According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, as of June 30, the price of O-Xylene was 8100 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.85% from the price of 7800 yuan/ton on January 1 at the beginning of the year. In the first half of the year, the price of ortho benzene first rose and then fell. From January to April, the price of ortho benzene continued to rise, while in May, the price of ortho benzene significantly decreased. From January to April, crude oil prices stabilized at high levels, mixed xylene prices fluctuated and increased, and the cost of ortho benzene increased; 5. In June, mixed xylene fluctuated and fell, resulting in a decrease in costs and increased downward pressure on adjacent benzene.

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the price of O-Xylene in 2023 will rise sharply compared with that in 20 and 21 years. In 2022, the prices of ortho benzene stabilized at a high level throughout the year. In 2023, the prices of ortho benzene increased year-on-year from January to February, and from March to May, the prices of ortho benzene remained relatively high. In June 2023, the prices of ortho benzene decreased year-on-year, but remained at a high level.

Price fluctuation chart of ortho benzene industry chain

According to the commodity market analysis system of the Business Society, the price of raw material mixed xylene has significantly fluctuated and increased, while the cost of ortho benzene has increased. Downstream phthalic anhydride prices have fluctuated and decreased, resulting in weak demand for ortho benzene. In the first half of the year, the price of ortho benzene first rose and then fell, with increased cost support and weak demand. The downward pressure in the future has weakened, and the upward momentum still exists.

The market for raw material mixed xylene increased significantly in the first half of the year

According to the market analysis system of mixed xylene products in the Business Society, as of June 30th, the price of mixed xylene was 7340 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.39% compared to the price of mixed xylene on January 1st at the beginning of the year, which was 6710 yuan/ton. In the first half of the year, the price of mixed xylene first rose, then fell, and then rose. Affected by the rise in crude oil prices, the mixed xylene market fluctuated and rose from January to April. With the intensification of macroeconomic risk aversion, the mixed xylene price fluctuated and fell; With the economic recovery, the price of crude oil and the price of mixed xylene rise in shock, and the O-Xylene market in the future has a strong upward momentum.

Downstream phthalic anhydride market fluctuates and falls

According to the analysis system of the market for phthalic anhydride products in the Business Society, as of June 30th, the price of phthalic anhydride was 7700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.50% compared to the price of 8062.50 yuan/ton on January 1st at the beginning of the year. The trend of OX is relatively positively correlated with the trend of phthalic anhydride. From January to April, the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and increased, downstream demand rebounded, and the price of neighboring benzene continued to rise; In May, the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and decreased, while the price of ortho benzene decreased; In June, the price of phthalic anhydride first fell and then rose, while the price of ortho benzene temporarily stabilized.

Future prospects

Analysts of O-Xylene data from the business community believe that in the first half of the year, the price of o-xylene rose first and then fell, and the overall cost of o-xylene supported limited demand remains weak. In June, the price of mixed xylene and phthalic anhydride fell first and then rose, and the downward pressure of O-Xylene weakened and the upward momentum remained. In late June, the price of mixed xylene and phthalic anhydride rebounded and adjusted, the upstream and downstream market of O-Xylene recovered, and the downward pressure of O-Xylene weakened. Overall, there is significant downward pressure on ortho benzene. With the rebound of mixed xylene and phthalic anhydride prices, the support for the rise of the ortho benzene industry chain is increasing. It is expected that the prices of ortho benzene will remain strong and stable in the future, and there is still momentum for the rise of ortho benzene in the future.

1、 Price data

According to the commodity analysis system of the business community, the price of Petroleum coke of the local refiners rose sharply this week. On July 9, the average price of Shandong market was 1866.50 yuan/ton, 5.07% higher than the price of 1776.50 yuan/ton on July 3.

On July 9, the Petroleum coke commodity index was 145.17, unchanged from yesterday, 64.48% lower than the cycle’s highest point 408.70 (2022-05-11), and 117.03% higher than the lowest point 66.89 on March 28, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 30th, 2012 to the present)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The price of Petroleum coke produced by local refineries rose sharply this week. The inventory of Petroleum coke produced by local refineries in Shandong was at a medium low level. Downstream enterprises had good enthusiasm for replenishment, and local refineries had good turnover. At present, the port Petroleum coke inventory is at a high level, and the terminal just needs replenishment, so the overall trade is general.

This week, the international crude oil market fluctuated and rose. The expectation of tight supply due to OPEC tightening production in the oil producing country has overshadowed concerns about slowing demand due to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike. The decline of the US dollar provides support for crude oil; The production reduction of the OPEC and its allies (OPEC+) increased supply concerns; The United States will purchase 6 million barrels of crude oil to fill its strategic oil reserves.

