Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business associations, the vitamin market as a whole remained weak this week, the downstream demand was weak, and the focus of vitamin A negotiations was further lowered.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the price of vitamin C was stable this week, and the average price of food grade vitamin C was stable at 27.33 yuan/kg, with no increase or decrease, down 42.67% year on year. The factory continues to stop reporting, the traders’ prices follow the market, and the downstream demand is the main demand. The factory gives up profits and takes the goods away.

The price of raw corn has weakened. It is expected that in the second half of the month, with the increase of demand for stocking and warehouse building before the Spring Festival at the demand terminal, the price will have another opportunity to rise.

The price of vitamin A decreased slightly this week. The average price of feed grade vitamin A at the beginning of the week was 106 yuan/kg, and the average price at the weekend was 104 yuan/kg, with a weekly drop of 1.88% and a year-on-year drop of 64.27%. The current mainstream market quotation is 95-102 yuan/kg, while the European market quotation drops to 26-30 euros/kg. Foreign enterprises have plans to stop production, and the domestic market is still in a situation of oversupply. It is difficult to improve the short-term market.

The price of vitamin E is stable this week. The current VE market price is 82-84 yuan/kg, and the European market price is 8.8-9.2 euros/kg. The demand remains weak, supported by the export market, and the price of vitamins is relatively strong.

Future market forecast

According to the vitamin analyst from the Chemical Branch of the Business Community, the market demand is relatively weak in the near future, and the end customers are basically purchasing a small amount as needed. There is no good news guidance for the time being. It is expected that the vitamin market will remain weak next week, and pay close attention to the factory production downtime and delivery.

In 2022, the domestic butadiene market will generally rise first and then fall. In the first half of the year, it will mainly rise unilaterally, while in the second half of the year, it will fluctuate and decline. According to the monitoring data of the business community, the average price of domestic butadiene producers will be 4451 yuan/ton on January 1, 2022, and 6366 yuan/ton as of December 7, with an overall increase of 43.03%. The lowest price appeared at 4180 yuan/ton on January 5 of the year beginning, and the highest price appeared at 12096 yuan/ton on June 9 of the year, with the maximum amplitude of 171.75%. The highest price in the year was almost the same as that in 2021.

In the first half of 2022, the domestic butadiene market has risen unilaterally, from 4451 yuan/ton on January 1 to 12096 yuan/ton on June 9, with an overall increase of 171.75%. The main factors influencing the sharp rise of butadiene market in the first half of the year are as follows: first, the international crude oil price fluctuated at a high level, the overall environment developed well, the petrochemical industry chain rose actively, and butadiene cost was supported; Secondly, the high price of the external market drives the domestic market. The external price of Europe and Southeast Asia has risen significantly several times, and traders have followed suit; Third, the manufacturers kept raising the ex factory quotation to give confidence support to the market. Some manufacturers did not maintain their equipment or supply goods for export temporarily. The supply side also formed a strong positive effect on the market. The butadiene market performance in the first half of the year was “eye-catching”.

In the second half of the year, the domestic butadiene market was “flying downward”, and the price trend declined slowly. The price fell from 12096 yuan/ton on June 10 to 6636 yuan/ton on December 7, a decline of 47.37%. The main factors affecting the price market in the second half of the year are supply and demand. On the one hand, the main manufacturers in the Northeast, which had stopped work and were not for export temporarily, started bidding sales in the second half of the year. Although the total amount is small, it has added a little burden to the tight supply level; On the other hand, the demand is insufficient, the main downstream rubber industry is in recession, the unit operation rate is low, and the price is also low. The contradiction between supply and demand is becoming increasingly prominent, the international crude oil price is weak and volatile, the effect of the external market is not strong, and the butadiene market is difficult to turn around.

It can be seen from the price rise and fall chart of the butadiene industry chain of the business community that the products in the butadiene industry chain with prices falling all year round include styrene butadiene rubber (-11.31%), ABS (-20.54%), nitrile butadiene rubber (-37.14%) and cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber (-26.31%). The products with rising prices include butadiene (43.03%) and naphtha (1.11%).

According to the monitoring of the business community, the domestic cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber market will fluctuate and decline in 2022. The price at the beginning of the year is 14290 yuan/ton, and the price at the end of the year (as of December 7) is 10619 yuan/ton, a decline of 25.69%.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the domestic styrene butadiene rubber market will fluctuate and decline in 2022. The price at the beginning of the year is 12233 yuan/ton, and the price at the end of the year (as of December 7) is 10689 yuan/ton, a decline of 12.62%.

