On the 28th, the aluminum price hit the bottom and rebounded

According to the data of business agency, on July 28, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China was 18373.33 yuan / ton, Zha% per day, 3.64% lower than the average market price of 19066.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (7.1), and 5.19% lower than the average market price of 19090 yuan / ton in the same period last year.

Fundamentals overview

On the macro level, the Fed’s expected interest rate hike fell, expectations were released, pessimism improved, and market risk appetite returned. However, the sustainability needs to be tested. After all, the expectation of interest rate hike in September still exists.

On the supply and demand side, the output continues to rise, and there is a certain pressure on the supply side. The positive news about real estate on Thursday stimulated the sharp rise in prices. On the demand side, the measures to stabilize real estate are conducive to the improvement of aluminum consumption in the real estate sector, but whether the relevant benefits can be realized and the degree of realization remains to be seen. In the absence of substantial improvement in real estate consumption, the recent cyclical destocking began to slow down. On the 28th, the domestic social inventory was 672000 tons, and the inventory accumulated slightly during the week. The overall inventory is still at a relatively low level. The London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminum inventory decreased by 4375 tons, but the pattern of strong supply and weak demand is still in place. It is comprehensively expected that the rebound of aluminum prices is limited.

At the raw material end, China’s alumina port inventory totaled 273000 tons on the 28th, an increase of 5000 tons over last week. Among them, there are 6000 tons in Lianyungang, 80000 tons in Qingdao, 87000 tons in Bayuquan, 52000 tons in Panjin, 38000 tons in Jinzhou, 10000 tons in Qinzhou, Fangcheng, Rizhao, Longkou and Caofeidian.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the domestic market price trend of phthalic anhydride was temporarily stable. As of the 27th, the quotation of phthalic anhydride was 7975 yuan / ton. The on-site spot supply was sufficient, and the marketing situation was general.

The domestic phthalic anhydride market price trend is temporarily stable, the phthalic anhydride market delivery situation is general, the recent downstream demand changes little, the upstream orthobenzene price trend is stable, the plasticizer market declines, the on-site phthalic anhydride spot supply is normal, and the phthalic anhydride market price is affected by the downstream, and the price remains low. The operating rate of domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers has not changed much. The operating rate of phthalic anhydride in the market is less than 60%. The domestic spot supply of phthalic anhydride is normal, and the market price trend is mainly falling. The downstream plasticizer industry market is declining, and the actual transaction is normal. The market price of phthalic anhydride in East China fell slightly, and the high-end transactions on the floor were limited. The mainstream of the adjacent France source negotiation in East China was 7900-8000 yuan / ton, and the mainstream of the naphthalene method source negotiation was 7800-7900 yuan / ton; The mainstream quotation of phthalic anhydride market in North China is 8100-8200 yuan / ton. The wait-and-see mentality of phthalic anhydride is still in the market, and the downstream purchase is mainly on demand. The recent trend of phthalic anhydride market is stable, and it is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride will decline slightly in the later period.

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business agency, on the 26th, the average nickel spot market price was 188100 yuan / ton, up 1.35% from the previous trading day and 28.03% year-on-year.

London nickel closed down 1.45% overnight after the Federal Reserve’s policy decision in July hit. The global economic recession affected the rebound space of nickel price, but the short-term market resources were tight, and the inventory was at the low level over the years, which supported the nickel price. In June, domestic refined nickel imports were only 9274 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 46.6%, and the overall import volume was lower than expected. The volume of intermediate projects in Indonesia has increased significantly, some domestic iron mills have lost money and reduced production, and ferronickel mills have a strong willingness to support prices.

Forecast: supported by low inventory, nickel price is strong, but the supply and demand side and product prices in various industrial chains continue to be weak, and do not have strong rebound momentum. It is expected that nickel price will mainly fluctuate at a low level in the short term.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the average price of sulfur in East China was 1506.67 yuan / ton on the 25th, down 8.13% from the previous working day. At the weekend, the market was weak. The quotation of Shandong refinery was significantly reduced, and the price of some refineries fell 300 yuan / ton.

