According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the domestic price of LLDPE (7042) was 8237 yuan/ton on January 1, and the average price on January 30 was 8257 yuan/ton, with a 0.24% increase in quotation during this period.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic price of LDPE (2426H) was 9082 yuan/ton on January 1st, and the average price on January 30th was 9200 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.29% during the period.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic price of HDPE (5000S) was 8500 yuan/ton on January 1st, and the average price on January 30th was 8437 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.74% during the period.

In January, polyethylene generally showed a decline followed by an increase, with LDPE showing a significant increase, while HDPE prices remained stable after mid month. After New Year’s Day, petrochemical enterprises have accumulated inventory, and supply side pressure still exists, suppressing the narrow fluctuation and decline of the polyethylene market. After mid month, the futures market has strengthened, driving a slight increase in polyethylene spot prices. Positive factors include a rebound in crude oil prices, expectations for a domestic interest rate cut, and the approaching Spring Festival with demand for restocking in the market, which has led to a narrow upward trend in the polyethylene market.

After the decline at the beginning of the month, polyethylene futures have shown a strong trend, which is beneficial for the spot market. On January 30th, the opening price of the polyethylene l2405 contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange was 8314 yuan, and the closing price was 8264 yuan, a decrease of 24 yuan. The highest price was 8330 yuan, and the lowest was 8261 yuan, a decrease of 0.29%.

The pressure on polyethylene supply is still on, and as the Spring Festival approaches, downstream factories are gradually taking holidays, resulting in weaker demand; It is expected that polyethylene will undergo a narrow adjustment in operation before the Spring Festival, with limited upward space.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of January 29th, the average price of melamine enterprises was 7475.00 yuan/ton, which is unchanged from the price on January 1st.

The market price of melamine remained stable and fluctuated in January. In the first half of the month, the price of raw material urea decreased, cost support weakened, and the industry’s capacity utilization rate was around 70%. Downstream buying enthusiasm slowed down, with rigid demand mainly following up. The market atmosphere was flat, and some companies lowered prices to attract orders. In the second half of the month, the cost impact was average, with some companies shutting down their equipment for maintenance. As downstream stocking gradually followed up, manufacturers still received orders, and dealers flexibly quoted prices based on their own situation. Some companies raised prices, and towards the end of the month, the market remained stable and wait-and-see, with a general market atmosphere.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the reference price of urea on January 26th was 2416.67, a decrease of 2.75% compared to January 1st (2485.00).

Melamine analysts from Business Society believe that the current fundamental impact is limited, and companies mainly execute advance orders. It is expected that the melamine market will remain stable in the short term, and more attention needs to be paid to market news guidance.

TDI, also known as toluene diisocyanate, is a colorless, transparent or slightly yellow liquid that is an organic compound with a strong irritant gas. TDI is one of the most important diisocyanate raw materials for polyurethane resin. 70% of TDI is used to prepare polyurethane soft foam and its products, while the rest is used in coatings, sealants, elastomers, etc.

2023 TDI price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the TDI market experienced a wide range of fluctuations in 2023, with a significant decline in price trends. At the beginning of the year, the average TDI market price was 18800.00 yuan/ton, and at the end of the year, the average price was 16800.00 yuan/ton. Within the year, the price decreased by 2000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.64%. The highest point of the annual price was 20966.67 yuan/ton in early February, and the lowest point was 16000.00 yuan/ton in early June, with a maximum amplitude of 23.69% within the year.

2023 TDI Market Review

The price trend of TDI in 2023 is fluctuating and falling, which can be roughly divided into three stages:

From January to March, TDI prices first rose and then fell. As January approaches the Spring Festival holiday, downstream stocking demand increases, and TDI prices rise. After the year, downstream terminal production resumes, sponge prices rise, and demand is positive for the TDI market. In addition, the decrease in overseas TDI market production capacity leads to an increase in export demand. Supported by multiple positive factors, TDI prices have risen strongly to the highest level of prices this year; Starting from mid to late February, the enthusiasm for terminal procurement has weakened, downstream demand has been weak, market inquiries have been sluggish, suppliers have been reluctant to raise prices, and TDI prices have fluctuated downward.

