DOP price rose on September 15

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the DOP price rose on September 15, and the DOP market recovered. On September 15, the DOP price was 10187.50 yuan/ton, up 2.13% from 9975 yuan/ton on September 14; On September 14, the DOP commodity index was 71.97, up 0.18 points from yesterday, down 36.57% from the cycle’s highest point of 113.46 (2021-08-04), and up 74.98% from the lowest point of 41.13 on April 7, 2020. (Note: the cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now). The price of raw materials rose, the cost of DOP rose, and the market of DOP rose.

Key points of analysis

The price of raw material isooctanol rose, the price of phthalic anhydride rose, and the cost of DOP rose; The price of downstream plastic PVC is stabilizing, and the demand is temporarily stable; The plasticizer’s downward pressure weakens and the upward momentum increases.

Future market expectation

The demand for rising costs is temporarily stable, the driving force for DOP to rise increases, and the downward pressure is weakened. It is expected that DOP prices will rise in a volatile way in the future.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the average market price of the manufacturers of petroleum asphalt in Shandong Province on September 14 was 4438 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, with a year-on-year increase of 29.51%. On September 14, the domestic asphalt futures market closed at 3674 yuan/ton, down 3.80%.

Asphalt futures mainly maintained weak decline, and the overall bearish intention was heavy. In terms of spot goods, the fundamentals of asphalt spot goods are slightly flat, the mainstream quotation in Shandong is stable and downward, and the refinery concentration increases significantly, so the inventory has increased. Downstream operators mainly purchase on demand, and the terminal demand is fair in the near future.

In the short term, the domestic asphalt market is mainly weak and volatile.

At the opening of the morning, Changchun chemical and Lihua yiweiyuan, the main domestic factories, once again increased by 100 yuan / ton. Due to the increasing cost pressure after the continuous increase of phenolketones before the festival, the factories returning to the market after the festival increased, but the downstream follow-up of returning to the market after the festival was limited, and the actual volume was seriously insufficient. From the downstream point of view, the rising trend is slowing down, mainly for bisphenol A contracts. However, at present, the social circulation resources of bisphenol A are limited, and the carriers are obviously not under pressure, and they can not come out at a low level. Pay close attention to the factory offer and on-site actual orders in the short term.

The quotation of bisphenol A in the domestic mainstream market today:

Region, quotation, rise and fall

East China, 13400., 50

Shandong, 13450, 100

On September 6, zinc price rose

According to the data monitoring of the business association, the zinc price rose on September 6, and the zinc market rose. On September 6, the average market price of zinc ingots in East China was 24876 yuan / ton, up 1.49% from 24510 yuan / ton on the previous trading day, up 8.96% year-on-year.

Key points of analysis

The data released by the Shanghai Futures Exchange show that the inventory of zinc futures in Shanghai has continued to decline recently. On September 6, the inventory decreased to 49253 tons, falling to a new low in seven months. The inventory of zinc market decreased, and the momentum of zinc market increased.

Future forecast

Domestic zinc market inventory decreased, London zinc inventory increased, zinc market supply decreased slightly, and zinc price is expected to rise slightly in the future.

According to the price monitoring of business community, the average price of sulfur in East China was 1106.67 yuan / ton on September 5, down 4.87% from the previous working day, and the market was weak.

The downstream sulfuric acid market continues to operate weakly, the ammonium phosphate Market is generally traded, the downstream demand for sulfur is insufficient, and the support is limited. The sulfur refineries in Shandong mainly supply the surrounding acid plants, and the shipment is OK. The port market is weak and downward, the operators’ mentality is light, and the sulfur price falls, which has weak support for the domestic sulfur price. It is expected that the short-term sulfur market will consolidate and operate, and the price range will fluctuate. Pay attention to the follow-up situation of the downstream.

Product Name: urea

Latest price (September 2): 2400 yuan / ton

On September 2, the comprehensive price of domestic urea was temporarily stable, which was the same as that on September 1, with a year-on-year decrease of 3.23%. The price of upstream anthracite increased slightly, and the cost support was good. Agricultural demand is small, and industrial demand is gradually expanding. The start-up of enterprises in the rubber plate factory is low, mainly in the need of purchasing, and the compound fertilizer factory follows up on bargain hunting. The price of melamine rose slightly, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement was good. From the perspective of supply, the power limitation in Sichuan has ended, enterprises have gradually resumed production, and the daily output of urea is about 150000 tons.

It is expected that the domestic urea market price will rise slightly in the future, with the average market price of about 2420 yuan / ton.

Region, price (yuan / ton), rise and fall (yuan / ton)

Jiangxi Province, 9900-10300, – 300

Henan, 10000-10300, – 300

Inner Mongolia, 9700-10000, – 300

Shandong, 9800-10200, – 300

Fujian, 9800-10200, – 300

On September 1, the mainstream price of domestic anhydrous hydrofluoric acid manufacturers was 9800-10200 yuan / ton, and the factory price trend of the on-site merchants declined slightly. The operating rate of domestic hydrofluoric acid manufacturers did not change much, the on-site supply was normal, and the fluorite price was slightly higher recently. However, the downstream refrigerant market remained low, the on-site procurement was not active, and the sulfuric acid price dropped sharply. In a comprehensive view, it is expected that the on-site hydrofluoric acid price will decline in the later period.

According to the data of business agency, on August 31, the average early price of silver market was 4190 yuan / kg, down 1.20% on a daily basis. Compared with the average early price of spot market at the beginning of the month (August 1), it was 4432.67 yuan / kg, down 5.47%; Compared with the average price of 4770 yuan / kg in the spot market at the beginning of the year (January 1), the decrease was 12.16%.

On August 31, the spot market price of gold was 386.89 yuan / g, down 0.74% on a daily basis, up 1.30% from the early average price of 381.93 yuan / g in the spot market at the beginning of the month (August 1); Compared with the average price of the spot market at the beginning of the year (January 1) at 372.37 yuan / kg, an increase of 3.90%.

Comparison of price trends of precious metals (gold and silver) in recent 1 year

From the long-term perspective, the price trend of precious metals tends to be similar, the long-term trend is basically the same, and the amplitude is slightly different. In August, silver fell deeply, and the gold price was relatively stable.

Price trend of precious metals and crude oil

Macro policy

1. Domestic policy

The domestic LPR was lowered, and the domestic macro policy was relatively stable.

2. International policy

The hawkish probability of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate increase in September increased, the European economy was hit hard by energy, and the manufacturing PMI index of Germany and France in August continued to be lower than the 50th percentile, which is not optimistic.

Future forecast

Hawkish remarks on US monetary policy are frequent, and the expectation of interest rate increase in September rises. The expectation of interest rate increase in Europe and the United States will suppress the recent precious metal price, and it is expected that the precious metal price will be weak in the short term.