-up.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the coal tar market in Shanxi Province was temporarily stable at the beginning of the month in February 2024, with a significant increase after the holiday. The price at the beginning of the month was 4360 yuan/ton, and the price at the end of the month was 4730 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 8.49%.

From the monthly K-bar chart of coal tar, it can be seen that after entering 2023, the coal tar market has experienced more decline and less increase, with significant increases and decreases from January to May, and relatively small fluctuations in June and July. On a monthly basis, the market saw a broad decline of 19.37% in January, followed by a brief 13% rebound in February. In March, prices fell sharply again by 15.2%, and in April, the decline continued to expand to 36.91%. In May, the market rebounded significantly by 32%. The market performance in June and July was relatively stable, but after entering August, the market fluctuated greatly, with overall gains and losses. The market maintained a narrow range of fluctuations from September to October, with a broad decline in November.

Note: The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of price trend candlestick to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations.

On February 29th, the coal tar (high-temperature) commodity index was 163.10, an increase of 10.34 points from yesterday, a decrease of 29.54% from the highest point in the cycle of 231.47 points (2022-11-09), and an increase of 245.92% from the lowest point of 47.15 points on December 6th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-09-01 present).

Most coking enterprises conducted the final round of auctions before and after January 30th, and most companies signed contracts for three weeks. Therefore, the coal tar market maintained a temporary stable operation in mid to early February, until the latest round of auctions after the year began around the 20th in various regions. With tight supply and downstream replenishment demand boosting, auction prices rose. At the end of the month auction, boosted by the dual benefits of supply and demand, the price at the end of the month has significantly increased again, with an adjustment range of 100-400 yuan/ton.

From 2022 to present, we can see from the operating rate curve of independent coking enterprises in China that after entering 24 years, the operating rate of coking enterprises has significantly declined. After the holiday, the fourth round of increase in prices of coking enterprises has quickly landed, and coking enterprises have generally suffered losses. There has been a significant increase in active production restriction enterprises, and the comprehensive operating rate has slid to below 70%. The supply of coal tar is tight, and the supply side is favorable. Moreover, due to the impact of losses on coking enterprises recently, it is difficult for them to increase their operating rates in the short term, and the tight supply situation in the tar market will continue for a period of time.

From the price table of the deep processing industry we monitored in February, it can be seen that the overall performance of the deep processing market has significantly improved since February, with prices of related commodities rising, especially the prices of major commodities such as carbon black and coal tar pitch, which have significantly increased, driving the market to heat up. Downstream enterprises also generally have a demand for replenishment after the holiday, actively entering the market for inquiries and procurement. With the boost of replenishment demand, the demand side will continue to be positive for a period of time.

Overall, the tight supply pattern in the coal tar market will continue for a period of time, with strong support from the demand side under the influence of two important commodities, carbon black and coal tar pitch. Driven by the dual benefits of supply and demand, it is expected that the coal tar market will continue to maintain a strong performance in the near future.