Zinc prices fluctuated and rose in June

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of June 29th, the zinc price was 20250 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.95% compared to June 1st, which was 19480 yuan/ton. Macro positive news has increased, and the zinc market is positive, with zinc prices fluctuating and rising in June.

The Federal Reserve suspended interest rate hikes in June, macroeconomic benefits

A number of economic data in the United States reflect that the U.S. economy is more resilient than Europe. The Federal Reserve suspended interest rate hikes in June, and the recovery of macroeconomic sentiment pulled up U.S. stocks. In June, the U.S. Dollar Index fell continuously, hitting a new low since mid May; The trend of non-ferrous metal production has increased, the international macroeconomic environment has warmed up, and the zinc market is positive.

However, the overall inflation in the United States is still at a high level. Federal Reserve Powell released the signal of continuous interest rate increase. In late June, the U.S. Dollar Index rose in a volatile manner. The support for the international economy’s macro positive weakened, and the zinc market’s positive weakened.

Expected decrease in zinc market supply

From the trend chart of zinc concentrate processing fees, it can be seen that in June, the zinc concentrate processing fees stabilized, and zinc smelting enterprises showed average enthusiasm for starting operations. The supply of zinc in the market was temporarily stable, and the support for the increase in zinc prices was insufficient.

Sweden’s Boliden has suspended production of the largest zinc mine in Europe, and the Ronnskar smelter has shut down due to a fire, leading to a decrease in supply expectations for the European zinc market and increased support for the rise of the zinc market.

Future Market Forecast

According to data analysts from Business Society, the international economic environment rebounded in June, with non-ferrous metals bullish and bullish, while zinc prices followed suit. China has increased its support for real estate, infrastructure investment is improving, and the central bank’s MLF has cut interest rates. This has led to an increase in positive news for the domestic economy, stimulating a rebound in market sentiment and a rebound in the zinc market. Zinc smelters in Europe have ceased production, and the supply of zinc in the market is expected to decrease. Multiple positive factors stimulate the fluctuating rise of zinc prices. In the future, the expectation of macroeconomic recovery weakens, the supply of zinc is relatively sufficient, and the support for the rise of zinc market is insufficient. It is expected that zinc prices will fluctuate and consolidate in the future.

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the decline of the domestic PTA market slowed down in June, mainly due to shock adjustment. As of June 28, the average price of Spot market in East China was 5631 yuan/ton, down 0.51% from the beginning of the month, down 18.73% year on year.

There is no obvious driving force on the supply and demand side of crude oil, and the oil price range fluctuates. As of June 27th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $67.70 per barrel, while the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $72.51 per barrel. However, the unplanned production reduction and operation of PX large factories in June caused concerns about the tight supply of PX, providing positive support for the cost side of PTA. At present, overseas PX supply has resumed, new domestic devices have been successfully discharged, and PX supply is becoming more relaxed.

The PTA market is facing destocking in June, but there have been many restarts of domestic PTA devices since late July. Currently, the operating load of PTA devices has increased to over 80%, and it is expected to enter the accumulation phase after July.

The off-season of downstream terminals has dragged down the demand market, with some weaving factories shutting down for holidays or reducing operating rates. The comprehensive operating rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is around 60%, and there is currently no sign of improvement in the domestic and foreign markets. The performance of the foreign trade market is poor. According to customs data, China’s cumulative exports of textile and clothing products from January to May amounted to 118.2 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 5.3%, including a 9.4% year-on-year decrease in textiles and a 1.0% year-on-year decrease in clothing. In May, textiles decreased by 14.1% year-on-year, while clothing decreased by 12.4%.

Analysts from Business Society believe that there is still support for the cost side stage, but there is an expected increase in PTA inventory and supply, and the off-season characteristics of terminal textiles from July to August will become more obvious. Negative feedback on demand is heating up, and it is expected that PTA prices may operate weakly in July.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average factory price of ammonium sulfate in China was 753 yuan/ton on June 1st, and 663 yuan/ton on June 27th. The price of ammonium sulfate fell by 11.95% this month.

