Overview of ethylene glycol market

According to data from Business News Agency, on April 27th, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4153.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.12% compared to the market average price of 4158.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

Ethylene glycol inventory remains high

At present, inventory is still relatively high. In April, the inventory of ethylene glycol at the East China main port has been operating above 1 million tons. From the beginning of the month to the 24th, there has been a slight accumulation of inventory. Towards the end of the month (April 27th), the inventory of ethylene glycol at the East China main port has reached 1.0221 million tons, and the inventory has started to decrease slightly. The main reason is that the pace of port shipments has increased, including 534000 tons in Zhangjiagang, 189100 tons in Taicang, 101000 tons in Ningbo, 121000 tons in Jiangyin and Changzhou, and 77000 tons in Shanghai and Changshu. In terms of shipment: Zhangjiagang shipped an average of 6100 tons per day this week; Taicang’s two warehouses have a comprehensive daily average shipment of 6900 tons; The daily average shipment in Ningbo area is around 3000 tons.

List of International CIF Prices

On April 25th, the CIF price of ethylene glycol in China was 505 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 9 US dollars per ton compared to the previous month; The CIF Southeast Asia price is 523 US dollars per ton.

The supply is still loose, and the expected conversion to production needs to be actually implemented

The operating rate of domestic ethylene glycol units has slightly increased to 60% with the production of new units and the restart of coal chemical plants. In terms of imports, the import volume in March will slightly increase to around 520000 tons with the arrival of Iranian goods at the port. In addition, the port’s shipping speed is starting to decline, and the port is expected to accumulate inventory slightly.

Downstream demand is weak

Downstream, the scale of polyester maintenance has increased, and the polyester load continues to decline, mainly because the terminal is temporarily unable to withstand high priced raw materials, and the operating rate of the weaving machine has decreased. Although there have been many new polyester production units recently, which to some extent offset some of the reduced production load, the overall downstream demand is weak.

Weak upward momentum on the spot end

At present, the average spot price of ethylene glycol is within a relatively low range in history, but the supply pressure of ethylene glycol is still in the short term. In terms of demand, the start of terminal looms has slightly weakened, and some polyester factories have production reduction plans, suppressing the upward trend of ethylene glycol prices; The fundamentals of ethylene glycol are still weak.

Ethylene glycol has been in a negative profit price range for a long time. Currently, it mainly relies on the increase in equipment maintenance scale and the reduction in supply, coupled with the weakening of supply caused by medium to long-term production changes and the expected support of downstream demand that may improve; We still need to wait and see the specific performance, after all, the inventory data is not optimistic.

It is expected that in the short term, the probability of ethylene glycol trading sideways will increase, with an average price range of around 3950-4200 yuan/ton.

The price of ethylene oxide decreased in April

According to data from Business News Agency, on April 26, 2023, the average spot market price of ethylene oxide in China was 6500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.72% compared to the beginning of the month; Compared to the beginning of the year, the price was 6800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.41%.

Overview of ethylene oxide industry chain

The terminal demand is lower than expected, and the price center of the main downstream polycarboxylate water reducing agent monomer has shifted downward. The production enthusiasm of polycarboxylate water reducing agent monomer enterprises is not high, and the demand for ethylene oxide is weakened.

Weak cost support for ethylene price decline

On the raw material side, the price of ethylene has moved downwards. Currently, the average price in the domestic market is 6800 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 200 yuan/ton, weakening cost support.

Future Market Forecast

The terminal demand is lower than expected, and the production capacity utilization rate of the main downstream polycarboxylate water reducing agent monomer enterprises is not high; The demand for ethylene oxide is expected to deteriorate. Adding to the downward movement of raw material prices, cost support has weakened, and it is expected that in the short term, the price of ethylene oxide will continue the current trend, with weak fluctuations being the main trend.

On April 25th, domestic boric acid prices stabilized

According to the bulk list data of Business Society, the price of boric acid has recently slightly decreased, with an average price of 7540 yuan/ton.

Recently, the domestic boric acid market has been weak. Downstream demand is average, and the price of boric acid fluctuates slightly downwards.

The supply of imported goods has recently increased, and the current external quotation is concentrated at 7800-9000 yuan/ton (the actual transaction price of different brands, specifications, and products is mainly negotiated).

Business Society Boric Acid Analysts believe that recent market demand has been average, and the boric acid market is showing a fluctuating and weak consolidation trend. It is expected that the market will remain weak and stable in the future, and more attention needs to be paid to market news guidance.

According to data from Business News Agency, the domestic maleic anhydride market has been in a weak state this week. As of April 23, the average market price of n-butane oxidation maleic anhydride remained at 7850.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.51% compared to the price of 7890.00 yuan/ton on April 17, and an increase of 1.42% compared to the same period last month.

