Data monitoring shows that on March 30, the polyaluminum chloride commodity index stood at 101.49, unchanged from yesterday, down 28.85% from the cycle’s highest point of 142.64 (2021-11-01), and up 20.36% from the lowest point of 84.32 on August 18, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to 2019-04-01 to now)

According to monitoring data, the market price of solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) polyaluminum chloride in China was basically stable at around 1877.5 yuan/ton during the week of March 27-30. Currently, some water treatment enterprises in China’s main production areas have basically resumed production due to environmental shutdown, with normal production in local factories, relatively abundant inventory in stock, and little change in downstream procurement demand. This week, the cost of raw material hydrochloric acid was stable, and fuel prices rebounded slightly. The mainstream market for polyaluminum chloride remained stable during the week, with occasional slight price increases for enterprises.

Raw hydrochloric acid: According to monitoring data from the Business News Agency, the domestic market price of hydrochloric acid for the week from March 27-30 was basically maintained at around 198 yuan/ton. The upstream liquid chlorine market has a downward trend this week, with weaker cost support and a general willingness to purchase downstream. The analysis indicates that hydrochloric acid has insufficient support in the near future, or has mainly declined slightly.

Liquefied natural gas for production. According to data from Business News Agency, domestic LNG prices rebounded during the week of March 27-30. As of March 30, the average price of liquefied natural gas in China was 4344 yuan/ton, up 3.08% from the average price of 4214 yuan/ton on March 27.

Future market forecast: This week, the raw material market is stable, and fuel costs have rebounded slightly. Given that the production of polyaluminum chloride manufacturers is normal, there is sufficient inventory in stock, and there is little change in downstream demand, traders in the market expect that the future market of polyaluminum chloride may have a slight increase. Due to the tepidity of the demand side, the probability will still be mainly stable, supplemented by minor adjustments..

Aluminum price stops falling and stabilizes

According to data from Business News Agency, on March 29, 2023, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in the East China market was 18603.33 yuan/ton, which was basically unchanged compared to the previous trading day, and the aluminum price was 18416.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month (March 1), up 1.01%. After recovering in January, aluminum prices fell in mid February. After the Federal Reserve raised interest rates in March, aluminum prices stopped falling and stabilized.

In the long term, the current price has retreated significantly, increasing by 6.61% compared to the recent recovery starting point (July 14, 2022), where the average market price of aluminum ingots was 17450 yuan/ton. The recent high aluminum price occurred on December 5th, with the average aluminum ingot market price of 19536.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.78%.

Overview of fundamentals

In the early stage, the macro repression brought about by European and American banking industry eased, with nonferrous metals taking the lead in recovering, and aluminum prices stabilizing. At present, the overall transaction in the East China market has improved, and the circulation between traders is positive, and the transaction is fair; The aluminum price in Gongyi region is strong, and the willingness to receive goods from downstream is not strong, resulting in a strong wait-and-see mood; The spot downstream consumption in South China has rebounded, and the demand for replenishment has increased. The overall transaction is fair.

Aftermarket forecast

From the supply side, the output in March was not low, and according to inventory data, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum is still relatively high, but there is a trend of destocking, and inventory destocking is slowing down. In the short term, electrolytic aluminum will be suppressed and alleviated by macro factors. It is expected that the aluminum price will stop falling and stabilize, and the probability of a sideways trend in the aluminum price will increase. In the near future, it is expected to wait and see the strength of downstream consumption.

On March 27, the engineering plastics index stood at 698 points, a decrease of 1 point compared to yesterday, a decrease of 38.83% compared to the cycle’s highest point of 1141 points (2018-09-09), and an increase of 23.32% compared to the lowest point of 566 points on May 6, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

In March, the overall price of domestic engineering plastics products fell. According to the price monitoring of the Business Agency, in March 2023, only one item rose in the engineering plastics price list, while a total of four items fell. The main commodities rising are: PET (+2.81%); The main commodities falling were POM (- 0.41%), PA6 (- 2.18%), PA66 (- 3.17%), and PC (- 3.24%).

