Cobalt prices fluctuated and fell this week

According to data monitoring from Business Society, as of August 15th, cobalt prices were 268000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.76% compared to August 6th, when cobalt prices were 281400 yuan/ton. The import volume of cobalt raw materials has steadily increased, the cobalt market has sufficient supply, the sales of new energy vehicles have decreased month on month, downstream demand is weak, and the cobalt market has oversupplied. This week, cobalt prices have fluctuated and fallen.

Decline in sales of new energy vehicles

According to data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in July, the sales of new energy vehicles in China reached 780000 units, a year-on-year increase of 31.6% and a month on month decrease of 3.23%. July is the off-season of the traditional car market, and the pace of production and sales has slowed down. The overall market performance is relatively flat, with a year-on-year decline. New energy vehicles and automobile exports continue to develop well, but sales have slightly decreased compared to June month on month. The sales of new energy vehicles have declined, the demand for cobalt in the market has declined, and the pressure on cobalt prices to decline has increased.

According to data released by the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, in terms of production, in July, China’s power battery production totaled 61.0 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 28.9% and a month on month increase of 1.5%. Among them, the production of ternary batteries was 20.4GWh, an increase of 17.2% year-on-year and 15.2% month on month; In terms of loading volume, in July, China’s power battery loading volume was 32.2GWh, a year-on-year increase of 33.3% and a month on month decrease of 2.0%. The installed capacity of ternary batteries was 10.6GWh, an increase of 7.4% year-on-year and 4.8% month on month. In July, the production and loading of ternary batteries showed varying degrees of increase compared to the same month on month, and the increase in ternary batteries was significantly higher than that of power batteries. The demand for ternary batteries rebounded, and the support for cobalt demand from ternary batteries still exists.

Overview and outlook

According to Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at Business Society, against the backdrop of sufficient and stable supply in the cobalt market, the growth of demand in the cobalt market has become a weather vane for the trend of cobalt prices. In July, the sales of new energy vehicles decreased month on month, and the demand in the cobalt market has declined. However, the demand for ternary batteries has rebounded, and the support for cobalt market demand still exists. The expected decline in cobalt prices in the future will slow down, causing fluctuations and consolidation.

According to data from Business News Agency, the domestic maleic anhydride market has been on the rise this week. As of August 14th, the average market price of n-butane oxidation maleic anhydride remained at 6530.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.77% compared to the price of 6480.00 yuan/ton on August 7th, and an increase of 3.98% compared to the same period last month.

On August 14th, the maleic anhydride commodity index was 61.51, an increase of 0.84 points compared to yesterday, a decrease of 63.04% from the cycle’s highest point of 166.43 points (2021-12-15), and a rise of 20.18% from the lowest point of 51.18 points on April 14th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

This week, the downstream resin market is in a low season and the market is basically stable. The resin downstream just needs to be restocked, and the resin manufacturers’ shipments are average, with limited replenishment of maleic anhydride. The international crude oil market is fluctuating and rising, with a significant increase in the raw material n-butane market and a rise in the maleic anhydride market in the second half of the week. As of the 14th, the solid anhydride in Shandong region is around 6500 yuan/ton, Jiangsu region is around 6500 yuan/ton, and South China region is around 6800 yuan/ton.

On the upstream side, the price of pure benzene has increased this week. On August 14th, the price of pure benzene was 7817.17 yuan/ton, and on August 7th, it was 7675.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.85%. The ex factory price of hydrogenated benzene in North China has increased. On August 14th, the price of hydrogenated benzene was 7916.67 yuan/ton, and on August 7th, it was 7783.33 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.71%. The market for n-butane has significantly increased this week, with prices in Shandong reaching around 5100 yuan/ton as of August 14th, with an overall increase of around 600 yuan/ton.

Business Society’s maleic anhydride product analysts believe that recently, domestic new units of maleic anhydride in Henan have started to be sold out, with a partial increase in domestic supply of maleic anhydride and a strong willingness for factories to sign orders; The market for n-butane in the upstream of maleic anhydride has significantly increased, driving up the domestic maleic anhydride market, with factory cost support, and downstream entry is just needed. It is expected that the maleic anhydride market will continue to rise in the near future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic polyester staple fiber market showed a slight upward trend this week (August 7-11) driven by cost benefits. As of August 11, the average factory price of 1.4D * 38mm polyester staple fiber was 7651 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.44% compared to the beginning of the week.