From April to May, the price trend once again showed a trend of first rising and then falling. The supply of goods in the TDI market is filling slowly, and prices are constantly rising. In addition, the news of the restart of the Gansu Yinguang device and the expected start of the Fujian Wanhua device have failed, exacerbating the tight spot situation. Suppliers have released news of support for the market, and the trade market follows the guidance of the news. TDI offers continue to rise; Afterwards, the market saw a bearish atmosphere and the TDI price plummeted.

From June to December, the TDI market showed an M-shaped oscillation. At this stage, TDI prices maintain a range of fluctuations, and there is a clear supply-demand game on the market. Supplier’s device load reduction, shutdown and other messages are released, and TDI quotation is raised; The maintenance equipment has been restarted, the supply of goods has entered the market, and the demand side has gradually taken the lead, resulting in a decrease in TDI prices; Afterwards, market trading increased, and suppliers supported the market and rose; As demand weakens and the terminal market enters the off-season, trading is weak, and TDI prices are simultaneously decreasing.

Fundamental analysis

Supply side:

In terms of supply, domestic production capacity continued to increase from 2018 to 2022, with a synchronous increase in production. In 2022, production weakened compared to the previous year. By 2023, Gansu Yinguang, which had been parked for a long time, resumed operation, and TDI supply increased again, with an operating capacity of 1.48 million tons.

From the global distribution of TDI production capacity, China has the largest TDI production capacity, followed by Europe and the Americas. High production capacity also means that China’s TDI exports account for a relatively large proportion.

Demand side:

From the comparison chart of TDI production and apparent consumption from 2018 to 2023, it can be seen that the domestic TDI apparent consumption is much lower than the annual production, and the TDI external dependence is relatively low. In 2023, TDI apparent consumption increased by 8.3% year-on-year, while self-sufficiency rate decreased by 0.32% compared to the previous year.

Import and export:

China is a net exporter of TDI. In recent years, China’s TDI production has steadily increased, and its export volume is also further increasing. From the TDI import and export data from 2017 to 2023, it can be seen that China’s TDI export volume far exceeds its import volume, and the import volume is showing a downward trend. In 2023, China exported a total of 250500 tons of TDI products, a year-on-year decrease of 24.91%. Exports continued to decline compared to previous years, which is closely related to the weak demand in recent years.

Future market forecast

In summary, the expected production capacity of TDI in 2024 may increase, and the demand side has not changed much compared to this year. The maintenance and restart of TDI equipment by suppliers in 2024 may be the main factors affecting price changes. Based on the supply and demand game on the market, it is expected that the TDI market prices will continue to fluctuate weakly in 2024.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of toluene has recently risen due to cost support (1.5-1.26). On January 26th, the benchmark price of toluene was 6960 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.19% from 6680 yuan/ton on January 26th.

International crude oil prices fluctuate higher, with support from toluene cost and external prices

Recently (1.5-1.26), international crude oil prices have risen due to factors such as the Red Sea situation, which has provided short-term support for the cost of toluene. As of January 26th, WTI03 contract settlement is $77.36 per barrel; Brent 04 contract settlement is $81.96 per barrel. With a slight rebound in crude oil prices, the price of toluene in Asia has rebounded, providing some support for the domestic market. As of January 26, February, the CFR China LC90 day toluene price was between 860-862 US dollars/ton.

Starting production of xylene temporarily stabilizes toluene and obtains necessary support

The domestic supply of xylene is relatively normal, with a domestic PX operating rate of over 80%. A 750000 ton unit of Pengzhou Petrochemical has restarted, but some units are still undergoing maintenance. The spot supply is normal. This week, the international crude oil price trend has fluctuated, and the external PX price has not changed much. As of the 26th, the closing price in Asia is 1000-1002 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 1041-1043 US dollars/ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX plants in Asia has remained high. Overall, the operating rate of xylene plants in the Asian region is nearly 80%. The supply of PX goods in the Asian region is normal, and the price range of crude oil has fluctuated recently. The domestic xylene market price trend is temporarily stable.

Small fluctuations in the domestic mixed blending market, weak support for toluene demand

Since the fourth quarter, the domestic mixed blending market has entered a low season, with weak downstream inquiries and weak demand for toluene mixed blending. As of late January, the operating rate of refinery facilities nationwide was around 7.3%.

