According to statistics, the price of domestic fluorite rose slightly this week. By the end of the week, the average price of domestic fluorite was 2861.11 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.59% over the price of 2844.44 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and a year-on-year increase of 9.34%.

The price trend of fluorite rose slightly this week. Recently, the manufacturers reported that the order situation of fluorite was ok, the installation commencement of merchants in the venue declined, the supply of fluorite in the venue was slightly tight, and the price trend in the venue rose. With the decrease of temperature, some fluorite manufacturers installed parking devices, the operation of mines and flotation in the yard declined, the delivery of goods in the fluorite yard was ok, and the market price of fluorite increased slightly. This week, the market price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream fell sharply, and the downstream terminal mainly purchased on demand. By the end of the week, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia was 2600-2700 yuan / ton, the mainstream of 97 fluorite wet powder negotiation in Fujian was 2750-2900 yuan / ton, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan was 2750-2900 yuan / ton, and the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi was 2750-2950 yuan / ton, Recently, domestic fluorite prices have increased slightly.

The market price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream of fluorite has fallen sharply. As of the weekend, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid was 12720 yuan / ton. The sharp decline in the market price of hydrofluoric acid has a certain negative impact on the upstream fluorite market, and the price increase of fluorite is small. The price trend of domestic downstream refrigerant products has fallen sharply, the operating rate of the refrigerant industry in the field has remained low, and the sales of the automobile industry have been normal recently, but the quota of refrigerant manufacturers is insufficient, the refrigerant market continues to fall, the demand is mainly based on demand, and the refrigerant industry market is low. As a whole, the refrigerant market is mainly sharply lower, and the price of chloroform is lower, which makes the cost of the refrigerant industry drop. At present, the price trend of refrigerant R22 is declining. The start-up of major refrigerant mainstream manufacturers is still not high, and the market supply is normal, but the demand is not improved. The demand in R22 market application field is reduced, and enterprises reduce prices for sales. The price of mainstream manufacturers has a downward trend. Up to now, the market price of R22 is in the range of 20000-23000 yuan / ton. The price trend of R134a in China declined, the price of trichloroethylene remained, the cost was under pressure, the phenomenon of closing and stopping the report of R134a increased, the market price fell, and the trading focus fell. At present, the market quotation of R134a is in the range of 35000-41000 yuan / ton, the high price transaction is weak, the market sentiment is poor, the enterprise’s eagerness to ship is obvious, the actual transaction is more profitable, the downstream refrigerant market continues to decline, and the fluorite price rises slightly due to tight supply.

On the whole, the market of the downstream refrigerant industry continues to decline. Recently, the supply of hydrofluoric acid market is normal, and the price of hydrofluoric acid has fallen sharply, but the supply of fluorite in the field has declined. Chen Ling, an analyst of business society, believes that the market price of fluorite still has good support in the short term, and the market price trend remains stable.

Data monitoring shows that the long and short index of natural rubber on November 30 was 58.3, down – 41.7% from the highest point of 100.0 in the cycle (2020-10-27), and up 721.1% from the lowest point of 7.1 on June 19, 2013. (Note: the period refers to the period from November 1, 2012 to now)

Figure 2: mainstream price trend of natural rubber in November 2021

Data monitoring shows that in November, China’s natural rubber market showed a trend of first down, then up and down: the mainstream quotation of domestic standard 1 spot rubber in East China market was 13583.33 yuan / ton on the 1st and 13560 yuan / ton on the 30th, slightly down by 0.17%; However, the monthly price fluctuated greatly this month. The highest point of the monthly price was 14360 yuan / ton on the 25th and the lowest point was 13060 yuan / ton on the 4th, with a maximum increase of 9.95% in the month.

Figure 3: comparison chart of natural rubber market in November 2021

The factors affecting the market this month are:

1. Macro: since November, crude oil prices have fallen sharply. WTI crude oil fell by 18.45% and Brent crude oil fell by 14.49%; The crude oil analyst of business society believes that in the short term, the impact of the new virus will continue to ferment, the epidemic in Europe will become more and more intense, and the oil price will be in an empty atmosphere, but it is unlikely that the oil price will continue to fall sharply. At present, the market focus is mainly on the OPEC + meeting to be held. Overall, oil prices may fluctuate weakly in the near future, and the possibility of continued bottoming cannot be ruled out.