On April 23, the maleic anhydride commodity index was 73.95, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 55.57% from the cycle’s highest point of 166.43 points (2021-12-15), and an increase of 44.49% from the lowest point of 51.18 points on April 14, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

At present, the domestic benzene based maleic anhydride market is gradually starting to operate. Recently, the downstream resin market has been weak, and the enthusiasm for replenishment of maleic anhydride is average. As of the 23rd, solid anhydride in Shandong region is about 7500 yuan/ton, in Jiangsu region it is about 7500 yuan/ton, in Shanxi region it is about 7500 yuan/ton, mainly for self use in Hebei region, and in South China it is about 7800 yuan/ton.

On the upstream side, the price of pure benzene stabilized first and then fell. On April 17th, the average price of pure benzene was 7501 yuan/ton, and on April 21st, the average price was 7510 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.87% compared to last week. The ex factory price of hydrogenated benzene in North China has increased by 0.68%, from 7350 yuan/ton last weekend to 7400 yuan/ton this weekend. This week’s regular butane market has been sorted out, and as of April 23, the price in Shandong is around 5500 yuan/ton.

Business Society’s maleic anhydride product analysts believe that this week, the upstream n-butane market of maleic anhydride has sorted out, while the downstream resin market is weak. They are cautious in covering positions, coupled with the downward trend of international crude oil, the market has a strong wait-and-see sentiment. However, as the May Day holiday approaches, some downstream restocking before the holiday is expected, and the maleic anhydride market may be dominated by consolidation.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the average price of 55% of the domestic powdered monoammonium was 3126 yuan/ton on April 17, and 3086 yuan/ton on April 23. The market price of monoammonium phosphate fell 1.28% this week.

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the average price of 64% of the domestic diammonium phosphate market was 3943 yuan/ton on April 17, and the average price of 64% of the domestic diammonium phosphate market was 3943 yuan/ton on April 23. The price of diammonium phosphate market was stable this week.

2、 Market analysis

The price of monoammonium phosphate fell this week. The prices of raw phosphorus ore and sulfur have fallen, weakening cost support. Downstream demand is sluggish, with few new orders traded. As of April 23, the market price of 55 powdered ammonium in Hubei region is around 2850-3000 yuan/ton, while the market price of 55 powdered ammonium in Sichuan region is around 2900-3050 yuan/ton, with actual negotiations being the main focus.

The price of diammonium phosphate remained stable this week. The prices of raw materials continue to weaken, and cost support is weak. Downstream demand is light, with small purchases being the main focus, and market trading performance is average. As of April 17th, 64% of the diammonium market in Hubei region has quoted around 3850-3950 yuan/ton, while 64% of the diammonium market in Yungui region has quoted around 3700-4100 yuan/ton, with actual transaction negotiations.

In terms of raw sulfur, the price of sulfur has dropped this week. The sulfur manufacturer’s equipment is operating normally, the market supply is stable, the end industry consumption is sluggish, the main downstream market is weak and declining, the market’s new orders are insufficient, demand is poor, and refinery shipments are hindered. The operators have a pessimistic mentality, and some refinery quotations have been lowered to stimulate shipments, resulting in a weak short-term sulfur market trend.

In terms of raw phosphorus ore, the domestic phosphorus ore market remained stable and declined this week. In early April, due to the low start of downstream yellow phosphorus production, the weak operation of yellow phosphorus from bottom to top affected the atmosphere in the phosphate ore field, and the market situation of some areas of the domestic phosphate ore market adjusted downward. Entering this week, the domestic phosphate ore market stabilized and prices fell again.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Analysts from the Business Society believe that the recent poor price trend of ammonium phosphate raw materials has resulted in insufficient cost support. Terminal demand remains sluggish and trading volume is relatively low. The weak market situation of ammonium phosphate is difficult to improve, and it is expected that the price of ammonium phosphate will continue to decline in the short term.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the monitoring of nickel prices by the Business Society, as of April 19, the average spot market price of nickel was 202033.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.46% compared to the previous trading day and a year-on-year decrease of 18.89%. Since the beginning of the new year in February, nickel prices have fallen for a month, and after a month of consolidation at a low level, they finally experienced a phased rebound on April 7th, rebounding 8.76% in just 12 days, breaking the 200000 mark.

Ten year historical price curve of nickel:

According to the price data of the Business Society, the current nickel price is at a relatively high level in 12 years, and has rebounded to the platform level in October 22. There may be some resistance to a rebound in the price here.

