Cobalt prices fluctuate and consolidate this week

According to the cobalt market analysis system of the Business Society, as of September 22, the cobalt price was 254600 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.79% compared to September 15, when the cobalt price was 252600 yuan/ton; The cobalt price slightly decreased by 0.16% compared to 255000 yuan/ton on September 10th. The growth of ternary battery loading has slowed down, and demand in the cobalt market has rebounded. This week, cobalt prices have stopped falling and rebounded, but the growth rate of demand in the cobalt market has slowed down. Recently, cobalt prices have fluctuated and consolidated.

Slow down in the increase of ternary battery loading volume

According to data from the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, in August, China’s power battery installation volume was 34.9GWh, a year-on-year increase of 25.7% and a month on month increase of 8.2%. The installed capacity of ternary batteries is 10.8GWh, accounting for 31.0% of the total installed capacity, with a year-on-year increase of 2.7% and a month on month increase of 2.3%; The installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries is 24.1GWh, accounting for 69.0% of the total installed capacity, with a year-on-year increase of 39.7% and a month on month increase of 11.0%. The installation volume of ternary batteries in August increased both month on month, but the growth rate significantly slowed down compared to July. The overall performance of the new energy vehicle market, from July to August, is the traditional off-season for new energy vehicle sales. However, under the situation of “100 city linkage+thousands of towns and counties” and some new energy vehicle companies significantly ceding profits, the overall trend of off-season is not weak. The performance of the new energy vehicle market is better than market expectations. September, as the momentum node at the end of the quarter, the performance of the car market in September will still be expected. However, the sale of profits has overdrawn the demand for new energy vehicles in the fourth quarter ahead of schedule, and the growth rate of demand for new energy vehicles in the fourth quarter may not be as expected. Overall, the demand for cobalt in new energy vehicles has increased, but the growth is not as expected, and future growth expectations are poor. The continuous increase in cobalt prices lacks momentum.

Overview and outlook

According to Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at Business Society, the sales of new energy vehicles are not weak in the off-season, but the growth rate of ternary battery installation has slowed down. The sales of new energy vehicles in the fourth quarter may not be as expected, and the demand growth in the cobalt market has slowed down, with insufficient support for the rise in cobalt prices. Overall, the cobalt market has stable supply and demand growth, but the growth rate is lower than expected. The support for the rise in cobalt prices is still present but the driving force for sustained growth is insufficient. In the future, cobalt prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate in a narrow range.

The price of plasticizer DBP fluctuated and fell this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of September 21, the DBP price was 10425 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.34% compared to the DBP price of 10675 yuan/ton on September 14. The price of DBP raw material isooctanol fluctuated and fell, while the price of n-butanol first rose and then fell. The cost of plasticizer DBP raw material decreased, and the price of plasticizer DBP fluctuated and fell.

The price of n-butanol rose first and then fell this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of September 21, the price of n-butanol was 9766.67 yuan/ton, which increased and then decreased by 2.01% compared to the price of n-butanol on September 14, which was 9966.67 yuan/ton. Plasticizer enterprises are operating at a low level, and the trading atmosphere in the n-butanol market this week is light. The mentality of n-butanol operators is average, and downstream demand is cautious in purchasing according to quantity. The cost support for plasticizer DBP is weakened.

The market for raw material phthalic anhydride rose first and then fell

According to the market analysis system for phthalic anhydride products of the Business Society, as of September 21, the quotation for neighboring phthalic anhydride was 8812.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.86% compared to the price of 8737.50 yuan/ton on September 14; The price of phthalic anhydride decreased by 0.42% compared to 8850 yuan/ton on September 20th. The price of ortho xylene has fluctuated and increased, and the willingness of phthalic anhydride enterprises to stand up has increased. The price of phthalic anhydride has increased, and some phthalic anhydride enterprises have restarted. The supply of phthalic anhydride has increased, and the price of phthalic anhydride has decreased; The demand for plasticizers is cold, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is poor. There is a significant resistance to high priced phthalic anhydride, and this week, phthalic anhydride has stopped rising and falling.

