The domestic acetic acid market is in a weak downward trend, with price trends continuing to decline, raw material prices rising, acetic acid profits decreasing, stable operation of on-site acetic acid enterprises, sufficient market supply, low downstream operating rate on the demand side, insufficient follow-up on market procurement, slow shipment of acetic acid, increased inventory of manufacturers, pessimistic mentality among operators, continuous downward movement of acetic acid prices, and weak market operation.

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, as of July 28, the average price of acetic acid in East China was 3100 yuan/ton, down 3.12% from the price of 3200 yuan/ton on July 22, up 7.51% from the beginning of the month. As of July 28th, the market prices of acetic acid in various regions during the week were as follows:

The upstream raw material methanol market continues to rise. As of July 28th, the average price in the domestic market was 2281.67 yuan/ton, an overall increase of 2.56% compared to the price of 2224.17 yuan/ton on July 22nd. The cost support is stable, with a narrow increase in downstream equipment operation, an increase in replenishment demand, a positive demand side, and an increase in methanol prices.

The downstream acetic anhydride market continues to decline. As of July 28th, the factory price of acetic anhydride was 5087.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.93% compared to the price of 5187.50 yuan/ton on July 22nd. The price of upstream acetic acid has decreased, and the cost support for acetic anhydride is insufficient. Acetic anhydride enterprises have resumed operations, and the market supply is sufficient. Downstream demand has not followed up enough. Market trading is average, and the price of acetic anhydride has declined.

In the future market forecast, acetic acid analysts from Business Society believe that the operation of acetic acid plants is stable, the market supply is sufficient, the demand side operating rate is low, acetic acid manufacturers’ shipments are not smooth, and downstream support is not weak. Under the supply and demand game, it is expected that the acetic acid market will operate weakly in the future.

Overview of Boric Acid Market

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of boric acid fell first and then rose in July, causing sideways fluctuations. As of July 27th, the average price of boric acid in the domestic market was 7387.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.34% compared to the beginning of the month, but a decrease of 8.80% compared to the beginning of the year at 8100 yuan/ton.

At present, the external quotation for imported goods is concentrated at 7000-8200 yuan/ton (the actual transaction price of different brands, specifications, and products is mainly negotiated). According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of imported boric acid is 7590.91 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.48% compared to the average market price at the beginning of the month.

Business Society Boric Acid Analysts believe that boric acid is gradually entering the long short game stage, with prices mainly fluctuating sideways.

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the domestic PTA market, after a brief decline, has recently shown a slight upward trend. As of July 26, the average price of Spot market in East China was 5916 yuan/ton, up 0.58% from July 18.

At present, there is still some support for costs. Saudi Arabia and Russia have further pushed for production cuts, supply tightening expectations remain unchanged, and US gasoline demand has rebounded, causing international crude oil prices to continue to rise. As of July 25th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $79.63 per barrel, while the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $83.25 per barrel. PX oscillates strongly with crude oil, and is in a cumulative inventory cycle. The domestic PX operating load is low, but the landing of new PTA production capacity on the demand side drives the release of new points. The contradiction between PX supply and demand has not yet been highlighted.

From the recent changes in PTA’s own devices, restart and maintenance coexist, and the overall load has increased. Currently, the industry’s operating rate is around 80%. In addition, the 2.5 million ton new project of Hengli Petrochemical in Huizhou is gradually being mass-produced, and the supply side has increased.

In terms of downstream demand, polyester overall maintains a high starting point of over 90%. As raw materials rise, the cash flow pressure of polyester factories increases, and inventory pressure has increased, with short fiber inventory at a high level. The operating rate of weaving machines in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces has slightly decreased to below 65%, and the high operating rate of weaving machines has dropped back. Therefore, the start of weaving machines in Jiangsu and Zhejiang continued to decline, with increasing pressure on polyester inventory and cash flow, a decrease in polyester load, and some negative feedback from the terminal.

Analysts from Business Society believe that in the short term, the cost side is still positive, while crude oil and PX are still relatively strong. However, the pressure on PTA supply and demand is gradually emerging, with device restarts, more load increases, and the release of new production capacity, PTA supply will be further relaxed. In addition, during the off-season of terminal demand, downstream polyester cash flow and inventory pressure increase. Under the game of strong costs and weak supply and demand, PTA prices will mainly fluctuate and adjust in the future.