In 2022, the price center of butadiene market will recover from last year. The annual market price change is mainly caused by the combination of supply and demand fundamentals and other factors, among which the supply and demand fundamentals are the main driving factor affecting the annual price change. During the year, the price of the international crude oil market fluctuated and rose, which led to a sharp rise in the price of the external market, making the domestic butadiene market price rise significantly. After the price rose to a high point, with the pressure on downstream costs, it was difficult to keep up with the high price of butadiene, and some downstream manufacturers reduced production, which weakened the demand side’s support for price; At the same time, in the second half of the year, some new butadiene production capacity continued to release, the market supply was abundant, the supply side was also difficult to support the price, and the price continued to decline.

According to incomplete statistics, the annual new capacity of butadiene in China will be relatively small in 2023. At the same time, it is expected that there will be new units in the downstream or continue to be put into production, and the demand increment will be greater than the supply end increment. Butadiene analysts from the business community predict that the butadiene market price may recover in the beginning of 2023.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the domestic methanol port in East China was 2671 yuan/ton on December 6, up 0.06% from the previous working day and 0.36% year on year. On December 6, the methanol futures of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was slightly volatile, and the main contract MA2301 closed at 2502 yuan/ton in late trading, down 2.68%.

Crude oil fluctuated widely, and methanol futures were weak. In terms of spot goods, the production enterprises started the construction of the devices basically stably. In order to actively arrange the inventory, the quotation of the production enterprises was reduced by about 50-100 yuan/ton. The traders and downstream customers were in a general mood of receiving goods, and most of them purchased on demand.

The domestic methanol market may be weak in the short term.

On December 5, the mainstream quotation range of 1 # tin ingot in East China spot market was 193000-196000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 194500 yuan/ton, up 8000 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The average price in the domestic market was 194610 yuan/ton, 4.23% higher than the previous trading day, and 34.2% lower than the same period last year.

The US dollar fell for three consecutive working days overnight, boosting the metal market mentality. Today, metals rose in the morning, and Shanghai Tin rose by more than 4%, driving the spot market to rise significantly by 8000-9000 yuan/ton. As of the end of the 5th day, the settlement price of the main contract of Shanghai Tin 2301 was 190360 yuan/ton, up 3.94%.

Macroscopically, the domestic policy optimization in recent two days has boosted the market mentality. Last weekend, the US dollar fell continuously and the metal market generally rose. Fundamentals have not changed much in recent years, which still shows loose supply and weak demand. Although the downstream semiconductor industry is expected to improve in the near future, the market mentality is slightly boosted. However, the downstream procurement intention is still on demand, and the actual demand has not changed much. The business agency expects that the tin price in the future will be mainly weak in the long run, but will still be affected by the macro in the short run, maintaining a wide range of shocks.

This week, the domestic MTBE market price fell first and then rose, with an overall decline. Some enterprises adjusted their ex factory quotation for many times, at about 100-300 yuan/ton. At the beginning of the week, crude oil continued to fall deeply. In addition, the gasoline market also declined step by step. The market was pessimistic, and downstream businesses had low purchasing intentions. As the price gradually fell to a low level, and the crude oil rebounded before the weekend, the downstream replenished on bargain, and the market sales gradually improved, some regions took the opportunity to slightly increase, but the overall situation was still lower than last week.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the MTBE price remained at 7070 yuan/ton on November 25 and 6850 yuan/ton on December 2. The price fell by 3.11% during the cycle, 0.15% month on month and 8.04% year on year.

In terms of upstream products and methanol, the business community monitored that the price of domestic methanol in East China ports was weak and lower, which was 2811 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, and 2670 yuan/ton as of 10:00 a.m. on December 2, with a 5.04% drop in the price during the cycle. At present, the domestic methanol market is mainly consolidated.

In terms of external market, as of the closing on December 1, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market had risen by 16.50 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day, and FOB Singapore closed at 918.49-920.49 US dollars/ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market rose by 9.00 dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day, and FOB ARA closed at 1068.49-1068.99 dollars/ton. The closing price of the US MTBE market rose by 11.54 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the FOB Gulf price closed at 1018.84-1019.20 US dollars/ton (287.00-287.10 US cents/gallon).

Region./Country./Closing price./Up and down

Asia./FOB Singapore./918.49-920.49 USD/ton./16.5 USD/ton

Europe./FOB ARA./1068.49-1068.99 USD/ton./9 USD/ton

US./FOB Gulf./1018.84-1019.20 US dollars/ton./11.54 US dollars/ton

As the price fell to a low level, the willingness of the downstream to replenish on bargain hunting increased, and the desire of the merchants to be bullish grew. MTBE analysts from the business agency believe that the domestic MTBE market may still rise in the short term.