1、 Price trend

According to data monitored by Business Society, the PVC spot market prices fluctuated and fell in November. On November 1st, the average price of PVC in China was 5844 yuan/ton. On November 29th, the average price was 5698 yuan/ton, and the price dropped by 2.5% during the month.

2、 Market analysis

The PVC spot market prices fluctuated and fell in November. In the first half of this month, the preference for futures market trends drove up the confidence in the spot market. PVC spot prices rose, but in the first half of the month, upstream calcium carbide market prices significantly declined, and the trading atmosphere on the exchange became weak, leading to a decline in market prices. In the middle of the month, be cautious and wait, as the PVC spot market lacks confidence and prices fluctuate and decrease. In the latter half of the month, the futures market was mainly in a downward trend, with the spot market being heavily suppressed and prices falling. Downstream demand for purchases was the main focus, with on-demand purchases available. As of now, the quotation range for PVC 5 type carbide materials in China is mostly around 5430-5870 yuan/ton.

On November 28th, international crude oil futures prices rose. The settlement price of the main WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $76.41 per barrel, with an increase of $1.55 or 2.1%. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures main contract was 81.47 yuan/barrel, an increase of 1.60 US dollars or 2.0%. The market expects that OPEC+, an oil producing country, may extend and deepen production cuts, leading to a rebound in oil prices.

In terms of calcium carbide, according to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region slightly decreased in November. The price of calcium carbide dropped from 2916.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 2900.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 0.57%, and a year-on-year decrease of 22.67% at the end of the month. The price of upstream raw material blue charcoal has slightly decreased, and the cost support for calcium carbide is insufficient. The downstream PVC and 1,4-butanediol markets have fluctuated and fallen, and downstream demand has weakened. In the future, the price of calcium carbide in the northwest region may experience a slight fluctuation and decline in mid to early December, with consolidation being the main trend.

3、 Future Market Forecast

PVC analysts from Business Society believe that the spot market price of PVC has fallen this month, and downstream demand is affected by the performance of the real estate data market, resulting in relatively weak market demand. In addition, the decline in carbide prices and poor performance of the futures market have limited support for the PVC spot market overall. It is expected that the PVC market will remain weak and stable in the short term.

The price of ethylene glycol fell in November

According to data from Business Society, on November 28th, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.73% from the beginning of the month. Prices in various regions are as follows:

The price range for spot goods executed by mainstream manufacturers in East China is between 4000 and 4250 yuan/ton; The spot price of ethylene glycol in the South China market is 4000 yuan/ton, while the mainstream spot manufacturers in Central China have a price range of 4000 yuan/ton for external execution; The mainstream manufacturers in North China offer a spot price of 4250 yuan/ton to the outside world.

On November 27th, the landed price of ethylene glycol in the Asian market in China was 477 US dollars per ton; The landed price in Southeast Asia is $485 per ton.

Ethylene glycol fundamentals

Device dynamics

The 1 million ton unit of Shenghong Refining and Chemical stopped operation last weekend, and the restart time is yet to be determined; The 150000 ton plant of Xinjiang Tianying was shut down on November 23, and the restart is yet to be determined; The 260000 ton plant of Inner Mongolia Jianyuan has gradually restarted recently, and it is expected to produce products in early December; The 300000 ton plant of Xinjiang Tianye was shut down on November 16th, and the restart is yet to be determined; The 300000 ton unit of Shanxi Meijin will be shut down on November 15th, expected to take about 20 days; A 600000 ton unit in Xinjiang is expected to be put into trial operation and the product is expected to be available by the end of the month.

Weakened cost support

On November 27th, the central parity rate (CFR) for Northeast Asia Ethylene Gold was $861 per ton, a decrease of $20 per ton from the central parity rate of $881 per ton at the beginning of the month (November 1st).