In March, the engineering plastics industry generally showed a pattern of increased supply, and the enterprise load continued to be high. Among them, domestic POM polymerization enterprises have performed well, with operating rates ranging from 90% to 95% throughout the month. And about 70% of the monthly average load of PC manufacturers has reached a high point in nearly three years. However, from the perspective of engineering plastics consumption, terminal enterprises have a poor enthusiasm for stocking, and the situation of spot delivery and investment is poor. The supply of goods on the site has increased, and the overall domestic inventory position has risen. The profitability of engineering plastics production enterprises is still challenged, and the improvement of operational risks in factories at all levels is limited. Adding to the decline in international oil prices this month, the common remote cost of the plastic industry has weakened. Overall, the market situation of the engineering plastics industry in March was biased towards negative.

PET

This month, the bottle grade PET market bucked the trend and rose, operating in a stable and strong manner, with the overall spot price at a high level. At the end of the month, the price of the business club was 7690.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.81% compared to the beginning of the month. At present, the focus of negotiations is stable, the manufacturer is active in shipping, and downstream purchases are made on demand, with a smooth flow of goods within the site. In late October, oil prices stopped falling and rebounded, with raw material PTA being boosted and prices rising, increasing support for PET cost. In addition, due to the tight supply of goods in individual regions and the double benefits of supply and cost, the PET market in March is expected to rise against the current, and in the short term, the PET market may be stable, medium, and strong.

POM

This month, the domestic POM market fluctuated and the market price fell in a narrow range. In terms of supply, the high and narrow load adjustment of POM enterprises during the month was almost 90% or more throughout the month. The situation of enterprise warehouse construction was general, and the supply pressure was moderate. The market is characterized by abundant supply of goods and a slight loosening of factory prices. At the end of the month, traders maintained their mentality and sold goods normally. In terms of demand, terminal enterprises purchase on demand and carefully wait and see when preparing goods. “Real orders are often followed by single talks, and trading has slowed down.”. The POM market showed a weak and stable operation during the month, and it is expected that the market may continue this momentum in the short term.

PA6

The domestic PA6 market gradually declined in March. The market price of caprolactam, an upstream product, fell after a deadlock. The price of raw material pure benzene fluctuated after rising, with general cost support. The load of domestic caprolactam enterprises has been adjusted in a narrow range, and the market supply pressure has been sideways. The overall support for PA6 is flat. The operating rate of PA6 in March was around 70%, and the production was stable and the supply of goods was abundant. Downstream, terminal replenishment demand is weak, intrafloor trading is weak, overall demand for PA6 chips is poor, and intrafloor spot competition is strong. It is expected that the PA6 market will continue to consolidate in the short term.

PA66

In March, the market situation of PA66 was poor, and the spot price fell after a deadlock. In terms of supply, the overall monthly load of the domestic PA66 industry is around 65%. Enterprise operations continue to be biased towards destocking, with general inventory pressure and relatively abundant on-site supply. On the upstream side, the supply of adipic acid as the raw material was stable within the month, the market atmosphere was cold, and the price was stable with small fluctuations. The market for hexamethylene diamine is also dominated by stability, with PA66 raw material end supporting the spot market generally. In terms of demand, the situation is weak and difficult to change. Terminal enterprises tend to follow up with goods and maintain production. Buyers generally have strong resistance to high-priced sources of goods, and there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the market. It is expected that PA66 may continue its weak consolidation market in the short term.

