1、 Price trend

According to the data of business agency, on February 25, the average price of P value of oil-based ethylene glycol was 5133.33 yuan / ton, down 41.67 yuan / ton compared with the previous statistical cycle.

According to incomplete statistics, between February 24 and March 2, the total expected arrival of major terminals in East China is about 182500 tons, down from the previous statistical cycle.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

In terms of units: Zhejiang Petrochemical is expected to reduce production by 15 ~ 20% next month, with a total of about 30000 tons.

Ethylene glycol rose and fell this month, and the profit margin remained low. Ethylene glycol market this month is mainly affected by crude oil disturbance. Affected by the tense situation in Russia and Ukraine, the upstream crude oil market is worried that the outbreak of war in Europe may disrupt the global energy supply. Brent and US WTI oil prices once hit an intraday high of more than US $100 / barrel, with strong cost support. However, the ethylene glycol market is still dragged down by oversupply, the port inventory is still high, and the oversupply situation will continue in March. Today afternoon, the center of gravity of ethylene glycol outer plate fell, and the recent cargo negotiation was $665 / ton. From the demand side, it will take time for the downstream to improve. At present, the terminal digestion is not strong and the improvement is limited in a short time.

3、 Forecast: low and wide range shocks, and attention should be paid to the improvement of demand and the impact on the crude oil market.

Data monitoring shows that on February 24, the mainstream price of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cation, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in China’s domestic market reported about 17157.14 yuan / ton, slightly increased by 0.17% compared with the range on the 16th, and the price has been stable so far.

Key point analysis: at present, the production of enterprises has entered a normal state and the market inventory is sufficient; The downstream demand is general and the transaction is weak; The inventory situation of the enterprise is different, and the price is adjusted slightly according to the inventory situation. The upstream raw material acrylonitrile has been steadily and slightly increased by about 50 or 100 yuan / ton this week. At present, the average price in the domestic market is about 11150 yuan / ton; On the 24th, the price of raw acrylic acid was slightly reduced by less than 100 yuan / ton. Recently, the market price of raw acrylic acid has increased, the cost support has improved, the plant operating load is not high, the downstream is mainly purchased on demand, and the market purchase and sales are orderly.

Future forecast: since this week, the price of raw materials has decreased slightly, with sufficient spot inventory in the superimposed market, and the downstream demand has not increased on a large scale. It is expected that the mainstream market in the future will be stable and slightly weak.

Market analysis

According to the data monitoring of business agency, 99.9% of the factory price including tax in mainstream areas was 44666.67 yuan / ton on the 23rd, up 2.68% on the previous trading day, and the quotation of magnesium price was strong.

The recent magnesium price can be described as rising and falling. At present, the magnesium ingot Market is full of variables. Today, some magnesium factory traders said to suspend quotation and ship with them, and watch the future trend and environmental protection policies. Today, the price rise of magnesium ingots began to slow down, and the downstream procurement demand also slowed down. It was difficult for downstream users to accept high price resources. There were few low price resources in the market, and the upstream and downstream were in a stalemate, which hindered the upward movement of magnesium prices.

Business analysts believe that magnesium ingot prices are expected to be high in the short term, focusing on demand follow-up and environmental protection progress.

Trade name: acetic acid

Latest price (February 22): 4692 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: today, the price of acetic acid has been greatly reduced, the average market price in East China has decreased by 2.66% in a single day, and the price of acetic acid in domestic areas has been greatly reduced, with a decline range of about 350-400 yuan / ton, so the market situation is obviously weak. At present, the operating rate of acetic acid is high, the operation of enterprises is stable, the market supply is sufficient, the downstream demand continues to be weak, mainly digesting the early orders, the atmosphere of new orders in the market is light, the inventory of acetic acid enterprises is accumulated, and under the oversupply, the carriers compete passively, and the shipping quotation is reduced.

Future forecast: the short-term acetic acid market will continue to be weak, and the specific attention will be paid to the market supply.