The crude oil volatility is relatively strong, and concerns about supply tightening have driven the oil price to a nearly nine month high. As of August 10th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was at $82.82 per barrel, while the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was at $86.40 per barrel. Under low processing costs, there has been an unexpected increase in PTA device maintenance and a decrease in supply recently. This week, the domestic PTA market showed a slight recovery, with the average market price in East China as of August 11th at 5914 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.09% compared to the beginning of the week.

The downstream yarn market is still stable and wait-and-see, with a consolidation trend as the main trend. Most yarn factories and traders are calm and waiting for the peak season, and some yarn factories have taken low-priced restocking actions, resulting in a relatively slow increase in power. As of August 11th, the average price of pure polyester yarn in the Shandong region remained stable at 12775 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 10.66%. At present, yarn mills generally indicate that although inventory pressure is not high, they are somewhat cautious about the future market.

Analysts from Business Society believe that the strong prices of short-term raw materials will still provide favorable support for the polyester short market. Considering that the traditional peak season in September is approaching and downstream yarn orders are expected to improve, the polyester short staple market will continue to operate stronger in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average market price of ammonium sulfate in China was 1110 yuan/ton on August 4th, and 1070 yuan/ton on August 10th. This week, the market price of ammonium sulfate decreased by 3.60%.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the domestic ammonium sulfate market price fell back from a high point. This week, urea prices fell, negatively affecting the ammonium sulfate market. This week, the bidding price of ammonium sulfate has significantly decreased, and the focus of market transactions has declined. Ammonium sulfate is still available in the international market, with support for export orders. Downstream and distributors purchase cautiously and have a strong wait-and-see mentality. As of August 10th, the mainstream market quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Hebei Province is around 1040-1100 yuan/ton. The mainstream factory quotation for domestic ammonium sulfate in Shandong is around 1020-1080 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Analysts from the Business Society believe that the ammonium sulfate market has started to weaken recently, with a significant drop in high market prices and a limited decrease in low prices. At present, the market demand is stable, and the industry is mainly wait-and-see. It is expected that the short-term trend of ammonium sulfate prices will be mainly weak and downward.

From the monthly K-bar chart of bromine, it can be seen that the price of bromine has been showing a downward trend in the first half of 2023, and in July, the price experienced an increase of 12.22%.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the price of bromine has ended its decline since early July and has been rising all the way. At the beginning of July, the price of bromine was 18000 yuan/ton. On August 9th, the price of bromine was 23800 yuan/ton, an increase of 32.22%. As of now, the mainstream quotation for bromine in Shandong is around 23000-25000 yuan/ton, while the mainstream quotation in the North China market is around 24000-25000 yuan/ton.

On the supply side

With the arrival of the rainy season in July and August, seawater bromine manufacturers have reduced production, bromine production has decreased, and supply has decreased by about one-third. Data shows that the operating rate of bromine enterprises is currently less than 70%, with a month on month decrease of about 9.8%. In early July, bromine manufacturers continued to tentatively increase the price of bromine due to a decrease in production. However, downstream flame retardants and pesticide intermediates remained resistant to the rising price of bromine, and bromine companies were reluctant to sell. Bromine prices continued to rise.

Downstream aspect

Downstream flame retardants, pesticide intermediates, and other industries have recently started construction in general, with moderate demand and a focus on wait-and-see. Tetrabromobisphenol A, the mainstream offer is around 26000-26500 yuan/ton, with a single negotiation for more actual orders, average terminal demand, and insufficient price driving force. The supply and demand game shows that bromine companies’ shipments are not as good as last week. Market transactions are still mainly focused on just in demand procurement, and the industry’s mentality is lingering with the increase in quotation, with a wait-and-see sentiment.

Upstream product: Sulfur prices have risen, with an average market price of 713.33 yuan/ton in early July. On August 9th, the average market price was 933.33 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 30.84%. The inventory of manufacturers remains rational, with positive demand support from the end industry. The inventory of manufacturers is low, and the sulfur market has a strong upward trend. The supply and demand side is also positive, and it is expected that the short-term sulfur market will continue to be strong.

Analysts from Business Society believe that the price of bromine has been improving in the near future, while the downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries of bromine have shown moderate support. Data shows that the pharmaceutical intermediate industry is expected to undergo maintenance for 15-20 days. The spot supply of bromine is expected to decrease due to the rainy season, and the supply and demand of both parties are in a game. Downstream companies hope to find low-priced options, while bromine companies hope for high prices. Overall, it is expected that the market will slowly move up, depending on downstream market demand.