The price of isooctanol has stopped falling and stabilized this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of isooctanol on September 21 was 11720 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.93% compared to the price of isooctanol on September 14, which was 12200 yuan/ton. The domestic isooctanol plant has started operating and restarted, resulting in an oversupply of isooctanol and a fluctuating decline in isooctanol prices; This week, the price of propylene fluctuated and increased. Under cost pressure, the space for reducing the price of isooctanol is limited, and the price of isooctanol has stabilized.

Future expectations

Analysts from Business Society’s plasticizer product data believe that the price of isooctanol has stabilized, while the price of n-butanol has first increased and then decreased. The market for phthalic anhydride has stopped rising and fallen, and the cost support for plasticizer DBP has weakened. In the future, there is insufficient demand support for cost reduction, and there is significant downward pressure on DBP prices. It is expected that DBP prices will be weak and consolidate in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from September 13th to 20th, the domestic ethanol price increased from 6912 yuan/ton to 7075 yuan/ton, with a weekly price increase of 1.28%, a month on month increase of 2.03%, and a year-on-year increase of 2.98%. In some regions, the inventory of manufacturers is relatively low, and the market atmosphere is gradually increasing driven by edible grade ethanol. At the same time, the raw material corn is driving up the domestic ethanol market, which is actively driving up the market.

In terms of cost, as we enter mid September, spring corn from North China and other regions has been listed one after another. New season corn has entered the market sporadically, and the willingness of grain trading entities to leave the market has increased. The wait-and-see attitude of downstream deep processed corn has increased. In addition, with continuous price increases and restocking in the early stage, corn inventory has been effectively replenished, and corn purchase prices have been gradually lowered, driving domestic corn market prices to rise and slightly decline. There are temporary positive factors in the cost of ethanol.

On the supply side, the majority of production enterprises in various regions park their facilities, and the operating rate of normally operating enterprises remains at 30-40%. A small number of enterprises have low inventory, while most enterprises have relatively high inventory. Recently, the continuous rise in gasoline prices has driven up the price of fuel ethanol, causing some production enterprises to have a slight shortage of supply. The impact of ethanol supply is mixed.

On the demand side, the downstream chemical industry just needs to purchase, and the demand for ethyl acetate has been slightly boosted, which significantly supports the price. With the coming of the Double Festival, the stock of Baijiu has increased, and the stock of Baijiu has increased. The short-term demand for ethanol is influenced by favorable factors.

Future market predictions indicate high costs and a supply-demand game. Ethanol analysts at the Business Society predict that the domestic ethanol market may be slightly stronger in the short term.

List of ethylene glycol prices

According to data from Business News Agency, on September 19th, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4303.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.03% compared to the beginning of the month. The prices in various regions are as follows:

The price range for spot goods executed by mainstream manufacturers in East China is between 4250 and 4300 yuan/ton; The spot price of ethylene glycol in the South China market is 4250 yuan/ton, while the price range for mainstream manufacturers in Central China is 4100 yuan/ton; The spot price for mainstream manufacturers in North China is 4350 yuan/ton.

The ex factory tax price of coal based polyester grade ethylene glycol is low, and the current price range is between 3680-3790 yuan/ton.

On September 18th, the CIF price of ethylene glycol in China was 496 US dollars/ton; The CIF Southeast Asia price is $499 per ton.

Ethylene glycol fundamentals

Strong cost support

Recently, oil prices, coal prices, ethane prices, and ethylene prices have all shown a strong operating trend. As raw materials for various paths, they have also brought cost support, providing strong positive guidance for the overall price valuation of ethylene glycol.

Port accumulation has slightly eased

In September 2023, the ethylene glycol inventory in the main port of East China was slightly depleted. As of September 18, 2023, the total spot inventory of ethylene glycol in the main port of East China was 1.0165 million tons, which is 1.1448 million tons compared to the total spot inventory of ethylene glycol in the main port of East China on August 31 and 128300 tons removed from the warehouse.