The price of calcined coke has slightly increased this week. The trend of metal silicon rose slightly. As of July 9, the average price of 441 # metal silicon in the Spot market was 13740 yuan/ton. The downstream electrolytic aluminum market is fluctuating and declining, with an average price of 18223.33 yuan/ton as of July 9th. Downstream enterprises have good enthusiasm for replenishment, local refining enterprises have good turnover, and the terminal just needs to support the price of local refining Petroleum coke.

Petroleum coke analysts from the business community believe that at present, the inventory of Petroleum coke produced by Shandong Local Refining Co., Ltd. is at a medium low level, downstream enterprises have good enthusiasm for replenishment, local refining enterprises have good turnover and investment, and the terminal just needs to support the price of Petroleum coke produced by Shandong Local Refining Co., Ltd. However, the domestic coking units have been overhauled in succession, and the domestic production of Petroleum coke has increased slightly. In addition, the port Petroleum coke resources are sufficient, and the terminal replenishment capacity is limited. It is expected that in the near future, the local refining of Petroleum coke will be dominated by shocks.

Price trend

In early July, the domestic POM market was positive, with spot prices rising. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of July 7th, the average factory price of domestic POM was 11475 yuan/ton, a decrease of+3.38% compared to the price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

According to the analysis system chart of the commodity market of the Business Society, the formaldehyde market prices in the Shandong region were sorted and operated in early July. The main focus is on the sorting of raw material methanol, and the expected increase in market supply and inventory. Downstream sheet metal factories have poor operating rates due to high temperatures, causing a tug of war between supply and demand. It is expected that formaldehyde prices will mainly fluctuate and adjust in the near future.

On the supply side:

The operating rate of domestic POM enterprises remained high in early July, and some maintenance enterprises in the early stage resumed work. Currently, the industry’s load is about 94% close to full capacity. The high load situation continues, but after initial destocking, the inventory pressure of most enterprises gradually decreases and the supply of goods becomes tight.

In terms of demand:

At present, the POM supply on site has decreased, and the enthusiasm of terminal enterprises for stocking has increased. However, the impact of limited electricity and other factors on downstream enterprises’ operating rates has not improved, and the consumption release situation is average, with limited impact on spot prices. Traders have decent confidence.

Future Market Forecast

The POM market rose this week. The operating rate of domestic polymerization plants remains high, and the supply of goods on site is beginning to be tight. Industry inventory pressure has eased, and supplier support for spot goods is still acceptable. On the demand side, downstream enterprises have started construction on a low level and the order situation is average. There is currently some speculative sentiment on the market, and it is expected that the POM market may rise in the short term due to a decrease in supply.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from June 29th to July 6th, the market price of butadiene in China increased from 5973 yuan/ton to 6362 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 6.51% during the cycle, a month on month increase of 0.60%, and a year-on-year decrease of 38.90%.

Major production enterprises such as Sinopec have raised their factory quotations, which has boosted the mentality of merchants in offering, but downstream companies are resistant to high prices. The transaction of some offshore cargo in South Korea and Southeast Asia is still acceptable, but the price is still lower than the domestic spot price, so it is temporarily difficult to bring a significant boost to the domestic market.

On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: International crude oil prices have fluctuated upwards, and WTI crude oil in the United States was closed on Tuesday. Affected by supply cuts from Saudi Arabia and Russia, prices have increased. In addition, data from the American Chamber of Petroleum (API) shows a significant decrease in US inventory last week. On July 6th, the benchmark price of Brent crude oil in the business community was 76.25 US dollars per barrel, an increase of 2.34% compared to the beginning of this month (74.51 US dollars per barrel).

In terms of Naphtha, the domestic Naphtha market is weak. On July 6th, the benchmark price of Brent crude oil in the business community was 76.25 US dollars per barrel, an increase of 2.34% compared to the beginning of this month (74.51 US dollars per barrel). The cost of butadiene is mixed.

On the supply side, the main production enterprise Sinopec East China Sales Company has raised the price of butadiene by a cumulative 500 yuan/ton, and as of July 6th, the listed price was 6600 yuan/ton. The shutdown of Shandong Weite and Hangzhou Yibang units has had a positive impact on the short-term supply of butadiene.

On the demand side, dragged by cost and demand side bearish factors, the downstream synthetic rubber market is weak and declining, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high, with on-demand procurement being the main focus. The synchronous downtrend of upstream and downstream products affects the industrial chain profits, making it difficult to effectively move down, and it is difficult to find demand support in the butadiene market. The demand for butadiene is weak.