2、 Market analysis

The ammonium sulfate market continued to weaken this month, with prices fluctuating and falling. This month, the low level of coking grade ammonium sulfate was sorted and the price was adjusted narrowly. The quotation for domestic ammonium sulfate has been lowered. The international market for ammonium sulfate remains weak, with fewer orders. The downstream composite fertilizer market is generally weak, with on-demand procurement being the main focus. This month, urea prices weakened, negatively affecting the ammonium sulfate market. As of June 27th, the mainstream factory quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Henan region is around 670 yuan/ton. The mainstream factory quotation for domestic ammonium sulfate in Shandong is around 700 yuan/ton.

According to the weekly fluctuations from March 27, 2023 to June 19, 2023, it can be seen that the rise and fall of domestic ammonium sulfate cycle are mixed. There was a significant decline in June, with the largest decline of -4.47% in the week ending June 5th.

This month, the market trend of downstream compound fertilizer was weak, and the price was low. The trend of composite fertilizer raw materials is not good, and cost support is weak. Downstream demand is sluggish, the market is sluggish, and short-term market conditions are difficult to improve.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Analysts from the Business Society believe that the demand for ammonium sulfate in domestic and foreign markets has been poor recently, and the market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. The downstream market is sluggish, with small purchases of raw materials being the main focus, and dealers are cautious in their operations. It is expected that the price of ammonium sulfate will continue to decline in the short term.

According to the market analysis system of the Business Society, in June, during a long short game, the hydrogen peroxide market continued to decline in the early stage, with a drop of over 6%. At the end of the month, it experienced a significant rebound, with a daily increase of over 6.8%. Throughout June, hydrogen peroxide rose by 1.29%. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 773 yuan/ton. On June 26th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 783 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.29%.

Long Short Game: The Hydrogen Peroxide Market in June experienced ups and downs

At the beginning of the month, due to weak terminal demand and loose supply, hydrogen peroxide manufacturers had weak confidence in price support, and multiple bearish pressures led to a continued weak and downward trend in the hydrogen peroxide market. The market has been declining continuously for more than half a month, and the mainstream quotation has dropped to around 720 yuan/ton, a decrease of nearly 7%.

Starting from the middle of the month, the demand in the terminal printing and papermaking industry has improved, and the hydrogen peroxide market has gradually rebounded. At the end of the month, there has been a significant rebound, with an increase of over 8%, and the overall increase of hydrogen peroxide has exceeded 1%.

Li Bing, a chemical analyst at Business Society, believes that some hydrogen peroxide manufacturers will restart their hydrogen peroxide devices in the future, with loose supply. It is expected that the hydrogen peroxide market may experience a decline in July.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of 55% powdered ammonium phosphate in China on June 19th was 2583 yuan/ton. On June 25th, the average market price of 55% powdered ammonium phosphate in China was 2550 yuan/ton. This week, the market price of monoammonium phosphate decreased by 1.29%.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average market price of 64% diammonium phosphate in China on June 19th was 3810 yuan/ton. On June 25th, the average market price of 64% diammonium phosphate in China was 3812 yuan/ton. This week, the market price of diammonium phosphate increased by 0.18%.

2、 Market analysis

On Monday this week, the price of ammonium decreased and ammonium chloride adjusted narrowly. This week, the market for raw material phosphate ore and sulfur weakened, and prices continued to decline, weakening cost support. Currently in the off-season of demand, the demand side consolidation performance is weak, and the market trading atmosphere is poor. Downstream procurement is on demand. As of June 25th, the market price of 55 powdered ammonium in Hubei region is around 2400-2500 yuan/ton, while the market price of 55 powdered ammonium in Henan region is around 2500-2600 yuan/ton, with actual negotiations being the main focus. The quotation for 64% diammonium in Shandong is around 3500-3800 yuan/ton, while the quotation for 57% diammonium in Shandong is around 2650-3000 yuan/ton. The actual transaction is negotiated.

In terms of raw sulfur, domestic sulfur prices have fallen this week. The sulfur manufacturer’s equipment is operating normally, with sufficient market supply and average enthusiasm for downstream market entry. The market trading atmosphere is light, and the refinery’s shipment is not smooth. The operator’s mentality is not good, and the quotation is lowered to stimulate shipment. The focus of market transactions has shifted downward, and the short-term sulfur market is weak.