PC

According to the monitoring of big data on prices by Business News, PC prices for engineering plastics in China fell the most in March, with PC spot prices generally falling by around 500 yuan/ton at the end of the month compared to the beginning of the month. The upstream bisphenol A market atmosphere is flat, and the cost pressure of raw materials phenol and acetone on the bisphenol A factory remains. However, due to insufficient downstream orders, overall support for PC spot prices is not effective. In terms of industry load, PC capacity utilization increased to over 70% of the highest point in nearly three years in March, resulting in high supply side pressure. The demand side is relatively weak, and the operators have a wait-and-see attitude and maintain a cautious operation. The actual orders are mainly scattered and small orders. Downstream enterprises have relatively lagged in stock preparation, and traders are mainly engaged in sales operations where profits are transferred and orders are taken. Overall, the contradiction between PC supply and demand in March has not changed, and it is expected that PC supply pressure will be difficult to resolve in the short term, or it will continue to operate in a weak manner.

Aftermarket Forecast

In March, the market of engineering plastics generally weakened, with various products experiencing supply and demand contradictions to varying degrees. Polymerization enterprises often reduce factory prices in order to remove inventory. Terminal enterprises generally have low demand, and tend to digest raw material inventory. They are cautious in stocking operations. At the same time, this month, the international crude oil shock of the engineering plastics common remote raw material fell, coupled with the impact of the Federal Reserve’s announcement of interest rate hikes in late October, and the macro environment has not provided a good support to the engineering plastics industry. The current market momentum is insufficient, and the industry has a heavy wait-and-see attitude. It is expected that the engineering plastics market will continue its current consolidation in early April.

On March 27th, the price of domestic boric acid remained stable

According to the bulk list data of Business News Agency, the price of boric acid has remained stable recently, with the average price of 7850.00 yuan/ton at the weekend.

Recently, the domestic boric acid market has remained stable due to fluctuations. Downstream demand is general, while the boric acid trading market fluctuates, and downstream bargains are sought. Boric acid manufacturers price their products based on their own shipment conditions, and the price of boric acid fluctuates slightly.

The source of imported goods has recently increased, and the current external quotations are concentrated at 8200-8500 yuan/ton (the actual transaction prices of different brands, different specifications, and products are mainly negotiated).

Boric acid analysts believe that the recent domestic boric acid market has shown a trend of volatility and consolidation, with general market demand. It is expected that the market will mainly maintain stability in the future, and more attention needs to be paid to market news guidance.

Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the Business Agency, the trend of sulfur prices in East China this week has declined. On March 24th, the average price of sulfur was 1170.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.57% compared to the price of 1213.33 yuan/ton on March 18th, and an increase of 3.85% compared to the beginning of the month.

In East China, the sulfur market is operating in a weak state, with on-site refinery units operating normally, market supply stable, and manufacturers actively shipping. In the downstream, terminal market follow-up has weakened. Some manufacturers have poor shipments, resulting in a stalemate among the industry. Some manufacturers have lowered their quotations to stimulate shipments based on their own shipments and inventory conditions, resulting in a decrease in sulfur prices during the week. As of the 24th, the mainstream price of solid sulfur in refineries in Shandong Province was around 1160-1250 yuan/ton; The mainstream price of liquid sulfur is 1150-1220 yuan/ton.

Downstream market of industrial chain

The downstream sulfuric acid market declined weakly, with the average domestic sulfuric acid price at 255 yuan/ton as of March 24, a decrease of 6.60% compared to 273 yuan/ton last Friday. The sulfuric acid plant is operating normally, with sufficient market supply, and downstream digestion and inventory are the main factors. The enthusiasm for entering the market to pick up goods is weak. The sulfuric acid manufacturers have poor shipments, and the inventory pressure is significant. In order to stimulate the continuous decline in the price of shipped sulfuric acid, the price of sulfuric acid has been reduced.

The market of monoammonium phosphate continued to decline. On March 24th, the average market price of 55% powdered monoammonium phosphate was 3200 yuan/ton, while on March 18th, the average market price of 55% powdered monoammonium phosphate was 3260 yuan/ton, and the market price of monoammonium phosphate was reduced by 1.84%. Downstream demand is sluggish, there are few new orders and transactions in the market, there is significant pressure on factory inventory, and the attitude of the industry is bearish. The focus of market transactions is weak and declining.