Continuous increase in toluene port inventory and increased supply pressure

During the off-season of demand, domestic toluene port inventories have significantly increased. As of January 26th, toluene inventories in East China were 90000 tons and in South China were 14000 tons, a significant increase from 81000 tons in early January. This has increased the pressure on toluene supply. The domestic production of toluene continued to increase compared to the beginning of the month, and as of late January, the production rate was around 740%.

Market forecast: Currently, international crude oil prices are fluctuating widely, with support for the cost of toluene; Secondly, downstream demand support during the off-season is relatively weak; Finally, the inventory of toluene at the port increased and there was a slight increase in production, but the pressure on the supply side of toluene remains. With weak supply and demand support and cost support, it is expected that the toluene market will experience narrow fluctuations and consolidation in the later period.

Introduction: Are you very familiar with this kind of life scene: wearing sportswear containing spandex, driving a new energy lithium battery car, using biodegradable plastic bags to purchase goods at the supermarket… These seemingly unrelated items have one thing in common, which is that the raw materials all contain a special substance – BDO (1,4-butanediol). As an important basic organic and fine chemical raw material, BDO can be used to produce various products such as spandex, cosmetics, biodegradable materials, lithium battery solvents, etc. It is one of the fastest-growing chemical products in the world. Against the backdrop of “dual carbon” and “plastic restrictions”, there is strong demand for biodegradable materials, new energy batteries, and other fields, driving the basic raw material 1,4-butanediol (BDO) to become an investment hotspot, and BDO plans to significantly expand production capacity.

Firstly, let’s review the trend of the BDO market in 2023. The domestic BDO market experienced a high decline in 2023, with an average price of 9780 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year and 9535 yuan/ton at the end of the year, a decrease of 2.50%. From the BDO price trend chart, it can be seen that the highest price of BDO in 2023 occurred at the end of February, with a highest price of 14033 yuan/ton. The lowest price of BDO occurred at the end of the year, with a lowest price of 9535 yuan/ton and a maximum amplitude of 47.17%. Overall, the domestic BDO trend fluctuated sharply in the first half of the year, with the second half experiencing mainly lower fluctuations.

Specifically, at the beginning of 2023, driven by the high prices of equipment maintenance and bidding by production enterprises, as well as the gradual recovery of demand and strong overall support from downstream industries, the market mostly operated upwards; Traders have limited supply of goods and most of them are closed without reporting. In addition, the good export market has driven the overall upward trend of the domestic BDO market. As major production enterprises restart their facilities one after another, there is a significant increase in supply side growth, and there is a bearish situation at the BDO supply level. Downstream industry costs are under pressure, and the BDO market is “bottoming out”.

In the second quarter, in order to meet the production needs of the industrial chain, some external procurement bidding prices were relatively high, which once boosted the market atmosphere. On the eve of Labor Day, some downstream companies are chasing prices to stock up, and holding manufacturers have a strong willingness to sell at low prices, resulting in a strong upward market focus. With the restart of maintenance equipment, the supply has increased, and the downstream NMP industry has followed the downward trend of the raw material market. The TPU and PU slurry load in the polyurethane field is around 40-50%. The enthusiasm for the PBAT industry to start construction is not high, which suppresses the enthusiasm for raw material procurement.

In the third quarter, the BDO market was mainly constrained by narrow consolidation of supply and demand contradictions, with enterprise equipment maintenance being the main focus and operating rates at a low level. However, the peak demand season of “Golden September and Silver October” did not occur, and the market center of gravity was operating at the lower end. In the fourth quarter, the stable operation of new production capacity devices and the gradual launch of new production capacity products in the market have resulted in a bearish market mentality, with no positive news on the demand side. As a result, the BDO market price has fallen to a low level in recent years.

On the supply side, in recent years, BDO has added more production capacity, and the industry will usher in a rapid expansion cycle. In 2022, China’s BDO production capacity was 2.763 million tons. It is expected that from 2024 to 2025, there will be approximately 1.6 million tons and 500000 tons of new BDO production capacity with high certainty in China. By the end of 2024, the domestic BDO production capacity will reach 6 million tons. The rapid expansion of production capacity on the supply side will exacerbate the supply-demand contradiction and have a negative impact on the supply side.

