According to the data of the business community, the average price of the silver market in the morning on October 14 was 4411.67 yuan/kg, a daily drop of 0.71%, up 0.99% from the average price of the spot market at the beginning of the month (October 1) of 4367.33 yuan/kg; Compared with the early average price of spot market at the beginning of the year (January 1), 4770 yuan/kg, a decrease of 7.51%.

On October 14, the spot gold market price was 392.24 yuan/g, down 0.14% on a daily basis, up 0.62% from the early average of 389.84 yuan/g at the beginning of the month (October 1); Compared with the early average price of 372.37 yuan/kg in the spot market at the beginning of the year (January 1), the increase was 5.34%.

Comparison of precious metal gold and silver price trends in recent one year

In the long term, the trend of precious metal prices tends to be the same, with slightly different amplitudes.

Price trend of precious metals and crude oil

Macro policy

1. Domestic policy

The People’s Bank of China launched a 7-day 10 billion yuan reverse repo operation this week. Since 357 billion yuan reverse repo expired this week, a net withdrawal of 347 billion yuan was realized that week.

2. International policy

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note fell 5.30 basis points to 3.901%. The UK 30-year bond yield fell 31 basis points to 4.24%.

According to CME’s “Federal Reserve Observation”: the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 50 basis points to the range of 3.50% – 3.75% in November is 3.7%, the probability of raising interest rates by 75 basis points is 96.3%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 100 basis points is 0%; By December, the probability of an accumulative interest rate increase of 100 basis points is 1.0%, the probability of an accumulative interest rate increase of 125 basis points is 27.6%, and the probability of an accumulative interest rate increase of 150 basis points is 71.5%.

Kazaks, the governing committee of the European Central Bank, said that the European Central Bank should raise interest rates by 75 basis points in October, and then raise interest rates sharply again in December. Subsequently, the European Central Bank should slow down the rate of interest increase, but it may be supplemented by other measures, such as shrinking the balance sheet. The new internal model submitted by the staff of the European Central Bank to the Management Committee at the meeting last week shows that the terminal interest rate of this round of interest rate increase cycle is 2.25%.

Future market forecast

Recently, the contradiction of geopolitical conflict has escalated, the European energy crisis has continued, the risk aversion of precious metals has been boosted, and the risk aversion buying has supported precious metals. However, the consumer inflation of the core CPI in the United States hit a new 40 year high in September, and the service inflation continued to rise. The CPI achieved the fourth consecutive interest rate increase of 75 basis points in November. The risk of the Federal Reserve postponing the rate increase originally scheduled to slow down from December has increased, and the rate increase is expected to curb the price of interest free precious metals. The long short game intensified, and the price of precious metals fluctuated widely in the short term.

Commodity name: yellow phosphorus

The latest price on October 13: 37250 yuan/ton

Key points for analysis: The yellow phosphorus market was basically stable on October 13, with a slight drop. After the National Day, the price of yellow phosphorus rose slightly and then fell slightly. At present, the manufacturers mainly pay high prices. Some manufacturers do not make external quotations. The downstream market replenishes goods as needed. The yellow phosphorus market is not warm and hot. It is expected that yellow phosphorus will be mainly put into operation in the short term.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the price of quasi first grade metallurgical coke in Shanxi Province was 2600 yuan/ton on October 12, unchanged from the previous trading day.

The coking coal market has been operating stably, moderately and strongly in the near future. The coal mines in the main production areas have plans to limit production and stop production in the near future. It is estimated that the market is expected to tighten in about 5-7 days. The transportation in some areas is still blocked at present, which has a certain impact on the shipment. The tight supply supports the higher price of coking coal.

In terms of supply, motor transport is still limited in some cities of Shanxi today, and the supply of raw materials and coke export of some enterprises are affected to varying degrees. The production and marketing situation in other regions has not changed much, and the inventory in the factory is generally low. In terms of downstream demand, the recent commencement of steel plants has maintained a high level of stability, the overall demand for coke is relatively stable, and the coke demand is still there. In the future market, the sales of finished products have improved to a certain extent, the demand for coke procurement is still good, and the mentality of coking enterprises is strong. It is expected that the coke market will operate stably, moderately and strongly in the short term. The future market will focus on the impact of transportation and the profit of coke steel enterprises on coke prices.

It can be seen from the trend chart that the market price of paraxylene has risen. The domestic price of paraxylene has risen by 300 yuan/ton to 9300 yuan/ton. Recently, the domestic supply of paraxylene is normal, the domestic PX operating rate is more than 70%, and the domestic supply of paraxylene is average. In addition, the operation of overseas plants is normal, the domestic price of paraxylene has risen. During the National Day holiday, the trend of international oil prices rose, and the price of PX external market rose. On the 10th, the closing prices in Asia were 1110-1112 US dollars/ton FOB South Korea and 1128-1130 US dollars/ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX devices in Asia was normal. On the whole, the operating rate of PX devices in Asia was about 60%, and the supply of PX goods in Asia was normal. Chen Ling, an analyst at PX Business Agency, believed that the current short-term crude oil price remained high, The downstream PTA and textile industry started to rise, and the market price of paraxylene rose slightly in the later period.

