On April 28, the rare earth index was 785 points, unchanged from yesterday, down 22.05% from the highest point of 1007 points in the cycle (2022-02-24), and up 189.67% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: the period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now)

The trend of domestic rare earth index is temporarily stable. The price of some domestic light rare earth praseodymium neodymium series has declined, the price of praseodymium neodymium oxide has declined by 2000 yuan / ton to 845500 yuan / ton, the price of praseodymium neodymium metal is 1035000 yuan / ton, the price of praseodymium oxide is 865000 yuan / ton, the price of neodymium oxide is 885000 yuan / ton, the price of metal praseodymium is 1185000 yuan / ton, the price of metal neodymium is 1085000 yuan / ton, the price of dysprosium oxide is 2.6 million yuan / ton, and the price of dysprosium ferroalloy is 259500 yuan / ton, The price of dysprosium metal is 3.32 million yuan / ton. Some prices in the domestic light rare earth market have declined. The recent procurement is general. The price of dysprosium in the domestic heavy rare earth market is temporarily stable, while the price of terbium is higher. The downstream procurement is mainly on demand, and Myanmar prohibits export. It is expected that the price of domestic rare earth market will remain stable in the later stage.

Commodity market: according to the monitoring of business society, Shanghai Rubber continued to fluctuate slightly on April 27, with the main closing price of 12700 yuan / ton, and the market spot market adjusted by about 50-100 yuan / ton. The average spot market price of domestic natural rubber (standard I) in East China market was 12370 yuan / ton, up 0.57% from the quotation of the previous trading day and down 6.16% year-on-year.

Industry focus: Recently, it has been difficult for Shanghai and other places to issue rubber, the circulation of raw materials and finished products in many domestic places has been blocked, the export demand has also decreased, and it is difficult to recover in the short term; The slowdown in demand has led to heavy finished product inventory of tire enterprises and great pressure to go to the warehouse. With the May Day holiday approaching, the operating rate of enterprises is expected to be reduced due to multiple effects. In terms of inventory, the process of eliminating natural rubber in Qingdao free trade zone was slow. The data showed that as of the 22nd, the rubber inventory in Qingdao was 407600 tons, a month on month increase of – 4.59%.

Aftermarket forecast: with the downward adjustment of global economic growth expectation and the multi-point divergence of domestic public health events, auto enterprises in some serious areas will stop production and the circulation system in many places will be blocked, the delivery of raw materials will be difficult, the demand for finished products will be reduced, and the downstream demand will slow down, resulting in the continuous increase of pressure on spot finished products, the start of production enterprises will be blocked, and the May Day holiday will be superimposed. It is expected that the aftermarket of natural rubber will continue to be weak and volatile.

Commodity market: according to the monitoring data of business agency, the domestic mainstream quotation of solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) polyaluminium chloride on April 26, 2022 was 2315 yuan / ton. The market has been stable temporarily in recent days, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.47%.

Key points of analysis: at present, the manufacturer’s production is normal, the spot inventory is sufficient, the public health events affect the transportation and circulation of goods, the delivery is difficult, the cost increases, the actual purchase volume is not easy to form a single, and the polyaluminium chloride market has weakened slightly recently. As for raw hydrochloric acid, the domestic hydrochloric acid market has increased slightly. The current mainstream market quotation is 310 yuan / ton, up 36.76% year-on-year. The recent market of upstream liquid chlorine has decreased slightly, the cost support is insufficient, the downstream market continues to consolidate, and the downstream purchase intention is general.

Future forecast: affected by the strict control of public health events, the problem of blocked market delivery and transportation will continue in the short term. This month, the raw material cost fluctuated and decreased. In the case of no shortage of goods and slow turnover, it is expected that the short-term polyaluminium chloride market is slightly weak, supplemented by fluctuations.

The monitoring shows that on April 25, Shanghai Rubber continued to fluctuate and decrease, with an increase over the previous days. The main force closed at 12665 yuan / ton, and the spot market adjusted downward by about 300-350 yuan / ton. The average spot market price of domestic natural rubber (standard I) in East China market was 12260 yuan / ton, down 2.54% from the quotation on the previous trading day and 8.76% year-on-year.