Downstream demand

The operating load of downstream polyester is relatively stable. On November 27th, the polyester operating rate was 88.72%, and the polyester factory load remained around 88%. On the terminal side, the operating load of the weaving machine is 85%, and the operating load of the elastic weaving machine is 91%. Both have increased compared to the previous period, mainly due to weather factors, which have led to an increase in demand for cold and warm orders.

High port inventory

As of November 27, 2023, the total spot inventory of ethylene glycol in the main port of East China was 1.1476 million tons, which is 1.0548 million tons higher than the total spot inventory of ethylene glycol in the main port of East China on October 23, an increase of 92800 tons. The port inventory is still relatively high.

Future market forecast

The reality of ethylene glycol supply and demand is loose, with high inventory, suppressing price increases. Currently, prices are low and cost support is strong. It is expected that the probability of maintaining a volatile sideways trend in the short term will increase, and the weak and volatile operation will continue at the end of the month.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of chlorinated paraffin has fallen this month. On November 1st, the average market price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 was 5733 yuan/ton. On November 27th, the average market price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 was 5533 yuan/ton. This month, the price of chlorinated paraffin decreased by 3.49%.

2、 Market analysis

Domestic chlorinated paraffin prices fell in November. In the first half of November, the price of chlorinated paraffin fluctuated and fell. Insufficient cost support, weak market demand, insufficient downstream inquiries, and a focus on rigid demand. Manufacturers and distributors often adopt a wait-and-see attitude. In the second half of November, the price of chlorinated paraffin remained stable. The price of raw material liquid wax has fallen, while the price of raw material liquid chlorine has risen first and then fallen, with average cost support. There is currently no significant improvement on the demand side, market trading is flat, and manufacturers are mainly stabilizing prices. As of November 27th, the ex factory price of 52 environmentally friendly chlorinated paraffins in Anhui region is about 5900 yuan/ton, and the ex factory price of 52 national standard chlorinated paraffins in Shandong region is about 5000-5400 yuan/ton.

According to the weekly ups and downs from August 28, 2023 to November 20, 2023, it can be seen that the domestic chlorinated paraffin cycle saw mixed ups and downs. There was a significant decline in November, with the largest decline being -1.78% in the week of November 13th.

In terms of raw material liquid wax, the price of liquid wax has fallen this month, and liquid wax fluctuates with the crude oil market. In terms of raw material liquid chlorine, the price of liquid chlorine rose first and then fell this month, with a fluctuating operation. The market trading is average, and the manufacturers have stable shipments.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society’s chlorinated paraffin analyst believes that the market for chlorinated paraffin raw materials has remained stable recently. At present, the raw material market is volatile, with average cost support. Downstream essential procurement, with relatively low market trading volume. It is expected that in the short term, the price of chlorinated paraffin will remain stable, with a focus on consolidation and operation.

This week, the market for epichlorohydrin saw a slight increase. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of November 24th, the average price quoted by epoxy chloropropane enterprises was 8075.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.62% compared to Monday’s price.

Price influencing factors:

Cost side: According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market has recently seen a narrow upward trend, with stable raw material glycerol prices as the main factor. The cost side is still supported by the epichlorohydrin market.

Supply and demand side: The utilization rate of production capacity on the supply side is relatively low, with manufacturers mainly delivering contracts and spot supply being insufficient, supporting the mentality of enterprises to raise prices. Downstream enterprises are observing the market demand and following up appropriately. The main downstream epoxy resin market is average, with limited support for the epichlorohydrin market. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the reference price of epoxy resin on November 24th was 13266.67, a decrease of 4.78% compared to November 1st (13933.33).

According to analysts from Business Society, in the short term, there is no pressure on the supply side to boost prices, but there is insufficient follow-up from the demand side, resulting in a stalemate in the market atmosphere. It is expected that the market for epichlorohydrin may consolidate and operate in the short term, and more attention still needs to be paid to market news guidance.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the monitoring of nickel prices by the Business Society, on the 23rd, the average spot market price of nickel was 12899.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.41% from the previous day and a year-on-year decrease of 37.05%.

