According to the data of Business News Agency, the spot market price of gold on February 27, 2023 was 413.05 yuan/g, down 2.05% from the beginning of the month (February 1), and up 0.77% from the early average spot market price of 409.89 yuan/g at the beginning of the year (January 1).

According to the data of the Business News Agency, the average price of silver market on February 27, 2023 was 4859.33 yuan/kg, down 0.15% per day, down 6.25% from the beginning of the month (February 1), and down 9.09% from the average price of the spot market at the beginning of the year (January 1), 5345 yuan/kg; Compared with the early average spot market price of 4368.33 yuan/kg at the beginning of October 2022 (October 1), an increase of 11.24%.

Price trend of precious metals and crude oil

Comparison of precious metal gold and silver price trends in the past year

In 2022, the rise and fall trend of precious metal gold and silver will converge, but in April and August, silver will fall deeper, and the recent recovery will be more obvious. In December, silver will continue the strong market of last month, and gold will start to consolidate at a high level. In 2023, the precious metal gold and silver will consolidate at high levels, and fall slightly in February.

Macro fundamentals

The US PCE data in January performed better than expected, which may push up the expectations of the Federal Reserve’s higher terminal interest rate to some extent. The US dollar rose strongly, and the bulk was under pressure as a whole. The expectation of the Federal Reserve to increase the tightening force made the precious metals fall under pressure.

In Europe, the European Central Bank’s Euro short-term interest rate (ESTR) rose to 3.76% in November 2023 from about 3.65% before the release of US data. According to the survey of economists, the core inflation rate of the euro zone in February, which is expected to be released on Thursday, will remain at a record level of 5.3%. European Central Bank President Lagarde said earlier that the European Central Bank is likely to continue to implement the plan of raising interest rates by 50 basis points when it meets next month.

Precious metal aftermarket

Precious metals are relatively sensitive to macro fundamental factors due to their strong monetary attributes. The expected tightening of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy also put some pressure on the continued upward trend of precious metal prices, including the upward energy. In the short term, it is expected that the price of precious metals will be mainly stable and weak.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of Business News Agency, as of February 24, the average market price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in China was 8366 yuan/ton, down 0.20% from the average price of 8383 yuan/ton on February 20.

According to the data of Business News Agency, as of February 24, the average market price of 85% wet-process phosphoric acid in China was 8150 yuan/ton, which was 1.21% lower than the average price of 8250 yuan/ton on February 20.

2、 Market analysis

Mainstream market:

As of February 24, the ex-factory price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Sichuan is about 8200-8600 yuan/ton, that in Yunnan is about 8500 yuan/ton, and that in Hubei is about 8100-8600 yuan/ton. The domestic market price of 85% wet-process phosphoric acid is about 7550-8900 yuan/ton.

Cost side:

In terms of raw yellow phosphorus, the market price of Yunnan-Guizhou yellow phosphorus was lowered this week. The manufacturer has issued many preliminary orders. At present, the devices of many enterprises are in maintenance status, and the quotation is not available for the time being. The overall market trading situation is light. Under the bearish mood of the downstream, the buying enthusiasm is not high, the high-end price is difficult to deal, the operation is cautious, and the low market price frequently depresses the market confidence. Up to now, the mainstream quotation is about 31000 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is a single negotiation.

In the aspect of raw phosphorus ore, the overall phosphorus ore market was stable at a high level this week. As of February 24, the domestic market price of 30% grade phosphate ore is around 1050-1100 yuan/ton, and the price of 28% grade phosphate ore is around 950-980 yuan/ton. The reference price of 32% grade phosphate ore is around 1180-1250 yuan/ton.

Supply and demand side:

The supply of phosphoric acid market was stable this week, and there was no major change in the supply side. Downstream procurement on demand is still cautious and wait-and-see. On-site trading is general, and terminal demand needs to be released.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

According to phosphoric acid analysts of the Business Society, due to the increase in the price of raw phosphorus and the strengthening of cost support, the market trend of thermal phosphoric acid has begun to rebound, and manufacturers have more willingness to increase. It is expected that the market price of phosphoric acid will rise in the short term.

According to the monitoring sample data of Business News Agency, the average price of melamine enterprises was 8266.67 yuan/ton as of February 23, which was the same as that of Monday.

