According to the data monitoring of the business community, the polyacrylamide commodity index on December 29 was 94.36, up 0.09 points from yesterday, down 15.38% from the highest point in the cycle of 111.51 (2021-11-03), and up 13.84% from the lowest point of 82.89 on August 2, 2020. (Note: Period refers to April 1, 2019 to now)

Commodity market: According to the data monitoring of the business community, the mainstream market of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cationic, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in China’s domestic market mainly reported about 15428.57 yuan/ton that week (December 24-29), and it was slightly adjusted to about 15442.86 yuan/ton on December 29. The release of the national public event policy has increased the number of infections in a short period of time, the manufacturer has sufficient inventory, and its production progress is affected by the reduction of the number of people on duty, the weak transportation capacity, and the reduction of downstream demand; In terms of raw materials, acrylonitrile market continued to decline, while acrylic acid steadily weakened, which was unfavorable to the support of polyacrylamide. It is preliminarily estimated that the order will continue to decrease before the year, and the polyacrylamide market will fluctuate steadily and slightly.

Raw material acrylonitrile: according to the data of the business community, the acrylonitrile market was first up and then down and then flat that week (December 24-29). As of the 29th, the price of acrylonitrile apron was 9625 yuan/ton, up 0.05% from 9620 yuan/ton on the 24th, and the highest point of the week was 9920 yuan/ton on the 27th. At present, the start of the acrylonitrile industry has declined slightly, and the inventory pressure is still large. The listing price of acrylonitrile enterprises has decreased significantly in the early stage, but remained stable in the later stage. Downstream demand was impacted within months, and the offer of merchants went down all the way. It is expected that the acrylonitrile market will be weak and consolidated in the later period.

Raw acrylic acid: according to the data of the business community, the market price of acrylic acid in the week (December 24-29) was stable at about 6800 yuan/ton. In the first ten days of this month, the market situation of acrylic acid in East China was mainly stable. The prices of some enterprises were lowered, and the cost pressure increased in the middle of this month. In addition, the load rate of production enterprises was not high, and the enthusiasm for market inquiry was increased. After the acrylic acid price rose slightly, it ran smoothly. It is expected that the acrylic acid market will be stable in the short term.

LNG for production. According to the data of the business community, the price of domestic LNG dropped by 13.30% in the week of the shock (December 24-29): the market price of LNG was about 6990 yuan/ton on December 24, and the average market price was 6060 yuan/ton on December 29. In the second half of the month, domestic LNG prices began to fall at a high level. Downstream demand support is weak, and the market continues to fall. Market supply exceeded demand, bearish sentiment on the floor increased, high liquid prices began to continue to cover the drop, and the floor lacked good support. It is expected that the market price of LNG will decline mainly in the short term.

Future market forecast: after the recent public health event policy was released, although the factory and downstream industries resumed production, the public immunity infection increased in the short term, the manufacturers started work locally, the inventory was sufficient and the demand continued to weaken. In addition, close to the New Year’s Day and New Year’s holiday, more and more logistics companies had holidays ahead of time, the transportation capacity was weak, and water treatment plants would also have holidays ahead of time on a continuous basis, It is expected that the future market of polyacrylamide will be dominated by stable and weak fluctuations.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the price of flake caustic soda this week was consolidated. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 4816.67 yuan/ton, and the average market price at the weekend was 4783.33 yuan/ton. The price fell 0.69%, up 38.65% year on year.

Upstream caustic soda

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the price of caustic soda rose this week. At the beginning of the week, the average market price in Shandong was 1124 yuan/ton. At the weekend, the average market price in Shandong was 1130 yuan/ton. The price rose 0.53%, 14.57% higher than the same period last year. At present, the average market price in Shandong is about 1090-1200 yuan/ton. The factory quotation of 32% liquid caustic soda mainstream in Hebei is about 1100-1200 yuan/ton. The price of caustic soda in the market remained stable in the mainstream, with sporadic increases as the main factor. The downstream market is mainly wait-and-see, and mostly purchases on demand. However, due to the close of the New Year, there are downstream enterprises to stock up, which supports the price of caustic soda.

According to the analysts of the business community, the flake alkali market has been consolidated and operated, with a general trading and investment atmosphere. Most downstream enterprises purchase on demand and ship on average. They are mainly wait-and-see, with a general enthusiasm for entering the market. In general, the price of flake alkali is short-term or the consolidation operation is based on the downstream market demand.