The port inventory is high, and the main inventory of ethylene glycol in East China is still above 1 million tons. However, the pressure on accumulated inventory has eased recently, mainly due to the fact that many imported ethylene glycol goods from the United States have failed quality inspection. In addition, the subsequent arrival volume was to some extent affected by the expected maintenance of overseas devices from September to October, which has weakened the pressure on port supply of goods.

However, the domestic supply is still at a relatively high level, with a relatively large production capacity and a restart of equipment in the early stage. Although there are maintenance expectations in the near future, there are expectations of a slight contraction at a high level in the trend;

Downstream polyester operating rate decreases

Supported by the high start-up rate of polyester in the early stage, ethylene glycol still shows a surplus state despite exceeding the expected downstream start-up rate of polyester; As the Asian Games approaches, the actual operating rates of downstream polyester and textile factories have decreased, and the current polyester load is around 88.9%. The specific change devices are as follows (incomplete statistics):

Several polyester units in Xiaoshan have been shut down, with a total production capacity of 2.58 million tons, all of which are filament or chip production units; The two major factories in Xiaoshan will be shut down for maintenance on the evening of the 17th and are expected to restart on October 8th; In addition, a set of 150000 ton/year polyester bottle chip device in Central China has been shut down due to some reasons, and the restart time is uncertain.

Future market forecast

Ethylene glycol by-products have a large attribute, and in the process of integrated devices, cost considerations are weakened. In the case of high profits from other products, it is difficult to make significant changes in the supply and demand fundamentals. In the early stage, the ethylene glycol market was mainly dominated by cost factors, and in the later stage, it will gradually return to fundamental reality. It is expected that short-term ethylene glycol prices will still fluctuate strongly, but the upward space will narrow.

The domestic acetic acid market is operating strongly, with prices rising broadly. Enterprise inventory remains low, downstream and traders are actively stocking up, the market trading atmosphere is improving, manufacturers’ shipments are smooth, and there is a strong intention to increase prices. Acetic acid prices continue to rise during the week, and the acetic acid market is strong at a high level.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, on September 17th, the average price of acetic acid in East China was 4800 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.49% compared to the price of 4550 yuan/ton on September 11th.

The upstream raw material methanol market has been fluctuating and sorted out. As of September 17, the average price in the domestic market was 2535 yuan/ton, an overall increase of 1.00% compared to the price of 2510 yuan/ton on September 11. The methanol futures market has retreated from a high level, and the sentiment in the spot market has weakened. Traders have been cautious in their operations, slowing down the speed of methanol pickup, increasing inventory of production enterprises, and manufacturers selling at inflated prices. The market is stagnant, and the domestic methanol market is operating in a volatile manner.

The downstream acetic anhydride market has shown a strong upward trend. As of September 17th, the factory price of acetic anhydride was 7402.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.33% compared to the price of 7095.00 yuan/ton on July 11th. The upstream acetic acid price continues to rise, the cost of acetic anhydride continues to increase, the operation of acetic anhydride equipment is low, some manufacturers’ equipment is shut down, the supply of acetic anhydride is tight, and the price of acetic anhydride is rising.

In the future market forecast, acetic acid analysts from Business Society believe that the inventory of domestic acetic acid factories is currently low, and downstream procurement is active. As the National Day holiday approaches, downstream inventory demand may continue to be positive, and it is expected that acetic acid will continue to operate at a high level in the future.

This week (September 11th to September 17th), the market for dichloromethane significantly increased. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of September 17th, the average price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong Province was 2945 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.47% from Monday’s 2715 yuan/ton. The high price of raw material methanol and the significant increase in liquid chlorine prices have led to a significant rebound in the cost center of dichloromethane; The domestic production of methane chloride is around 75%, and the inventory of enterprises is at a medium to low level. Dichloromethane has significantly increased, and as of September 17th, the factory price of mainstream dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong region is around 2900-3100 yuan/ton.