Recently, the melamine market has stabilized and adjusted. Recently, the market price of raw material urea has risen, and the cost support has risen. In addition, some enterprises in the early stage have reduced prices and absorbed orders. The market pressure has been eased. Some low-end prices have been recalled, and the supply side operating rate has increased slightly. The demand side follow-up is still just needed. The market atmosphere is general, and the focus of the melamine market is mainly stable.

For upstream urea, the comprehensive price of domestic urea rose slightly on February 22, up 14 yuan/ton or 0.51% from February 21, and up 4.54% from the same period last year.

Melamine analysts from the Business Agency believe that the price of raw material urea is on the high side, the pressure on the cost side is increasing, the terminal demand is recovering, and the market transactions are just needed. It is expected that in the short term, the melamine market will probably wait and see, and more attention should be paid to the changes in the cost side.

According to the data monitoring of the Business News Agency, the polyaluminum chloride commodity index on February 20 was 105.74, which was the same as yesterday, down 25.87% from the highest point of 142.64 (2021-11-01) in the cycle, and up 25.40% from the lowest point of 84.32 on August 18, 2020. (Note: the period refers to April 1, 2019 to now)

Spot: According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the domestic solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) polyaluminum chloride market continued to decline slightly in mid-February, with a range of 0.54%: the main market price was 1966.25 yuan/ton on the 11th, and it was reduced to 1956.25 yuan/ton on the 20th. At present, the water treatment enterprises in China’s main production areas have sufficient inventory, the downstream purchase orders are general, and the domestic polyaluminum chloride market is not supported enough, with a moderate and small decline.

Raw hydrochloric acid: According to the monitoring data of the Business Agency, the domestic market price of hydrochloric acid rose steadily in mid-February, and the market price was about 155-164.00 yuan/ton. From the manufacturer’s quotation, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price has risen slightly recently; From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the upstream liquid chlorine market rose slightly and the cost support increased; The price in the downstream market weakened slightly, and the purchase intention was general. According to comprehensive analysis, hydrochloric acid was mainly subject to a small fluctuation in recent years.

Liquefied natural gas for production. According to the data of the Business News Agency, in the middle of February, the domestic liquefied natural gas (LNG) rose from 5724 yuan/ton on February 11 to 5952 yuan/ton on February 15, then fell to 5902 yuan/ton on February 17, and then rose to 6040 yuan/ton on February 20, an overall increase of 5.52% in the current ten days. Cost support is favorable, and domestic LNG prices are expected to rise in the short term.

Aftermarket forecast: the raw material has risen slightly in a stable manner, but the downstream demand continues to be weak, the manufacturer’s inventory is sufficient, and the supply is large and the demand is small. It is expected that the market of polyaluminum chloride will not change much in the near future, mainly due to weak shocks.

Domestic cobalt price fell first and then rose this week

According to the data monitoring of the Business Agency, as of February 20, the cobalt price was 290500 yuan/ton, up 0.35% from the cobalt price of 289500 yuan/ton on February 13. The demand of cobalt market recovered, the international cobalt price fluctuated and fell, the domestic cobalt market stopped falling and rebounded, and the cobalt price fell first and then rose.

Cobalt and nickel prices are facing a reversal

As of February 20, the price of cobalt sulfate was 39500 yuan/ton, while the price of nickel sulfate was 40000 yuan/ton, and the price of nickel sulfate was inversely higher than the price of cobalt sulfate. From the perspective of cost, the necessity of cobalt removal became weaker, and high nickel and low cobalt became the chicken ribs. It is expected that the demand for cobalt in the future is expected to increase.

Local new energy vehicle policies

Eight departments, including the First Equipment Industry Division of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, issued the Notice on Organizing the Pilot Work of Comprehensive Electrification of Vehicles in the Public Sector to promote the development of the new energy vehicle industry; Nanjing continues to implement the policy of exemption from vehicle purchase tax for new energy vehicles; Hunan pointed out in the “20 items of stable growth” that the policy of replacing new energy vehicles with capital subsidies should be continued to drive the production and consumption of new energy vehicles; The People’s Government of Guangdong Province is now printing and distributing the Implementation Plan of Guangdong Province’s Carbon Peak, which proposes to vigorously develop the new energy automobile industry; Sichuan Province should implement the policy of exemption from vehicle purchase tax on new energy vehicles and carry out a series of consumption promotion activities such as new energy vehicles. The new energy vehicle sales are expected to rise, and the demand for cobalt market is expected to rise.

