Product Name: PVC

 

Latest price: 5554 yuan/ton

 

Analysis points: On January 17th, the PVC spot market prices fluctuated. Manufacturers mainly maintain stable prices, with a moderate trading atmosphere on the market. Dealers are more flexible in pricing, and market transactions are cautious. At present, the quotation for PVC SG5 is mostly around 5280-5700 yuan/ton. Downstream players are more cautious, and market transactions are relatively light.

 

It is expected that the PVC spot market will consolidate and operate within the short term.

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Recent price trends of tetrahydrofuran

 

Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid)

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the price of tetrahydrofuran in the domestic market has slightly increased this week. This week, the average price of tetrahydrofuran in the mainstream domestic market increased from 12925 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 13075 yuan/ton over the weekend, an increase of 1.16%, and the weekend price increased by 1.83% year-on-year.

 

Upstream support is average, downstream demand weakens

 

From the supply side perspective, mainstream domestic tetrahydrofuran distributors have seen a slight increase in quotes this week, with average inventory levels.

 

From the upstream raw material market of tetrahydrofuran, the 1,4-butanediol market saw a slight increase this week, with prices rising from 9514.29 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 9535.71 yuan/ton at the end of the week, an increase of 0.23%, and a year-on-year decrease of 12.76% over the weekend. This week, the market for maleic anhydride experienced a significant decline, with prices dropping from 7740 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7300 yuan/ton over the weekend, a decrease of 5.68%, and a year-on-year increase of 5.42% over the weekend. Overall, the upstream raw material market prices fluctuate, with average cost support. However, due to the impact of supply and demand, it has a negative impact on the price of tetrahydrofuran.

 

From the downstream market of tetrahydrofuran, the price of spandex in the market has stabilized at a low level this week. The price of spandex is 32000 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year decrease of 8.90% over the weekend. The downstream spandex market prices are consolidating at a low level, and downstream customers are generally enthusiastic about purchasing tetrahydrofuran.

 

Future prospects

 

In mid to late January, the domestic tetrahydrofuran market may experience a slight fluctuation and decline. The upstream maleic anhydride market has slightly declined, with insufficient cost support. The downstream spandex market is consolidating at a low level, and downstream demand is weakening. Business Society’s tetrahydrofuran analyst believes that in the short term, the domestic tetrahydrofuran market may experience slight fluctuations and declines due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.

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1、 Overview of Yellow Phosphorus Industry

 

Yellow phosphorus, also known as white phosphorus. White or light yellow semi transparent solid. Yellow phosphorus is located in the middle of the entire phosphorus chemical industry chain, and the downstream demand distribution of yellow phosphorus is mainly concentrated in the two major fields of phosphoric acid (43%) and phosphorus trichloride (37%), and it is also widely used in specific applications. The main uses of yellow phosphorus in other aspects are the production of sodium hypophosphate, phosphorus pentoxide, red phosphorus, hexametaphosphate, phosphorus pentoxide, etc. Its consumption accounts for about 15% of the total consumption of yellow phosphorus.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid)

According to monitoring of commodity data, the yellow phosphorus market in 2023 is mainly divided into three stages of decline, rise, and fall, with overall prices falling. At the beginning of the year (January 1st), the average price of yellow phosphorus was 33125 yuan/ton, and at the end of the year (December 31st), the average price was 22962.67 yuan/ton. The price has decreased by 30.68% during the year. The highest point of the year occurred on January 4th at 33250 yuan, and the lowest point occurred on May 11th at 20000 yuan. The first stage is the downward phase from January to mid May. The second stage is the upward phase from mid May to mid November. The third stage is the downward phase from mid November to the end of December.

 

The market price of yellow phosphorus mainly declined from January to March in the first quarter. Before and after the Spring Festival holiday in January, the market was relatively quiet. The news of power rationing in Yunnan in late February has improved the overall market trading situation. In March, the supply of yellow phosphorus in the market increased significantly, making it difficult for high-end prices to be traded and leading to a decrease in market prices. The average price on January 1st was 33125 yuan/ton, and on March 31st it was 30300 yuan/ton. The cumulative decline from January to March was 8.53%.