On July 5th, the closing price of butadiene in Asia remained stable: FOB South Korea was quoted at 585-595 US dollars per ton; China CFR report $645-655 per ton. The external price of butadiene in Europe remained stable: FOB Rotterdam closed at $365- $375 per ton; FD Northwestern Europe closed at 555-565 euros/ton.

In the future market forecast, although the supplier price is relatively strong, the external price is still lower than the domestic spot price, causing downstream merchants to be cautious about future market expectations. Butadiene analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic butadiene market will mainly fluctuate and consolidate.

Aluminum prices moved down on July 5th

 
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, on July 5, 2023, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in the East China market was 18326.67 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 1.22%.

In the long term, the current price is in the sideways range after a high price decline, and has been fluctuating in the range of 17500 to 19500 yuan/ton.

Overview of Fundamentals

Supply side: During the rainy season in the southwest region, with the lifting of power load restrictions in Yunnan, it is expected that there will be a production capacity of 1 to 1.3 million tons to resume production, and there is an expected increase in domestic electrolytic aluminum supply; At the same time, there is news of a production reduction in Shandong. Overall, there is an expected increase in the supply of electrolytic aluminum in China.

On the demand side: The weekly operating rate of downstream processing enterprises is expected to decrease month on month, and there may be no significant improvement near the off-season in the future. The overall weakness of terminal real estate is still weak, but there is support for the completion end of the short-term insured delivery policy, with weak data on new construction projects, and stronger demand for aluminum downstream in the near term than in the long term; Looking forward to the growth of new energy vehicles, photovoltaic, and ultra-high voltage industries in the later stage.

July aluminum price or 18000 yuan/ton first-line horizontal range

Aluminum ingot inventory is still at a historical low level, and Yunnan production is expected to release. From a cost perspective, in terms of alumina, due to the resumption of electrolytic aluminum production capacity in Yunnan and the news that local alumina production capacity will be reduced due to mine reclamation in Henan, the short-term volatility of alumina prices is relatively strong, and the cost support is slightly strengthened. Short term supply pressure may become prominent at the end of July, and it is expected that the social inventory of aluminum ingots will accumulate in July. Short term aluminum prices will move sideways around the 18000 price range.

Trade name: Potassium chloride (imported)

Latest price (July 4th): 2725 yuan/ton

The price of imported Potassium chloride in the domestic market fell slightly on July 4, down 50 yuan/ton, or 1.80%, from July 3. At present, the port’s 62% self raised price of white potassium is around 2400-2500 yuan/ton; The self raised price of 60% Dahong granules at the port is around 2700-2800 yuan/ton. Border trade accounts for 62% of Russian white potassium at around 2200-2300 yuan/ton. The arrival price of Potassium chloride in domestic salt lakes is about 2400-2500 yuan/ton. The international potassium fertilizer market has slightly declined. The downstream potassium carbonate market declined slightly, while the Potassium nitrate market rose slightly. The downstream purchasing enthusiasm was general.

In the future, the price of Potassium chloride in China may fall slightly, mainly due to consolidation. The import market price of Potassium chloride is about 2700 yuan/ton.

The price of plasticizers fluctuated and stabilized in the first half of the year

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the plasticizer market fluctuated and adjusted extensively in the first half of the year, and the overall plasticizer price stabilized. As of June 30th, the DOP price was 9666.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.85% compared to January 1st, when the DOP price was 9750 yuan/ton; On June 30th, the price of DOTP was 9750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.51% compared to January 1st, when DOTP was 9800 yuan/ton; On June 30th, the price of DBP was 8787.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.14% compared to January 1st, when DBP was 9566.67 yuan/ton. In the first half of the year, the overall demand for plasticizers was weak, with sufficient supply of raw materials such as isooctanol and n-butanol. The cost of plasticizers was weakened and lowered, and the prices of plasticizers were fluctuating and stabilizing. In the relatively stable plasticizer market in the first half of the year, there were two brief peak periods. After the Spring Festival and May Day, plasticizer prices briefly soared, but demand was weak, and the support for plasticizer increases could not be sustained. After a brief increase, plasticizer prices quickly fell back and quickly broke through pre holiday prices.

Weak consolidation of isooctanol prices in the first half of the year

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of June 30th, the price of isooctanol was 9350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.94% from January 1st at 9733.33 yuan/ton. In the first half of the year, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and adjusted widely, resulting in a decrease in overall isooctanol prices, a decrease in the cost of plasticizer products, and insufficient support for the increase in plasticizers.