This week (September 11th to September 17th), the domestic methane chloride production started normally, with an overall production rate of around 75%.

This week (September 11th to September 17th), the price of raw material methanol was operating at a high level, and the price of liquid chlorine rose significantly again, with a significant increase in the cost center of dichloromethane. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of September 17th, the spot price of methanol was 2535 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.00% from Monday’s 2510 yuan/ton. As of September 17th, the acceptance price of liquid chlorine tank trucks in Shandong Province has significantly increased from Monday’s 300 yuan/ton at 700 yuan/ton, supporting the cost of dichloromethane.

The domestic production of methane chloride is around 75%, and the inventory of enterprises remains at a medium to low level, which supports the price of dichloromethane; At present, the demand for refrigerants is limited, and most downstream refrigerant manufacturers are still watching the market. The overall market trading is flat, and as the value and profit of refrigerants decrease, refrigerants have a resistance attitude towards high priced dichloromethane, and only maintain a certain level of just needed support for dichloromethane.

Future Market Forecast: According to the methane chloride data of Business Society, there is not much pressure on the supply side of dichloromethane, coupled with significant cost support. Overall, it is expected that the dichloromethane market will consolidate at a high level in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average market price of 55% powdered ammonium phosphate in China on September 8th was 3116 yuan/ton. On September 14th, the average market price of 55% powdered ammonium phosphate in China was 3100 yuan/ton. This week, the market price of monoammonium phosphate decreased by 0.53%.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of 64% diammonium phosphate in China on September 8th was 3875 yuan/ton. On September 14th, the average market price of 64% diammonium phosphate in China was 3875 yuan/ton. This week, the market price of diammonium phosphate remained stable.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the high price of ammonium phosphate market has been sorted and operated. The price of raw material phosphate rock has increased, the price of raw material sulfur has decreased, and the cost side is mixed. The market price of ammonium phosphate has undergone a narrow adjustment, with fewer new orders in the market and a decrease in downstream procurement enthusiasm. Holders are actively shipping, and the market trading atmosphere has weakened. As of September 14th, the market price of 55 powdered ammonium in Henan region is around 3100 yuan/ton, while the market price of 55 powdered ammonium in Hubei region is around 3050-3100 yuan/ton, with actual negotiations being the main focus. The quotation for 64% ammonium chloride in Shandong region is around 3750-4000 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is negotiated.

In terms of raw sulfur, the domestic sulfur market has shown a downward trend this week. Downstream demand slows down, market trading atmosphere weakens, market mentality is poor, and refinery shipments are not smooth. As of September 14th, the reference average price of sulfur in East China is 1090 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material phosphorus ore, the domestic mid to high-end grade phosphorus ore market has seen an overall upward trend this week. The downstream demand for domestic phosphate ore is gradually recovering, and with demand boosting, the phosphate ore industry has a good mentality. The supply of mid to high-end grade ore in phosphate rock yards is tight, and spot circulation is tight. With the support of both supply and demand sides, the focus of the phosphate ore market has been constantly moving upwards in recent days.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to analysts from the Business Society’s ammonium phosphate market, the trading atmosphere in the ammonium phosphate market has weakened recently, and prices have been operating at high levels. At present, there is a decrease in new orders in the market and a weakening in demand, with the main focus being on pending orders, but there is still support on the cost side. It is expected that the short-term price of ammonium phosphate will be mainly managed within a narrow range.

According to data monitored by Business Society, as of September 13th, the average price of domestic industrial grade premium cyclohexane was 7066.67 yuan/ton, which is stable compared to the same period last week. The overall market supply and demand are balanced, and shipments are currently slow.

This week, the market price of cyclohexane has been operating in a narrow range, with the mainstream price around 7033.33 yuan/ton. Compared to the same period last week, the price has remained stable, with mainstream manufacturers maintaining a quotation range of around 7000 yuan/ton and a stable operating rate. Downstream demand procurement is the main focus, and the negotiation atmosphere is flat.

