The price of plasticizer DBP fluctuated and fell this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of October 13th, the DBP price was 10087.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.82% from the DBP price of 10275 yuan/ton on October 8th; Compared to the DBP price of 10250 yuan/ton on October 1st, it decreased by 1.25%. This week, the raw material n-butanol fluctuated and fell, the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell, while the price of isooctanol fluctuated and increased. Cost support weakened, downstream demand was average, and plasticizer DBP enterprises started stable operations. This week, the price of plasticizer DBP fluctuated and fell.

The price of n-butanol fluctuated and fell this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of October 13th, the price of n-butanol was 8850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.39% compared to the price of 9066.67 yuan/ton on October 8th; The price of n-butanol decreased by 2.39% compared to 9066.67 yuan/ton on October 1st. This week, the factory price of n-butanol has fallen, and n-butanol manufacturers have accumulated inventory. After the holiday, the price of propylene has fluctuated and decreased. n-butanol enterprises have a low acceptance of high priced raw materials, and the cost of n-butanol has decreased. Downstream demand for cautious procurement has increased the pressure on n-butanol prices to decline.

The raw material phthalic anhydride market fluctuated and fell this week

According to the market analysis system for phthalic anhydride products of the Business Society, as of October 13th, the quotation for neighboring phthalic anhydride was 8387.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.47% compared to the price of 8600 yuan/ton on October 8th. The price of Naifa phthalic anhydride has decreased, the price of ortho benzene has fluctuated and decreased, the cost of phthalic anhydride has decreased, the phthalic anhydride market is operating cautiously, terminal demand remains cold, downstream procurement enthusiasm is poor, and the price of phthalic anhydride has fluctuated and decreased. The cost support for plasticizers has weakened.

Future expectations

Business Society plasticizer product data analysts believe that this week, butanol prices fluctuated and fell, phthalic anhydride prices fluctuated and fell, DBP raw material costs decreased, and DBP downward pressure increased; PVC prices have fluctuated and fallen, with insufficient silver fineness and weak demand for plasticizers. Overall, as costs decrease and demand weakens, the downward pressure on plasticizer DBP increases, and it is expected that DBP prices will fluctuate and fall in the future.

Cobalt prices rebounded and rose after the holiday

According to the cobalt market analysis system of the Business Society, as of October 12th, the cobalt price was 255900 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.35% compared to the cobalt price of 255000 yuan/ton on October 1st. In October, the international cobalt price continued to rise, and the domestic cobalt market was positive. After the holiday, the domestic cobalt price slightly increased.

MB Cobalt Price Rising in October

From the trend chart of MB cobalt price, it can be seen that in September, MB cobalt price stopped falling and rebounded, while in October, cobalt price continued its upward trend in September and slightly increased. The international cobalt market is favorable, which is beneficial for the domestic cobalt market.

Rising sales of new energy vehicles

According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in September 2023, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China reached 879000 and 904000, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 16.1% and 27.7%, and a market share of 31.6%. From January to September, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 6.313 million and 6.278 million, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 33.7% and 37.5%, and a market share of 29.8%. According to data released by the China Passenger Car Association, the domestic passenger car market produced 2.453 million vehicles in September, an increase of 2.3% year-on-year and 8.7% month on month. The cumulative production from January to September was 17.95 million vehicles, an increase of 4.8% year-on-year. The production and sales of new energy vehicles have increased year-on-year, but the growth rate has slowed down. The demand for cobalt in the market has increased, but the growth rate may not meet expectations.

Overview and outlook

According to Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at Business Society, the production and sales of new energy vehicles have grown, but the growth rate may not meet expectations. International cobalt prices have slightly increased, and the domestic cobalt market is positive. Overall, the supply and demand in the cobalt market have increased, and the rise in international cobalt prices has stimulated domestic cobalt exports. The supply and demand in the cobalt market are relatively balanced, and the cobalt price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average TDI market price in East China on October 11th was 18900 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.07% compared to the previous working day of 18700 yuan/ton, indicating a strong market performance. After the holiday, the intensive release of TDI factory equipment maintenance news has boosted market sentiment, causing a significant increase in the quoted prices of cargo holders. The market learned that Shanghai Kesichuang has once again closed down due to inventory constraints, and suppliers have a strong intention to support the market. The trade market follows the guidance of the news, and the quoted prices of cargo holders continue to rise.

The downstream side follows up on demand, with strong support from on-site suppliers and a bullish mindset among operators. It is expected that the short-term TDI market will continue to operate strongly, and specific attention will be paid to the downstream follow-up situation.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic PTA market showed a significant decline today (October 9th), with an average market price of 6013 yuan/ton in the East China region, a decrease of 3.22% compared to the previous trading day.

There were many negative news during the National Day holiday, leading to a weakening of PTA prices. Crude oil and PX have plummeted, with significant cost drag. Concerns about interest rate hikes, an increase in bearish inventory from oil producing countries that may increase production in the future, and weak gasoline demand have put pressure on oil prices at high levels. The current market is still relatively abundant in spot goods. In addition, Yisheng Hainan’s 2.5 million ton and Hanbang Petrochemical’s 2.2 million ton new units have been postponed to production in November. The downstream polyester start-up load remains stable at around 85%, and some weaving factories are on vacation, resulting in a slight decrease in start-up load. Domestic and foreign trade orders are also mostly small orders.