In the first half of the year, the market for raw material phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell

According to the market analysis system for phthalic anhydride products of the Business Society, as of June 30th, the quoted price for phthalic anhydride was 7700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.50% compared to the price of 8062.50 yuan/ton on January 1st. In the first quarter, the price of phthalic anhydride was affected by the increase in raw material prices, causing a fluctuation and increase in the price of phthalic anhydride. In the second quarter, the raw material of phthalic anhydride decreased, coupled with the price drop of naphthalene phthalic anhydride, the price of ortho phthalic anhydride significantly decreased. Overall, in the first half of the year, the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and decreased, resulting in a decrease in the cost of plasticizer raw materials and an increase in the downward pressure on plasticizers.

The price of n-butanol fluctuated significantly in the first half of the year

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of June 30th, the price of n-butanol was 7316.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.41% compared to January 1st, when the price of n-butanol was 8166.67 yuan/ton. In the first half of the year, the price of n-butanol plummeted significantly, with sufficient supply and weak demand for n-butanol. As the main downstream of n-butanol, the cost of plasticizer DBP decreased. In the first half of the year, DBP prices fluctuated and fell, increasing the downward pressure on plasticizers.

Future expectations

Analysts from Business Society’s plasticizer product data believe that the demand for plasticizers remained weak in the first half of the year, and there was insufficient support for the rise of plasticizers; On the raw material side, the prices of isooctanol have weakened and consolidated, the prices of phthalic anhydride have fluctuated and fallen, the prices of n-butanol have significantly decreased, the cost of plasticizers has decreased, the prices of plasticizer DBP have plummeted, and the downward pressure on plasticizer products has increased. In the future, demand remains weak, with limited support for rising prices of raw materials such as isooctanol, phthalic anhydride, and n-butanol. The cost of plasticizers has decreased, and the operating rate of plasticizer enterprises is around 60%. The supply of plasticizers is sufficient, and demand is weak, with insufficient cost support. It is expected that plasticizer prices will fluctuate and rise in the future.

List of ethylene glycol prices

According to data from Business News Agency, on June 30th, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 3963.33 yuan/ton, with a monthly decrease of 3.41%. The prices in various regions are as follows:

The price range for spot goods executed by mainstream manufacturers in East China is between 3800-4075 yuan/ton; The spot price of ethylene glycol in the South China market is 3900 yuan/ton, while the price range for mainstream manufacturers in Central China is 3850 yuan/ton; The spot price for mainstream manufacturers in North China is 4150 yuan/ton.

On June 28th, the CIF price of ethylene glycol in China was $448/ton, a decrease of $2/ton; The CIF Southeast Asia price is 473 US dollars per ton.

At present, the price of coal based ethylene glycol is relatively low, with factory prices ranging from 3450 to 3500 yuan/ton.

June Ethylene Glycol Fundamentals

From the perspective of the supply side, there are plans to restart domestic maintenance devices in the near future, and there is an expectation of a rebound in supply in the future. A 750000 ton/year ethylene glycol plant in Zhejiang recently restarted, which had previously shut down in early May. The daily load of the 700000 ton unit of Fujian Gulei Petrochemical has been reduced from 85% to around 80%, which has little impact on the overall supply.

In terms of demand: The overall production and sales of polyester fibers in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have declined, and the production of weaving machines in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has declined slightly. Currently, the polyester load has not changed significantly, and further observation is needed.

In terms of imports, some maintenance devices in the Asian region are planned to restart in the early stage, and it is expected that the import volume of ethylene glycol may rebound in the future.

July ethylene glycol variables

At the end of June, coal and ethylene prices bottomed out and rebounded. The news of Iran’s installation drove up methanol prices, supporting ethylene glycol prices to some extent on the cost side. The decline in crude oil inventory in July, coupled with high temperatures, has sparked market concerns about electricity consumption. The rise in overseas natural gas has boosted energy prices, and crude oil has continued to rebound. Coupled with domestic macroeconomic policy expectations, there are some cost side positive expectations to some extent.

From the perspective of supply and demand fundamentals, there is an expectation of an increase in the supply side of ethylene glycol in July. Downstream demand is affected by the weakness of the terminal, and it remains to be seen whether the current high start-up rate can be maintained. Overall, the expectation of a weakening of ethylene glycol supply and demand month on month is expected.

The dynamic game between cost and supply sides may intensify in July, and it is expected that ethylene glycol will continue to experience weak fluctuations in July.