On August 2, the price of acetic acid in East China was 3512.50 yuan / ton, unchanged from the previous working day. Last week, the acetic acid market operated weakly and stably, and the domestic market was mainly on the sidelines. At present, the downstream demand continued to be weak, the enthusiasm for entering the market was general, and the just need to follow up was mainly. The mentality of the operators was temporarily stable and on the sidelines, the enterprise quotation was stable, the on-site supply and demand were deadlocked, and the short-term acetic acid market continued to operate on the sidelines, with specific attention to market transactions.

On August 1, the average market price of TDI in East China was 15750 yuan / ton, down 0.63% from the previous working day, and the market was weak. At present, the market supply is stable, the shippers offer to negotiate shipment, the downstream wait-and-see mentality is mainly, the market purchase just needs to be followed up, the terminal industry is depressed, the operator’s mentality is cautious, and the on-site trading is mainly looking for low prices. At present, the quotation range of dealers in East China is about 15000-15200 yuan / ton for domestic goods and about 15300-15700 yuan / ton for Shanghai goods.

It is expected that the short-term TDI market consolidation will be the main operation, and the price may be reduced slightly. Specific attention will be paid to the market supply and downstream follow-up.

1、 Price data

According to the bulk list data of business agency, the price of petroleum coke from local refiners fell this week. On July 31, the average market price in Shandong was 4082.50 yuan / ton, down 3.14% from 4215.00 yuan / ton on July 25.

On July 31, the commodity index of petroleum coke was 317.53, unchanged from yesterday, down 22.31% from the highest point 408.70 in the cycle (2022-05-11), and up 374.70% from the lowest point 66.89 on March 28, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-09-30 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the price of petroleum coke in refineries fell, the refinery shipments were general, the transactions were light, and the downstream procurement was mainly on demand.

Upstream: the international crude oil price fluctuated. On the one hand, the EIA inventory data of the United States showed that the node refined oil unexpectedly surged during the peak driving season. In addition, Beixi No. 1 was restarted, and the easing of the European energy crisis brought bad news to the oil market. In addition, the European Central Bank raised interest rates, causing concerns about falling demand. It can be seen that the oil market long and short performance is quite sticky. Under the background of the global central bank raising interest rates, controlling inflation will bring downward pressure on all kinds of risky assets. On the other hand, the peak driving season in August in the United States may come to an end. According to the latest data, gasoline inventories in the United States have increased unexpectedly in the recent week, which also indicates that demand may end ahead of schedule. In addition, the repeated outbreaks in Asia and the blockade measures may bring some pressure to the oil market.

Downstream: Calcined coke prices fell this week; The market price of metallic silicon fell slightly; The price of downstream electrolytic aluminum rose. As of July 31, the price was 18633.33 yuan / ton.

Analysts of petroleum coke of business agency believe that the international crude oil fluctuated this week, and the cost support of petroleum coke is limited; At the beginning of the week, the inventory of local refining enterprises was high, the shipment of petroleum coke was under pressure, and the refinery reduced the price for shipment; In the second half of the week, the downstream procurement was active, and the prices of some refineries were callback. It is expected that the price of locally refined petroleum coke may be weak in the near future.