Overview of ethylene glycol market

 

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According to data from Business News Agency, on May 12th, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4258.33 yuan/ton, with prices in various regions as follows:

 

The price range for spot goods executed by mainstream manufacturers in East China is between 3950-4350 yuan/ton; The spot price of ethylene glycol in the South China market is 4200 yuan/ton, while the price range for mainstream manufacturers in Central China is 4100 yuan/ton; The spot price for mainstream manufacturers in North China is 4300 yuan/ton.

 

List of International CIF Prices

 

On May 12th, the CIF price of ethylene glycol in China was 515 US dollars/ton,; The CIF Southeast Asia price is 528 US dollars/ton.

 

Starting to destock ethylene glycol port inventory

 

At present, inventory is still relatively high. As of May 11th, the inventory of ethylene glycol at the East China main port was 940900 tons, and it began operating in the range of less than 1 million tons. Recently, the main reason for going to the warehouse is that the pace of port shipments has increased. In addition, the number of ports this week is relatively small, and it is expected that the landing month on month ratio will increase next week.

 

Expected growth in overseas supply in May, with off-season maintenance in China

 

Some maintenance devices in North America and Saudi Arabia have been restarted, and the overseas supply increment is clear. Some existing maintenance devices have plans to restart, so it is expected that ethylene glycol production may increase slightly in May. On the domestic side, some enterprises have started to carry out maintenance and cash in.

 

Downstream demand is weak

 

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Downstream, the scale of polyester maintenance has increased, and the polyester load continues to decline, mainly because the terminal is temporarily unable to withstand high priced raw materials, and the operating rate of the weaving machine has decreased. On the one hand, the expectation of overseas economic recession is strong, and terminal foreign trade is mainly dominated by small and medium-sized orders, and the export situation is not optimistic; On the other hand, May is about to usher in the textile off-season, and the current poor acceptance of new orders in the textile market may lead to a decrease in the weaving start-up rate. The negative feedback from the bottom up of terminal shutdown is heating up, and the polyester production reduction continues, which may weaken the demand for raw material ethylene glycol.

 

Weak upward momentum on the spot end

 

At present, the average spot price of ethylene glycol is within a relatively low range in history, but the supply pressure of ethylene glycol is still in the short term. In terms of demand, the start of terminal looms has slightly weakened, and some polyester factories are still in a low start state, suppressing the upward trend of ethylene glycol prices; The fundamentals of ethylene glycol are still weak.

 

Ethylene glycol has been at a negative profit level for a long time, and is currently mainly supported by the weakening of supply caused by mid to long-term production changes and the expected improvement in downstream demand; We still need to wait and see the specific expected landing performance.

 

It is expected that in the short term, the probability of weak and volatile ethylene glycol trading in the future will increase, with an average price range of around 3950-4250 yuan/ton.

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1、 Price trend

 

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According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of May 11th, the reference average price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in China was 6550 yuan/ton, which is a decrease of 5.35% compared to the reference average price of 6920 yuan/ton on May 4th.

 

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 11th, the reference average price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China was 6683 yuan/ton, which is 3.84% lower than the reference average price of 6950 yuan/ton on May 4th.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

The price of phosphoric acid market continued to decline this week. The prices of raw phosphorus ore and yellow phosphorus continue to decline, with weak cost support. Downstream demand continues to be sluggish, market transactions are poor, and the bearish sentiment in the phosphoric acid market is strong. As of May 11th, the factory quotation for 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Sichuan region is around 5900-6500 yuan/ton, while the factory quotation for 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Yunnan region is around 6500 yuan/ton, and the factory quotation for 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 6350-6450 yuan/ton. The domestic market quotation for 85% wet process phosphoric acid is around 6350-7100 yuan/ton.

 

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In terms of raw material yellow phosphorus, the price of Yunnan Guizhou yellow phosphorus market fell this week. At present, the overall market trading situation of yellow phosphorus is poor, and the demand on the market continues to be weak. The inventory on site is under pressure, and some enterprises are stopping for maintenance to alleviate the pressure. The manufacturer will not provide a quotation to the public for the time being, and will discuss the actual order in detail. Downstream procurement is more cautious, with lower prices and a downward focus on the transaction price of new orders. As of now, the mainstream quotation is around 20000 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is negotiable.