April is positive, and nickel fundamentals have improved

1. Sudden earthquake in Indonesia: On April 14th, a 7.1 magnitude earthquake occurred on Java Island, Indonesia, with a depth of 600 kilometers. Indonesian nickel ore products account for about 30% of the world’s nickel production and are the world’s largest nickel supplier. This earthquake event has created a hype point for the nickel market, which has driven a significant rebound in nickel prices due to supply concerns.

2. There is a possibility of delay in the addition of nickel electrowinning projects: since the beginning of the year, a number of new nickel electrowinning projects have emerged in China, with a total production capacity of nearly 200000 tons in the future. The main raw materials are MHP, high nickel matte, and nickel sulfate. However, some projects are planned to be postponed due to economic and environmental issues in the early stages.

3. There is a certain shortage of spot nickel in Russia: due to political conflicts, Russian nickel resources in overseas regions are relatively scarce, and LME inventory has been reduced to below 42000 tons, with the holding inventory ratio reaching its highest level in nearly three years. There is a certain shortage of Russian nickel spot in the overseas market, with Jinchuan and Russian nickel premiums hanging upside down. Recently, with the continuous closure of import windows, the domestic nickel spot market has shown a certain tightness.

4. The transaction price of stainless steel factory procurement has increased compared to before: the improvement in alloy and stainless steel consumption supports nickel prices, and there are news in the secondary market of nickel iron that the transaction price of stainless steel factory centralized procurement has increased compared to before, improving market confidence.

5. Inventory is still at a low level

Previously, the two major peaks in nickel fundamentals, the increase in Russian nickel supply and the addition of new production capacity for electrowinning nickel, both eased in April. With the speculation that the Indonesian earthquake may affect nickel supply and the fact that nickel prices have fallen to lower levels, the situation has rebounded significantly. However, downstream demand remains insufficient.

Comparison Chart of Nickel and Stainless Steel Prices

From the comparison chart of nickel and stainless steel prices in the Business Society, it can be seen that stainless steel is downstream of nickel. Although stainless steel has rebounded due to the influence of raw material nickel, its strength is clearly insufficient. Because the overall demand for stainless steel is weak. In March, steel mills began a centralized production reduction, with a stainless steel production of approximately 2.675 million tons in March, a decrease of 5.41% month on month and 11.62% year on year.

From the perspective of the downstream new energy industry, downstream orders are still weak, with a decrease of 6.33% in the production of ternary precursors and 12.45% in the production of ternary materials. This is mainly due to a decrease in high nickel content, and the negative feedback effect of car company promotions on the upstream raw material end is still ongoing.

In summary, nickel prices have been temporarily stabilized and rebounded due to tight supply expectations. However, with the rise of nickel prices, the profit margin for MHP or nickel sulfate production of electrowinning nickel has recovered. If the electrolytic nickel production line continues to rise significantly in the future, it will accelerate production and suppress nickel. And downstream demand has not really improved, suppressing the upward trend of nickel prices. Nickel prices are expected to be boosted by news and driven by funding, showing short-term improvement, but still being suppressed in the medium to long term.

According to data from Business News Agency, the domestic maleic anhydride market started to rise and then fell in April. As of April 18th, the average market price of n-butane oxidation maleic anhydride remained at 7890.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.16% from April 1st’s price of 7740.00 yuan/ton, and an increase of 0.26% from the same period last month.

On April 18th, the maleic anhydride commodity index was 74.33, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 55.34% from the cycle’s highest point of 166.43 points (2021-12-15), and an increase of 45.23% from the lowest point of 51.18 points on April 14th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

At present, the domestic benzene based maleic anhydride market is gradually starting to operate. Recently, downstream resin manufacturers have increased their prices, and their enthusiasm for replenishing maleic anhydride is average. As of the 18th, the solid anhydride in Shandong region is around 7500 yuan/ton, Jiangsu region is around 7500 yuan/ton, Shanxi region is around 7500 yuan/ton, Hebei region is mainly for self use, and South China region is around 7800 yuan/ton.

On the upstream side, the pure benzene port went to the warehouse in April, and the downstream demand for raw materials was relatively stable, and the market price of pure benzene continued to rise. The factory price of hydrogenated benzene in North China has increased by 2.80%, from 7150 yuan/ton on April 1st to 7350 yuan/ton on April 18th. The market for n-butane fluctuated and rose, with prices in Shandong around 5500 yuan/ton as of April 18th.

The maleic anhydride product analysts of the business community believe that the price of n-butane in the upstream of maleic anhydride rose sharply in April, which supported the market cost of maleic anhydride. The price of downstream resin manufacturers increased, superimposed on the price of resin raw materials. The price of maleic anhydride continued to rise in the first ten days of April. In the middle of April, due to the high price of maleic anhydride market, the downstream market was cautious, purchasing enthusiasm was general, and the market price of maleic anhydride declined. As the May Day holiday approaches and downstream restocking continues, it is expected that the maleic anhydride market will be dominated by consolidation in the near future.