Overview and prospect

Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at the Business News Agency, believes that the international cobalt price fluctuates and falls, which is negative for the domestic cobalt market. The production and sales of new energy vehicles are expected to rise, and the domestic cobalt market demand is expected to warm up. High nickel and low cobalt have become chicken ribs, the comparability of battery cobalt removal has weakened, and the demand for cobalt has increased. In the future, the new energy vehicle market is still optimistic, and the cobalt market demand is expected to increase, but the international cobalt price is still falling, and the cobalt market is expected to stabilize in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of Business News Agency, as of February 17, the average market price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in China was 8383 yuan/ton, down 4.10% from the average price of 8741 yuan/ton on February 13.

According to the data of the Business News Agency, as of February 17, the average market price of 85-content wet-process phosphoric acid in China was 8250 yuan/ton, down 6.25% from the average price of 8800 yuan/ton on February 13.

2、 Market analysis

Mainstream market:

As of February 17, the ex-factory price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Sichuan is about 8200-8600 yuan/ton, the ex-factory price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Yunnan is about 8500 yuan/ton, and the ex-factory price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei is about 8000-8600 yuan/ton. The domestic market price of 85% wet-process phosphoric acid is about 7550-9200 yuan/ton.

Cost side:

In terms of raw yellow phosphorus, the market price of Yunnan-Guizhou yellow phosphorus was lowered this week. The manufacturer has issued many preliminary orders. At present, the devices of many enterprises are in maintenance status, and the quotation is not available for the time being. The overall market trading situation is light. Under the bearish mood of the downstream, the buying enthusiasm is not high, the high-end price is difficult to deal, the operation is cautious, and the low market price frequently depresses the market confidence. Up to now, the mainstream quotation is about 31000 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is a single negotiation.

In terms of raw phosphorus ore, the overall high level of the phosphorus ore market this week was relatively strong. As of February 17, 2023, the domestic market price of 30% grade phosphate ore is around 1050-1100 yuan/ton, and the price of 28% grade phosphate ore is around 950-980 yuan/ton. The reference price of 32% grade phosphate ore is around 1180-1250 yuan/ton.

Supply and demand side:

This week, the supply of phosphoric acid market was stable, the downstream demand was low, and there were few transactions on the market. The release of terminal demand is slow, and now it is mainly wait-and-see.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

The phosphoric acid analyst of the Business Society believes that the trend of the phosphoric acid market has continued to decline recently. The price of raw yellow phosphorus fell, and the cost support weakened. Downstream demand is weak and market trading is weak. It is expected that the phosphoric acid market will be weak in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the Business News Agency, the average ex-factory price of domestic ammonium sulfate was 1230 yuan/ton on February 10 and 1186 yuan/ton on February 16. The price of ammonium sulfate fell by 3.52% this week.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the market of ammonium sulfate was weak and the trend was mainly downward. Due to the weakening of downstream demand, the bidding price of coking grade ammonium sulfate was significantly reduced this week. The start-up load of domestic units was increased, and domestic ammonium sulfate continued to be in a weak market. This week, the export demand of ammonium sulfate was still weak, and the international market performance was poor. As of February 16, the mainstream ex-factory price of coking grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong is about 1100 yuan/ton, and the mainstream ex-factory price of ammonium sulfate in Hebei is about 1150 yuan/ton. Domestic ammonium sulfate, the mainstream ex-factory price in Shandong Province is 1110-1200 yuan/ton.

The market of downstream compound fertilizer enterprises was stable this week. The price of raw material urea fell and cost support weakened. At present, compound fertilizer mainly sends orders from old customers. At present, the transaction on the market is weak, and dealers are mainly cautious and wait-and-see.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

Analysts of ammonium sulfate from the Business Society believe that the market price of ammonium sulfate has continued to be weak in recent days. The domestic and foreign market demand is weak, the downstream purchase is small, and the atmosphere of transaction on the market is not good. It is expected that the price of ammonium sulfate will move downward in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of the Business News Agency, since February, the demand of terminal paper printing and other industries has recovered, and the market of hydrogen peroxide has risen. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 750 yuan/ton. On February 14, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 766 yuan/ton, up 2.22%.

Since February, the manufacturers of terminal paper printing and other industries have resumed work, and the demand for hydrogen peroxide has increased. In addition, some hydrogen peroxide manufacturers still shut down for maintenance, and the market supply is tight. The hydrogen peroxide market was supported by a lot of profits. The mainstream quotation in Shandong was 670 yuan/ton, and the price rose by 40 yuan/ton.