Zinc prices have improved and increased this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of July 25th, the zinc price was 20442 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.74% compared to the fluctuating zinc price of 20292 yuan/ton on July 19th. This week, the non-ferrous metal sector experienced a volatile and upward trend, which is beneficial for the metal zinc market. Zinc prices have experienced a volatile and upward trend this week.

Non ferrous metal sector up

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the nonferrous metal index on July 25 was 1112 points, up 2 points from yesterday, down 27.70% from the cycle’s highest point of 1538 points (2021-10-18), and up 83.20% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24, 2015 (note: the cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now). China’s strong policies are gradually being implemented, and expectations of macroeconomic recovery are increasing. Wall Street generally expects the Federal Reserve to restart the pace of interest rate hikes, but at the same time, it is expected that the Federal Reserve’s rate hike in July may be the last rate hike of the year, leading to a rise in London’s non-ferrous metals. This week, the non-ferrous metal sector saw a general rise, with macroeconomic benefits and a rebound in the zinc market.

Future Market Forecast

Data analysts from Business Society believe that China’s strong support policy has been implemented, the US interest rate hike may come to an end, macroeconomic sentiment will improve, and non-ferrous metals will generally rise. In the future, strong supply still exists, weak demand may improve, and it is expected that zinc prices will fluctuate and consolidate in the future.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, starting from July 10th, there were positive factors supporting the tightening of supply and a significant increase in the market. On July 24th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 1200 yuan/ton. On July 10th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 960 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 25%.

Lido Supports the Rise of Hydrogen Peroxide Market

Since July 10th, some hydrogen peroxide manufacturers have not yet started up, and the supply of hydrogen peroxide in the market is tightening. Hydrogen peroxide manufacturers are mainly overpriced, and the market continues to operate at a high level. The mainstream quotation of hydrogen peroxide manufacturers in Shandong region is 1250 yuan/ton, while the mainstream quotation of hydrogen peroxide manufacturers in Hebei region is 1150 yuan/ton. The mainstream quotation of hydrogen peroxide manufacturers in Anhui region is 1250 yuan/ton, with an increase of about 200 yuan/ton. The market is accelerating and transactions are good.

Li Bing, a chemical analyst at Business Society, believes that the supply gap is still there and the future market for hydrogen peroxide will remain high.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic spandex market has temporarily stabilized this week (July 17-22), with an average price of 33500 yuan/ton in the 40D market as of July 22, which is unchanged from the beginning of the week. The current raw material prices are still at a high level, and the spandex industry is experiencing losses. The operating rate remains low. As of July 20, 2023, the overall industry operating rate of the domestic spandex industry is around 72%.

The focus of the raw material pure MDI market is relatively strong, and there are few spot goods in the market. Additionally, factories have plans to continue reducing production, which limits their ability to add new orders, and their cost support continues to strengthen. The overall operating rate of the PTMEG industry is around 72%. The load of two 46000 ton/year PTMEG units of Sinopec Great Wall Energy and Chemical in Ningxia is around 90%, and the load of two 30000 ton/year PTMEG units of Henan Energy and Chemical is around 60%. The mainstream factory’s 1800 molecular weight quotation is around 19500, and some factories do not provide external quotations.

Recently, terminal inventory has gradually accumulated, and with the high temperature in summer and off-season factors, the workload of most downstream weaving factories is relatively low. Currently, there is no substantial improvement in both domestic and export sales of the terminal, and there may be further room for decline in construction.

Analysts from Business Society believe that the current cost side support is acceptable, but the actual demand side is bearish, with poor market trading enthusiasm and average enthusiasm for raw material stocking. Under low demand and rising cost pressures, it is expected that the spandex market price will remain mainly on a wait-and-see basis in the short term.

Zinc price range fluctuated and consolidated in mid July

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of July 19th, the zinc price was 20292 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.27% compared to the fluctuating zinc price of 20346 yuan/ton on July 9th. There is no upward support for the fundamentals of the zinc market, and the zinc price range fluctuated and consolidated in mid July.

