1、 Price trend

Latest price (May 30):11280 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the data monitoring chart of business club, on May 30, the market price of phosphoric acid was 11280 yuan / ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a year-on-year increase of 92.27. At present, the price of raw material yellow phosphorus is high, the cost side is strongly supported, the overall focus of the phosphoric acid market has moved upward, the price increase range of enterprises’ offer is different, and the market transaction is tepid. At present, the price of raw yellow phosphorus is 38000-40000 yuan / ton, and the market price of thermal phosphoric acid is about 11000-12800 yuan / ton.

It is expected that the phosphoric acid market will remain stable in the short term.

Recent urea price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic urea price fell slightly this week, from 3265.00 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 3220.00 yuan / ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 1.38%, an increase of 38.00% over the same period last year. On May 27, the urea commodity index was 149.77, the same as yesterday, down 1.68% from 152.33, the highest point in the cycle (May 15, 2022), and up 169.37% from 55.60, the lowest point on August 17, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

Insufficient cost support, weak downstream demand and slightly lower urea supply

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream ex factory price of domestic urea fell slightly this week. Zhangzhou San’an urea was quoted at 3350 yuan / ton this weekend, down 150 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Shandong Ruixing urea offered 3220 yuan / ton this weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with last weekend; Hualu Hengsheng urea offered 3170 yuan / ton at the end of this week, down 35 yuan / ton compared with last weekend;

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain data, the upstream products of urea fell slightly this week as a whole: the price of liquefied natural gas fell slightly, from 6814.00 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 6640.00 yuan / ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 2.55%, an increase of 90.08% year-on-year compared with the same period last year; Coal prices have fluctuated in a narrow range recently. The price of melamine in the downstream of urea fell slightly this week, from 10175.00 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 10100.00 yuan / ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 0.74%.

In terms of demand, agricultural demand follows up on demand, while industrial demand is dominated by rigid demand. The wheat harvest is coming in the north, the agricultural demand is weakening, and some areas in the northeast and South purchase on demand. The wait-and-see atmosphere of compound fertilizer and rubber plate factories towards high priced urea is becoming stronger, the procurement slows down, the price of melamine drops slightly, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement is weakened. From the perspective of supply, the daily output of urea this week was about 150000-160000 tons, with a slight decline, and the urea inventory was at a low level.

Urea prices fell slightly in the future

In the first ten days of June, the domestic urea market fell slightly, mainly due to consolidation. Urea analysts of business agency believe that the upstream market of urea fell slightly and the cost support weakened. Agricultural demand is general, industrial demand is weakened, and downstream customers have a strong wait-and-see attitude towards high priced urea. In June, Xiaguan fertilizer is about to enter the market. The mentality of the industry is empty, and the urea market is dominated by a small shock and decline in the future.

The latest p-value price of ethylene glycol on May 26 was 4966.67 yuan / ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. Year on year decrease of 1.32%.

Ethylene glycol futures recovered their lost ground today, and the external market rose slightly in the afternoon. Recently, the negotiated price of cargo is around us $600 / ton. As of May 26, the total inventory of ethylene glycol in the main port of East China was 1184500 tons, a decrease of 2800 tons or 0.24% compared with last Thursday, an increase of 6700 tons or 0.57% compared with Monday. The port delivery volume was slow, and the inventory level remained high in the short term. The atmosphere of real orders in the market is general, and the production and sales of polyester market are light. Therefore, despite the decline of ethylene glycol operating rate, the contradiction between supply and demand still exists.

Forecast: interval shock.

Ethylene oxide remained stable, with the ex factory price of 8200 yuan / ton in East China, North China, South China and Northeast China and 8300 yuan / ton in Central China.

In terms of upstream ethylene, the external price of ethylene in Northeast Asia is US $1100 / ton, that in Southeast Asia is US $1150 / ton, that of Luxi Chemical ethylene is 8350 yuan / ton today, and that of Jinshan Lianmao ethylene is 8350 yuan / ton today. The ethylene market is weak, the RMB exchange rate is reduced, the cost support is limited, the profit space is repaired, and the overall load of ethylene oxide rebounds. Downstream demand picked up slightly, monomer offers were strong, manufacturers’ willingness to support the market was obvious, long-term recovery was still weak, and most traders shipped according to the market.