According to the hydrogen peroxide analyst of the Business Agency, the positive factors have been realized in succession, and the hydrogen peroxide market in the future will gradually fall.

The market of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber weakened slightly this week (2.6-2.13). According to the monitoring of Business News Agency, as of February 13, the domestic price of cis-1,40 yuan/ton was down 1.03% from 11660 yuan/ton on Monday. The raw material butadiene price is high and firm, and the cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber supplier will basically stabilize the factory price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber in the week. Buying sentiment weakened after the market price rose, and the offer of merchants fell slightly. According to the monitoring of Business News Agency, as of February 13, the ex-factory price of butadiene rubber of Sinopec North China Sales Company was reported at 11400 yuan/ton. As of the 13th, the mainstream market of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber in Qilu, Yanshan, Yangzi, Dushanzi and Sichuan reported 11450-11750 yuan/ton, while the mainstream market of private cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber reported 11200-11300 yuan/ton.

The price of raw material butadiene rose slightly this week (2.6-2.13), and the cost of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber continued to be supported. According to the monitoring of Business News Agency, the price of butadiene was 9518 yuan/ton as of February 13, up 0.91% from 9432 yuan/ton on February 6.

The natural rubber market fell slightly this week (2.6-2.13), which was negative for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber. According to the monitoring of Business News Agency, the price of natural rubber was 11980 yuan/ton as of February 13, down 1.02% from 12104 yuan/ton last Monday.

After the Lantern Festival, the construction of downstream tire enterprises increased significantly. Because the tire factory had sufficient stock before the festival, the purchase of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber is still small, and the negotiation of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber is mainly small.

Aftermarket forecast: analysts from the Business Agency believe that the price of natural rubber will fall in the short term, and the impact on polybutadiene rubber will be short; The supply of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber is stable, and the inventory of downstream raw materials is gradually consumed. The demand for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber will increase in the later stage. It is expected that the demand for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber will rise again in the later stage.

The aluminum price fluctuated widely

According to the data of Business News Agency, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in the East China market on February 10, 2023 was 18583.33 yuan/ton, down 2.09% from the aluminum price of 18980 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month (February 1). After the aluminum price recovered in January, it was basically in a long and short position in February, with a wide range of sideways shocks.

In the long term, the current price has retreated significantly, with an increase of 6.49% compared with the average market price of aluminum ingot of 17450 yuan/ton at the beginning of the recent recovery (July 14, 2022). The recent high price of aluminum appeared on December 5, and the average market price of aluminum ingots was 19536.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.88%.

The aluminum price fluctuated widely in February, and the main factors for the decline on the 10th were:

1. Expected strengthening of supply increase

The supply increase is expected to strengthen, and the production resumption plan of Guizhou Province to reduce production capacity has been put on the agenda. The time for enterprises to resume production varies from late February to early April. The electrolytic aluminum production in Sichuan Province has resumed to nearly 70%, and Linfeng Aluminum Power has also resumed production; The news of production reduction in the early stage has not come to the ground yet, and the previously rumored power shortage in Yunnan will drive the electrolytic aluminum enterprises to increase the scale of production reduction by 60-8 million tons has not been fulfilled in time.

2. Weak cost support

The cost support is weakened, the price of alumina is basically stable, the price of anode in February is reduced by 660 yuan/ton month on month, and the price of steam coal is down.

3. There are many factories and warehouses

The accumulated inventory before and after the Spring Festival is in line with market expectations, but there are many factories and warehouses; As of February 9, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased by 173000 tons to 1188000 tons from the end of January, which is in the normal accumulation range; However, compared with the end of January, the factory warehouse increased by 35000 tons to 233000 tons, higher than the previous year’s level. Delivery pressure is concentrated on the manufacturer.

4. Downstream consumption is less than expected

After the Lantern Festival, the consumption was less than expected, the terminal construction was average, and the relevant new orders were average.

Aftermarket forecast

After the wide fluctuation of aluminum prices, there is a trend of jumping out of the operating range. It is expected that there will be little room to continue to decline in the short term. In the evening trading today, affected by the factors of the reduction of Russian crude oil production, we will wait and see whether the exploration of crude oil prices can drive the enthusiasm of futures speculation.