Trade name: DMF

Latest price (March 16): 15500.00 yuan / ton

The price of DMF is dominated by weak operation, and the focus of negotiation is weak. Compared with the previous day, the price has fallen by 0.64%. At present, the mainstream price is about 15500 yuan / ton. At present, the manufacturer is operating at a high price, the overall market is stable and weak, and the wait-and-see atmosphere is strong. At present, there is no pressure on inventory, and the downstream just needs to purchase.

Future forecast: the DMF market is expected to be weak in the short term.

Trade name: diammonium phosphate

Latest price: 3640 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the price of diammonium phosphate was stable on March 15, which was stable compared with the previous trading day. At present, there are sufficient orders for diammonium. Raw materials operate at a high level, the cost support is good, and the market of diammonium is strong. Most enterprises suspend quotation and do not receive payment for the time being, and mainly issue early-stage orders. Today, the mainstream factory quotation of 64% diammonium in Hubei is 3600-3650 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction is negotiated.

Future forecast: diammonium phosphate will be consolidated at a high level in the short term.

Market analysis

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the ex factory tax price of 99.9% of the mainstream areas was 40666.67 yuan / ton on the 14th. Compared with Friday, the price of magnesium ingot fell by 1500 yuan per ton.

Due to the poor apparent demand, the slowdown of downstream inquiry and procurement, it is difficult for the terminal to accept the high price. Affected by the expected decline of environmental protection policies, the magnesium plant is more willing to go to the warehouse and sell at a lower price according to the market. In terms of cost, the ferrosilicon market operated steadily today. Coal prices were subject to price limit control again and special supervision actions were carried out in some coal areas. The current inventory level returned to rationality slightly, the disk level fell back, the rising momentum of coal and ferrosilicon was restrained, and the logic of magnesium ingot production cost support collapsed.

Business analysts believe that due to the demand of next month, the price of magnesium ingots may be under pressure in the short term, and the overall decline is expected to be limited.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, mixed xylene rose by a wide margin this week. On March 4, the price was 8290 yuan / ton; On Friday (March 11), the price was 8750 yuan / ton, up 5.55% from last week; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 59.09%.

2、 Analysis and comment

In the first half of the week, the international oil price continued to rise, the cost of mixed xylene rose, the downstream products rose significantly, and the mixed xylene industrial chain rose as a whole. Crude oil plummeted on Wednesday, down more than 10%, but mixed xylene just needs to be released downstream, and the superimposed cost support still exists, with a limited decline.

In the external market, the mixed xylene in the external market plunged after a wide shock this week. On Thursday (March 10), the price of mixed xylene imported from South Korea was US $1176.5/t, with a year-on-year decrease of US $2 / T, or 0.17%; The reference price of domestic imported mixed xylene was 1203 US dollars / ton, with a year-on-year increase of 6 US dollars / ton or 0.5%.

In terms of crude oil, international oil prices fluctuated sharply this week. At the beginning of the week, the tension between Russia and Ukraine escalated, the United States and European allies considered the embargo on Russian oil, the fear of supply tension intensified, crude oil continued to rise, and European and American crude oil futures rose to the highest since July 2008. On Wednesday, crude oil plunged by more than 10% due to market speculation that the United Arab Emirates and Iraq supported OPEC to further increase production. As of March 11, Brent fell $5.44 / barrel, or 4.61%; WTI fell $6.35/barrel, or 5.49%.

Downstream, in the PX market, the domestic PX price rose broadly this week. On Friday (March 11), the domestic ex factory price of p-xylene was 9500 yuan / ton, an increase of 11.76% over last week and 41.79% over the same period last year. Due to the rising downstream demand, the price trend of domestic p-xylene rose. As of the 10th, the closing price was US $1254-1256 / T FOB Korea and US $1272-1274 / T CFR China.

In terms of ox market, the price of ox in East China rose broadly this week. On Friday (March 11), the price of ox in East China was 9000 yuan / ton, up 15.38% from last week and 45.16% from the same period last year.

In terms of gasoline, gasoline prices in Shandong rose first and then fell this week. The price was 9698.6 yuan / ton on March 4 and 9976 yuan / ton on March 11, up 2.86% from last week and 41.85% from the same period last year.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, the influence of geopolitical situation still exists, but the market is concerned about whether OPEC will increase production. The trend of crude oil is full of uncertainty, and the short-term oil price fluctuates violently. Continue to pay attention to the geopolitical situation, the relationship between supply and demand of crude oil, OPEC + decisions on crude oil production, the inventory dynamics of US crude oil and refined oil, and the impact of global economic conditions on crude oil prices.

Mixed xylene and downstream industrial chain are mainly supported by the high level of crude oil, and the on-site demand maintains rigid demand. On the whole, the short-term mixed xylene will continue to fluctuate with the trend of crude oil. Pay attention to the market trend of crude oil, gasoline and diesel, the dynamics of mixed xylene ports and devices, and the impact of downstream market and device dynamics on the price of mixed xylene.

