Aluminum price rose 5.13% on November

According to the data of the business community, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in the East China market on November 30 was 18983.33 yuan/ton, down 1.5% from 19273.33 yuan/ton on November 18. However, according to the monthly data, the current price is 5.13% higher than the price at the beginning of the month.

In the long term, the average price of aluminum ingot market is 17450 yuan/ton, up 8.79% from the recent recovery (July 14, 2022).

Macro positive

1. The National Bureau of Statistics released data and preliminarily calculated that the gross domestic product in the first three quarters was 87026.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.0% at constant prices, 0.5 percentage points faster than that in the first half of the year. On a month on month basis, GDP grew by 3.9% in the third quarter.

2. Terminal demand. According to the data of the Passenger Association, China’s retail sales of generalized passenger cars in October increased by 7.2% year on year. In October, the retail sales of new energy passenger cars reached 556000 units, a year-on-year increase of 75.2% and a month on month decrease of 9.0%. From January to October, a trend was formed. The real estate policy has many advantages. The real estate policy has good news.

Fundamentals Overview

On the supply side, due to environmental protection, cost and other problems in the heating season in the north, the output of about 100000 tons has been reduced slightly, but Sichuan, Guangxi and other real estates can continue to repair. At present, Sichuan has recovered about 30%, and the operating capacity is 360000 tons. Therefore, the domestic electrolytic aluminum supply in November was generally stable, with a small increase. At present, the domestic electrolytic operation capacity has increased by about 270,000 tons to 40.61 million tons compared with the beginning of November. The domestic electrolytic aluminum output in November (30 days) is about 3.337 million tons, up 8.8% year on year.

In terms of inventory: according to the statistics of inventory in mainstream areas, it is still at the level of more than 500,000 tons. On November 28, 2022, the social inventory of domestic electrolytic aluminum will be 516000 tons, 2000 tons less than that of last Thursday, 97000 tons less than that of last Thursday, 498000 tons less than that of the same period last year.

In terms of demand, the aluminum price fell at the end of the month, mainly due to soft demand. According to statistics, the operating rate of domestic leading downstream aluminum processing enterprises fell 0.8 percentage points month on month to 66.3%.

On the overseas side, the overseas electrolytic aluminum production capacity has reduced by about 2 million tons due to the energy crisis or maintenance strike. However, within the month, LME decided not to take further measures against RUSAL, which eased supply concerns.

Future market forecast

On the one hand, the aluminum price in November was boosted by the positive release of real estate policies in the terminal market, on the other hand, the pace of interest rate increase in the United States slowed down, the US dollar index fell back to a high level, and the nonferrous metal sector recovered as a whole. The overall aluminum price is rising and warming up. At present, low inventory has a certain support for aluminum price, but the terminal is gradually entering the low consumption season. The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises may gradually decline, and the inventory may increase. In the short term, supply and demand are relatively stable, and the probability of sideways trading is expected to increase.

Adjustment of DOP price weakness in November

According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of November 29, the DOP price was 10000 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton or 1.48% from 10150 yuan/ton on November 1. In November, DOP prices fell in shock, and the weak DOP market was adjusted.

Adjustment of price weakness of raw material isooctanol

According to the price monitoring of the business community, as of November 29, the price of isooctanol was 9166.67 yuan/ton, down 0.36% from 9200 yuan/ton on November 1. Affected by the frequent outbreaks of the epidemic, isooctanol started to adjust, the demand for plasticizers was low, and the price of isooctanol was weak.

Price of raw material phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell

According to the price monitoring of the business community, as of November 29, the quotation of phthalic anhydride by o-benzene method was 8687.50 yuan/ton, down 7.95% from the price of 9437.50 yuan/ton on November 1. The price of ortho phthalic acid dropped in shock, the operating rate of ortho phthalic anhydride increased, the supply of phthalic anhydride increased, and the price of ortho phthalic anhydride fell in shock.

The output of plastic products decreased year on year

According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the output of plastic products in October was 6.685 million tons, down 3.7% year on year. The output of plastic products declined, the demand for plasticizers decreased, and the downward pressure on plasticizers increased.

