On the 30th, the domestic NMP market was reorganized and operated. The average price of the domestic market was stable at 23500 yuan / ton, and the market was willing to support the price. The price of bulk water of mainstream factories was around 25000-26000 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction price was mainly negotiated. The downstream just needs to purchase, the demand follow-up is general, and the NMP price rise is weak.

Upstream: BDO market is weak. At present, the support of the supply side is relatively strong, and the supplier’s intention to defend the price is mainly. However, the downstream demand performance is general. Small orders are just needed but the price is negotiated. The overall market fluctuation is limited. The BDO market in East China is operating on a wait-and-see basis. Although the support of the supply side is strengthened, the supplier’s price keeping mentality continues. However, the downstream of the terminal maintains the contract follow-up, the spot purchase is cautious, and the actual single transaction is limited.

The NMP analyst of business agency believes that the cost and price consolidation trend is general, and the downstream demand is general. It is expected that the NMP market will be dominated by consolidation and operation in the near future.

According to the nickel price monitoring of business agency, on the 29th, the average price of nickel spot market was 172100 yuan / ton, down 4.36% from the previous trading day and up 20.56% year-on-year.

Today, the nickel price fell sharply, and the next week, lunni closed down 1.09%. After US Federal Reserve Chairman Powell hinted that the US Federal Reserve would further raise interest rates to curb inflation, traders weighed the signs of slowing economic growth, and metals generally fell. Pure nickel maintains normal production schedule, and the operating rate of ferronickel hovers at a low level. However, the terminal demand is sluggish, and both iron and steel plants suffer losses. In the downstream stainless steel, the scale of production reduction has expanded. Most traders maintain a wait-and-see attitude, and most of the actual transactions are just needed purchases. The fundamentals of nickel are weak, and the expected rise in interest rate will further suppress the price. It is expected that the nickel price will fluctuate at a low level.

This week (August 19-august 26), the polybutadiene rubber market rebounded slightly. According to the monitoring of the business agency, as of August 26, the domestic CIS polybutadiene rubber price was 12580 yuan / ton, a slight increase of 0.24% over the 12550 yuan / ton last Friday. Since June, polybutadiene rubber has been falling all the way to the low level of the year in the middle of August. Then, the market was in a wait-and-see state. With the petrochemical manufacturers’ slight increase in the factory price last week, many merchants’ offers rose slightly. However, from the perspective of industrial chain fundamentals, the downstream demand is still low, and the cost remains low, and the market is still weak; This week, the ex factory price of Shunding rubber of Sinopec Sales Company was stable. As of the 26th, the ex factory price of Qilu Shunding of Sinopec North China sales company was 12400 yuan / ton.

At present, the domestic CIS polybutadiene rubber plant is operating at a high level, and the supply side is expected to continue to be loose.

This week (8.19-8.26), the butadiene market fell slightly, and the cost of butadiene rubber continued to weaken. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of August 26, the price of butadiene was 7795 yuan / ton, down 1.03% from 7876 yuan / ton last Friday.

This week, the natural rubber market fluctuated and consolidated, and the support for cis-polybutadiene rubber was not strong. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of August 26, the price of natural rubber was 12044 yuan / ton, down 0.13% from 12060 yuan / ton last Friday.

The downstream tire starts at a low level, with the half steel tire starting at around 65%, and the full steel tire starting at around 55%. The demand for rubber is weak, and the market deals are mainly small.

Future forecast: business analysts believe that the raw material butadiene is running at a low level and the natural rubber price is fluctuating at a low level; The new production of Qixiang and the restart of Maoming Petrochemical increased the supply side pressure in August. It is comprehensively expected that the price of CIS polybutadiene rubber will continue to be weak in the later period.

According to the price monitoring of business agency, on August 25, the average price of sulfur in East China was 1170.00 yuan / ton, which was the same as that of the previous working day. The market situation was on the sidelines.