 

In the second quarter, from April to June, the price of yellow phosphorus first fell and then rose, with the overall decline being the main trend. The domestic yellow phosphorus market continued to be weak in April, with limited new orders and a significant drop in yellow phosphorus market prices. In May, the market price of yellow phosphorus first fell and then rose. Many yellow phosphorus producing enterprises reduced their production load, some enterprises stopped production, delayed driving time, and later increased prices, causing prices to hit the bottom and rebound. In June, the price of yellow phosphorus in the market first rose and then fell, and there was not much inventory on the market. They were reluctant to sell at low prices, and the overall market situation rose. The average price on April 1st was 30300 yuan/ton, and on June 30th it was 22900 yuan/ton. The cumulative decline from April to June was 24.42%.

 

In the third quarter, from July to September, the price of yellow phosphorus first rose and then fell, with an overall increase being the main trend. The construction of the 7-8 market is still at a low level, and it is difficult to find low-priced goods on the market. The atmosphere of new order negotiations is strong, and prices are rising. In late September, downstream stocking and procurement were basically completed, and on-site distributors sold at low prices. The focus of new transaction prices gradually declined. The average price on July 1st was 22900 yuan/ton, and on September 30th it was 25522.67 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of 11.45% from July to September.

In the fourth quarter, from October to December, the price of yellow phosphorus first rose and then fell, with an overall decline being the main trend. In October, the price of upstream phosphate ore increased, and there were many inquiries from downstream, making it difficult to purchase at a lower price. Manufacturers increased their prices. Affected by the power rationing policy in Yunnan region in November, companies showed strong reluctance to sell and their prices were raised. The market trading situation in December was light, with poor demand and downstream procurement at lower prices, resulting in a downward market focus. The average price on November 1st was 25522.67 yuan/ton, and on December 31st it was 22962.67/ton. The cumulative decline from October to December was 10.03%.

 

Yellow phosphorus production capacity

 

The production capacity of yellow phosphorus in China is distributed in provinces with relatively concentrated phosphate ore and hydropower resources, mainly in the four provinces of Hubei, Sichuan, Guizhou, and Yunnan. In 2022, the total production capacity of yellow phosphorus reached 1.4485 million tons, an increase of 2.73% year-on-year. According to incomplete statistics from relevant institutions, the domestic yellow phosphorus production capacity has slightly increased. As of the end of December 2023, the scale of yellow phosphorus production capacity has increased to 1.459 million tons/year. There is not much difference compared to 2022. In terms of production, May 2023 had the lowest output, with a monthly output of around 35000 tons. The highest production was in October, with a monthly output of around 74500 tons. The comprehensive estimated production in 2023 is around 660000 tons.

 

Yellow phosphorus import and export volume

 

According to customs statistics, the cumulative export volume of yellow phosphorus from January to November 2023 was 57600 kilograms, with an export amount of 385920 US dollars. From January to December 2023, China imported a total of 0 tons of yellow phosphorus. Considering tariffs and transportation costs, large-scale import and export of yellow phosphorus is still not feasible. It is expected that in recent years, China’s yellow phosphorus will still be mainly produced and sold domestically, with relatively small import and export volumes.

 

In terms of upstream raw materials

 

According to data monitoring by Business Society, as of December 31, 2023, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate ore in China was around 1034 yuan/ton. Compared with January 1, 2023 (reference price of 1056 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 22 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.08%. In 2023, the overall market situation of domestic phosphate ore showed a slight decline ending in a mixed trend of ups and downs.

 

In 2022, China’s phosphorus ore production reached 104.745 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%. From January to November 2023, the overall production of phosphate ore was 94.05 million tons, and the cumulative production of major phosphate ore producing areas for the year decreased by 3 million tons compared to 2022.

In terms of upstream fuel

 

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, on January 1, 2023, the ex factory price of quasi first grade metallurgical coke was 2682 yuan/ton, and on December 31, the ex factory price of quasi first grade metallurgical coke was 2430 yuan/ton. The price has dropped by 9.4% this year. In 2023, the coke market first rose and then fell, with an overall downward trend.

 

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to November 2023, the national coke production reached 450 million tons, an increase of 3.27% year-on-year. The overall production of coke has maintained a slight increase, with an estimated coke production of 490 million tons in 2023.

 

In terms of domestic demand

 

In terms of phosphorus trichloride, China is one of the world’s largest producers and consumers of phosphorus trichloride. It is expected that the production of phosphorus trichloride in China will increase to 1.9759 million tons in 2023, and the demand is expected to increase to 1.9653 million tons.

