According to data monitored by Business Society, carbon black prices have been weak this week. As of now, the domestic N220 carbon black market price is 9566 yuan/ton

In terms of raw materials, the market price of coal tar fell this week. As of the 1st, the price of coal tar was 4237 yuan/ton, a decrease of nearly 150 yuan/ton from December 25th, which provided poor support for the cost of carbon black. The overall downstream market is still sluggish, and there are currently no eye-catching products in the downstream industry. We only maintain on-demand procurement for coal tar, which is suppressing the downward adjustment of coal tar market prices. The bearish situation still exists, and it is expected that coal tar prices will operate weakly in the short term.

Supply and demand side: In November, some carbon black enterprises stopped production for maintenance to alleviate inventory pressure, dragging down a narrow decline in the operating rate of carbon black enterprises. In December, due to environmental factors, some carbon black enterprises in Shandong, Shanxi and other regions were restricted in their operations, and the operating rate of carbon black enterprises was slightly reduced.

In terms of terminals: The downstream tire industry is currently in a seasonal off-season, and businesses have a more wait-and-see attitude. The demand for all steel tires and half steel tires is gradually slowing down. The transportation volume of goods in the northern logistics industry has significantly decreased, and the demand for tire replacement has sharply decreased. Terminal demand is weak, and enterprise inventory continues to slowly increase. Some tire companies are carrying out equipment maintenance to reduce production burden. Manufacturers are not actively purchasing carbon black raw materials, and entering the market to obtain goods only maintains basic needs, The market trading atmosphere is relatively quiet.

In the future, the high-temperature coal tar market may continue to be weak, providing poor support for the cost of carbon black; In the context of a sluggish market, the downstream terminal tire industry is facing a multi-dimensional demand for goods entering the market. It is expected that the carbon black market will remain generally stable in the short term and operate in a consolidated manner.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, as of December 31, the mainstream ex factory price of domestic refined hydrogenated naphtha was 7746.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.96% from December 21 at 7821.50 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price of refined hydrogenated naphtha was around 7700-7900 yuan/ton.

As of December 31, the mainstream ex factory price of domestically refined straight run naphtha was 7664.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.38% from December 21′s price of 7771.50 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price of domestically refined straight run naphtha was around 7600-7800 yuan/ton.

In late December, terminal demand procurement was the main focus, with no substantial improvement in fundamentals. The overall demand for naphtha terminals was weak, with average trading volume, and refineries reduced prices for shipments.

Upstream: In late December, international oil prices slightly declined. As of the 28th, the settlement price of the main WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was at $71.77 per barrel, while the settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was at $77.15 per barrel. On the one hand, geopolitical factors have eased, and shipping in the Red Sea region has recovered. As a result, international oil prices have fallen. On the other hand, inflationary pressure still exists, and crude oil demand is poor. Currently, the demand for oil products in Europe and America is in the off-season, which has suppressed crude oil prices. The results of the production policy meeting of the last oil producing country (OPEC+) did not meet market expectations, as the reduction in production was less than expected; Secondly, the voluntary nature of the reduction in production is questionable, and the supply side will face greater pressure in the future.

Downstream: According to monitoring by Business Society, the domestic mixed blending market has entered a low season since the fourth quarter, with weak downstream inquiries. The demand for toluene and mixed xylene mixed blending continues to weaken, with a slight increase in toluene and a slight decrease in mixed xylene in late December; The price trend of PX is rising, and the domestic PX operating rate remains above 80%. Downstream support for the naphtha market is generally weak.

Market forecast: The international crude oil market is volatile, increasing the wait-and-see sentiment in the naphtha market; The domestic gasoline and diesel market has entered the off-season, and there is no significant positive effect on the terminal of refined naphtha; After the holiday, some companies may replenish their essential goods, but merchants are cautious in chasing higher prices. It is expected that the refined naphtha market in the post holiday area will mainly consolidate.