In terms of raw phosphorus ore, the domestic phosphorus ore market as a whole showed a weak decline this week. Prior to the holiday, the downstream stage stocking of phosphate ore was generally carried out, and the weak demand side continued to loosen the support for the phosphate ore market. Phosphate ore shipments gradually slowed down, and some mining companies implemented early shipment plans. The supply and demand sides of phosphate ore showed a stalemate, and some mining companies started to sell at discounted prices, lowering the prices of mid to high grade phosphate ore shipments. As of June 25th, the domestic market price of 30% grade phosphate ore is around 950-1080 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Analysts from the Business Society believe that the market for ammonium phosphate has recently stabilized slightly and overall demand is light. Downstream restocking is the main demand, and the current market quotation is chaotic. It is expected that the market price of ammonium phosphate will be weak in the short term, and the main focus will be on consolidation and operation.

Recently, the domestic PTA Spot market has shown a volatile upward trend. As of June 22, the average price of Spot market in East China was 5695 yuan/ton, up 1.77% from June 12.

The burden reduction of large raw material PX devices has led to a decrease in operating load, resulting in a tightening of PX supply. In the short term, prices may strengthen, providing positive support for PTA.

The profit performance of downstream polyester products is fair, the overall inventory of the market is reasonably controllable, and the factory production enthusiasm is high. At present, the polyester industry starts at more than 90%. And after the new device is put into operation, the load gradually increases, and it is expected that the overall market supply will slightly increase.

However, there have been many restarts of PTA devices in China recently, and the current operating load of PTA devices has increased to around 80%. At the same time, the off-season of terminals has dragged down the demand market, with some weaving factories shutting down for holidays or reducing operating rates. The comprehensive operating rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is around 60%, and there is currently no sign of improvement in the domestic and foreign markets.

Analysts from Business Society believe that short-term crude oil prices fluctuate widely, and a tightening of PX supply may result in strong cost support for PTA. Downstream polyester factories currently do not have the power to actively reduce load, and will still maintain a relatively vigorous operating state. But in the situation where it is difficult to open terminal orders, there is still pressure on the demand side. Overall, short-term PTA is expected to be mainly adjusted with cost fluctuations.

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the TDI price in East China has continued to rise since June. As of June 20, the average market price in East China was 17800 yuan/ton, 1800 yuan/ton higher than the price of 16000 yuan/ton on June 1, up 11.25% in the month.

The domestic TDI market operated strongly. At the beginning of the month, the market performance was quiet, and the price of the floor traders was mainly stable. Then, it was heard that a large factory in Shanghai cooperated with the park to reduce the load in early June. The attitude of the industry was bullish, and the TDI offer moved up. Later, BASF equipment parking in Shanghai, Covestro weekly executive price hike and other supplier information were released. The intention of the supplier to support the market was gradually obvious. The trade market followed the guidance of the big factory news, and the TDI offer continued to rise. The market supply was tight, There is strong bullish sentiment on the market, with TDI prices showing a significant upward trend.

The upstream toluene market is operating weakly, with the domestic average price of toluene at around 7110 yuan/ton as of June 20th, an overall decrease of 0.56% compared to the price of 7150 yuan/ton on June 1st. The international crude oil price is relatively strong, and the profit of toluene is declining. Affected by market pessimism, downstream demand is weak, and the market mainly focuses on purchasing hard demand. The toluene industry has a cautious attitude and adjusts prices based on inventory consumption, resulting in a weak and volatile toluene market.

After market analysis, TDI data analysts from the business agency believe that on the supply side, some factories have low load, and the market’s spot performance is tight. However, the market mentality has a significant impact, and the supply of goods is tight. Holders’ quotations are bound to rise. Downstream, due to the traditional off-season of the terminal market, demand follow-up is limited, and there is resistance to high priced TDI, which limits the increase in TDI. It is expected that the overall operation of the future market will be strong, with prices may fluctuate in a narrow range, Follow up on specific issues.