Prediction: the long short factor game is temporarily deadlocked, but if the ethylene price trend continues to weaken, the EO center of gravity may gradually move down.

Trade name: acetic acid

Latest price (May 24): 5140 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the market price trend of acetic acid rose slightly today, and the average market price in East China increased by 1.18% compared with the previous working day. The impact of the epidemic situation in Shanghai was weakened, the market trading was smooth, the enterprise inventory was not under pressure, the downstream market was mainly purchased on demand, and the market trading operated smoothly. The market learned that the 1 million ton acetic acid plant of Shandong Yankuang will be stopped for maintenance on the 25th, the market supply may be reduced, and the mentality of the field operators is optimistic, The quotation of acetic acid increased slightly.

Future forecast: the short-term acetic acid market will wait and see the consolidation and operation, and it may rise in the future. Pay attention to the market supply.

Trade name: acetic acid

Latest price (May 23): 5080 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the market price trend of acetic acid rose slightly today, and the average market price in East China increased by 0.40% compared with the previous working day. The impact of the epidemic situation in Shanghai was weakened, the market trading was smooth, the enterprise inventory was not under pressure, the downstream market was mainly purchased on demand, and the market trading operated smoothly. In addition, the market was informed that the 1 million ton acetic acid plant of Shandong Yankuang will be shut down for maintenance in the latter ten days, the market supply will be reduced, and the quotation of acetic acid may be increased.

Future forecast: the short-term acetic acid market is mainly on the sidelines, and it may rise in the future. Pay attention to the market supply.

According to the data of business agency, on May 20, the average price of P value of oil-based ethylene glycol was 5008.33 yuan / ton, which was the same as that in the previous statistical cycle.

Oil prices fell on Friday as investors worried that weak global economic growth and tighter monetary policy by the central bank might curb the recovery of fuel demand. The cost side is slightly loose, the external market price of ethylene glycol is weak, and the actual single transaction is sporadic. The recent negotiated price of shipping is around us $610 / ton.

In the downstream, the current terminal is depressed, the downstream orders are poor, and the production and sales of polyester Market in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are generally flat. At present, ethylene glycol continues to suffer losses, ethylene oxide is more economical than ethylene glycol, and the cogeneration unit tends to EO Production.

In terms of inventory, as of May 19, the total inventory of ethylene glycol in the main ports of East China was 1187300 tons, an increase of 25700 tons, an increase of 2.21%, and 36200 tons, an increase of 3.14%, compared with Monday. The inventory remained high.

Forecast: low range shock.

The latest p-value price of ethylene glycol on May 19 was 5008.33 yuan / ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. Up 0.7% year on year.

The expectation of tight global supply and the improvement of fuel demand due to Shanghai’s plan to relax restrictions overshadowed concerns about slowing economic growth, and oil prices rebounded from the decline in early trading on Thursday. Today, Meg’s external market is weak, and the recent negotiated price of cargo is around us $610 / ton. The operating rate of ethylene glycol continues to decline slightly, the operating rate of polyester in the downstream is general, and the recovery of the demand side is slow. At present, the factory still needs to purchase, which has no obvious support for the ethylene glycol market.

Forecast: interval shock.

Latest price (May 18): 17500 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the data monitoring chart of business agency, the price of refrigerant R22 was temporarily stable on May 17, unchanged from the previous day, with a year-on-year increase of 5.42%. The price of raw material chloroform fell slightly, the cost support became weaker, and the market supply increased. At the same time, the demand did not increase. Under the bad conditions of many parties, the price of R22 fell steadily. At present, the price of raw material hydrofluoric acid is mostly 11730 yuan / ton, the price of chloroform is about 4325 yuan / ton, and the market quotation of R22 is mostly in the range of 17000-18000 yuan / ton.

R22 market is expected to fall steadily.

Trade name: cryolite

Latest price (May 17): 7600 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the cryolite market is up today, and the average production price in Henan is up 0.33% from the previous working day. Cryolite raw materials are tight, the cost pressure of enterprises increases, the cryolite in the field is mainly under low load, and the market supply is tight, while the downstream demand is stable, the enterprise shipment is smooth, and the operator’s wait-and-see mentality is dominated. Individual enterprises increase their quotation according to the shipment situation.

Future forecast: short-term cryolite market consolidation at a high level, pay attention to the market supply.