Trade name: acetic acid

Latest price (February 21): 4820 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: today, the price of acetic acid has been greatly reduced. The average market price in East China has decreased by 3.60% in a single day. The price of acetic acid in domestic areas has been generally reduced by about 200-400 yuan / ton. The market is weak. At present, the operating rate of acetic acid is high, the operation of enterprises is stable, the market supply is sufficient, and the downstream demand is weak. It is mainly to digest the early orders. The atmosphere for the transaction of new orders in the market is light, the inventory of acetic acid enterprises is accumulated, and the shipping quotation is reduced due to the passive competition of cargo holders.

Future forecast: the short-term acetic acid market will continue to be weak, and the specific attention will be paid to the market supply.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, mixed xylene rose in shock this week. On February 11, the price was 7140 yuan / ton; On Friday (February 18), the price was 7270 yuan / ton, up 1.82% from last week; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 55.67%.

2、 Analysis and comment

In the first half of the week, crude oil continued to rise, the price rose broadly, the terminal gasoline industry followed, and mixed xylene rose significantly. In the second half of the week, the crude oil fluctuated widely and the support of p-mixed xylene weakened; In addition, due to the weakness of downstream receiving, the price of mixed xylene was difficult to maintain and the price fell.

In the external market, the mixed xylene in the external market fell sharply this week. On Thursday (February 17), the price of mixed xylene imported from South Korea was 932.5 US dollars / ton, down 29 US dollars / ton or 3.02% from February 10; The reference price of domestic imported mixed xylene was 958 US dollars / ton, down 22 US dollars / ton or 2.24% from February 10.

In terms of crude oil, in the early stage, due to the escalation of tensions in Russia and Ukraine, the market was worried that the crude oil supply might be affected, and the international oil price rose continuously and broadly. However, there is still uncertainty about the situation in Russia and Ukraine, new progress has been made in Iran’s nuclear negotiations, crude oil demand is still improving, uncertainty about the trend of crude oil is increasing, long and short are intertwined, and oil prices fluctuate widely. As of February 18, Brent fell 0.9 USD / barrel, or 0.95%; WTI fell $2.03/barrel, or 2.18%.

Downstream, in the PX market, the domestic PX price stabilized this week. On Friday (February 18), the domestic ex factory price of p-xylene was 8000 yuan / ton, unchanged from last week and increased by 40.35% compared with the same period last year. As of February 17, the closing prices in Asia were US $1035-1037 / T FOB Korea and US $1053-1055 / T CFR China.

In terms of ox market, the price of ox in East China remained stable this week. On Friday (February 18), the price of ox in East China was 7800 yuan / ton, flat compared with last week and up 56% compared with the same period last year.

In terms of gasoline, gasoline prices in Shandong rose first and then fell this week. The price was 9035.2 yuan / ton on February 11 and 9176.8 yuan / ton on February 18, up 1.57% from last week and 50% from the same period last year.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, positive: tight crude oil supply is still the main theme, and the situation in Russia and Ukraine is still uncertain; Bearish: Iran’s nuclear negotiations have made new progress. The uncertainty of crude oil trend has increased. Continue to pay attention to the relationship between crude oil supply and demand, geopolitical impact, global epidemic, OPEC + decision on crude oil production, the inventory dynamics of US crude oil and refined oil, and the impact of global economic conditions on crude oil prices.

The uncertainty of crude oil trend has increased in the near future; The terminal gasoline price callback and the follow-up of mixed xylene weakened; In addition, mixed xylene shipments successively arrived in Hong Kong, and the supply increased in the later stage. Overall, the downward pressure of mixed xylene increased. Pay attention to mixed xylene port and device dynamics, downstream market and device dynamics, as well as the impact of crude oil, external market and other trends on mixed xylene prices.