Trade name: acetic acid

Latest price (March 10): 4662 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the price of acetic acid rose strongly today, and the average market price in East China increased by 8.62% in a single day. Due to the sharp rise in the bidding price of main manufacturers in Northwest China, the market price of acetic acid rose sharply. Due to the large increase in acetic acid, the market quotation was slightly chaotic, the downstream acceptance was not high, the rationality just needed to follow up, and the market was mainly negotiated.

Future forecast: the short-term acetic acid market is in a stalemate, and the specific attention should be paid to the market supply.

Trade name: TDI

Latest price (March 9): 19500 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the average price of TDI market in East China today is the same as that of the previous working day, and the domestic TDI market will wait and see. There is little change in the start-up of TDI plants in China, the spot market is tight, and the export of terminal products is affected by the positive impact. The price support mentality of cargo holders is the main, the downstream gas buying is general, the market entry just needs to be followed up, and the TDI Market offer is temporarily stable. At present, the quotation range of dealers in East China is about 19000-19300 yuan / ton for domestic goods and about 19500 yuan / ton for Shanghai goods.

Future forecast: the TDI market will be sorted and operated at a high level in the later stage, with specific attention to market supply and downstream follow-up.

1、 Trend analysis

As shown in the figure above, copper prices fell slightly on the 8th, with the spot price of 72970 yuan / ton, down 2.73% from the previous day and up 4.35% from the beginning of the year.

U.S. stocks fell heavily, and the high level of copper fell overnight, closing down 2.69%. Although the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine have no substantive results, the logistics and transportation have been eased, the domestic demand is weak, and the imported copper has suffered a significant loss. In terms of monetary policy, it may be a foregone conclusion that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 25 basis points in March. Copper prices continued to strengthen, curbing downstream consumption, and the trend of domestic inventory base continued. It is expected that the overall short-term copper price will be weak and dominated by operation.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the average price of EVA in the domestic market was 19833.33 yuan / ton on March 4 and 20666.67 yuan / ton on March 7, with an increase of 4.20% and 15.89% compared with February 1.

On the 7th, the domestic EVA market continued to rise. The ex factory price of petrochemicals rose. With the resumption of terminal enterprises, the market demand increased. In addition, the demand for photovoltaic materials is strong, the market spot is limited, and the price is firm and rising. It is expected that the EVA market price may still rise in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the price of aniline stabilized after falling at the beginning of the week. On February 25, the price in Shandong was 13000-13200 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 13800 yuan / ton; On March 4, the price in Shandong was 12500-12700 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing was 12800 yuan / ton, down 5% from last week and up 11.11% from the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

In terms of cost, pure benzene: the demand for pure benzene is insufficient due to the loss of profits of main downstream products and the reduction of load and shutdown of some units; Shandong local refining enterprises generally take goods; Superimposed on the weak price of styrene, pure benzene weakened slightly at the beginning of the week. In the second half of the week, affected by the escalation of geopolitical tensions, crude oil soared and the external market rose, driving the domestic pure benzene market to rise. On Friday (March 4), the price of pure benzene was 8400-8550 yuan / ton (the average price was 8460 yuan / ton), and the average price increased by 520 yuan / ton or 6.55% compared with last week; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 26.84%.

Nitric acid: the price of nitric acid stabilized after rising this week. On Friday (March 4), the domestic production price of nitric acid was 2216.67 yuan / ton, up 0.76% from last week and 11.77% from the same period last year. Nitric acid is delivered normally this week, and the delivery is better.

At the beginning of the week, the cost side maintained a weak trend, superimposed on the weak downstream demand for aniline, the mentality of the industry turned to shipment, and the price fell. In the second half of the week, affected by crude oil, the price of pure benzene rebounded broadly and the cost support rose strongly. However, the downstream profit space of aniline is insufficient, the follow-up of aniline is weak, the delivery of aniline is general, the factory inventory is accumulated, and the price rise is blocked. In terms of supply, Jinling and Jinmao units stopped this week, Tianji operated at half load, and the supply in the North decreased more; Most contracts are executed in East China, and the spot delivery is limited.

3、 Future expectations

In terms of cost and pure benzene, at present, pure benzene is mainly driven by cost, and the demand side is insufficient. If crude oil continues to rise, pure benzene may rise; If crude oil falls, pure benzene may fall rapidly. In terms of nitric acid, the supporting kinetic energy of raw liquid ammonia is insufficient, and the price of nitric acid is expected to continue to be dominated by weak operation.

The spot supply of aniline is relatively small, the cost support is OK, but the downstream demand is weak. Overall, aniline continues to consolidate in the short term. Continue to pay attention to the trend of raw materials, downstream demand and the impact of the dynamics of aniline plant on the price of aniline.

Trade name: acetic acid

Latest price (March 3): 4252 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: today’s acetic acid price is temporarily stable, the average market price in East China is flat compared with yesterday, and the market situation stops falling and stabilizes. At present, the operating rate of acetic acid industry is high, the market supply is sufficient, the downstream demand is gradually restored, the market trading is weak, and the shipment of enterprises is mainly on the sidelines.

Future forecast: the short-term acetic acid market will be sorted and operated, and the specific attention will be paid to the market supply.