According to international standards, a capacity utilization rate exceeding 90% is considered insufficient capacity, 79% -90% is considered normal, below 79% is considered overcapacity, and below 75% is considered severe overcapacity. According to data from Business Society, the operating rate of the BDO industry will remain at 60-70% in 2023, indicating severe overcapacity in the industry. Some companies are about to go public and strive to fully connect the four major industrial chains from BDO to spandex, lithium battery solvents, biodegradable materials and engineering plastics, and pharmaceutical intermediates. The continuous improvement of integrated projects in the entire industrial chain will effectively improve the overcapacity situation in the BDO industry.

On the demand side, downstream BDO mainly includes tetrahydrofuran (THF), polybutylene terephthalate (PBT), polybutylene terephthalate (PBAT), polybutylene succinate (PBS), and γ- Products such as butyrolactone (GBL). THF/PTMEG (polytetrahydrofuran) is mainly used for the production of spandex and is the main downstream application area of BDO, accounting for nearly 52% of consumption. Engineering plastic PBT and high boiling organic solvent GBL are currently the other two main consumption areas of BDO, accounting for 24.5% and 11.8% respectively.

The BDO plant that has been put into operation currently mainly uses the acetylene aldehyde method, accounting for 93.62% of the production capacity. The acetylene aldehyde method uses calcium carbide and methanol as raw materials, and producing 1 ton of BDO requires 1.15 tons of calcium carbide and 0.91 tons of methanol. The BDO production cost formula is: 1.15 calcium carbide+0.91 methanol+3500 unit labor. As of the end of 2023, the price of calcium carbide calculated by Business Society was 2983 yuan/ton, and the price of methanol was 2500 yuan/ton (slightly lower in the northwest region). The calculated production cost of BDO was about 9200 yuan/ton. Currently, the production enterprise’s external quotation is close to the cost line, and profits are severely compressed.

At present, the BDO price has fallen to the cost line, and the operating rate of the equipment remains at 60%, resulting in severe overcapacity. Some companies are about to go public and are striving to fully connect the four major industrial chains from BDO to spandex, lithium battery solvents, biodegradable materials and engineering plastics, and pharmaceutical intermediates. The continuous improvement of integrated projects in the entire industrial chain will effectively improve the overcapacity situation in the BDO industry. It is expected that the sluggish BDO market will change in the near future.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the market for refined and hydrogenated naphtha has recently risen. As of January 24th, the mainstream ex factory price of refined and hydrogenated naphtha in China was 7981.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.98% from January 15th at 7904 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price of refined and hydrogenated naphtha is around 7900-8000 yuan/ton.

Recently, the market for locally refined straight run naphtha has continued to rise. As of January 24th, the mainstream ex factory price of domestically refined straight run naphtha was 7909 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.54% from January 15th’s 7789.00 yuan/ton price. The actual transaction price of locally refined straight run naphtha is around 7800-7900 yuan/ton.

In recent times, the demand for ethylene and reforming at the local refining terminal has been released, and refineries are actively pushing for an increase, with the main focus on transaction demand; At present, the overall weakness of the gasoline and diesel market has limited support for the naphtha market.

Upstream: Recently, the international crude oil market has been fluctuating and rising. On the one hand, the geopolitical situation has been affected by disturbances, and in addition, the production of the Shalala oil field in Libya has decreased, causing market concerns about supply issues. On the other hand, Saudi Arabia’s comprehensive reduction in crude oil prices has raised concerns in the market about future energy demand, as well as increased production from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+). In addition, the decline in US crude oil and distillate inventories has led to an increase in gasoline inventories.

Downstream: According to monitoring by Business Society, the market for toluene and mixed xylene continues to rise. As of January 24th, the price of toluene is 6890 yuan/ton, while the price of mixed xylene is 7280 yuan/ton; The PX price trend is stable, and the domestic PX operating rate remains above 80%. Downstream support for the naphtha market.