 

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of January 1, 2023, the average price of phosphoric acid was 9025 yuan/ton, and as of December 31, the average price was 6340 yuan/ton. The price has dropped by 29.75% this year. In 2023, phosphoric acid showed an overall downward trend.

3、 Future Market Forecast

 

At the macro level, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Science and Technology, the Ministry of Natural Resources, the Ministry of Ecological Environment, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the Ministry of Emergency Management, the Chinese Academy of Sciences and other eight departments jointly issued the Implementation Plan for Promoting the Efficient and High value Utilization of Phosphorus Resources recently. The plan proposes that by 2026, China’s sustainable guarantee capacity for phosphorus resources will be significantly enhanced, the independent innovation ability and green safety level of phosphorus chemical industry will steadily improve, the supply capacity of high-end phosphorus chemicals will be significantly improved, the complementary regional advantages and linkage development ability will continue to strengthen, and the resilience and safety level of the industrial chain supply chain will be more stable. And specific development goals have been clarified from four aspects: innovation driven, structural optimization, green development, and ecological cultivation.

 

Upstream aspect: The slight decline in phosphate ore prices generally supports the cost of yellow phosphorus. The price decline in the coke market has limited support for yellow phosphorus. Overall, the cost support is not significant.

 

On the supply side, there is currently a slight increase in domestic yellow phosphorus production capacity, which is not much different from 2022. At present, there are plans for new projects in Yunnan, Sichuan, and Guizhou regions, but the actual implementation situation still needs to be evaluated based on the current situation. In the situation where the supply-demand contradiction in the yellow phosphorus market still exists in 2024, the actual plan for the production of new production capacity may be delayed.

 

In terms of import and export: According to customs statistics, the cumulative export volume of yellow phosphorus from January to November 2023 was 57600 kilograms. From January to November, a total of 0 tons of yellow phosphorus were imported. Considering tariffs and transportation costs, large-scale import and export of yellow phosphorus is still not feasible. It is expected that in recent years, China’s yellow phosphorus will still be mainly produced and sold domestically, with relatively small import and export volumes.

 

In terms of demand: With the continuous development of the economy, the scale of downstream industries such as phosphate fertilizers and lithium batteries continues to expand. In recent years, the demand for yellow phosphorus in China has continued to grow, and the industry has a broad consumer market. The downstream phosphorus trichloride has a promising prospect and has played a certain supporting role in the demand for yellow phosphorus.

 

In summary, in the year 2023, the supply-demand contradiction in the yellow phosphorus market led to an overall decline in market prices. In 2024, opportunities and challenges coexist in the yellow phosphorus market. Overall, the future will maintain stable development. Domestic yellow phosphorus production enterprises need to increase investment in environmental protection, improve production processes, reduce energy consumption and pollution emissions, and promote the industry’s development towards green and sustainable direction.

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Recently (1.8-1.14), the market for butadiene rubber has slightly declined. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of January 14th, the market price of butadiene rubber in East China was 12240 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.81% from last Friday’s 12340 yuan/ton.

Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid)

 

The price of raw material butadiene has narrowed and stabilized, with the main focus on the cost of butadiene rubber remaining stable. Downstream tire factories have started to recover, and there is a strong demand support for butadiene rubber; Multiple devices have been shut down and reduced in load. Recently, the supply of butadiene rubber has been tight, providing strong support for butadiene rubber. However, some plans have been restarted in the near future, and the supply of butadiene rubber is expected to rebound. The bearish atmosphere in the market has increased, and the factory prices of enterprises have slightly decreased. As of January 14th, PetroChina Northeast Sales Company’s Daqing Shunding Northeast Warehouse has raised prices by 12300 yuan/ton, while the mainstream price of Shunding rubber in the East China region is reported at 12000~12500 yuan/ton; Private polybutadiene rubber costs 11800-11900 yuan/ton.

 

Some of the early parking and maintenance devices have plans to restart in the near future, and the supply of butadiene rubber is expected to rebound.

 

Recently (1.8-1.14), the price of butadiene has narrowed, and the cost center of butadiene rubber has remained stable. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of January 14th, the price of butadiene was 8753 yuan/ton, which was unchanged from Monday’s price and fell to 8687 yuan/ton within the week.

 

Recently (1.8-1.14), the natural rubber market has slightly increased, which has had a slightly positive impact on butadiene rubber. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of January 14th, the price was 12810 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.10% from Monday’s 12670 yuan/ton, and the highest point in the cycle was 13180 yuan/ton.