The downstream sulfuric acid market continues to operate in a weak state, with limited demand for sulfur, which needs to be followed up. The shipment of sulfur refineries in Shandong Province is acceptable. According to their own shipment situation, the quotation of each manufacturer is temporarily stable, and the market situation in the port is sorted up. The domestic sulfur bidding rise is good for the port market, and the carriers are reluctant to sell their products with a wait-and-see attitude. It is expected that the domestic sulfur market will be sorted out and operated, and the price trend will be increased in a narrow range, Specific attention shall be paid to downstream follow-up.

According to the nickel price monitoring of business agency, on the 24th, the average price of nickel spot market was 176766.67 yuan / ton, down 2.78% from the previous trading day and up 22.64% year-on-year.

In August, manufacturing activity in Europe shrank, and the growth of factory activity in Japan and the United States slowed down. In July, the sales of new single family homes in the United States plummeted to a six-and-a-half-year low. At the beginning of this week, the nickel price was strengthened by the Indonesian policy news. However, due to the limited basic support, the future price continued to fall, and the domestic high temperature limit film affected the output of nickel sulfate plant. On the supply side, the arrival volume of Russian nickel increased significantly, while the terminal demand was weak, the nickel iron transaction was cold and the nickel price was under pressure. It is expected that the nickel price will remain low and fluctuate widely.

On August 23, the average price of TDI in East China was 17300 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.73% over the previous working day, and the market was up. Last week’s favorable factors were superimposed, and TDI price increased. At present, the news is quiet, the market trading atmosphere is light, the factory continues to support the market attitude, and the suppliers’ offer is temporarily stable and waiting for the just demand. The domestic downstream demand is weak, and the follow-up of the actual purchase is limited. The attitude of the operators is cautious, the supply and demand game in the market, and the future market pays attention to the downstream demand change. At present, the quotation range of dealers in East China is about 16800-17000 yuan / ton for domestic goods and about 17200-17500 yuan / ton for Shanghai goods.

It is expected that the short-term TDI market will be operated at a high level, and specific attention will be paid to market supply and downstream follow-up.

Price dynamics: on August 22, Sinopec North China: Qilu Petrochemical quoted 7500 yuan / ton, Shijiazhuang refining and chemical quoted 7500 yuan / ton, and Tianjin Petrochemical quoted 7500 yuan / ton;

East China: Yangzi Petrochemical offers 7500 yuan / ton;

South China: Hainan refining and chemical company offers 7500 yuan / ton;

Central China: Wuhan ethylene offers 7500 yuan / ton;

Others: Jingbo Petrochemical quoted 7700 yuan / ton, HSBC Petrochemical quoted 7550 yuan / ton, Weilian chemical quoted 7703 yuan / ton, and Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 7700 yuan / ton.

Analysis and comments: in terms of crude oil, the oil price rose slightly last Friday, but it recorded a weekly decline. At present, the market is still dragged by the strength of the US dollar and worries about the slowdown of fuel demand caused by the future economic recession.

Today, the pure benzene of Jingbo Petrochemical increased by 100 yuan / ton, the pure benzene of Weilian chemical increased by 50 yuan / ton, and the pure benzene of Xinhai Petrochemical increased by 50 yuan / ton.

Last week, pure benzene fell by a wide margin, which led to a slight increase in downstream purchasing sentiment; Last Friday, crude oil and Asian pure benzene rose slightly, providing support; Today, the downstream styrene price rises, and the pure benzene market is slightly stronger. Today, the domestic price of pure benzene is 7500-7700 yuan / ton.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk data list of business agency, on August 15, the reference average price of domestic 85% phosphoric acid was 7920 yuan / ton, and on August 19, the reference average price of domestic 85% phosphoric acid was 8116 yuan / ton. This week, the price of domestic 85% industrial grade phosphoric acid increased by 2.48%.

2、 Market analysis

This week, phosphoric acid prices stopped falling and rebounded. Due to the strong yellow phosphorus Market of raw materials this week, the cost support is favorable, and the phosphoric acid market price rises. In Sichuan, due to power limitation and cost rise, most manufacturers suspended quotation and order receiving. As of August 19, the factory price of 85% phosphoric acid in China was 7800-8800 yuan / ton, and the market price was 8500-9500 yuan / ton. The quotation in Sichuan is suspended. The ex factory quotation of 85% phosphoric acid in Yunnan is about 7800 yuan / T, the market quotation of 85% phosphoric acid in Hubei is about 9200 yuan / T, and the market quotation of 85% phosphoric acid in Nanjing is about 9000 yuan / T.