Long Short Game in Zinc Market

The US CPI for June, announced in July, only increased by 3% year-on-year, lower than the market estimate of 3.1%. The unexpected decline in CPI data has led to a decline in the Federal Reserve’s expectation of aggressive interest rate hikes. As of July 13, the U.S. Dollar Index had fallen for six consecutive trading days. The U.S. Dollar Index fell, and the non-ferrous metal market was strong.

Before the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike in July came to fruition, macroeconomic sentiment in the market was fluctuating. Traders believed that July would see a 25 basis point interest rate hike as scheduled, while the US dollar raised interest rates, weakening the non-ferrous metal market. On July 18th, LME zinc inventory increased by over 10000 tons, and LME zinc inventory increased to 80375 tons, breaking a new high since the end of June. The spot circulation is relatively loose, coupled with the continued impact of imported sources of goods. In July and August, some smelters on the supply side will enter the maintenance period, which may bring about significant supply reductions in August. Zinc smelting processing costs will rise, and the decrease in zinc smelting production will be limited. At the same time, imported zinc will also provide a certain supplement to the supply side, and the zinc market supply side may maintain a relatively loose supply, resulting in a bearish zinc market situation.

Future Market Forecast

According to data analysts from Business Society, macroeconomic sentiment is fluctuating, and strong support for non-ferrous metals is insufficient. LME zinc inventory has increased significantly, and domestic zinc supply is limited. The zinc market has sufficient supply. In the future, strong supply and weak demand will be the basic trend for a considerable period of time, and it is expected that zinc prices will consolidate weakly in the future.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of the business community, this week’s (7.07-7.14) “V” trend of 1 # tin ingot in East China, the average market price was 234210 yuan/ton on July 7, and 233310 yuan/ton on July 14, a weekly drop of 0.38%.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the monthly K-bar chart, it can be seen that after November 2022, tin prices have risen continuously for three months due to macroeconomic factors. Since February 2023, the price has dropped by 11.35% per month, and the trend of tin prices has fluctuated narrowly in the past three months. From the weekly K-bar chart, it can be seen that the tin ingot market has been rising for eight consecutive weeks.

In terms of the futures market, Shanghai tin prices fell first and then rose this week. As the Wa mining ban approaches August and some domestic enterprises undergo maintenance, supply expectations are expected to tighten, and tin prices have surged close to the highest point in the year. But ultimately, due to high domestic inventory and poor downstream demand, the rise in tin prices was weak. On the supply side, the tight supply at the mining end is beginning to emerge, and the demand side is still in the off-season, and the market expects downstream demand to remain weak in the third quarter. In terms of inventory, domestic inventory is still at a high level. In general, tin is still in a pattern of weak supply and demand, and high inventory in China is still a factor restricting the upward trend of tin prices. With tin prices rising all the way, market transactions are generally weak. Downstream solder enterprises slow down procurement, mainly consuming inventory in the early stage, and transactions in the Spot market are light. In the future, the Business Society believes that tin prices are still following macro fluctuations in the near future. As August approaches, the focus will be on the further impact of Wa news on the market.

Related data:

On July 16th, the base metal index stood at 1222 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 24.38% from the cycle’s highest point of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 90.34% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, there were a total of 14 commodities in the non-ferrous sector on the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 28th week of 2023 (7.10-7.14), with 2 commodities increasing by more than 5%, accounting for 8.7% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The top three commodities were Dysprosium(III) oxide (6.00%), silver (5.08%) and zinc (3.05%). There are a total of 8 products that have decreased compared to the previous month, with the top 3 products falling respectively being neodymium metal (-3.39%), antimony (-3.14%), and praseodymium metal (-2.39%). This week’s average increase or decrease was 0.95%.

In the first half of July, the price of dichloromethane rose. According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, as of July 15, the average price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong was 2540 yuan/ton, up 8.55% from 2340 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The price of raw methanol rose slightly, and the center of gravity of dichloromethane cost moved up slightly; The supply side of methane chloride declined slightly, and the downstream actively stocked up. The inventory pressure in the region was not large, driving the price of dichloromethane higher.

In the first half of the month, the start of the methane chloride plant slightly decreased, and the overall supply pressure slightly eased.