 

Demand side: After the holiday, downstream tire companies have partially restarted their maintenance equipment, resulting in an increase in tire production and a slight rebound in demand for rubber. It is understood that as of mid January 2023, the operating load of all steel tires in rubber tire enterprises in Shandong region is around 560%; The operating load of semi steel tires in domestic rubber tire enterprises is around 7.2%.

 

Market forecast: Business Society analysts believe that raw material prices will continue to narrow down, and the cost of butadiene rubber will remain stable. In the near future, the plan to restart parking facilities will restart, and the supply of butadiene rubber is expected to return to loose. Downstream tire production will slightly increase, but stocking is still cautious. Overall, the spot market of butadiene rubber will remain stable and weak in the short term.

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According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of January 11, 2024, the factory price reference for domestically produced industrial grade dimethyl carbonate is 4000 yuan/ton. Compared with January 7 (reference price for dimethyl carbonate is 4033 yuan/ton), the price has decreased by 33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.83%; Compared with January 1st (reference price of dimethyl carbonate at 4066 yuan/ton), the price has been reduced by 66 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.64%.

Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid)

 

From the monitoring chart of Business Society data, it can be seen that this week (1.7-1.11), the overall domestic dimethyl carbonate market showed a weak downward trend. During the week, with the increase in supply of dimethyl carbonate on-site, the pressure on the supply side of dimethyl carbonate increased. Under the pressure of supply, some dimethyl carbonate factories narrowly reduced the shipment price of dimethyl carbonate by about 100 yuan/ton. As of January 11th, the domestic market price of dimethyl carbonate is referenced to be around 3700-4100 yuan/ton, while the high price is referenced to be 4300 yuan/ton.

 

Analysis of future market trends

 

At present, the downstream demand side of dimethyl carbonate is generally weak, and the transmission of supply and demand is relatively slow. The trading atmosphere of dimethyl carbonate on the market is light, and the mentality of the industry is average. The dimethyl carbonate data analyst of Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market will mainly adjust and operate in a narrow range, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to the changes in news on the supply and demand side.

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According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of December 31, 2023, the reference market price for domestically produced industrial grade propylene glycol was 8300 yuan/ton. Compared with January 1 (reference price for propylene glycol was 7400 yuan/ton), the price increased by 900 yuan/ton, an increase of 12.16%. The overall market situation of propylene glycol in China in 2023 showed a wide range of fluctuations. Throughout the year, the lowest point of the price reference was 7133 yuan/ton, with a maximum decline of 26.90%.

 

What will be the market situation for propylene glycol in 2024?

 

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Firstly, let’s review the market trends of propylene glycol over the past three years. From the comparison chart of market data from Business Society, it is clear that in 2023, the domestic propylene glycol market has shown a significant decline compared to the market in 2021. In 2021, the price of propylene glycol in the market was almost always above 15000 yuan/ton, and the propylene glycol market was also at a high level in the first half of 2022. In the second half of 2022, The propylene glycol market is gradually falling to a low level. Therefore, in 2023, the propylene glycol market started at a low level. Although there was a significant fluctuation throughout the year, the market still failed to break through the 10000 yuan mark, with a tight increase of 12.56% throughout the year.

 

In terms of production capacity: In 2023, the overall production capacity of propylene glycol units in China has been improved. In June 2023, Shandong Depu New Materials Company successfully completed the production of 69000 tons/year of dimethyl carbonate and 55000 tons/year of propylene glycol units. The production capacity of propylene glycol units in the East China region has increased to 78% in the country. As of the end of 2023, the production capacity of domestic propylene glycol units is based on 1.08 million tons per year. The increase in propylene glycol production capacity is a double-edged sword. On the one hand, in the past two years, the overcapacity of propylene glycol in China has become apparent, and the increase in production capacity will bring certain supply pressure to enterprises. On the other hand, the improvement of propylene glycol production capacity is more conducive to the comprehensive development of the propylene glycol upstream and downstream industry chain, and the overall improvement of propylene glycol production capacity is also more conducive to the profit and loss control of the propylene glycol upstream and downstream industry chain.