On the cost side, the trend of crude oil during the festival was strong, and the external market rose continuously, boosting the domestic pure benzene market. Factory shipments in Shandong are good, and prices continue to rise. The price of the main refinery was raised, and the market center rose again.

After the festival, the demand for aniline was strong, the situation of tight spot supply on the market continued, and the price of aniline continued to rise. The raw material level is still likely to rise, supported by the cost, and the trend of aniline is strong. Today, the price in Shandong is 13100-13570 yuan/ton; The price of aniline in East China is 13800-14000 yuan/ton.

In September, the domestic polyester staple fiber prices showed a small upward trend. According to the price test of the business community, the average price of domestic polyester staple fiber spot market on September 30 was 7926 yuan/ton, 2.81%% higher than the price of 7710 at the beginning of the month, 7.94% higher than the same period last year. In the futures market, the staple fiber contract at the end of the month closed at 7152 (settlement price 7148), down 4.23% from the beginning of the month.

Industrial chain: In September, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 75 basis points and repeated outbreaks, which depressed the demand for crude oil and lowered the international crude oil price. By the end of the month, the settlement price of the main contract of US WTI crude oil futures had been 82.15 dollars/barrel, down 8.26% for the whole month. In September, the maintenance and restart of domestic PTA plants coexisted, and the output increased slightly. However, it is still in a tight balance, the pattern of social inventory reduction continues, and the current supply of goods in the spot market is still tight. In September, the domestic PTA spot market rose first and then fell. In September, the overall domestic ethylene glycol started operation at a relatively low rate, and the capacity utilization rate was about 50%. The price of ethylene glycol was low in the early stage, which brought about a slight improvement in the price after the supply contraction this month. However, some devices are planned to restart in the near future, and the supply is expected to recover at a low level. In September, the domestic pure polyester yarn and polyester cotton yarn market continued to be light, and the market price was basically stable. Downstream orders lacked the downward impact of superimposed costs, and prices fell slightly near the end of the month.

Supply and demand: In September, the short fiber unit was overhauled more frequently, and the supply decreased. The downstream has also entered the traditional peak season of the year. The starting load of the yarn mill and textile mill has increased, and the demand has improved month on month. Affected by typhoon weather and epidemic prevention and control this month, the logistics transportation was blocked in the short term, and the supply of goods available for spot circulation was tight. The spot price of staple fiber rose slightly throughout the month, with a trend significantly stronger than that of futures.

Analysts from the business community believe that the recent rise in geopolitical tensions, coupled with hurricane weather, has led to a temporary reduction in crude oil supply in the US Gulf, boosting the rebound in oil prices, and strengthening the cost end support of polyester staple fiber. In October, the textile terminals may gradually turn to the peak season, the operating rate is expected to rise, and the demand may improve. With the restart of the unit after maintenance and the implementation of new capacity, the supply pressure of staple fiber may increase in October. It is expected that polyester staple fiber will show a strong trend of shock in October. Pay attention to changes in crude oil prices, plant restart and downstream orders.

On October 8, the price of acetic acid in East China was 3462.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.83% compared with that before the National Day. The price of methanol in the upstream was higher, and the cost support was good. The demand in the downstream was fair during the National Day, and the enterprise was optimistic. The quotation was raised during the National Day, and the focus of market negotiation was moved up. However, on the whole, the market supply and demand were deadlocked, and the downstream demand was limited. It was expected that the short-term acetic acid market would wait and see to sort out and operate, and the price would rise slightly. The specific focus was on market transactions.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, during the National Day holiday, the hydrogen peroxide market fell sharply, by nearly 3%. On October 1, the average price of hydrogen peroxide in the market was 920 yuan/ton. On October 7, the average price of hydrogen peroxide in the market was 893 yuan/ton, down 2.9%.

Weak terminal demand Hydrogen peroxide market fell

During the National Day holiday, hydrogen peroxide terminal printing, paper industry and other manufacturers stopped for maintenance, terminal demand turned weak, manufacturers were not confident in pricing, and they lowered the factory price one after another. The hydrogen peroxide market fell, with the mainstream quotation dropping to 890 yuan/ton, a drop of more than 2%.

Hydrogen peroxide analysts from the business community believe that after the festival, terminal demand is not good, hydrogen peroxide manufacturers have started up in succession, and the supply is sufficient, and hydrogen peroxide may continue to weaken in the future market.