Market forecast: The international crude oil market is fluctuating and rising, with cost support in the naphtha market; The local refined naphtha market is expected to experience a slight increase in the near future, as refineries are actively driving up demand for ethylene and reforming at the local refined naphtha terminal.

Price trend in 2023:

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the average price of domestic melamine enterprises was 8233.33 yuan/ton on January 1, 2023. As of December 31, the average price of domestic melamine enterprises was 7475 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 9.21% in the year’s market.

In 2023, the melamine market first fell and then rose, with an overall downward trend.

In the first half of the year, there was strong cost support in January, with a large number of melamine maintenance devices and decent performance in the export market. However, domestic demand remained average before and after the Spring Festival, and the market remained stable and observed consolidation. In February, the melamine market fluctuated narrowly and rose, with raw material urea showing a “v” – shaped trend, which had a certain impact on the melamine market trend. Maintenance equipment gradually resumed, and downstream demand fell short of expectations. From March to June, the price of raw material urea fluctuated and fell, with weakened cost support and sufficient market supply. However, downstream demand was poor, and rigid demand followed suit. The melamine market continued to decline.

In the second half of the year, from July to August, the price of raw material urea increased, cost support increased, industry capacity utilization decreased, and spot supply was tight, supporting the rise of melamine prices. Downstream demand mainly followed suit. In mid to late September, downstream demand was weak, and new orders in the market were not well executed. Some enterprises resumed production, increased supply, and the mentality of operators was insufficient. Holders lowered prices to attract orders. In October, the market price of melamine remained stable with minor fluctuations, and holders followed the market to ship. In November, enterprise quotations first rose and then fell, with average cost support in the middle and late stages. The utilization rate of melamine production capacity was high, and domestic downstream demand was weak. The cost support in December is still acceptable, with a large number of parking devices, concentrated downstream hoarding, active entry into the market for purchasing, and strong price operation.

Market forecast for 2024:

Supply side:

In recent years, the production capacity growth rate of China’s melamine industry has slowed down compared to the previous period, with a slight increase in industry production capacity in 2023. The melamine market is sluggish in 2023, with limited profits and reduced production enthusiasm. Overall production in 2023 has slightly decreased compared to 2022, and it is expected that the melamine industry will continue to operate at a low level in 2024.

Demand side: Melamine has a wide demand side and is mainly used for boards, melamine powder, and impregnated paper. It can also be used in the production of coatings, resins, and flame retardant materials. It can also be used as anti folding and anti shrinkage treatment agents for textiles, synthetic fireproof layer bonding, fixing or hardening agents for waterproofing agents, etc. It is expected that downstream demand will remain relatively stable in 2024, with a focus on continuing to buy in demand.

Import and export: According to customs data, the total import volume of melamine in China in 2023 was 265928 kilograms, a year-on-year decrease of 29.34%. In 2023, the total export volume of melamine in China was 476452855 kilograms, a year-on-year decrease of 10.78%.

Cost side: Raw material urea: According to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, the mainstream market price of urea in Shandong Province has shown an overall downward trend in 2023. The starting price was 2698.00 yuan/ton, and the ending price was 2485.00 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year decline of 7.89%.

From the above figure, it can be seen that the price trend of melamine in 2023 is roughly similar to the trend of raw material urea. It is expected that the price changes in the melamine industry will still be greatly affected by the upstream urea industry in 2024.

Comprehensive prediction:

In summary, the changes in the supply and demand pattern of the melamine industry in 2024 may be relatively limited. It is expected that the melamine market will follow the trend of raw material urea prices in 2024, and more attention still needs to be paid to export demand, related policies, and other factors.

Introduction: Cyclohexanone is an important intermediate in organic synthesis. The greatest use of cyclohexanone is in the production of caprolactam and adipic acid, which are important monomers in the production of nylon, nylon 66, and other synthetic resins. In the downstream distribution of cyclohexanone, the chemical fiber industry accounts for over 90% of the total production.

Firstly, let’s review the trend of the cyclohexanone market in 2023. The domestic cyclohexanone market experienced severe fluctuations in 2023, with an overall “M” shaped price curve. The average price at the beginning of the year was 9210 yuan/ton, and the average price at the end of the year was 9450 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year increase of 2.61%. From the price trend chart of cyclohexanone, it can be seen that the highest point of cyclohexanone price in 2023 occurred in September, with a highest price of 10321 yuan/ton. The lowest point of cyclohexanone price occurred in early June, with a lowest price of 7994 yuan/ton and a maximum amplitude of 29.11%.