 

In terms of supply: At present, China’s propylene glycol production is mainly based on the propylene glycol/dimethyl carbonate co production process and the epoxypropane hydration method. Among them, the PO ester exchange method of the dimethyl carbonate/propylene glycol co production process has a certain production cost advantage compared to the epoxypropane hydration method, and the main production enterprises are concentrated in provinces such as Shandong, Anhui, and Guangdong. By the end of 2023, the PO ester exchange method accounted for 80%, a slight increase compared to last year. In 2023, with the increase in domestic epoxy propane production capacity, the overall production of its by-product propylene glycol has also increased. Therefore, in 2024, it is expected that there will be significant supply side competition in the propylene glycol market, and the supply pressure on factories will also increase accordingly.

Export: China is one of the world’s major propylene glycol exporters. The top three countries and regions for China’s export are Türkiye, the United Arab Emirates and Indonesia. Announcement No. 15 of 2020 issued by the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation will be implemented from March 20, 2020, increasing the export tax rebate rate for some products, with the export tax rebate rate for propylene glycol increasing to 13%, which is a favorable policy for propylene glycol exports. From January to November 2023, the export volume of propylene glycol reached 188400 tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.45%. From 2021 to 2023, the proportion of propylene glycol exports has been increasing year by year. It is expected that the export of propylene glycol will continue to show a growth trend in 2024.

 

In terms of demand: In 2023, the overall demand performance of the propylene glycol market is average, with insufficient support from the main downstream consumer sectors of propylene glycol, and a low operating rate in the downstream unsaturated resin industry. The proportion of downstream UPR, the main force of propylene glycol, in the industry has also decreased in 2023. Due to weak demand in terminal fiberglass, real estate and other fields, the overall capacity utilization rate of the UPR industry is low. In 2024, with the continuous recovery of the downstream terminal market and the production of new devices in the downstream propylene glycol elastomer polyether market, the market demand for waterproof coatings, adhesives and other fields in the terminal application market will be boosted. Therefore, it is expected that the overall downstream demand in the propylene glycol market will increase in 2024.

 

In summary, the propylene glycol data analyst from Business Society believes that the domestic propylene glycol market in 2024 will be a year of both opportunities and challenges. In terms of market challenges, the pressure on the propylene glycol supply side is still present, and downstream demand is also concerned. For market opportunities, the deployment of new raw material production capacity for propylene glycol and the production of new equipment for propylene glycol itself will bring new supply-demand distribution to the market. The demand side also has expectations, combined with the positive effects of exports on the market. It is expected that in 2024, the domestic propylene glycol market will mostly warm up and grow step by step.

Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid)

According to the commodity market analysis system, the price of cryolite in Henan region remained stable this week. On January 7th, the average market price in Henan region was 7700 yuan/ton, which was stable compared to the average price of 7700 yuan/ton on January 1st and remained unchanged compared to the previous month.

 

Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid)

This week, the ice crystal market has remained stable with minor fluctuations, and some companies have slightly lowered their prices. The prices of upstream products have declined, and the cost of cryolite has decreased. At the same time, the enthusiasm of downstream buyers for high priced cryolite is weak. Some companies have lowered their prices to promote shipments. However, due to the tight availability of raw materials, cost pressure support for cryolite enterprises still exists. Most companies have firm and stable quotes, and the market for cryolite is watching and consolidating. As of January 7th, the ex factory quotation for cryolite in Shandong region is 7000-8600 yuan/ton; The ex factory price of cryolite in Henan region is between 7000 and 8700 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 300 yuan/ton within the range.

 

The upstream fluorite market trend has declined, with an average market price of 3431.25 yuan/ton on January 7th, a decrease of 2.83% compared to the price of 3531.25 yuan/ton on January 1st. The tight exploitation of upstream mines and the shortage of raw materials have limited the production of fluorite enterprises, and some manufacturers have limited production. Due to the impact of low temperature, rain, and snow weather in the north, some manufacturers have maintained low production levels. As the end of the year approaches, some small factories have engaged in low-priced inventory clearance, resulting in a decrease in fluorite prices. At the same time, the downstream market is weak, with poor procurement, and a downward trend in the fluorite market, which has a negative impact on the cryolite market.

 

Market forecast: Ice crystal raw materials are tight, enterprise cost support still exists, ice crystal manufacturers are operating at high prices, downstream purchasing enthusiasm is not high, market trading atmosphere is weak, and upstream prices continue to decline. There is more bearish sentiment in the market, and the downward momentum of ice crystal prices is increasing. It is expected that the ice crystal market will consolidate in the later stage, with slight price fluctuations. In the future, attention will be paid to upstream price changes and downstream follow-up.