Trade name: natural rubber (scrwf)

Latest price (2-17): 13260 yuan / ton

Data monitoring shows that on February 17, Shanghai Rubber continued to decline slightly, with a range of about 250 yuan / ton, and the spot price was adjusted with the offer. Data show that in January 2022, Vietnam exported 65000 tons of natural rubber, basically the same as last year. In terms of varieties, the export of standard glue was 39000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 2.6%; Cigarette glue decreased by 25% year-on-year; Latex increased by 11.1% year-on-year. Natural rubber exported 10000 tons to China, a year-on-year decrease of 16.7%. At present, the spot price of natural rubber in major domestic regions has been reduced by about 250 yuan / ton: Yunnan Baodao / Guangken whole milk quoted 13250 yuan / ton in 20 years, Yunnan Baodao quoted 13150 yuan / ton in 19 years, Jinfeng whole milk quoted 13200 yuan / ton in 19 years, Yunxiang whole milk quoted 13250 yuan / ton in 19 years, Baodao whole milk quoted 13050 yuan / ton in 18 years, and Vietnam 3L rubber quoted 13150 yuan / ton, In 20 years, Thailand’s No. 3 Lianyi cigarette glue was quoted at about 16100 yuan / ton, in 19 years, the domestic standard two glue was quoted at about 13000 yuan / ton, and Vietnam’s No. 10 glue was quoted at 12700 yuan / ton.

Future forecast: just after the Spring Festival holiday, the downstream is gradually started, and some rubber tire factories start late to suppress the rubber price. It is predicted that the future natural rubber market will continue to fluctuate and be weak.

Trade name: acetic acid

Latest price (February 16): 5346 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the price of acetic acid continued to decline today, and the average market price in East China decreased by 1.55% compared with the previous working day. The domestic market is weak, the acetic acid enterprises are operating stably, the downstream demand is general, the market transaction atmosphere is light, the inventory of acetic acid enterprises is accumulated, the market supply is sufficient, the quotation of goods holders is reduced, the competition for shipment is dominated, and the acetic acid market is weak.

Future forecast: the short-term acetic acid market will continue to be weak, with specific attention to the market supply.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of business society, spot nickel fell slightly on the 15th. The spot price of nickel was reported at 176400 yuan / ton, down 0.75% from the previous trading day and up 14.27% from the beginning of the year.

The rise of the US dollar Limited metal prices, and Lun nickel fell overnight to close down 0.04%. The escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine led to the interruption of aluminum and nickel supply, with rising concerns and dominated by market wait-and-see sentiment. At present, the tight nickel supply trend remains. The strong development of new energy vehicles drives the stable growth of the demand for nickel for batteries. In addition, LME inventory continues to go, the premium remains high, and the market is expected to squeeze positions. It is expected that the short-term shock trend of nickel price will mainly run.

After the Spring Festival, Shandong civil gas market showed a trend of rising first and then falling, and the overall decline was greater than the increase. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of liquefied gas in Shandong civil market was 5540.00 yuan / ton on February 6 and 5460.00 yuan / ton on February 14, with a decline of 1.44% during the week and an increase of 53.80% compared with the same period last year.

As of February 14, the mainstream prices of liquefied gas in various regions of China are as follows:

region Mainstream quotation

North China 5110-5750 yuan / ton

East China 5500-5750 yuan / ton

Northeast China 5680-5930 yuan / ton

Shandong region 5400-5900 yuan / ton

In the first week after the Spring Festival, Shandong civil gas showed a trend of rising first and then falling. At present, the price has fallen to about 5500 yuan / ton. During the holidays, due to the rise of international crude oil, the price has been adjusted one after another. However, due to the relatively high price and limited downstream acceptance capacity, with the end of replenishment, the mentality is cautious and mainly delisting. The market trading atmosphere was significantly weaker than that in the early stage, the manufacturer’s shipment was blocked, and the price was corrected in the later part of the week.

After the festival, the LPG futures market rose first and then fell, bringing phased support to the spot market. On February 14, the opening price of LPG futures contract 2203 was 5001, the highest price was 5447, the lowest price was 4938, the closing price was 5030, the former settlement price was 5076, the settlement price was 5083, down 46, or 0.91%, the trading volume was 259432, the position was 53028, and the daily position was increased by – 1088. (quotation unit: yuan / ton)

At present, boosted by the sharp rise in international crude oil prices, the decline in Shandong civil gas market has narrowed. With the decline in prices, the downstream mentality has improved, and the market trading atmosphere has warmed up. In addition, the weather has cooled recently, and there are still expectations of improvement in terminal demand. It is expected that Shandong civil gas prices will be strong in the short term.