In the cost composition of the traditional cyclohexanone process route, pure benzene accounts for 53%, and the market trend of pure benzene directly affects the price trend of cyclohexanone. The cyclohexanone plant is mainly equipped with downstream production of caprolactam, which is one of the main downstream sources of cyclohexanone. The market trend of caprolactam also has a significant impact on the market trend of cyclohexanone. From the comparison chart of the price trends of pure benzene cyclohexanone and cyclohexanone caprolactam in Business Society, it can be seen that the market trend of cyclohexanone in 2023 is roughly the same as that of pure benzene and caprolactam.

There were two significant fluctuations in the cyclohexanone market in 2023. The first was a significant decline that began in mid May, with a decline of 15.18%. The main reason is the weak decline of raw material pure benzene, lack of cost support, increased supply of market goods, intensified industry competition, and weak downstream demand, strong resistance to high prices. Manufacturers are offering discounts to sell, resulting in a decline in transactions. Another time was a significant rebound from early July to mid September, with an increase of 27.95%. The main reason is that the market price of raw material pure benzene continues to rise, with strong cost support. The supply of cyclohexanone products is relatively low. Driven by costs, manufacturers are reluctant to sell at low prices and actively explore price increases. As prices rise downstream, the prices of the entire industry chain products have increased to varying degrees. From this, it can be seen that the market trend of pure benzene is influenced by the cyclohexanone market. In 2024, it is necessary to closely monitor the price trends of pure benzene and caprolactam.

In terms of imports and exports, according to customs data statistics, the overall export volume of cyclohexanone from China showed an increasing trend from 2018 to 2023. The increase in cyclohexanone exports in recent years is mainly due to the continuous increase in domestic cyclohexanone production capacity supply, and the supply growth rate is significantly faster than the demand growth rate. On the other hand, in the context of a shift in supply and demand patterns, the domestic price of cyclohexanone has led to a reduction in industry profits and a relative advantage in price. Therefore, the overall trend of cyclohexanone exports is increasing. Affected by weak global demand in 2023, overseas facilities are mostly supporting and production is stable. The downstream solvent market demand is average, and the export of cyclohexanone has decreased to a certain extent. In 2024, it is still necessary to pay more attention to the supply situation of domestic and foreign enterprises.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the domestic production capacity of cyclohexanone is about 7.14 million tons, and the overall operating load of the industry is currently around 60%, which is at a relatively low level. The main production enterprises have limited product supply due to equipment maintenance. In 2024, domestic cyclohexanone production still needs to pay more attention to industry operating rate information.

In the future, the main influencing factors on the price of cyclohexanone are upstream and downstream products and industry operations. In 2024, it is necessary to pay more attention to the traditional peak season of “Golden Three Silver Four” and “Golden Nine Silver Ten”, as well as the trend of raw material pure benzene under the influence of crude oil market.

Recent price trends of tetrahydrofuran

Recently, there has been an increase in maintenance of 1,4-butanediol units, limited spot production, an upward shift in market focus, increased cost support, and a slight increase in domestic tetrahydrofuran market prices. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of tetrahydrofuran in the mainstream domestic market increased from 13125 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 13150 yuan/ton at the end of the week, an increase of 0.19%, and the weekend price increased by 2.41% year-on-year.

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream domestic tetrahydrofuran distributors have slightly increased this week, with average inventory and strong reluctance from traders to sell.

From the perspective of upstream raw materials, the market for 1,4-butanediol has slightly increased this week, with prices rising from 9542.86 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 9550 yuan/ton at the end of the week, an increase of 0.07%, and a year-on-year decrease of 15.41% in weekend prices. Recently, there has been an increase in the maintenance of 1,4-butanediol units, with limited spot production by enterprises. The intention of suppliers to maintain prices has continued, and the market focus has shifted upwards, leading to increased cost support and a positive impact on the price of tetrahydrofuran.