Chemical Index: On September 13th, the chemical index stood at 955 points, an increase of 3 points compared to yesterday, a decrease of 31.79% from the cycle’s highest point of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and an increase of 59.70% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

Cyclohexane analysts from Business Society believe that in the short term, the stable operation of the cyclohexane market is the main trend, with a narrow range leaning towards strength.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average market price on September 12th was 4700 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.30% compared to the previous working day of 4500 yuan/ton. Domestic acetic acid manufacturers have low inventory and mainly execute long-term contracts. The market supply is tight, and downstream and traders are actively taking goods. The trading atmosphere on the market is improving, and the focus of acetic acid transactions has shifted upward. The industry has a strong upward trend, with manufacturers in Shandong increasing their daily price by 100 yuan/ton.

Looking at the future market, the downstream market is currently showing good enthusiasm for entering the market, with insufficient market supply and strong supplier support. It is expected that the acetic acid market will continue to operate strongly.

Zinc prices fluctuate and rise this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of September 11th, the zinc price was 21654 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.36% compared to the fluctuating zinc price of 21364 yuan/ton on September 1st. With the arrival of the traditional peak season of gold, silver, and ten, the demand for zinc has rebounded, and the popularity of the zinc market has rebounded. Market confidence has improved and rebounded, and the positive situation of the zinc market has increased. This week, zinc prices have fluctuated and risen.

The import volume of zinc market has surged

According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China’s refined zinc imports in July were 76796.69 tons, a significant increase of 3774.19% year-on-year and 69.42% month on month, marking the highest monthly record since April 2019. In the past 10 years, China has been a net importer of refined zinc, but this situation has changed in 2022. In 2022, the import volume plummeted from 434000 tons in 2021 to 79000 tons, while the export volume increased from 5000 tons to 81000 tons. The structural transformation of the trade model in 2022 is due to weak domestic demand and high spot premiums in Western markets. These factors are mainly affected by the impact of the epidemic and the closure of European smelters, and investors have insufficient confidence in the Chinese market in 2022. In 2023, the import and export of refined zinc experienced another reversal, with a total of only 5000 tons in the first seven months of 2023. In July alone, the import volume reached as high as 76800 tons, and the import volume of refined zinc surged, indicating an improvement in the Chinese market sentiment. Chinese market confidence has regained optimism, and the overall zinc market is positive.

Increase in imports of electrolytic zinc

China is a major producer and consumer of electrolytic zinc, with zinc production capacity and output ranking first in the world for more than 20 consecutive years. For a long time, China’s electrolytic zinc has been mainly exported, while imports have been relatively small. However, in the first half of 2023, the import volume of electrolytic zinc significantly increased, while the export volume actually decreased. According to data from the General Administration of Customs, the total import volume of electrolytic zinc in the first half of 2023 was 98.27 thousand tons, an increase of 100.43% compared to the first half of 2022; The total export volume of electrolytic zinc in the first half of 2023 was 7.58 thousand tons, a decrease of 87.46% compared to the first half of 2022. There has been a significant change in import and export volume in the first half of 2023, mainly due to: on the one hand, the domestic zinc market is expected to rebound, the zinc ingot market in the Shanghai futures market is expected to rebound, the Shanghai London zinc ratio is up, and the import window is open, which is beneficial for imports but not conducive to exports; On the other hand, the demand at home and abroad is poor, and overseas zinc inventory has increased significantly, limiting the export of electrolytic zinc.

Future Market Forecast

According to data analysts from Business Society, the arrival of the traditional peak season of gold, silver, and ten has stimulated demand in the domestic zinc market, and the domestic zinc market is expected to rebound; The international market demand is weak, and China’s zinc market exports are weakening, while imports are increasing. Overall, with the arrival of the traditional peak season, both supply and demand in the zinc market have increased, imports have increased and exports have weakened. The supply of zinc in the market is sufficient, and the social inventory of zinc ingots has shifted from a decline to an increase. There is limited room for zinc prices to rise, and it is expected that zinc prices will consolidate strongly in the future.