The raw material is phosphorus ore. This week, the domestic phosphate ore market was in a high-level consolidation operation. At present, the domestic phosphate rock supply is still tight, and the spot circulation is small. Some large phosphate rocks continue to be mainly used for their own use, while some other mining enterprises continue to receive pre-sale orders. The details are discussed in a single way according to the regional volume and other factors. For some enterprises that need to purchase phosphate ore as raw material, the continuous high price of phosphate rock and tight supply have brought certain pressure to the enterprises. On August 19, the reference price of phosphate rock was 1100 yuan / ton.

The raw material is yellow phosphorus. The market price of yellow phosphorus continued to rise this week. At present, the yellow phosphorus enterprises are obviously reluctant to sell. Now they mainly issue early orders. Most yellow phosphorus manufacturers do not offer external prices for the time being, and only one is discussed. At present, power is limited in Sichuan, and yellow phosphorus enterprises are shut down. Due to the impact of the epidemic situation in Weng’an District of Guizhou, the transportation of yellow phosphorus in some areas is limited, which is more troublesome than before. Some companies in Yunnan are overhauled, and the quotation is suspended. The quotation of yellow phosphorus manufacturers under normal operation was increased. Downstream enterprises mainly focus on just needs, and take it with them. Up to now, the mainstream price of yellow phosphorus in Guizhou is about 32000 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

According to phosphoric acid analysts of business association, the price of yellow phosphorus, the raw material, has risen strongly recently, and the cost of raw materials has increased, which is favorable to the cost side. Power is limited in Sichuan, and the on-site phosphoric acid supply is tightened. Under the favorable factors, it is expected that the market price of phosphoric acid will continue to rise in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the market price trend of domestic phthalic anhydride is rising. As of the 18th, the quotation of phthalic anhydride is 8100 yuan / ton. The spot supply in the market is normal, and the sales situation is general.

The domestic market price of phthalic anhydride has increased slightly, the delivery of phthalic anhydride in the market is general, the downstream demand has not changed much in the near future, the price of upstream adjacent benzene is stable, the plasticizer market is higher, the spot supply of phthalic anhydride in the market is normal, and the market price of phthalic anhydride is affected by the downstream. The price has increased slightly. There is little change in the operation of domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers. The operation rate of phthalic anhydride in the field is less than 60%. The spot supply of domestic phthalic anhydride is normal, the market price trend is mainly rising, and the downstream plasticizer industry is slightly rising. The actual transaction is normal. The market price of phthalic anhydride in East China has increased slightly, and the high-end transactions in the market are limited. The main negotiation price of adjacent method in East China is 8000-8200 yuan / ton, and that of naphthalene method is 7900-8000 yuan / ton; The mainstream price of the phthalic anhydride market in North China is 8100-8300 yuan / ton. The wait-and-see mentality of the phthalic anhydride market still exists, and the downstream is mainly based on demand. The recent market trend of adjacent benzene is stable, and it is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride will rise slightly in the later period.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, on August 17, the domestic methanol in East China port was 2425 yuan / ton, down 1.34% from the previous trading day and 5.55% year-on-year. On August 17, the methanol futures of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange fell narrowly. The main contract ma2209 closed at 2415 yuan / ton at the end of the trading day, down 42 yuan / ton compared with the closing of the previous trading day.

Crude oil continued to decline sharply, and methanol futures fell in tandem. In terms of spot, although some regions have reduced the negative production of methanol units, which is expected to boost the supply in a short period of time, and some production enterprises have narrowly increased the ex factory quotation of about 20-30 yuan / ton, the downstream demand continues to be sluggish, and the operating rate of the main downstream industries is generally low, so the demand for methanol procurement is maintained.

In the short term, the short-term domestic methanol market is dominated by shock and consolidation.