From the perspective of downstream demand, the spandex market prices have stabilized at a low level this week. The price of spandex is 31500 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year decrease of 10.32% over the weekend. The quotation from the spandex factory has been weakly adjusted, and the manufacturer’s shipment is average. They are cautious about raw material procurement, and are currently waiting and waiting for the Spring Festival stocking.

In the future, in late January, the domestic tetrahydrofuran market may experience a slight fluctuation and decline. Although the upstream 1,4-butanediol market has slightly increased, the support is limited. The downstream spandex market is consolidating at a low level, with a cautious attitude towards raw material procurement and a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. Business Society’s tetrahydrofuran analyst believes that in the short term, the domestic tetrahydrofuran market may experience slight fluctuations and declines due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.

441 # Overview of Silicon Price Trends

This week, the price of metal silicon # 441 slightly declined. As of January 19th, the average price of domestic metal silicon market was 15390 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.09% compared to the previous week. With the increase of silicon metal production reduction, silicon factories have started to resume production and supply has resumed. At the same time, as the holiday approaches, downstream short-term essential procurement has been basically completed, and the market spot sentiment has cooled down. As a result, market transactions have weakened, leading to a weakening of spot prices.

The price of 441 # silicon in various regions on the 19th is as follows:

The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in the Huangpu Port area is 15500~15600 yuan/ton, with an average price of 15550 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in Tianjin Port area is 15500~15600 yuan/ton, with an average of 15550 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in Kunming area is 15200-15400 yuan/ton, with an average price of 15300 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in Sichuan region is 15200~15300 yuan/ton, with an average of 15250 yuan/ton; The price range of Shanghai # 441 metallic silicon is 16100~16200 yuan/ton, with an average price of 16150 yuan/ton.

The Factors Influencing the Price of Silicon Metal

In terms of supply:

As of January 19th, the number of furnaces opened this week was 301, an increase of 3 compared to last week. Among them, Yunnan and Fujian each increased by 2 units, Guizhou and Sichuan each decreased by 1 unit, Yunnan and Hunan each decreased by 2 units, and Chongqing increased by 1 unit. Recently, some silicon factories on the supply side have started resuming production, and some silicon factories in Chongqing and Yunnan have started production to deliver orders. However, according to the data as of the 11th, the number of weekly furnaces has increased.

In terms of inventory:

As of January 19th, the national social inventory of industrial silicon reached 351000 tons, a decrease of 3000 tons compared to the previous week. Among them, the social ordinary warehouse was 114000 tons, a decrease of 2000 tons compared to the previous week, and the social delivery warehouse was 237000 tons (including unregistered warehouse receipts), a decrease of 1000 tons compared to the previous week.

In terms of demand:

This week, the domestic polycrystalline silicon market continued to stabilize, and the mainstream range of single crystal dense materials with a current model of first-class solar energy has slipped to 52000 to 58000 yuan/ton. Due to seasonal reasons, downstream installed demand has decreased, and the recent increase in demand in the silicon material market has been insufficient. We need to continue to follow up, but the current price decline space is gradually narrowing, and it may stabilize in the later stage, but we have not seen any signs of rebound.

The prices of organic silicon and aluminum alloy have slightly increased. The domestic organic silicon DMC market price is referenced around 13940 yuan/ton, and the current quotation for aluminum alloy ADC12 is 20150 yuan/ton. The aluminum alloy market is stable, with aluminum alloy factories making small-scale purchases and placing appropriate inquiries for replenishment, resulting in an overall increase in demand.

Future Market Forecast

In summary, on the supply side, with some silicon factories resuming production, the spot sentiment in the market has cooled down. In addition, the disturbance in the north has not been eliminated due to the approaching holiday, and the cost pressure in the southwest region is low. The overall operating rate is still at a low level; On the demand side, downstream replenishment is basically coming to an end, and downstream procurement is mainly based on demand. Market transactions have weakened, and demand release is weak, but resilience still exists. The social inventory has slightly decreased, and the overall inventory pressure has been alleviated. At present, cost support is temporarily in place, and it is expected that industrial silicon will continue to operate in a weak and volatile manner next week. We will continue to monitor supply side disturbances and downstream replenishment progress before the Spring Festival.