 

In terms of raw phosphorus ore, the overall domestic phosphorus ore market has been weak and declining this week, with the overall focus of the market exploring downward. At present, although the overall support for the supply side of phosphate rock in China is still acceptable, the overall operating rate downstream of the phosphate rock industry chain is relatively low, and the demand for phosphate rock in some regions has weakened. The overall atmosphere in phosphate rock yards is average, and some mining companies have lowered the prices of mid to high-end grade phosphate rock by around 20-50 yuan/ton.

 

3、 Future Market Forecast

 

According to phosphoric acid analysts from Business Society, the phosphoric acid market has remained weak in recent days, with raw material prices decreasing and cost side support weakening. Downstream demand is weak, and the mentality of buying up instead of buying down has increased, with a focus on wait-and-see. Under the influence of negative factors, the phosphoric acid market price is expected to continue to decline in the short term.

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1、 Price trend

 

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According to the commodity market analysis system of business cooperatives, the average price of domestic liquid caprolactam market was 12683 yuan/ton on May 1, and 12666 yuan/ton on May 8. Caprolactam prices fell 0.13% this week.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

Caprolactam market fell in shock this week. The price of raw material pure benzene has decreased, weakening cost support. Some caprolactam enterprises have reduced market supply and supply of goods due to equipment maintenance. However, downstream demand performance is insufficient, with on-demand procurement being the main focus and weak market transactions.

 

The price of raw material pure benzene continued to decline this week. On May 8th, the domestic price of pure benzene ranged from 7050 to 7330 yuan/ton, with an average price of 7163 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.63% compared to last week. As of May 8th, Sinopec Group North China region: Qilu Petrochemical quoted 7300 yuan/ton, Shijiazhuang Refining and Chemical quoted 7300 yuan/ton, and Tianjin Petrochemical quoted 7300 yuan/ton.

 

3、 Future Market Forecast

 

Caprolactam analysts from the business community believe that the price of raw material pure benzene has weakened recently, and the cost side support is weak. Insufficient follow-up at the terminal and insufficient market transactions. It is expected that caprolactam market price will be slightly adjusted and operated in the short term.

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1、 Price trend

 

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According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of chlorinated paraffin 52 in China on May 1st was 5533 yuan/ton. On May 6th, the average market price of chlorinated paraffin 52 in China was 5500 yuan/ton, and the price of chlorinated paraffin 52 decreased by 0.60% this week.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

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Chlorinated paraffin market prices fell this week. This week, the prices of raw material liquid chlorine and liquid wax continued to decline, with insufficient cost support. Downstream demand is weak, market transactions are weak, and the industry is mainly bearish. As of May 6th, the ex factory quotation for chlorinated paraffin 52 in Anhui region is about 6000 yuan/ton, the ex factory quotation for chlorinated paraffin 52 in Northeast region is about 5500-5800 yuan/ton, and the ex factory quotation for chlorinated paraffin 52 in Shandong region is about 4500-5200 yuan/ton.

 

In terms of raw material liquid wax, the price of liquid wax continued to decline this week, and the market downturn continued. Liquid wax fluctuated with the crude oil market. In terms of raw material liquid chlorine, the price of liquid chlorine in Shandong region has been continuously declining this week, resulting in a cold trading atmosphere and weak market performance.

 

3、 Future Market Forecast

 

Chlorinated paraffin analysts from Business Society believe that the market for raw material liquid chlorine and liquid wax has continued to weaken recently, weakening cost support. The terminal demand is sluggish, with small purchases and relatively few transactions. It is expected that the market price of chlorinated paraffin will fall in the short term.

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After the holiday, the plasticizer DOP rose in response

 

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According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the prices of plasticizer products have skyrocketed after the holiday. As of May 4th, the price of DOP was 10367.50 yuan/ton, a sharp increase of 6.78% compared to the price of 9709.17 yuan/ton on May 1st; On May 4th, the price of DOTP was 10361 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.61% compared to the price of 9811 yuan/ton on May 1st; On May 4th, the DBP price was 9525 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.11% compared to the price of 9237.50 yuan/ton on May 1st. During the May Day holiday, equipment malfunctions occurred in isooctanol manufacturers. After the holiday, the price of isooctanol skyrocketed, and the prices of raw materials skyrocketed. In response, the price of plasticizers skyrocketed after the holiday.