Future market expectation

According to the DOP data analysts of the business agency, in terms of cost, the prices of raw materials, such as isooctanol and phthalic anhydride, fell sharply in November, and the cost of DOP fell; On the demand side, the output of plastic products declined, the demand for plasticizers remained weak, and on the supply side, the plasticizer manufacturers started to work steadily. In general, the demand for DOP cost reduction is weak, and it is expected that the future DOP price will be adjusted due to weak shocks.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business community, on the 28th, the average price of nickel in the spot market was 197016.67 yuan/ton, down 3.22% from the previous trading day and up 28.76% year on year.

Oil prices were subdued and weakened, with Rennie closing down 2.36% the following week. In November, the initial value of the US PMI was lower than expected, and the domestic market ushered in the reduction of the reserve ratio. Under the interweaving of long and short, it was difficult for the nickel price to go out of the trend market in the future. With the continuous accumulation of nickel stocks and the fact that the epidemic situation has curbed demand, businesses are afraid of high prices and rarely make deals. In terms of nickel ore, the supply and demand remain weak, but the willingness to support the price of the mine is strong, which is expected to be unsustainable due to the weak fundamentals. In terms of downstream stainless steel, the scale of production reduction of steel mills may be expanded in the future, which will form a certain support for the price of stainless steel. However, the downstream transactions are not improved, making it difficult for stainless steel to continue to make breakthroughs upward. Nickel price tends to be weak due to short-term shocks.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the domestic PTA market showed a trend of first rising and then falling in November. As of November 27, the average price of the domestic PTA spot market was 5550 yuan/ton, down 2.42% from the beginning of the month. In the first ten days, thanks to the good supply of crude oil and its own, the shock became stronger. However, since the middle of the year, the new devices are about to be launched, the cost is weakening, and the demand is poor. Under the superposition of many bad news, the PTA price shows a downward trend.

On the supply side, the production of new PTA devices was delayed in the first ten days of November, and the load of large plants was reduced, which boosted the upward price shock of PTA. However, with the improvement of processing costs, the production intention of PTA plants has risen, and most domestic devices have completed annual maintenance. The current industry operating rate remains above 74%. In addition, PTA’s new capacity is about to be tested, and the accumulated warehouse is expected to rise.

After the middle of November, the international crude oil price also fell significantly. As of the 23rd, the settlement price of the main contract of the U.S. WTI crude oil futures was 77.94 dollars/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was 85.41 dollars/barrel. The Federal Reserve hinted that the interest rate increase was far from over. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) again lowered the growth expectation of global crude oil demand in 2022. On the whole, crude oil prices declined.

The order of textile terminal enterprises is sluggish, and the drag on the demand side may be more obvious. After the end of the traditional peak season of “Jin Jiu Yin Shi”, the downstream polyester plants are more willing to ease the inventory pressure through the way of profit giving promotion and exchange of price for quantity. However, because the terminal textile enterprises are not willing to take the goods and mainly purchase for rigid demand, the effect of inventory reduction is not good, and the polyester plants are forced to choose to reduce the burden, reducing the demand for PTA.

Analysts from the business community believe that PTA cost support is somewhat loose at present, and terminal demand is weak. Downstream polyester is facing double pressures of high inventory and low profits, so there is a weakening expectation on the cost side and the demand side. However, under the influence of the current tight PTA spot liquidity and poor logistics, the downward trend of PTA will be restrained. On the whole, PTA prices in December were still volatile and weak.

Trade name: PVC

Latest price: 5974.29 yuan/ton

Key points for analysis: The PVC market on November 24 was fair and flexible. Futures prices rose today, and the confidence of the spot market improved accordingly. At present, the downstream of the PVC spot market is still dominated by rigid demand. The traders take the goods properly, and the market transaction atmosphere is fair. Forecast: In the short term, the PVC spot market is stable and good.

The styrene market fell on November 23. Shandong’s styrene production was 8066.67 yuan/ton, down 0.92% from the previous trading day and 5.93% year on year. Recently, the spot price of styrene has declined due to shocks. The US dollar price of styrene in Asia fell, while the price of pure benzene fluctuated at a low level, and the cost support was weak. At present, the supply of styrene is increasing, and the downstream is purchasing on demand. The market transaction is not good, and the pressure on styrene shipment is great, so the market is falling. The spot stock of styrene is abundant, and the short-term styrene market is expected to fall mainly.