Overview of spot price trend of precious metals

According to the data from the business community, the average early price of silver market on December 21 was 5380.67 yuan/kg, up 3.39% daily, 6.02% higher than the average early price of spot market at the beginning of the month (December 1), 5065.33 yuan/kg; The average price of spot market at the beginning of the year (January 1) was 4770 yuan/kg, an increase of 12.80%.

On December 21, the spot market price of gold was 408.25 yuan/g, up 0.93% on a daily basis, 0.86% higher than the early average price of 405.91 yuan/g in the spot market at the beginning of the month (December 1); Compared with the early average price of 372.37 yuan/kg in the spot market at the beginning of the year (January 1), the increase was 9.95%.

Price trend of precious metals and crude oil

Reasons for the recent strength of precious metals

In the near future, the overall trend of strengthening precious metal monetary attributes and superimposing nonferrous sectors is still in the upward channel, and the physical demand for silver also supports the silver price to a certain extent; On the policy side, the US dollar fell. The Bank of Japan decided to review its yield curve control policy, pushing the exchange rate of the Japanese yen against the US dollar to a four month peak. As the Western Central Bank led by the Federal Reserve curbed the unsustainable inflation through radical interest rate hikes, the market expected the Federal Reserve to slow down the pace of interest rate hikes, and the policy side increased the attractiveness of capital to precious metals.

Silver performs better than gold

Comparison of precious metal gold and silver price trends in recent one year

In the long term, the trend of precious metal prices tends to be the same, with slightly different amplitudes. Recently, silver has gained a relatively large amount.

Future market of precious metals

At present, the obvious performance of the US economy entering recession is increasing, including the shrinking of manufacturing industry prosperity and the rising number of enterprise layoffs. The space for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates is gradually narrowing, and the increase of interest rates depresses the price of precious metals. However, recently, the monetary attribute of precious metals has been strengthened, supporting precious metals to a certain extent. In the short term, it is expected that the overall volatility of the precious metals market will be dominated in the short term.

Ethylene glycol price bottom support strengthened

According to the data of the business community, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4058.33 yuan/ton on December 20, basically unchanged from the previous trading day. In terms of futures, the main contract eg2301 on the 20th closed at 4080 yuan/ton, up 0.27%.

On December 20, the spot price of ethylene glycol in the East China market was basically stable, and the spot external executive price of mainstream manufacturers in East China remained at 4100 yuan/ton; At the trade flow end, the spot negotiation price in Zhangjiagang market has slightly loosened. The spot negotiation price is around 4045 yuan/ton that week, and the forward spot contract is about 4055 yuan/ton in January.

Recently, the market has stopped falling and stabilized, and the price has improved slightly, mainly based on the following factors:

1. Supply side: The unplanned maintenance of ethylene glycol has increased due to the large loss of domestic production profits. At present, the overall operating rate remains at a low level, and the overseas operation is also at a low level under the influence of poor efficiency. According to statistics, as of December 15, the overall starting load of ethylene glycol in China was 56.00%, down 0.12% compared with the previous period, of which the starting load of coal to ethylene glycol was 38.56%, down 0.77% compared with the previous period.

2. Inventory: The port inventory has rebounded. The MEG port inventory in the main port area of East China is about 980000 tons, an increase of 19000 tons month on month.

3. Strengthened cost support: the price of ethylene glycol fell to a low level. At present, the price of ethylene glycol is relatively low, and domestic manufacturers have serious losses.

4. Periodic recovery of downstream demand: terminal orders increased in December, production and sales of polyester fiber improved, and inventory of polyester manufacturers decreased. The demand for goods in the first ten days of December is good.

The main reasons for the lack of space are:

1. Inventory: The port inventory has rebounded. The MEG port inventory in the main port area of East China is about 980,000 tons, an increase of 19,000 tons month on month.

2. Downstream operating rate is expected to move down periodically: public health factors will be superimposed on the approaching holidays, the production of terminal weaving plants will be reduced, the operating load of polyester is not high, and the demand for ethylene glycol may be relatively low.