 

The price of isooctanol skyrocketed after the holiday

 

From the comparison of prices of major isooctanol manufacturers before and after the May Day holiday, it can be seen that the prices of major isooctanol enterprises have skyrocketed after the holiday. Due to the impact of hydrogen peroxide equipment accidents, it has been difficult to ship isooctanol, resulting in a surge in isooctanol prices, a significant increase in the cost of plasticizer products, and an increase in the upward momentum of plasticizers.

 

Future expectations

 

Analysts from Business Society’s plasticizer product data believe that due to the impact of the Luxi chemical accident, the price of isooctanol has skyrocketed, and the cost of plasticizer products has increased, leading to a significant increase in plasticizer product prices. In the future, as isooctanol manufacturers resume supply, the cost of plasticizer raw materials is bound to fall, and the demand for plasticizers remains weak, with insufficient support for downstream increases. It is expected that plasticizer prices will remain high in the short term, and then may fall back from high levels.

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According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the prices of polyester staple fibers first rose and then fell in April, showing a slight overall increase. As of April 29th, the average ex factory price of 1.4D * 38mm was 7660 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.77% compared to the beginning of the month. At the beginning of the month, prices were boosted by crude oil, but as cost support weakened and demand was insufficient, they fluctuated and declined. At present, the short fiber industry is experiencing significant losses, forcing factories and equipment to enter a state of maintenance. As of the end of this month, the start of production in the short fiber industry has decreased to less than 70%.

 

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In the crude oil market, at the beginning of April, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) suddenly announced a significant production reduction, which is estimated to exceed 1 million barrels per day. Affected by this news, international crude oil futures prices have strengthened. But with concerns about economic recession and market expectations of further interest rate hikes that may suppress fuel demand growth, prices have fluctuated and fallen. As of April 28th, WTI’s June crude oil futures were trading at $76.78 per barrel; Brent crude oil futures for June were trading at $79.54 per barrel.

 

The PX new device has a load of 90% of Shenghong’s 4 million tons, a load of more than 80% of Guangzhou Petrochemical’s 2.6 million tons, and a load of less than 30% of Daxie Petrochemical’s 1.6 million tons. PX centralized maintenance has begun to materialize, and the operating rate of PX in Asia has rapidly decreased. However, at the end of the month, with the restart or load increase of multiple PX devices, the tight supply of PX in the early stage was slightly alleviated, and the domestic PX device load remained above 70%. The Asian centralized maintenance season is coming to an end, and the cost support for the PTA market from the PX maintenance season is also coming to an end.

 

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Affected by this, the domestic PTA4 market in January showed an “M” trend, showing an overall decline. As of April 29, the spot market price in East China was 6180 yuan/ton, down 3.51% from the beginning of the month. At the end of April, the domestic PTA device load remained around 80%. In May, restart and maintenance coexisted. The total production capacity of Yadong Petrochemical was 750000 tons/year, and the device was repaired at the end of March. It is planned to restart on May 1st. The total production capacity of Xinjiang Zhongtai PTA is 1.2 million tons/year, and the device is planned to be shut down in May, with a planned maintenance period of 2 months. In terms of inventory, according to statistics, the current PTA social inventory is maintained at around 2.7 million tons. In April, there was an increase in PTA supply and a decrease in demand, resulting in a slight accumulation of inventory in the market.

 

Demand has continued to be weak. Since April, new orders for domestic and foreign terminal weaving have continued to decline, mainly for just in demand replenishment. Domestic demand orders have gradually come to an end, and foreign demand has still not improved. From January to March 2023, polyester yarn exports amounted to 108000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 15.7%. In March, polyester yarn exports amounted to 41000 shares, a year-on-year decrease of 5.5%. The pressure on pure polyester yarn enterprises has gradually increased, and production reduction has been put on the agenda. There have been sporadic cuts in production in yarn factories, and there has not yet been a large-scale reduction in production.

 

Analysts from Business Society believe that as processing costs continue to compress and traditional textile off-season approaches, it is expected that polyester staple fiber and downstream yarn enterprises will experience more widespread production cuts and shutdowns in May. The operating rate will further decrease, and weak demand will suppress polyester staple fiber prices.

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