 

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Product name: Sulfur

 

Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid)

Latest price: On January 8th, the average sulfur price in East China was 926.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.55% compared to the previous working day of 1013.33 yuan/ton.

 

Analysis: The sulfur market in East China has experienced a broad decline, with normal operation of on-site sulfur plants and sufficient supply of goods in the market. However, the utilization rate of downstream plant capacity has decreased, weakening the enthusiasm for sulfur procurement. Market trading has been weak, and sulfur refinery shipments have been poor. At the same time, port prices have continued to decline, which has a negative impact on the spot market. Market bearish sentiment is shrouded, and in order to stimulate shipments, refinery prices have been significantly reduced at the beginning of the week.

 

Market forecast: There is sufficient supply of goods on the supply side, weak downstream demand, and a clear trend of oversupply on the market. It is expected that the short-term sulfur market will be weak and consolidating.

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1、 Price trend

 

Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid)

The year 2023 has come to a successful end. Looking at the development of the titanium dioxide market this year, according to commodity data monitoring, the overall price of titanium dioxide in 2023 has increased. At the beginning of the year, the average price of domestic titanium dioxide was 15933.33 yuan/ton, and at the end of the year, the average price was 16483.33 yuan/ton. The price increased within the year, with a magnitude of 3.45%.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

Product Market

 

Looking at the market development in 2023, the titanium dioxide market shows an M-shaped trend. In the first quarter, titanium dioxide companies had good market confidence and prices increased. In the second quarter, cost support weakened, demand was average, and prices were lowered. In the third quarter, Longqi issued a letter announcing a rise, indicating a positive market and active investment sentiment, resulting in an increase in prices. In the fourth quarter, the domestic terminal market remained sluggish, with market prices falling.

 

The first quarter is recovering in January. Cost support was good in February, downstream demand improved, and prices rose. In March, on-site inventory was low, while exports were good, and prices continued to rise. The cumulative increase from January to March was 7.43%. As of the end of March, domestic quotations for rutile type titanium dioxide are mostly between 16500 and 18500 yuan/ton; The quotation for rutile titanium dioxide is around 14500-15000 yuan/ton.

 

In the second quarter, cost support weakened from April to May, demand was average, and prices were lowered. In June, there was a stalemate between upstream and downstream markets, and the market was cautious in trading. Prices remained stable for the time being. The cumulative decline from April to June was 5.74%. As of the end of June, domestic prices for rutile type titanium dioxide are mostly between 15500 and 17200 yuan/ton; The quotation for rutile titanium dioxide is around 13500-14000 yuan/ton.

 

In the third quarter, manufacturers had more orders on hand, and on-site supply was slightly tight. In August, Longqi issued a letter announcing an increase, and the focus of new transaction prices shifted upwards. The cumulative increase from 7 to 9 is 7.23%. As of the end of September, domestic prices for rutile type titanium dioxide are mostly between 16700 and 18600 yuan/ton; The quotation for rutile titanium dioxide is around 15500 yuan/ton; The quotation for chlorinated titanium dioxide is 19600 yuan/ton.

 

In the fourth quarter, the domestic terminal market was sluggish, with poor performance in new orders in October. The titanium dioxide market is about to enter the off-season, and traders are more flexible in their transactions, resulting in an increase in low-priced supply in the market. At the end of November, Longbai Group’s new order price was reduced by 1000 yuan/ton. Prices continue to decline. The cumulative decline from 10 to 12 is 4.72%. As of the end of December, domestic quotations for rutile type titanium dioxide are mostly between 16000-17600 yuan/ton; The quotation for rutile titanium dioxide is around 14500-15000 yuan/ton.

 

Import and export data

 

According to customs data, from January to November 2023, China imported approximately 73300 tons of titanium dioxide, a year-on-year decrease of 40.46%, and the import volume decreased by 49800 tons. The decrease in the import volume of titanium dioxide is mainly due to the weak domestic market, limited demand for titanium dioxide, and high cost pressure on enterprises.

According to customs data, the cumulative export of titanium dioxide from China from January to November 2023 was about 1.4983 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 17.14%, and the export volume increased by about 219200 tons. The steady increase in export share is beneficial for the new production capacity of titanium dioxide. In addition, the withdrawal of titanium dioxide production capacity from the international market is more favorable for domestic titanium dioxide exports. In the future, titanium dioxide exports will continue to steadily increase.