The minutes of the November meeting of the Federal Reserve indicate that it will maintain restrictive interest rates and will act cautiously in the future, with the possibility of further interest rate hikes. After the data was released, the US dollar stopped falling and turned higher, while US stocks fell. The sales data of existing homes in the United States for October has been declining for five consecutive months, reaching a new low since 2010. The sales data of existing homes is often seen as an indicator of economic health, thereby putting pressure on non-ferrous metal prices. The nickel surplus continues, and due to the expansion of steel mills’ production reduction scale, the cost side nickel iron price weakens. The spot market atmosphere is pessimistic, and the downward space for stainless steel expands; After the recovery of profits in steel mills, some enterprises began to resume production. The high inventory of stainless steel and nickel iron links led to internal competition in the iron mills, which further led to the collapse of stainless steel costs and negative feedback on the industrial chain, bringing certain pressure to the nickel market. Nickel is expected to remain weak and volatile in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of cryolite in Henan has remained stable recently. On November 21, the average market price in Henan was 7775 yuan/ton, which is the same as the average price of 7775 yuan/ton on November 13, with a month on month decrease of 1.27%.

Recently, the market situation of cryolite has remained stable and wait-and-see. Upstream product prices have remained high and firm, while cost support for cryolite still exists. Manufacturers’ quotations remain stable, while downstream companies still have resistance towards high priced cryolite. They often follow up on demand when entering the market, and cryolite is affected by costs, maintaining stable shipments. The market supply and demand are deadlocked, and the cryolite market is operating on a wait-and-see basis. As of November 21st, the factory quotation for cryolite in Shandong region is 7000-8600 yuan/ton; The factory quotation for cryolite in Henan region is between 7200-8800 yuan/ton, and the price range remains unchanged.

The upstream fluorite market is firm and stable, with an average market price of 3700 yuan/ton on November 21, which is unchanged from the price of 3700 yuan/ton on November 13. The upstream mining of fluorite is tight, and the shortage of raw materials has restricted the operation of fluorite enterprises. The spot supply of fluorite continues to be tight, and the demand side refrigerant trend is temporarily stable. The downstream market is not good, and manufacturers ship according to demand. At the same time, with the temperature decreasing and the increase of rain and snow weather in the northern region, fluorite production is limited, which affects the stable operation of fluorite market prices and strong support for cryolite.

Future Market Forecast: Upstream spot prices continue to be tight, cryolite enterprises are under pressure in production, devices are operating at low loads, manufacturers’ inventory is not under pressure, cryolite prices are strong, and demand is mainly wait-and-see. Purchasing is rational, but due to strong cost support, there is insufficient room for cryolite prices to fall. It is expected that the short-term cryolite market will continue to operate on a wait-and-see basis, and attention will be paid to upstream price changes and downstream follow-up in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, TDI prices in East China fell first and then rose in mid November. On November 20th, the average market price in East China was 17100.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.19% compared to the price of 17133.33 yuan/ton on November 11th, and a decrease of 1.16% compared to the beginning of the month.

The domestic TDI market has been in a weak state this cycle, with prices falling first and then rising during the week. Prior to the 15th, the enthusiasm of domestic downstream market entry was lackluster, the market trading atmosphere was weak, the supply side news was quiet, the trade market mentality was pessimistic, and the shipment of cargo holders was not smooth, and the TDI offer continued to move downward; In the later stage, the news of the shutdown and lockdown of Shanghai’s large factory equipment was released, and the spot filling was tightened. The trading market, guided by supplier information, reported prices to stop falling and rebound. However, due to the still weak downstream purchasing sentiment and insufficient confidence among traders, the TDI trading center only slightly increased.

The price of upstream toluene has decreased, and the market situation has been weak during the cycle. On November 20th, the domestic average price of toluene was around 6800.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.32% compared to the price of 6890.00 yuan/ton on November 11th. The international crude oil price is weak and volatile, and the cost support for toluene has weakened. Downstream demand has entered the off-season, with weak market inquiries and insufficient demand support. In addition, due to the abundant supply of toluene, the toluene market has been weakened and consolidated.