The aluminum price was stable on the 22nd

According to the data from the business community, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in the East China market on November 22 was 19036.67 yuan/ton, up 0.09% daily; The price was 5.43% higher than that at the beginning of the month.

In the long term, the average price of aluminum ingot market is 17450 yuan/ton compared with the recent recovery starting point (July 14, 2022), and the recent recovery is 9.09% higher. On the whole, it is still in the stage of platform shock after the recovery.

Industry data list

1. Import and export data

In October 2022, 429700 tons of aluminum ingots were imported, a year-on-year decrease of 66.11%. Among them, China imported 67400 tons of aluminum ingots in October, an increase of 4.27% month on month and a decrease of 51.78% year on year.

From January to October 2022, China exported 192900 tons of aluminum ingots, an increase of 187200 tons year-on-year. Among them, in October 2022, China exported 0.64 million tons of aluminum ingots, a month on month decrease of 66.53%.

2. Inventory data

According to the inventory data, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum in the main domestic market fell on a month on month basis. On the 21st, the mainstream social inventory was about 529000 tons, compared with 574000 tons on the 7th, and 45000 tons went out of stock.

Future market forecast

At present, the supply and demand are relatively stable, and the low inventory has a certain support for the aluminum price. In the short term, it is expected that the trend will still be dominated by sideways shocks.

1、 Price data

As of November 20, the average ex factory price of domestic local refining hydrogenated naphtha mainstream was 8144.75 yuan/ton, down 0.51% from 8186.33 yuan/ton on November 14. The actual transaction price of local refining hydrogenated naphtha was about 80000-8200 yuan/ton.

As of November 20, the average ex factory price of domestic straight run naphtha mainstream was 7759.00 yuan/ton, down 1.02% from 7838.67 yuan/ton on November 14. The actual transaction price of local straight run naphtha was about 7700-7900 yuan/ton.

On November 20, the naphtha commodity index was 100.52, unchanged from yesterday, 17.36% lower than the highest point of 121.64 (2022-03-10) in the cycle, and 137.97% higher than the lowest point of 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The price of refined naphtha fell this week, and the terminal ethylene and reforming were lack of obvious advantages. The purchase was based on demand, the refinery was active in shipping, and the merchants were mainly wait-and-see. The transaction was cautious.

Upstream: The international crude oil price fell in shock, and the Federal Reserve suggested that the interest rate increase was far from over, and it was not close to the end of monetary tightening. At present, the interest rate increase of the Federal Reserve has limited impact on inflation, which is not enough to reduce inflation. The Federal Reserve may need to take more tightening measures to curb inflation in the future, which will affect the decline of crude oil prices. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) once again lowered the growth expectation of global crude oil demand in 2022. With the risk of global economic recession intensifying, the future slowdown of demand growth is a certainty, and fuel demand will also face pressure. The slowing demand of China, the largest oil importer, also caused widespread concern among investors, and the oil market fell sharply. In addition, the overall economy is weak, and the prospect of energy demand is still not optimistic. The economic weakness depresses oil prices.

Downstream: According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of toluene rose first and then fell this week. On November 11, the price was 7410 yuan/ton, and on November 18, the price was 7440 yuan/ton, up 0.4%. The price of mixed xylene rose slightly this week. On November 11, the price was 8040 yuan/ton, and on November 18, the price was 8100 yuan/ton, 0.75% higher than that of last week. In terms of PX market, the price trend of this week was temporarily stable. As of the weekend, the domestic ex factory price of paraxylene was 8600 yuan/ton, which was unchanged from the price of 8600 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week.