3. New production capacity is expected to be strong: the medium and long term ethylene glycol production capacity is under great pressure.

in summary:

At present, the downstream is basically in the state of digesting the stock in the first ten days of December. The atmosphere of purchasing in the market is light. From the perspective of demand side fundamentals, terminal orders have increased, polyester production and sales have improved, and polyester manufacturers’ stocks have decreased, supporting the decline of ethylene glycol prices; However, with the approaching Spring Festival superimposed with Omikjon factors, the downstream operating rate is expected to move downward periodically; On the supply side, although the operating rate of ethylene glycol is low, the port inventory has rebounded, and the pressure on the production of new ethylene glycol production capacity in the medium and long term is large, so the price of ethylene glycol is weak.

According to the data of the business community, the average price of 180CST of domestic fuel oil as of December 18 was 6086.00 yuan/ton (tax included), 1.93% lower than the price of 6206.00 yuan/ton on December 12.

On December 18, the fuel oil commodity index was 123.26, unchanged from yesterday, 9.97% lower than the cycle’s highest point of 136.91 (2022-11-17), and 167.49% higher than the lowest point of 46.08 on August 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

International crude oil prices rose, supported by the cost of ship fuel market. According to the business community, as of December 18, the 180cst self raised low sulfur quotation of fuel oil in the Zhoushan area of CNGC was 6000 yuan/ton, and the 120cst self raised low sulfur quotation of fuel oil was 6100 yuan/ton; The price of 180cst self raised low sulfur of fuel oil in CNGC Shanghai is 6180 yuan/ton, and the price of 120cst self raised low sulfur of fuel oil is 6230 yuan/ton.

International crude oil prices rose. The US ISM non manufacturing index unexpectedly increased in November, reflecting that the domestic economy is still resilient. The continued economic boom has triggered market concerns about the Federal Reserve’s transition from “dove” to “eagle”, which may disappoint the Federal Reserve’s previous desire to slow interest rate increases. The market provides the basis for the Federal Reserve to curb inflation and maintain the monetary tightening path. The activity of American oil and gas drilling platforms has decreased, OPEC+has maintained its production reduction measures, and the recent international crude oil market has experienced a “six consecutive declines” or a technical rebound that temporarily supported oil prices. However, because the inflation index is still higher than expected, the probability of the Federal Reserve continuing to raise interest rates by 50 basis points is still high. In addition, in the context of the increased risk of global economic recession, the slowing down of demand growth in the future is a certainty. The overall economy is weak, and the prospect of energy demand is still not optimistic. The economic weakness has depressed oil prices.

Singapore’s fuel oil inventory decreased, supporting fuel oil prices. It is reported that the Singapore Enterprise Development Board (ESG): As of the week of December 14, Singapore’s fuel inventory had decreased by 217,000 barrels, falling to a two-week low of 20,089,000 barrels. Singapore’s middle distillate oil inventory fell 113000 barrels to 6.953 million barrels, a four week low. Singapore’s light distillate stocks rose 303000 barrels to a two-week high of 13.691 million barrels.

Future forecast: the international crude oil price trend is unstable, the domestic ship fuel market has a strong wait-and-see mood, the terminal replenishment capacity is limited, and the purchase is mainly based on demand, and the transaction is average. At present, the 180CST low sulfur market price of fuel oil is about 6000-6300 yuan/ton, and the 120CST low sulfur market price of fuel oil is about 6100-6350 yuan/ton. It is expected that the 180CST market of fuel oil in the near future will be dominated by the weak.

The butadiene rubber market rose slightly this week (12.9-12.16). According to the monitoring of the business community, as of December 16, the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber in China was 10,610 yuan/ton, up 0.76% from 10,530 yuan/ton last Friday. At the beginning of this month, after the factory price of cis polybutadiene rubber dropped significantly, it has remained stable in the near future. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of December 16, the ex factory price of butadiene rubber of Sinopec North China Sales Company had reported 10,100 yuan/ton, and the offer of merchants had rebounded slightly after a sharp fall. As of December 16, the mainstream market of butadiene rubber in Qilu, Yanshan, Yangzi, Dushanzi, Sichuan and other regions had reported 10,400~11,100 yuan/ton, and the mainstream market of private butadiene rubber had reported 10,100~10,300 yuan/ton.

Daqing, Sichuan, Maoming, Qixiang and other Shunting Butadiene plants have high load or full load production, and Haopu and other early maintenance devices have been restarted. In general, the pressure on the supply side of Shunting Butadiene Rubber is still there.