Industry analysis: macroscopically, domestic public health events have a wide impact, affecting the supply of raw materials, circulation and sales of finished products; Internationally, the International Monetary Fund lowered global economic growth. Supply side: according to the latest ANRPC report, the global output of natural rubber is expected to increase by 4.9% to 954000 tons in March; Among the production areas, India and Yunnan have fully opened cutting and increased production. Hainan has opened cutting at the end of April and early May, and entered the full rubber cutting period around mid May, which is expected to increase significantly. Demand side: the transportation of raw materials and finished products has been greatly affected by the recent public health events in China, and the local short-distance transportation in some provinces and cities has improved. It is reported that the operating rate of some tire enterprises in Shandong has rebounded for a short time. The data show that the operating load of all steel tires of tire enterprises in Shandong last week was 58.77%, an increase of 2.40 percentage points over the previous week and a decrease of 17.28 percentage points over the same period last year; The operating load of semi steel tire was 67.62%, down 0.99 percentage points from the previous week. Secondly, the demand for tire exports has declined. The current situation has affected the import and export trade of finished products, which is difficult to recover in the short term. Domestic shipments are blocked, and the inventory pressure of tire finished products continues to increase. According to a document issued by the Federation of passenger cars, the national passenger car market was affected by the downturn in consumption in 2022. In the first quarter, the national passenger car market retailed 4.915 million vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 4.5%, and the overall trend was lower than expected; The temporary standstill of the automobile industry chain caused by the epidemic has caused huge losses, and the impact of supply interruption of secondary parts will seriously affect the sales volume in the second quarter. Inventory: in the previous period, the inventory of Shanghai Rubber Futures in the week of 22nd increased slightly compared with the previous week, and the registered warehouse receipt decreased slightly; In Qingdao Free Trade Zone, affected by demand, the process of natural rubber inventory elimination is slow. Import and export: the data show that in March 2022, China imported 668000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), down 6% from 711000 tons in the same period in 2021. From January to March 2022, China imported 1.861 million tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), an increase of 3.9% over 1.791 million tons in the same period in 2021.

Future forecast: the expectation of global economic growth is lowered, domestic public health events are divergent at many points, China’s industrial product circulation system is blocked, raw material delivery pressure is high, car enterprises in some serious areas stop production, downstream demand slows down, the pressure of spot finished products continues to increase, the commencement of production enterprises is blocked, and the future market is expected to continue to be weak and volatile.

Summary of spot price trend of precious metals

According to the data of business agency, on April 22, the average early price of silver market was 5077 yuan / kg, down 1.49%, up 1.43% from the average early price of 5005.33 yuan / kg in the spot market at the beginning of the month (April 1); Compared with the early trading average price of 4770 yuan / kg in the spot market at the beginning of the year (January 1), an increase of 6.44%.

On April 22, the spot market price of gold was 401.62 yuan / g, up 0.90% daily, up 2.60% from the early average price of 394.96 yuan / g in the spot market at the beginning of the month (April 1); Compared with the spot market price at the beginning of the year (January 1), the early average price was 372.37 yuan / kg, an increase of 8.83%.

Comparison of price trends of precious metal gold and silver in recent 1 year

In the long-term cycle, the price trend of precious metals has a good convergence, the long-term trend is basically the same, and the amplitude is slightly different. The daily rise and fall of gold and silver deviated on April 22.

Price trend of precious metals and crude oil

List of policies

1. Domestic news

The Central Bank of China launched a 10 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation on the 24th. Because there was no reverse repurchase maturity today, it realized a net investment of 10 billion yuan on the same day. China’s seven-day repurchase interest rate rose 36 basis points to 1.9034%.

Yi Gang, governor of the central bank, said at the 2022 annual meeting of the Boao Forum for Asia on the 22nd that the people’s Bank of China handed over more than 1 trillion yuan of balance profits to the central government according to law, which is mainly used to offset tax rebates and transfer payments to local governments. The handover arrangement will move forward according to the progress of tax rebates and fiscal expenditure. The balance profit mainly comes from the profit accumulation of the people’s Bank of China in the past few years, which is equivalent to increasing the fiscal expenditure by 1% of the total GDP, reflecting the coordination and linkage of monetary policy and fiscal policy, and making joint efforts to stabilize the macro-economic market..

2. International news

The Central Bank of Paraguay raised interest rates by 50 basis points to 6.75%.

Future forecast

In the long run, the monetary easing policy is gradually ebbing, and the Fed’s expectation of raising interest rates is expected to suppress the price of precious metals. In the short term, the risk aversion of precious metals has gradually subsided, and the upward space of precious metal prices has been suppressed.

Trade name: caprolactam

Latest price: 13666 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the price of caprolactam was stable on April 21, which was flat compared with the previous trading day. Today, the transaction of raw material pure benzene improved. The price of domestic pure benzene is 8400-8550 yuan / ton, and the cost support is acceptable. The supply of caprolactam decreased due to the overhaul or planned overhaul of some caprolactam enterprises. Follow up the procurement on demand in the downstream, focusing on caution in the field. Today, the listing price of Sinopec caprolactam is 14400 yuan / ton.

Future forecast: the price of caprolactam will run smoothly in the short term.