Analysts from Business Society believe that with the end of the Asian Games, the polyester production load will rebound to a certain extent, and demand is expected to rebound. It is expected that the short-term PTA price will fluctuate with the raw material end.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, after the 11th National Day holiday, terminal rigid demand has declined, and the hydrogen peroxide market has plummeted by over 30%. On October 8th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 1433 yuan/ton. On October 1st, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 2126 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 32.6%.

Negative sentiment suppresses the decline of hydrogen peroxide market

After the Double Festival, the stock market in the terminal printing and papermaking industry has ended, and demand has declined. In addition, the market acceptance of high priced hydrogen peroxide has decreased, resulting in a significant drop in hydrogen peroxide prices. The mainstream quotation for 27.5% hydrogen peroxide in Shandong region dropped to 1500 yuan/ton, while the mainstream quotation for 27.5% hydrogen peroxide in Hebei region dropped to 1300 yuan/ton, and the mainstream quotation for 27.5% hydrogen peroxide in Anhui region dropped to 1500 yuan/ton. The domestic price of 27.5% hydrogen peroxide has decreased by about 500 yuan/ton compared to before the holiday.

Li Bing, an analyst at Business Society Chemical, believes that the bearish situation will be suppressed, and terminal rigid demand will decline. The future market for hydrogen peroxide will still be dominated by a decline.

The price of aluminum fluoride increases after the holiday

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of October 7th, the domestic quotation for aluminum fluoride was 10350 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.97% compared to the price of aluminum fluoride on October 1st, which was 10150 yuan/ton. After the holiday, the prices of raw materials such as fluorite and hydrofluoric acid fluctuated and increased, resulting in higher costs. Aluminum fluoride also rose after the holiday.

Rising prices of raw materials

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of October 7th, the price of fluorite was 3662.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.17% compared to the price of fluorite on October 1st, which was 3550 yuan/ton. As of October 7th, the price of hydrofluoric acid was 11383.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.56% compared to the price of hydrofluoric acid on October 1st, which was 10583.33 yuan/ton. After the holiday, the resources of fluorite mines remain tight, with low inventory of fluorite merchants and tight supply, resulting in an increase in fluorite prices; Downstream refrigerant prices have increased, demand has increased, coupled with rising raw material prices, leading to an increase in the price of hydrofluoric acid. The prices of raw materials such as fluorite and hydrofluoric acid have increased, resulting in rising costs. The support for the future price increase of aluminum fluoride has increased.

Market Overview and Forecast

Analysts from the fluoride aluminum industry at the Business Society believe that after the holiday, the prices of hydrofluoric acid and fluorite fluctuate and rise, and the cost support for fluoride aluminum increases. In the future, rising costs are good for boosting, while the rise of aluminum fluoride is more supportive. It is expected that the price of aluminum fluoride will fluctuate and rise in the future.

Price trend

In September, the domestic PA6 market saw an increase, with various spot prices fluctuating and rising. According to data monitoring from Business News Agency, as of September 30th, the mixed benchmark price of PA6 in China was 14825 yuan/ton, a decrease of+5.14% compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

From the above figure, it can be seen that the market price of caprolactam rose first and then fell in September. In the first half of the month, the raw material pure benzene market strengthened, and cost support was favorable. At the same time, the supply of caprolactam is tight, and the focus of transactions is on the rise. In the latter half of the year, pure benzene turned around and went down, combined with a decrease in downstream demand, resulting in a decline in caprolactam. Overall, the cost side support for PA6 is acceptable within the month.

On the supply side:

Since September, the load of PA6 production enterprises has been generally sideways, with an average operating rate of around 75% in China. The market supply is flat compared to the end of August, and due to the impact of inventory digestion in the first half of the month, the warehousing pressure on domestic enterprises is not significant yet. However, in the latter half of the year, the supply of goods on site has increased, and the support of suppliers for spot goods has weakened.

In terms of demand: Downstream, the load of the weaving and spinning industries fluctuated slightly in September and remained stable, with an average load position of around 65% and 80%, respectively. In the first half of the month, the stock demand was fulfilled, and then the buyer’s acceptance of the increased price decreased, which affected the circulation speed of some sources of goods. Towards the end of the month, downstream enterprises have basically completed their purchases, and the actual trading level has gradually weakened. The market wait-and-see atmosphere has begun to dominate. Overall, the demand side support for PA6 slicing is first strong and then weak.

Future Market Forecast

After the market price of PA6 rose in September, it was sorted out. The price of caprolactam rose first and then fell, and the overall cost support for PA6 is still acceptable. The domestic polymerization plant has stable load and abundant supply. After stocking up and cashing in before the end of the demand period, caution gradually increased, and holiday terminal enterprises and merchants gradually withdrew from the market, resulting in a decrease in market trading. It is expected that the PA6 market will enter a narrow range consolidation market in early October.