The price of raw butadiene rose this week (12.9-12.16), while the cost of cis polybutadiene rubber rose slightly. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of December 16, the price of butadiene was 6755 yuan/ton, up 2.87% from 6566 yuan/ton last Friday.

The natural rubber market rose slightly this week (12.9-12.16), supporting cis polybutadiene rubber. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of December 16, the price of natural rubber was 12470 yuan/ton, up 0.40% from 12420 yuan/ton last Friday.

The demand side increased slightly, and the downstream tire enterprises continued to increase this week. According to the business agency, the construction of semi steel tires in Shandong is around 6.60%, and that of full steel tires is around 0.60%.

Future market forecast: according to the analysts of the business association, the supply pressure of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber is still present, the demand has improved, and the cost has risen slightly. It is expected that the market of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber will rise slightly in the short term.

On December 15, the mainstream quotation range of 1 # tin ingot in East China spot market was 191500-193500 yuan/ton, with an average price of 192500 yuan/ton, 2500 yuan/ton lower than the previous trading day. The average price in the domestic market was 192520 yuan/ton, down 1.43% and 34.35% year on year compared with the previous trading day.

On the night of the 14th, the metal market fell more or less. Shanghai Tin fell about 1.4%, while London Tin fell 1.04%. In the morning trading, Shanghai Tin continued its decline. As of the closing of the Shanghai Tin 2301 contract on the 15th, the closing settlement price was 19350 yuan/ton, down 1.22%.

The overall trading in the spot market is slightly weak, with limited turnover. Downstream purchasing remains in demand. Fundamentals have not changed much in the near future as a whole, showing no loose supply and weak demand. Recently, the output of the refinery has increased slightly, and the supply is loose. At present, the downstream procurement intention is still on demand, and the actual market demand has little change. The business agency expects that the tin price in the future will be mainly weak in the long run, but will still be affected by the macro in the short run, maintaining a wide range of shocks.

Trend Chart of Average Acetone Price in National Mainstream Market

Today, the port supply of goods increased, and the shipping intention of the cargo holders increased. However, the terminal factory bid was low, and the market mentality was poor, leading to the market continued to decline.

The offer of acetone in major mainstream markets in China is as follows:

Region./Quotation./Rise/Fall

East China./5800./- 80

Shandong region./6100./- 50

Yanshan District./6120./- 50

South China/5800./- 80

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the average market price of the manufacturers of petroleum asphalt in Shandong on December 13 was 3421 yuan/ton, down 0.08% from the previous trading day and up 11.03% year on year. On December 13, the main asphalt contract 2302 closed at 3474 yuan/ton, up 101 or 2.99% from the previous trading day.

The international crude oil price rebounded sharply, and the cost side drove the asphalt futures up. In terms of spot goods, affected by the weather, market demand is gradually weakening, and most refineries are selling at reduced prices. At present, the market is gradually entering the stage of winter storage, and the downstream delivery is relatively flat.

The short-term spot asphalt market is mainly on the sidelines.

Zinc price rises in shock this week

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the zinc price was 25214 yuan/ton as of December 12, up 0.89% from 24992 yuan/ton on December 1. This week, the low inventory demand in the zinc market recovered, and the zinc price rose in shock.

Low level of zinc ingot inventory

It can be seen from the trend chart of zinc ingot inventory in Shanghai futures market that the low level of zinc ingot inventory in Shanghai futures market is temporarily stable in the near future, the supply of zinc ingot is tight, and the upward momentum of zinc ingot is great.

Supply and demand factors

In terms of supply, the cold wave is coming, domestic electricity is occupying industrial electricity, European zinc smelting may be affected by production reduction, and zinc supply is expected to shrink.

In terms of demand, stock up or start in advance during the Spring Festival, increasing short-term demand.

Future market forecast

According to the data analysts of the business community; The Federal Reserve has slowed down the pace of interest rate increase, easing the concern about the economic recession in the international market. The prevention and control measures have been greatly optimized in China. The expectation of macroeconomic recovery has been strengthened. The Spring Festival stock may come ahead of time, and demand has warmed up. To sum up, the supply of zinc is insufficient and the demand is rebounding, and the zinc price is expected to rise in shock.