Product Name: Neopentyl Glycol

Latest price (August 8th): 9600.00 yuan/ton

On August 8th, the domestic market price of neopentyl glycol slightly increased, with a price increase of 250 yuan/ton compared to August 7th, an increase of 2.67%, and a year-on-year decrease of 5.26%. The market price of raw material isobutyraldehyde has recently slightly increased, with good cost support. The market situation of downstream polyester resin is average, and downstream customers have average enthusiasm for purchasing neopentyl glycol.

In the future, it is expected that the domestic market price of neopentyl glycol may fluctuate slightly. The average market price is around 9800 yuan/ton.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price trend of TDI in East China continued to rise this week. On August 6th, the average market price in East China was 19000 yuan/ton, an increase of 1000 yuan/ton compared to 18000 yuan/ton on July 31st, an increase of 5.56% during the week.

The domestic TDI market has shown a strong upward trend, mainly due to favorable supplier support. At the beginning of the week, the 160000 ton BASF plant in South Korea temporarily stopped on July 30, and later on, the Mitsui TDI plant in Japan was affected by a typhoon. Foreign supply was tight, and domestic orders were improving. At the same time, news of tight supply from Shanghai factories and a reduction in the load of a large plant in North China was released, resulting in a tight spot supply on the market. The factory’s attitude towards supporting the market was obvious, and the trade market followed suit, Holders’ offers continue to rise, with downstream suppliers following up on demand. The enthusiasm for entering the market for purchasing is moderate, with strong supplier support, and TDI prices moving up broadly.

The upstream toluene market continues to rise, with the domestic average price of toluene at around 7990 yuan/ton as of August 6th, an overall increase of 1.65% compared to the price of 7860 yuan/ton as of July 31st. On Friday, international crude oil prices continued to rise, driving up the price of toluene. At the same time, downstream expectations were expected to operate at high levels, providing support for toluene. The supply and demand side is strong, and the toluene market is on the rise.

In the future market analysis, TDI data analysts from the business agency believe that downstream follow-up is needed, market trading is still acceptable, supply side spot is tight, factories’ intention to support the market remains unchanged, and holders follow the market. The offer is firm, and the supply side on the market is strong. It is expected that the short-term TDI market will consolidate at a high level, and specific attention will be paid to the release of supplier information in the future market.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, as of August 4, the reference average price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in China was 6650 yuan/ton, which was 0.15% higher than the reference average price of 6640 yuan/ton on July 31.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of August 4th, the reference average price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China was 6433 yuan/ton, which is lower than the reference average price of 6433 yuan/ton on July 31st. The domestic wet process phosphoric acid price remained stable this week.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of thermal phosphoric acid has slightly increased this week. The price of raw material yellow phosphorus has increased, and cost support is positive. However, downstream demand is not performing well, with primary demand for restocking and average market transactions. As of August 4, the ex factory quotation of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Yunnan was about 6700 yuan/ton, and that of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei was about 6750-6800 yuan/ton. The domestic market quotation for 85% wet process phosphoric acid is around 5700-7300 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material yellow phosphorus, the price center of the Yungui yellow phosphorus market has been upward this week. At present, the overall market trading situation of yellow phosphorus is relatively good. The spot market of yellow phosphorus is tight, and the transaction price of new orders is stable and strong. Manufacturers mainly place early orders, but there is not much inventory on the market, which is difficult to sell at low prices, resulting in a relatively stagnant supply and demand. The enterprise will not provide external quotations for the time being, and will discuss the actual order in detail. As of now, the quotation is around 24200-24000 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is subject to negotiation.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Phosphoric acid analysts from Business Society believe that the price of phosphoric acid has been fluctuating recently. Although cost side support is positive, terminal demand is weak, with downstream cautious wait-and-see as the main focus, and limited room for phosphoric acid growth. It is expected that in the short term, the price of phosphoric acid in the market will narrow down and may rise with the increase of raw materials.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the asphalt market will be sorted out after the market price rises. From July 27th to August 3rd, the price of asphalt in Shandong fell from 3854 yuan/ton to 3802 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.34%, a month on month increase of 1.06%, and a year-on-year decrease of 13.05%. Affected by the decline in international crude oil, cost support has weakened, and the supply side has remained stable while increasing. At the same time, weather factors have affected an increase in precipitation in some regions of China, resulting in slightly flat demand.

In terms of supply, the main production enterprises include Wusu Mingyuan and Tianzhize resuming production, Shandong Haiyou resuming production, as well as Qilu Petrochemical and Dongming Petrochemical’s normal production, Ningbo Keyuan resuming production, and Yunnan Petrochemical’s intermittent production, which have driven an increase in the operating rate of devices in the region. The comprehensive operating rate of the asphalt industry has increased month on month, with negative impacts on the supply side.