Trade name: PC

Latest price (April 20): 22366.67 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: Recently, the domestic PC market has continued a weak trend. In the upstream, the situation in Russia and Ukraine has become increasingly tense, resulting in the closure of oil fields and the decline of supply. The news has pushed up the international crude oil price, and bisphenol A has gradually followed up. At present, the support of PC cost side is OK. However, in terms of supply, some enterprises started and resumed work in the early stage, and the supply side gradually increased. In terms of demand, at present, due to the impact of health events on East China, logistics and transportation are limited, and the demand follow-up shrinks. Most operators are bearish in the future.

Future forecast: it is expected that the PC market may be weak in the short term.

Latest price (April 19): 8980 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: on April 19, the average domestic spot price of pvc5 was 8980 yuan / ton, up 0.11% from the previous trading day and 0.76% year-on-year. The disk is weak, the futures price rises and falls back, the quotation of PVC spot market fluctuates little, the high price transaction in the market is general, and the logistics in many places is not smooth, the raw material price is reduced, and the industry’s cautious wait-and-see attitude is not reduced. Up to now, the price of raw calcium carbide is about 4050-4150 yuan / ton, and the price of PVC is 8800-9250 yuan / ton.

The PVC market is expected to be generally stable and adjusted in a narrow range.

Trade name: lithium hydroxide

Latest price (April 18): 473333.34 yuan / ton

On April 18, the market price of industrial grade lithium hydroxide fell, down 1.11% compared with the previous trading day and up 2.90% compared with March 18. At present, the price of upstream lithium carbonate has been lowered, dragging the market mentality. The enthusiasm for procurement in foreign markets is active, the enthusiasm for domestic downstream procurement is weakened, and the focus of market negotiation is weakened.

It is expected that the domestic lithium hydroxide market may be weak in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, mixed xylene fell by a wide margin this week. On April 8, the price was 7420 yuan / ton; On Friday (April 15), the price was 7140 yuan / ton, down 3.77% from last week; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 26.37%.

2、 Analysis and comment

Crude oil rose broadly this week, and the cost side boosted the mixed xylene market. However, the downstream demand for mixed xylene was weak, with sporadic transactions during the week. Under the influence of public health events, the transportation was blocked, the market mentality was bad, and the price followed the decline of the main refinery.

In the external market, driven by the rise of crude oil, mixed xylene in Asia fell first and then rose in the external market this week. On Thursday (April 14), the price of mixed xylene imported from South Korea was US $1102.5/ton, with a year-on-year increase of US $41 / ton, or 3.86%; The reference price of domestic imported mixed xylene was US $1110 / ton, with a year-on-year increase of US $39 / ton, or 3.64%.

In terms of crude oil, crude oil showed a trend of falling first and then rising this week, and the overall price rose. At the beginning of the week, the news that the International Energy Agency planned to release crude oil reserves on a large scale continued to affect the market, with European and American crude oil futures falling more than 4% in a single day. However, according to relevant news, Russian oil production decreased significantly, superimposed on the escalation of tensions between Russia and Ukraine, crude oil rebounded rapidly, rising for two consecutive days, with an increase of more than 10%. As of April 14, Brent rose $8.92 / barrel, or 8.68%; WTI rose $8.69/barrel, or 8.84%.

Downstream, in the PX market, the domestic PX price was stable this week. On Friday (April 8), the ex factory price of domestic p-xylene was 9300 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with last week and increased by 45.31% compared with the same period last year. PX prices rose slightly this week. As of the 14th, the closing prices in Asia were US $1182-1184 / T FOB Korea and US $1200-1202 / T CFR China.

In terms of ox market, the price of ox in East China stabilized this week. On Friday (April 15), the price of ox in East China was 8600 yuan / ton, flat compared with last week and up 53.57% compared with the same period last year.

In terms of gasoline, gasoline in Shandong fell continuously this week. The price was 8628 yuan / ton on April 8 and 8341.2 yuan / ton on April 15, down 3.33% from last week and up 13.14% from the same period last year. Recently, the epidemic situation in some areas rebounded, people’s travel was limited, the demand for gasoline was relatively reduced, and the on-site price fell.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, the situation in Russia and Ukraine is full of uncertainty, and the European Union may introduce a new round of sanctions against Russia, driving the rise of oil prices. However, the release of reserve plans by the United States and the International Energy Agency may curb the rise in oil prices. The short-term oil price fluctuates violently. Continue to pay attention to the geopolitical situation, the relationship between supply and demand of crude oil, OPEC + decisions on crude oil production, the inventory dynamics of US crude oil and refined oil, and the impact of global economic conditions on crude oil prices.

The cost side support remains unchanged, but under the influence of domestic public health events, logistics and transportation are blocked, downstream demand continues to be weak, the mentality of operators is mainly shipping, and there is a possibility of decline. Pay attention to the market trend of crude oil, gasoline and diesel, the dynamics of mixed xylene ports and devices, and the impact of downstream market and device dynamics on the price of mixed xylene.