Aftermarket Forecast

According to sulfur analysts from Business News, domestic refineries operate smoothly, with sufficient market supply of goods, and the performance of the terminal industry is average. Downstream purchasing is mainly based on demand, while on-site trading is poor. Market performance is oversupply, and the mindset of the industry is deadlocked. It is expected that the short-term sulfur market will continue to operate weakly, with specific attention paid to downstream follow-up.

Trade name: calcium carbide

Latest price (March 23rd): 3200 yuan/ton

On March 23rd, the factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region dropped significantly, down 150 yuan/ton or 4.48% compared to March 22nd. Compared to the same period last year, the year-on-year decrease was 28.36%. The price of raw material Shenmulan charcoal is around 1250 yuan/ton, with low price consolidation and average carbide cost support. The downstream PVC market has recently declined slightly, and downstream customers’ enthusiasm for calcium carbide procurement has weakened. Superimposed high calcium carbide inventory, resulting in oversupply.

In the future, it is expected that the ex-factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region may fluctuate slightly and fall, with the main trend being consolidation: the average price quoted by manufacturers is around 3000 yuan/ton.

According to the bulk list data of the Business News Agency, as of March 22, the average price quoted by domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid companies was 3800.00 yuan/ton, up 5.19% compared to last Friday (March 17).

Recently, the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market has risen. Recently, the high price of raw material sulfuric acid and the narrow fluctuation of raw material methanol market have provided some support in terms of cost. The operating rate has decreased compared to the previous period, and the market supply has contracted, supporting this price increase. The downstream follow-up is acceptable, and the market transaction is orderly.

Upstream product: upstream sulfuric acid. On March 21, the domestic sulfuric acid market price fell. On March 21, the reference price for sulfuric acid was 260.00, up 2.63% compared to March 1 (253.33); According to the monitoring by the Business News Agency, the reference price of methanol on March 21 was 2591.67, a decrease of 5.27% compared to March 1 (2735.83).

According to the formic acid analysts of the Business Society, the current cost impact is not significant, the market inventory pressure is controllable, and there is some support for the market. The downstream formate market demand is stable, while the pharmaceutical and pesticide market demand is stable and improving. It is expected that the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market may be operating stronger in the short term, and more attention needs to be paid to market news guidance.

Data monitoring shows that the polyaluminum chloride commodity index on March 20 was 101.49, unchanged from yesterday, down 28.85% from the cycle’s highest point of 142.64 (2021-11-01), and up 20.36% from the lowest point of 84.32 on August 18, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to 2019-04-01 to now)

According to the monitoring data of the Business News Agency, the market price of solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) polyaluminum chloride in China fell sharply in the first half of March, with a decrease of about 2.47%. On the first day, the market reported 1925 yuan/ton, and on the 20th, 1877.5 yuan/ton. Currently, water treatment enterprises in China’s main production areas have normal production, abundant inventory, weak demand for downstream purchase orders, insufficient support for domestic polyaluminum chloride, and weak market conditions.

Raw hydrochloric acid: According to the monitoring data of the Business Society, the domestic market price of hydrochloric acid has increased from 166 yuan/ton on the 1st to 198 yuan/ton on the 20th, an increase of 19.28%. The upstream liquid chlorine market has consolidated at a high level, with good cost support. The downstream polyaluminum chloride and ammonium chloride markets have declined slightly, and the downstream purchasing willingness is generally low. The analysis shows that hydrochloric acid is mainly characterized by insufficient support and small fluctuations in recent years.

Liquefied natural gas for production. According to the data from the Business News Agency, since March, domestic liquefied natural gas has experienced a significant fluctuation and declined: on March 1st, it was mainly reported at 6036 yuan/ton, and on March 20th, it was mainly reported at 4412 yuan/ton, a significant decrease of 26.91%; The market demand is sluggish, the situation of oversupply is increasing, and liquid plants have a strong attitude towards inventory discharge. In addition to the reduction in the price of feed gas, the price of liquefied natural gas continues to decline. It is expected that in the short term, domestic LNG prices will be mainly consolidated and operated in a narrow range.