2. Supply side: production area: Southeast Asia is affected by bad weather and frequent rainfall, which affects the local rubber cutting and raw rubber supply. For example, Thai media reported on November 26 that Thailand continues to issue flood warning in the South; As the northeast monsoon is strong and water vapor continues to be brought from the Gulf of Thailand, there is a fear of heavy rainfall in southern Thailand until 30 days ago. Eight governments such as Chunpeng must pay attention to the flood caused by accumulated precipitation; Secondly, a new type of deciduous disease broke out in rubber trees in Thailand. According to Thai media reports on November 29, jessada, director of Thai Rubber Research Institute, revealed that a new type of deciduous disease broke out in rubber trees in jianzhuwen and Dalat provinces in eastern Thailand, with a sick rubber forest area of more than 100 Lai. China’s rubber production areas in Yunnan began to stop cutting one after another, and Hainan stopped cutting at the end of the year. Affected by the cold wave weather, the cutting stop date may come ahead of schedule. In general, the significant reduction of domestic and foreign supply has significantly supported the rubber price. Output data: the October report recently released by ANRPC predicts that the global natural rubber output will increase by 1.8% year-on-year to 13.836 million tons in 2021. Among them, Thailand decreased by 3.9%, Indonesia increased by 2.8%, China increased by 22.9%, India increased by 15.3%, Vietnam slightly increased by 0.3% and Malaysia increased by 3%. In October, the global output of natural rubber is expected to drop by 0.6% to 1331000 tons. Among them, Thailand decreased by 2.4%, Indonesia increased by 4.7%, Vietnam decreased by 1.7% and Malaysia increased by 20.1%.

3. Downstream: operating rate data: the data show that as of November 25, the operating load of all steel tires of tire enterprises in Shandong was 66.00%, an increase of 0.37 percentage points over last week, a decrease of 9.35 percentage points over the same period last year and 2.06 percentage points over the same period in 2019. The operating load of semi steel tire was 62.25%, an increase of 1.07 percentage points over last week, a decrease of 9.04 percentage points over the same period last year and 6.56 percentage points over the same period in 2019. Consumption data: according to the October report recently released by ANRPC, the global consumption of natural rubber is expected to increase by 8.3% year-on-year to 14.028 million tons in 2021. Among them, China increased by 5.4%, India increased by 14.4%, Thailand decreased by 4.6% and Malaysia decreased by 2.4%. In October, the global consumption of natural rubber is expected to decline by 3.7% to 1141000 tons. Among them, China decreased by 9.3%, India by 23.1%, Thailand by 9.5% and Malaysia by 7.2%. Tire data: according to the latest data released by the National Bureau of statistics, China’s rubber tire output in October was 73.071 million, a year-on-year decrease of 5.9%. From January to October, the output of rubber tire casing increased by 13.8% over the same period of the previous year to 73845.2 million. Auto data: on November 24, according to the data of China passenger Federation, the overall retail sales of narrow passenger car market in the third week of November reached 49000 vehicles per day, a year-on-year decrease of 12%, and the performance was relatively improved, a decrease of 6% compared with the third week of October this year. Due to the obvious improvement of production in October, the retail recovery in November should be obvious, but the current recovery speed is still not fast, which is similar to that in 2019, and it is also a good performance.

4. In terms of inventory: the warehouse receipts increased significantly in the previous period. Statistics show that as of November 26, Tianjiao warehouse receipts were 1404700 tons, an increase of 12300 tons on a weekly basis. The total inventory of the exchange was 188350 tons, an increase of 8827 tons on a weekly basis; The No. 20 rubber warehouse receipt was 41671 tons, an increase of 91 tons. The total inventory of the exchange was 5259200 tons, an increase of 2006 tons on a weekly basis. The inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone continued to go to the warehouse. Due to the poor shipping, most of the orders delayed in the early stage did not arrive at the port as scheduled; As the start-up of the tire factory has picked up, the inventory has increased.

5. Import and export: China: in October, China exported 342300 tons of all steel tires, 10.33% month on month, 0.32% year on year. From January to October, China exported 3.0714 million tons, 12.05% year on year; In October, the half steel tire was 182400 tons, with a month on month ratio of – 5.6% and a year-on-year ratio of – 1.3%. From January to October, the cumulative export was 1905500 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year ratio of 19.45%. Thailand: in the first 10 months of 2021, Thailand exported 2.778 million tons of natural rubber (excluding composite rubber), a year-on-year increase of 30%, and 3.762 million tons of natural rubber and mixed rubber, a year-on-year increase of 7%; The total export to China was 1.975 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7%.