1、 Price data

According to the commodity analysis system of the business community, the price of petroleum coke of the local refiner fell first and then rose this week. On April 16, the average price of Shandong market was 1794.00 yuan/ton, 0.99% higher than the price of 1776.50 yuan/ton on April 10.

On April 16, the petroleum coke commodity index was 139.53, unchanged from yesterday, 65.86% lower than the cycle’s highest point 408.70 (2022-05-11), and 108.60% higher than the lowest point 66.89 on March 28, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 30th, 2012 to the present)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the price of refinery petroleum coke rose first and then fell, rising as a whole. The inventory of local refining enterprises was low, downstream enterprises and traders concentrated on stocking up, and local refining petroleum coke market traded well. However, at present, the port petroleum coke inventory is at a long-term high level, which cannot be changed in the short term, and the port petroleum coke delivery and investment is limited.

This week, the international crude oil market fluctuated and rose. On the one hand, on April 2nd, Saudi Arabia, together with several major oil producing countries, announced a voluntary reduction of over 1.6 million barrels per day from May to the end of 2023 outside the OPEC+agreement, which greatly affected the price of crude oil. On the other hand, the pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates has eased, boosting international oil prices. Data released by the US Department of Labor shows a decrease in US March CPI data, which means that the pace of inflation in the US has slowed down, and the pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates has eased. Investors expect the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike cycle to come to an end, which has affected the trend of international oil prices. Finally, the strong demand for crude oil in China has further strengthened the market’s bullish expectations.

The price of calcined coke remained basically stable this week; At present, silicon plants are under great pressure of loss, and the mood of stabilizing is strengthened, and the demand for petroleum coke is weak; Downstream electrolytic aluminum prices have fluctuated and increased, and aluminum carbon enterprises are still able to purchase.

Petroleum coke analysts from the business community believe that the recent low stock of locally refined petroleum coke, the concentration of downstream enterprises and traders to stock up, and the local refining petroleum coke market trading well. However, at present, the port petroleum coke inventory is at a long-term high level, which cannot be changed in the short term, and the port petroleum coke delivery and investment is limited. It is expected that the market of locally refined petroleum coke will rise slightly in the near future.

This week (4.7~4.14), the market for dichloromethane stabilized in a narrow range. As of April 14th, the average price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong was 2637 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.09% from last Friday’s 2640 yuan/ton. The high point of the cycle was 2652 yuan/ton, and the low point was 2607 yuan/ton. The low price of raw material methanol rebounded slightly, while the cost support for dichloromethane remained weak; Downstream refrigerant R32 just needs support for the procurement of dichloromethane during the peak season, and the pharmaceutical and solvent industries are operating steadily, with demand support for dichloromethane. However, the supply of methane chloride is loose, and the recent market volatility and consolidation of dichloromethane are the main factors.

This week (4.7~4.14), the low price of raw material methanol rebounded slightly, while the downward trend in the cost of trichloromethane remained weak. According to Business News, as of April 14th, the spot price of methanol was 2471 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.02% from last Friday’s 2446 yuan/ton.

With the arrival of the traditional peak season, the market price of refrigerant R 32 is firm and the commencement is stable, which has certain support for dichloromethane. The pharmaceutical intermediates and diluents solvent industry has been operating steadily, with just the necessary support for dichloromethane

Future Market Forecast: Analysts from Business Society’s Methane Chloride Data believe that the downstream of dichloromethane just needs support, but the methane chloride industry is still at a high level with loose supply and weak cost support. Due to the fundamental game of the industrial chain, it is expected that the dichloromethane market will narrow and consolidate in the short term.

On April 6th, Sinopec North China raised its listing price by 200 yuan per ton to execute a 6400 yuan/ton increase. The overhaul of the Yanshan Petrochemical plant is imminent, and the operating rate of domestic phenolic ketone plants is declining. In April, as the plant overhaul season enters, it is expected that the domestic supply of goods will decline. Moreover, at the beginning of the month, supported by the rising cost of crude oil, the reluctance to sell among cargo holders has increased, and the market is rapidly rising. It is expected that there will still be upward momentum tomorrow.

The acetone offers in major mainstream markets across China on April 6th are as follows:

Region/ Quotation/ Fluctuation range

East China region/ 6300./ 150

Shandong region/ 6400./ 100

Yanshan region/ 6450./ 150

South China region/ 6600./ 150