Future forecast: The market for raw materials has been reduced due to fluctuations, and polyaluminum chloride manufacturers have sufficient inventory. Downstream demand continues to be weak, with excessive supply and insufficient demand. It is expected that the recent market for polyaluminum chloride will continue to be weak.

1、 Price trend

According to data from the Business News Agency, as of March 20, the average factory price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in China was 8175 yuan/ton, which was 8216 yuan/ton compared to the average factory price on March 13. This week, the domestic thermal phosphoric acid price fell by 0.51%.

According to data from Business News Agency, as of March 20, the average market price of 85% wet-process phosphoric acid in China was 8300 yuan/ton, which was 1.22% higher than the average market price of 8200 yuan/ton on March 13.

2、 Market analysis

The price of thermal phosphoric acid decreased slightly this week. At present, market demand is sluggish and the market is weak. The raw material yellow phosphorus market is not good, and phosphoric acid manufacturers and distributors are mainly wait-and-see. The price of wet process phosphoric acid rose slightly this week. The price of raw phosphate rock is running at a high level, with strong cost support. As of March 20, the factory quotation for 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Sichuan is around 7950 to 8200 yuan/ton, the factory quotation for 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Yunnan is around 8200 yuan/ton, and the factory quotation for 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei is around 8000-8200 yuan/ton. The domestic market quotation for 85% wet-process phosphoric acid is around 7500-8900 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material yellow phosphorus, the market price of Yungui yellow phosphorus fell this week. The manufacturer has issued multiple preliminary orders, and the devices of many enterprises are currently in maintenance status, so no external quotation will be made temporarily. The market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, and overall, there are fewer transactions in the market, focusing on maintaining stable operation. Up to now, the mainstream quotation is around 28500-32000 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is negotiated on a single basis.

In terms of raw phosphorus ore. This week, the overall domestic phosphorus ore market remained stable at a high level. The overall supply side of the phosphate rock field remains tight, and the supply side continues to support high market quotations. With the arrival of the spring plowing season, the downstream demand of the terminal continues to increase, and the downstream demand side of the phosphate rock performs steadily.

3、 Aftermarket Forecast

Phosphoric acid analysts from the Business Society believe that the market trend of raw material yellow phosphorus is weak recently, and the hot process phosphoric acid market is dominated by wait-and-see. Currently, there are relatively few transactions on the market, and downstream purchases are made on demand. It is expected that the weak price of phosphoric acid will be dominated by consolidation and operation in the short term.

The market’s concern about the banking crisis in Europe and the United States eased somewhat, and most varieties of the domestic commodity market closed higher on March 17. PTA futures strengthened, with key contracts gaining 3.14%. The spot market rose with the average market price in East China at 5827 yuan/ton, up 2.27% from the previous day.

Crude oil prices rebounded slightly, boosting sentiment in the energy and chemical sector. In addition, some PX factories were reduced in load and delayed in restarting, resulting in a decrease in expected incremental production, which to some extent boosted PX prices and supported PTA’s cost side. In terms of its own supply, the PTA device load has slightly increased to over 76%, with supply increasing slightly. However, in March, the supply was mostly concentrated in the hands of a few traders, and some traders closed their orders.

The downstream polyester maintenance stage is on the high side, but production and sales are poor, and the demand for PTA is weak. Downstream wait-and-see sentiment is relatively strong, and procurement is mainly for immediate needs. The comprehensive start-up rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms has been lowered to below 70%.

Analysts from the Business Agency believe that overall, cost PX support is still strong, coupled with a tight supply and circulation of PTA goods, which is the main factor driving the strength of PTA prices. In the future, it is necessary to pay attention to PTA production, spot market liquidity, and downstream demand.