At present, the downstream demand is weak, and the enthusiasm for entering the market is general. There are low-cost sources of goods in the market. The downstream purchase is cautious, the shipment situation of enterprises is poor, and the inventory pressure increases. In order to maintain the pace of shipment, some price enterprises quote lower on weekends, the price difference in the floor is obvious, and the market mentality is bearish. It is expected that the short-term sulfur market will continue to operate in a weak manner. Pay more attention to the downstream follow-up.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the price of mixed xylene fluctuated this week, with regional trends varying. On July 15, the price was 8230 yuan / ton; On Friday (July 22), the price was 8230 yuan / ton, unchanged from last week; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 40.44%.

2、 Analysis and comment

The trend of crude oil fluctuated during the week, and the support of external news was weak. Mixed xylene fluctuated with crude oil. Mixed xylene regional tight supply situation still exists, supporting the market price mentality.

In the external market, mixed xylene in Asia fell this week. On Thursday (July 21), the price of mixed xylene imported from South Korea was 943.5 dollars / ton, a year-on-year decrease of 20.5 dollars / ton, or 2.13%; The reference price of domestic imported mixed xylene was 940.5 dollars / ton, with a year-on-year decrease of 17.5 dollars / ton, or 1.83%.

In terms of crude oil, the market expressed doubts about Saudi Arabia’s ability to increase production, and tight supply is expected to support the rise of oil prices for three consecutive days. However, there were signs of weakening gasoline demand in the United States, which combined with the European Central Bank’s interest rate hike to suppress the economy, and oil prices fell. As of July 22, Brent’s price rose by $2.04 per barrel or 2.02% this week compared with last week; WTI fell $2.89 / barrel, or 2.96%.

Downstream, in the PX market, the domestic PX price was stable this week. On Friday (July 22), the domestic ex factory price of paraxylene was 9550 yuan / ton, which was stable compared with last week and increased by 34.51% compared with the same period last year. As of July 21, the closing price in Asia was $1030 / ton FOB South Korea and $1048 / ton CFR China.

In the ox market, the price of ox in East China fell this week. On Friday (July 22), the price of ox in East China was 8300 yuan / ton, down 3.49% from last week and up 33.87% from the same period last year.

In terms of gasoline, the price of gasoline in Shandong fell violently this week. The price was 8787 yuan / ton on July 15 and 8606 yuan / ton on July 22, down 2.06% from last week and up 8.1% from the same period last year.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

In terms of crude oil, the oil market has been stuck recently, and the expectation of oil supply shortage is still there. However, global inflation, the accelerated pace of interest rate hikes by central banks, and the increased risk of future economic recession have suppressed energy demand. Crude oil long short game, the trend is full of uncertainty. Continue to pay attention to the impact of geopolitical situation, opec+ decision on crude oil production, US crude oil and refined oil storage dynamics, global economic conditions and other factors on crude oil prices.

The trend of crude oil is full of uncertainty, and the support of external news is weakened; Under the high pressure of cost, the follow-up of downstream products of mixed xylene is blocked. If crude oil and outer disk continue to weaken, mixed xylene may continue to decline. Pay attention to the market trend of crude oil and gasoline, the impact of mixed xylene and downstream device dynamics, port inventory, external market, etc. on the price of mixed xylene.

On July 21, the mainstream quotation range of 1 × tin ingot in the domestic spot tin market was 194000-197000 yuan / ton, with an average price of 195500 yuan / ton, up 5500 yuan / ton from the previous trading day.

On the night of the 20th, the metal market closed up across the board. In recent days, the continued weakness of the US dollar index and the macro concerns about European natural gas supply boosted the stock market, and the metal market was boosted and rose across the board. Lun tin rose 2.29%, Shanghai tin rose 2.74%. On the morning of the 21st, Shanghai tin continued to be the main player in the night trend. As of the close of the 21st, the main 2208 contract of Shanghai tin closed up 2.71%.

In terms of supply, smelters stopped production for maintenance in July, and the overall output is expected to decline in July. However, the downstream demand has not changed much recently, and the overall start-up of tin solder enterprises is still low, with fewer orders. The recent trend of tin price is still disturbed by macro factors, and it is expected that tin price will remain wide and volatile under the pattern of weak supply and demand.