 

Production capacity and output

 

According to publicly available data, the cumulative production of titanium dioxide in China from January to November 2023 was 3.821 million tons, an increase of 7.16% year-on-year, with an increase of approximately 255200 tons in production. It is expected that the annual production of titanium dioxide will be over 4.2 million tons in 2023.

 

Downstream terminal

 

From January to November, the national real estate development investment was 10404.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.4%, of which residential investment was 7885.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.0%.

 

From January to November, the construction area of housing by real estate development enterprises was 8313.45 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 7.2%. Among them, the residential construction area was 58.5309 million square meters, a decrease of 7.6%. The newly constructed area of housing is 87.456 million square meters, a decrease of 21.2%. Among them, the newly constructed residential area was 63.737 million square meters, a decrease of 21.5%. The completed area of houses is 652.37 million square meters, an increase of 17.9%. Among them, the completed residential area was 47.581 million square meters, an increase of 18.5%.

 

From January to November, the sales area of commercial housing was 1005.09 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 8.0%, with residential sales area decreasing by 7.3%. The sales revenue of commercial housing reached 10531.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.2%, including a 4.3% decrease in residential sales.

 

At the end of November, the unsold area of commercial housing was 653.85 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 18.0%. Among them, the unsold residential area increased by 20.4%.

 

From January to November, real estate development enterprises received 11704.4 billion yuan in funds, a year-on-year decrease of 13.4%. Among them, domestic loans amounted to 1422.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.8%; Utilizing foreign investment of 4.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 35.1%; Self raised funds of 3850.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 20.3%; Deposit and advance payment of 3958.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.9%; Personal mortgage loans amounted to 1998.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.1%.

 

In November, the Real Estate Development Prosperity Index (referred to as the “National Housing Prosperity Index”) was 93.42.

 

Overall, the investment confidence of real estate companies is still weak this year, and the industry’s available funds have not improved. As the central bank frequently voiced support for the reasonable financing needs of real estate enterprises at the end of November. In late December, Beijing and Shanghai will respectively reduce the down payment ratio for home purchases and adjust the standard for ordinary housing. The future market expectation may improve, and the cash flow of real estate companies will improve, providing room for easing the industry’s financial pressure. The growth rate of development investment will reverse and expand the decline.

 

3、 Future Market Forecast

1. The new housing sales market will still face significant pressure in 2024. If the expectations of the real estate market improve in the future, the cash flow of real estate companies will improve. Coupled with favorable factors such as the renovation of old residential areas and the renovation of urban villages, it will bring certain benefits to the titanium dioxide market, and the sales scale may achieve a slight growth.

 

2. The Chinese titanium dioxide market has seen an increase in new production capacity. Public data shows that the domestic titanium dioxide production capacity is expected to reach 6 million tons in 2024, with monthly production exceeding 500000 tons. The international market share is steadily increasing, with an expected export volume of 1.63 million tons of titanium dioxide in 2023 and 1.8 million tons in 2024. The steady increase in export share in the future is beneficial for the new production capacity of titanium dioxide. In addition, the withdrawal of titanium dioxide production capacity from the international market is more favorable for domestic titanium dioxide exports. In the future, titanium dioxide exports will continue to steadily increase.

 

3. The domestic supply of raw material titanium concentrate is still in a tight situation, and the price continues to operate at a high level, providing strong support for titanium dioxide powder in terms of cost.

 

In summary, titanium dioxide enterprises will still face significant pressure in 2024, as the rate of capacity increase may exceed demand.

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1、 Trend analysis

 

According to the monitoring of nickel prices by Business Society, the average spot nickel market price on the 3rd was 130050 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.04% from the previous trading day.

 

US bond yields rose, the US dollar rebounded, and metals generally closed lower under pressure. The continuous release of new production capacity for nickel intermediate products and nickel iron in China and Indonesia, the maintenance of excess supply in the nickel market, and the increasing accumulation of LME nickel inventories have limited the extent of price rebound. Recently, nickel sulfate prices have stopped falling and stabilized, and stainless steel prices have rebounded weakly supported by expectations of restocking. The disturbance of nickel surplus and the pressure of accumulated inventory have increased, but post holiday bargain hunting and restocking transactions have warmed up, putting pressure on the rebound of nickel prices. Expected short-term low volatility trend of nickel.

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