On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: As of August 2nd, international crude oil futures have slightly declined. The settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $79.49 per barrel, a decrease of $1.88 or 2.3%. The settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $83.20 per barrel, a decrease of $1.71 or 2.0%. Fitch’s downgrade of the US credit rating has caused turmoil in the financial market, and risk aversion has led to a decline in the oil market.

On the demand side, the demand of asphalt market is relatively flat, and the demand varies from region to region. Rainfall weather may increase in some northern regions in the future, especially in Heilongjiang, Jilin and other places where there will be rainstorm or heavy rainstorm, accompanied by thunderstorms, gales, hail and other strong convection weather, which will affect the construction process of downstream terminals. However, the overall demand in the south has improved, and the phased demand may be strong in the south and weak in the north. The demand side of the asphalt market has a relatively stable impact.

As of the close of August 3rd, the petroleum asphalt futures market has declined. The main asphalt contract 2310 was opened at 3754 yuan/ton, with a maximum price of 3758 yuan/ton and a minimum price of 3690 yuan/ton. It closed at 3754 yuan/ton, a decrease of 55% or 1.46% compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume was 309091 lots, the holding volume was 228235 lots, and the daily increase was -21130 lots.

In the future, it is predicted that the international high crude oil level will weaken its support for asphalt, while the supply side will maintain stability and increase, with slight differences in demand among regions. Business Society asphalt analysts expect that the short-term domestic asphalt market situation will be mainly sorted out.

According to the commodity market analysis system of the Business Society, the spot price of styrene in Shandong fluctuated and increased in July. At the beginning of the month, the spot price of styrene in Shandong was 7163.33 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the spot price of styrene in Shandong was 8200.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 14.47%. The price has decreased by 15.84% compared to the same period last year.

styrene

The styrene market price fluctuated and increased in July. From the above chart, it can be seen that the price of styrene mainly fell in May and June, but this month’s price rebounded with a significant increase. The main reason for the increase is that the international crude oil price fluctuates higher, driving the pure benzene market to continue to rise, with strong cost support, small increase in downstream construction, increased spot transactions, more favorable styrene, and rising market.

In terms of raw materials, the price of pure benzene slightly increased in July, with prices gradually increasing. On July 1st, the price was 6183 yuan/ton; On July 31st, the price was at 7265 yuan/ton, an increase of 17.49% compared to the beginning of the month and a decrease of 18.29% compared to the same period last year. 1. Crude oil rose broadly. 2. The Asian American arbitrage window has closed, and the domestic price of pure benzene in China is high, resulting in a high import volume of pure benzene in July. And the overall supply of pure benzene in the market is sufficient. The fundamentals are showing an upward trend in the short term, with sufficient supply on the market. Pure benzene may continue to rise in the short term, and we are waiting to see if the cost and demand sides can improve. Continue to pay attention to the trend of crude oil and external markets, as well as the impact of the dynamics of pure benzene and downstream devices, and changes in demand on the price of pure benzene.

On the downstream side, the three major downstream markets of styrene saw mixed fluctuations in July. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average quotation for PS at the beginning of this month was 9200 yuan/ton, and the average price for PS at the end of the month was 9100 yuan/ton. The price decreased slightly by 1.07%, a decrease of 19.12% compared to the same period last year. The pace of merchant shipments is slow, downstream demand is poor, and the PS market has slightly declined.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of EPS ordinary materials fluctuated and increased in July. At the beginning of the month, the average quotation of EPS ordinary materials was 9350.00 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average price of EPS ordinary materials was 9475.00 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.29%. In July, domestic EPS prices were supported by costs, and it is expected that the domestic EPS market will mainly show a narrow range upward trend.

In July, the domestic ABS market declined, and spot prices were often reduced. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of July 28th, the average price of ABS sample products was 10500 yuan/ton, an increase or decrease of -0.24% compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month. Recently, the three upstream materials of ABS have seen mixed ups and downs, providing average support for the cost side of ABS. The construction of petrochemical plants has increased compared to the previous period, and market inventory has also increased simultaneously. The demand side support has fallen, and the overall weak and rigid demand pattern has been maintained. It is expected that the ABS market may continue to be weak.

At present, international oil prices continue to rise, with strong cost support. At the end of the month, the market is seeking bargains to replenish the increment, and the styrene industry has a good mentality. It is expected that the short-term volatility and rise in the styrene market will be the main trend.