According to the monitoring of business news agency, the domestic nitrile rubber price was 17800 yuan / ton on the 20th, down 1.11% from the previous day. Domestic nitrile rubber started at a high load, and the supply side is relatively sufficient. The start-up of downstream insulation foaming, rubber hose and other industries was as low as 50-60%, the demand for nitrile rubber was weak, and the market transaction was light. Since July, the ex factory price of nitrile rubber enterprises has been significantly reduced, and the market quotation of nitrile rubber has gradually declined. As of July 20, the mainstream market quotation of Lanhua nitrile n41e was 16300-16900 yuan / ton; Shunze nitrile 3355 market mainstream reported 17000~17500 yuan / ton; Russian nitrile 2665 market mainstream reported 169~17500 yuan / ton, Nandi nitrile 1502 market mainstream reported 19000~20000.

 
Aftermarket forecast: the downstream start-up is low, coupled with loose supply, it is expected that the nitrile rubber market will continue to be weak in the short term.

On July 19, the average market price of TDI in East China was 17275 yuan / ton, down 0.29% from the previous working day, and the market continued to be weak. The inventory of major factories is not under pressure, the mentality of supporting the market is dominant, the downstream demand is weak, and a few just need to be followed up. Due to the repeated impact of the epidemic in some regions, the market trading atmosphere is light, the shippers give up profits to negotiate shipments, the quotation is reduced, and the mentality of the operators is partial to deadlock and wait-and-see. At present, the quotation range of dealers in East China is about 16700-17100 yuan / ton for domestic goods and 17000-17400 yuan / ton for Shanghai goods.

It is expected that the short-term TDI market will continue to be weak and the price will decline. Specific attention will be paid to market supply and downstream follow-up.

On July 18, the price of acetic acid in East China was 3712.50 yuan / ton, down 1.00% from the previous working day. At the end of last week, the quotations of some enterprises were reduced. On Monday, the domestic market was reorganized downward. At present, the downstream demand was limited, the follow-up of market entry purchase was insufficient, the on-site trading atmosphere was general, and the shipment of enterprises was poor. In order to maintain the pace of shipment, the quotations of enterprises were slightly reduced, the on-site supply was strong and the demand was weak, the mentality of the operators was stalemate, and the short-term acetic acid market waited and, Pay attention to the market transactions.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of business society, aniline finished down in a narrow range this week. On July 8, the price in Shandong was 11800-12000 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 12300-12500 yuan / ton; On July 15, the price in Shandong was 11800-12100 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 12100-12500 yuan / ton, down 0.21% from last week and up 26.05% from the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

On the cost side, pure benzene: affected by the broad decline of crude oil, the outer disk pure benzene followed the weakness, driving the domestic market to lower the focus of negotiation. During the week, the turnover in Shandong was general, and the price difference with other regions widened. Due to the reduction of domestic trade ships, the inventory of East China ports this week decreased by 8000 tons compared with last week, and the market supply was relatively tight, with a limited overall decline during the week. On Friday (July 15), the price of pure benzene was 8600-9150 yuan / ton (the average price was 9009 yuan / ton), which was 2.79% lower than last week and 5.61% higher than the same period last year.

Nitric acid: the price of domestic nitric acid fell this week. The domestic production price of nitric acid was 2917 yuan / ton on July 8 and 2833 yuan / ton on July 15. The price fell by 2.86% compared with last week and increased by 15.65% compared with the same period last year.

In the early stage, because aniline was near the cost line, the price was supported by the cost side. In addition, at the end of June, aniline plants were shut down for maintenance, the supply was reduced, and the price of aniline was strong. This week, as the operating rate rose slightly, and pure benzene fell with crude oil, aniline support weakened, and prices corrected downward in a narrow range.

3、 Aftermarket expectations

In terms of cost, pure benzene is still supported in the short term due to tight supply. If crude oil and the external market continue to fall, pure benzene may still fall.

In terms of nitric acid, due to the continued weakness of the raw material market of liquid ammonia and the flat delivery of nitric acid, the price of nitric acid is expected to decline slightly in the short term.

At present, the inventory of aniline enterprises is acceptable. A 100000 ton unit in Nanhua is shut down. The Jilin Cornell unit is expected to restart at the end of the month. The supply side support is acceptable. The downstream rigid demand is mainly expected, and the short-term narrow range consolidation of aniline is expected to be the main. If crude oil and pure benzene continue to fall, it may drive aniline to fall. Pay attention to the trend of raw materials, downstream demand and the impact of aniline plant dynamics on aniline prices.