3、 Future market forecast

The energy analysts of the business agency believe that the international crude oil price fell in shock this week, and the cost support of the naphtha market is limited; The terminal ethylene and reforming are lack of obvious advantages, and the procurement is mainly based on demand. The merchants have a strong wait-and-see mood and are cautious in the transaction. It is expected that the refining of naphtha in the near future will fluctuate downward.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business cooperatives, the average market price of 55% powdered monoammonium was 3050 yuan/ton on November 14, and the average market price of 55% powdered monoammonium was 3125 yuan/ton on November 18. The price of monoammonium phosphate rose 2.46% this week.

According to the data from the bulk list of business cooperatives, the average price of 64% of diammonium phosphate on November 14 was 3700 yuan/ton, and on November 18, the average price of 64% of diammonium phosphate on November 18 was 3766 yuan/ton. The price of diammonium phosphate rose 1.80% this week.

2、 Market analysis

Ammonium phosphate market continued to run well this week. Influenced by the high raw material market and lower operating rate, the price of monoammonium has risen significantly, and the bullish atmosphere of diammonium is strong. The operating rate of downstream compound fertilizer enterprises increased, and the demand for raw materials increased. At present, most ammonium phosphate manufacturers have suspended the quotation, and the dealer’s quotation has been raised, so the supply of goods is relatively small. This week, 55% of the factory price of powdered monoammonium in Hubei was 3000-3200 yuan/ton, 55% of the factory price of powdered monoammonium in Anhui was 3150-3300 yuan/ton, and 55% of the factory price of powdered monoammonium in Sichuan was 3100-3250 yuan/ton. The actual transaction was negotiated. This week, 64% of diammonium chloride in Hubei Province quoted about 3600 yuan/ton, 64% of diammonium chloride in Yunnan Province quoted 3650-4000 yuan/ton, 64% of diammonium chloride in Guizhou Province quoted about 3600 yuan/ton, and 64% of diammonium chloride in Shandong Province quoted 3600-3700 yuan/ton. The actual transaction was negotiated.

In terms of raw sulfur, the price of sulfur rose slightly this week. On November 18, the reference price of sulfur in East China was 1363 yuan/ton. The sulfur quotation of refinery enterprises in Shandong Province has been stable and dynamic. The mainstream price of solid sulfur is about 1320-1470 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of liquid sulfur is 1250-1390 yuan/ton. The quotation is for reference only, and the actual transaction price shall prevail. The market of monoammonium phosphate is good, and the purchase of monoammonium phosphate in the market has improved. The refineries in Shandong are actively shipping, and the operators are wait-and-see.

In terms of raw phosphorous ore and raw phosphorous ore, the domestic phosphorous ore market was stable and consolidated this week. The information on the supply and demand side of the domestic medium and high-end grade phosphate ore market has not changed much. The supply side continues to be tight, while the demand side just needs to purchase. The trading atmosphere in the phosphate rock yard is mild. As of November 18, the market price of 30% grade phosphate rock in China is around 1030-1080 yuan/ton. There is also a gap between the price and the original ore specification, powder to lump ratio and other factors, and the details need to be negotiated.

3、 Future market forecast

Ammonium phosphate analysts from the business community believe that the price of ammonium phosphate raw materials has risen recently, increasing the cost pressure. The operating rate of the manufacturer is reduced, and the on-site supply is reduced. The winter reserve market in the northeast market is about to start, and downstream inquiries are increasing. The bullish sentiment in the industry is rising due to multiple advantages. It is expected that the price of ammonium phosphate will continue to rise in the short term.

Trade name: urea

Latest price (November 17): 2658 yuan/ton

On November 17, the comprehensive price of domestic urea rose slightly, 0.15% higher than that on November 16, and 2.63% higher than that on the same period last year. The upstream Yangquan anthracite (washing block) price is about 1630 yuan/ton, the price is temporarily stable, and the cost support is general. In terms of demand, winter storage of chemical fertilizers has been fully started, and industrial demand has increased. The operating rate of the compound fertilizer plant has risen, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement is good. The board and melamine enterprises started in general, and just needed to purchase. From the aspect of supply: environmental protection inspection in Shanxi has been delayed. In late November, the gas head enterprise started to stop for maintenance, and the daily urea production will further decline. Meanwhile, the delivery of urea is blocked.

In the future, the domestic urea market price is expected to rise slightly, with the average market price at about 2680 yuan/ton.