This week (6.12-6.19), the market of chloroform declined slightly. According to the data of the business society, as of June 19, the price of chloroform bulk water in Shandong was 2075 yuan/ton, down 2.35% from 2125 yuan/ton last Monday. The price of raw material methanol rose slightly but remained at a low level, and the cost support of chloroform was weak; Some downstream enterprises purchased a small amount of goods, and the transaction of chloroform market was flat. Chloroform market fluctuated and fell back.

This week (6.12-6.19), there was a slight fluctuation in the start of the methane chloride plant.

This week (6.12-6.19), the price of raw methanol rose slightly but remained low, and the cost support of chloroform remained weak. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of June 19th, the spot price of methanol was 2065 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.48% compared to the 2015 yuan/ton last Monday.

Short term replenishment orders ended, coupled with a small amount of low demand for domestic refrigerant starting, the price of some downstream refrigerant R22 enterprises for shutdown and maintenance was temporarily stable, and chloroform fell slightly in the short term. In addition, the total production quota of R22 in 2023 was reduced by 19% to 181800 tons, which made it difficult to improve the demand for chloroform in the medium and long term.

According to the methane chloride data analysts of Business Society, although the overall domestic demand support for chloroform is weak at present, it is expected that the chloroform market will narrow in the later period.

This week’s lead market (6.9-6.16) fluctuated upwards, with the average price in the domestic market at 15055 yuan/ton over the weekend and 15265 yuan/ton over the weekend, up 1.39%.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. Since the market entered September, the expectations of downstream battery companies have increased during the peak season, driving the price of primary lead to rise. After the peak season ended, prices continued to weaken, and the market trend was somewhat volatile.

In terms of the futures market, the U.S. Dollar Index plunged this week, and Lun Lead went up. The price of lead was boosted and kept up. The Spot market mostly followed the fluctuation of Shanghai Lead, and the price was the main player this week. In terms of supply and demand, supply has been slightly tight this week, and primary lead manufacturers have recently started maintenance, resulting in an overall decline in operating rates. Due to losses during the off-season, recycled lead companies have actively limited production and reduced operating rates, leading to a tightening of lead ingot supply this week compared to the previous period, boosting market sentiment. In terms of demand, the downstream consumer end is still in the off-season, and battery companies have production reduction plans. The procurement of raw materials and power is insufficient, and most of them maintain just in demand procurement. In terms of waste batteries, most of the quotations in Henan, Shandong, and other places have followed the rise of lead prices, and discussions in the high market are limited, with only sporadic transactions. The downstream still lacks the support of actual demand, offsetting the good from the supply side. The Spot market as a whole shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. In the future, the Business Society predicts that the main trend will remain weak and volatile in the short term, with limited market volatility in the off-season. We will pay attention to the impact of macro level news on the market in the future.

London Metal Exchange (LME) lead inventory of 36800 tons will be temporarily stable on June 18, 2023 (unit: ton)

On June 18th, the base metal index stood at 1208 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 25.25% from the cycle’s highest point of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 88.16% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

According to the price monitoring of the Business Society, there were a total of 9 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that rose month on month on the list of commodity prices in the 24th week of 2023 (6.12-6.16), with nickel (4.71%), tin (4.05%), and cobalt (3.38%) ranking among the top 3 commodities. There are a total of 8 products that have decreased compared to the previous month, with the top 3 products falling being metal silicon (-2.99%), magnesium (-2.62%), and silver (-1.70%). This week’s average increase or decrease was 0.56%.

According to data monitored by the Business Society, as of June 13th, the average price quoted by domestic premium DMF enterprises was 4850 yuan/ton, and the DMF price showed a narrow and weak trend, falling by 5.6% in the week. Currently, the mainstream price is around 4800 yuan/ton.

This week, the overall DMF market is mainly in a weak position. Since June, the DMF market has shown a continuous downward trend, with prices dropping by 5.6% compared to the same period last week. Currently, the mainstream price range is 4800.00 yuan/ton, and the downstream procurement atmosphere is average. Shipping is slow, and manufacturers are giving up on orders.

Chemical Index: On June 12th, the chemical index reached 820 points, a decrease of 4 points from yesterday, a decrease of 41.43% from the highest point in the cycle of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and an increase of 37.12% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

DMF analysts from Business Society believe that in the short term, the DMF market will operate steadily and weakly.