After market analysis, TDI data analysts from the Business Agency believe that the supply of goods in the domestic TDI market is slow to fill, and traders have a strong intention to raise prices. However, downstream demand is flat, the market trading atmosphere is light, and TDI growth is limited. Under the supply and demand game, it is expected that the short-term TDI market will fluctuate and consolidate, and specific attention will be paid to downstream follow-up.

Price trend

In mid November, the domestic PA6 market rebounded in a narrow range, with some spot prices rising. According to data monitoring from Business News Agency, as of November 20th, the mixed benchmark price of PA6 in China was 14475 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.34% compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

From the above figure, it can be seen that the market price of caprolactam increased in mid November. The price of raw material pure benzene has increased, which is beneficial for cost support. Some enterprises have reduced the load of caprolactam units and reduced market supply. Downstream procurement is on demand, and the demand side is relatively stable. In the future, the supply of pure benzene and caprolactam is showing a rebound trend, and it is expected that the price of caprolactam may temporarily stabilize in the short term.

On the supply side:

In mid November, the load of PA6 production enterprises slightly increased, with an average operating rate of around 75% in the interval. The market supply is almost flat compared to the previous period, and there is ample supply of goods on the market. The inventory level has taken on the previous low level, and there has been no significant increase in supplier pressure. The support for PA6 spot goods still exists.

In terms of demand: Downstream, the load of the weaving and spinning industries has fluctuated slightly and remained stable, with an average load position of around 66% and 81%, respectively. In terms of terminal enterprises, their willingness to stock up in the middle of the year is average, with only some enterprises making pre orders, and overall, their acceptance of high priced goods is not good. Trading is concentrated near maintaining production demand, with replenishment prices mostly centered around the low end, and overall support for the demand side of PA6 chips is weak.

Future Market Forecast

In mid November, the PA6 market rebounded in a narrow range. The price of caprolactam has increased, and the cost support for PA6 has increased. The demand side is cautious in picking up goods, and market trading tends towards the low end. The domestic polymerization plant has seen a narrow increase in load, and the inventory position remains low. The polymerization plant has a strong willingness to raise prices. It is expected that the PA6 market will continue to consolidate in the short term.

According to the monitoring of Business Society, since November, the hydrogen peroxide market has continued to decline weakly, with a decline of over 21%. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 1150 yuan/ton. On November 17th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 900 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 21.74%.

market analysis

After November, the demand for terminal printing and papermaking decreased, and the hydrogen peroxide market continued to decline weakly, with the mainstream market price dropping to 900 yuan/ton. The average market price of hydrogen peroxide in Shandong region is 900 yuan/ton; The average market price of hydrogen peroxide in Hebei region is 850 yuan/ton; Hydrogen peroxide in Anhui region is 950 yuan/ton; The overall decline in the market compared to the beginning of the month is 150-200 yuan/ton.

Future prospects

Business Society Hydrogen Peroxide Analysts believe that the low season of terminal demand is expected to put pressure on the future hydrogen peroxide market.

Product name: isobutyraldehyde

Latest price (November 16th): 7683.33 yuan/ton

On November 16th, the domestic market price of isobutyraldehyde slightly increased, increasing by 133.33 yuan/ton or 1.77% compared to November 15th, with a year-on-year increase of 18.21%. The price of raw material propylene has slightly decreased, with average cost support. The downstream market for neopentyl glycol has slightly declined, and downstream customers’ enthusiasm for purchasing isobutyraldehyde has weakened. Some manufacturers have stopped for maintenance, resulting in a decrease in the circulation of goods in the market, and some dealers have raised their prices.

In the future, it is expected that the domestic market price of isobutyraldehyde may fluctuate and rise, with consolidation being the main focus. The average market price is around 7700 yuan/ton.