In the first half of the month, the price of raw methanol rose slightly, and the cost center of dichloromethane moved up. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of July 15th, the spot price of methanol was 2314 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.15% from 2180 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

The downstream refrigerant, pharmaceutical intermediates, diluent solvent industry started to fluctuate slightly, and the downstream gradually replenished at the beginning of the month, which just needed support for dichloromethane. However, as the price of dichloromethane rose, the market transactions turned thin again.

Future market forecast: Analysts from the methane chloride data of the business society believe that the downstream demand for dichloromethane is slightly on the sidelines at present, but the low pressure of supply in the region has formed a certain support for the price of dichloromethane. In addition, the price of raw materials is rising, and it is expected that the market of dichloromethane will be strong in the short term, and it will still be volatile and consolidation in the medium and long term if the demand does not increase significantly.

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, as of June 30, the quotation of Aluminium fluoride in China was 9900 yuan/ton, down 18.85% from 12200 yuan/ton of Aluminium fluoride on January 1. The price of raw materials fluctuated and fell, the cost of Aluminium fluoride fell, and the price of Aluminium fluoride fell in the first half of the year; Affected by the delayed price rise of raw material fluorite and hydrofluoric acid, the price of Aluminium fluoride rose first and then fell from May to June, and the overall market rise of Aluminium fluoride was not supported enough.

Annual price comparison chart of Aluminium fluoride

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the price of Aluminium fluoride in 2023 will drop significantly compared with that in 2022; The price of Aluminium fluoride increased year on year compared with that of 20 and 21 years ago. In June, the price of Aluminium fluoride was relatively low, and the downward pressure of Aluminium fluoride was still limited.

The price of raw material hydrofluoric acid fluctuates and falls

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, on June 30th, the price of hydrofluoric acid was 9657.14 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22.74% compared to the price of 12500 yuan/ton on January 1st at the beginning of the year. The demand for downstream refrigerants is sluggish. In the first quarter, the price of hydrofluoric acid dropped sharply, with a maximum decline of 22.29%. Influenced by environmental protection and the unexpected shutdown of mines in the upstream, the price of hydrofluoric acid rose slightly in April, the peak season of downstream refrigerants was not strong, and the demand for hydrofluoric acid weakened. The price of hydrofluoric acid fell sharply from May to June, and the overall cost of Aluminium fluoride raw materials fell. In the first half of the year, Aluminium fluoride fell under great pressure.

The price of raw material fluorite fluctuates and falls

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, on June 30th, the price of fluorite was 3117.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.53% compared to the 3300 yuan/ton price on January 1st. Downstream off-season demand is weak, coupled with an increase in fluorite supply, resulting in a significant drop in fluorite prices from January to February; Due to environmental requirements and unexpected shutdown of fluorite mines, fluorite prices fluctuated and increased from March to April; The downstream peak season is not strong, and the demand for fluorite is less than expected. The rise of fluorite loses support, and the price of fluorite fluctuated and fell in June.

Market Overview and Forecast

The analysts of Aluminium fluoride industry from the business agency believe that the demand is cold, and the prices of fluorite and hydrofluoric acid fluctuated and fell in the first quarter; During the peak season, prices of fluorite and hydrofluoric acid rose first and then fell in the second quarter; In general, the cost of Aluminium fluoride raw materials has dropped significantly. In the downstream, the demand for electrolytic aluminum is weak, and the demand for Aluminium fluoride is insufficient. In general, in the first half of the year, the cost of Aluminium fluoride fell and demand was weak, so the downward pressure of Aluminium fluoride increased, and the price of Aluminium fluoride dropped sharply. In the future, the refrigerant peak season ended, the demand for fluorite and hydrofluoric acid was expected to decline, and the price of fluorite and hydrofluoric acid rose too weak to increase the downward pressure. The demand for downstream electrolytic aluminum was expected to recover, the demand for Aluminium fluoride was expected to rise slightly, the demand for cost reduction was expected to recover, and Aluminium fluoride was mixed with space, The inventory of Aluminium fluoride periodicals is high, and there is almost no risk of demand shortage. Cost factors mainly affect the trend of Aluminium fluoride. It is expected that the price of Aluminium fluoride will fall slightly in the future.