6. Policy: India: according to foreign media reports on November 26, once the price difference of fresh latex is 2 rupees per kilogram higher than that of rss4, the rubber board of India will provide subsidies to rubber farmers according to the price difference. The Bureau has taken measures to strengthen film production to fill the shortage in the domestic market. Thailand: according to the news from Thailand on November 24, Zhu Lin, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Commerce of Thailand, stressed that we should continue to promote the third year income security plan to help farmers, fight back against the claim that the prices of all crops have fallen, and pointed out that the price of cup glue (DRC 50%) is higher than the guaranteed price.

7. Tire price increase: under the comprehensive influence of environmental protection, power restriction, rising raw material prices and other factors, tire manufacturers at home and abroad have issued tire price increase notices, such as Zhongce Rubber, Linglong tire, Zhengxin tire, Fengshen tire, Qingdao Shuangxing, Qingdao Jianxin united, Zhongda & Haoyu rubber, Hubei outlets, Pu linchengshan, GM, etc.

Future forecast: natural disasters have occurred frequently in Southeast Asia recently, and it is reported that La Nina will reach the peak from the end of next month to January 2022. Another report said that a new type of Defoliation Disease broke out in the rubber forests of Tsim Chuk Mun and Dalat Prefecture in Thailand, affecting the rubber cutting rate in many ways; At the same time, China’s domestic rubber began to stop cutting, and the natural rubber supply side played a supporting role in the market; The latest data show that the demand of downstream tire manufacturers has rebounded slightly; Rubber producing countries such as India provide subsidies to rubber farmers; Several tire manufacturers issued price increase notices; In addition, the epidemic, especially Omicron, has a great impact on the world. The terminal market is depressed and the freight industry is depressed. To sum up, various factors not only support the rubber trend, but also the overall impact of macro factors this month and the sharp weakening of crude oil and coal on bulk commodities. It is expected that natural rubber will maintain the range shock trend, and the continuous weakening risk caused by recent external system risks will not be ruled out in the short term.

Price trend in November

According to the bulk list data of business society, the market price of cryolite continued to rise in November. The average market price at the end of the month was 7200 yuan / ton, an increase of 2.86% over the price of 7000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 22.09% year-on-year.

Analysis of industrial chain in the month

In November, the domestic cryolite market continued to be strong, the raw materials were still tight, the production cost of cryolite enterprises increased, the production capacity decreased, the inventory decreased, and the demand shipment was OK. The external quotation of cryolite enterprises operated at a high level, and the market rose slightly. As of the 30th, the ex factory price of cryolite in Henan was 6500-8600 yuan / ton, up 400 yuan / ton month on month; The ex factory price in Shandong was raised by 400 yuan / ton simultaneously, and the quotation was about 7600 yuan / ton. The actual transaction price was mainly negotiated.

Upstream, the domestic soda ash market continued to decline. On November 30, the average price of soda ash was 3387.50 yuan / ton, a decrease of 7.19% compared with the price of 3650.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. With the increase of soda ash inventory and downstream on-demand procurement, the market digests the previous increase in the month, and the soda ash price continues to decline. However, due to the large increase in the previous price, the current soda ash market price is still high.

The downstream aluminum price continued to fluctuate in November. On November 30, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China market was 18876.67 yuan / ton, down 6.66% from the average price of 20223.33 yuan / ton on November 1. Aluminum social inventory is high, downstream demand is general, and consumption is slow. Affected by building materials, aluminum prices fluctuate frequently during the month, and the overall market is weak.

Future forecast

At present, there is a shortage of raw materials in the upstream of domestic cryolite, the production cost of enterprises continues to be high, the cryolite market continues to be strong, and the downstream demand is OK. The quotation of cryolite enterprises is mainly high, and there is no possibility of short-term price reduction. It is expected that the cryolite market will be stable in the later stage.

In November, the domestic Shunding market fell first and then rose, and the price rose at the end of the month compared with the beginning of the month. According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber was 14820 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, then fell to the lowest point of 13990 yuan / ton in the month, rebounded to 16120 yuan / ton at the end of the month, and increased by 8.77% at the end of the month compared with the beginning of the month.

In mid and early November, the domestic CIS polybutadiene rubber market was weak and the price fell. Later, with the arrival of heavy snow in early winter, the transportation of some varieties was difficult, the market circulation supply was tight, and the factory prices of manufacturers increased one after another, so the market offer rose sharply. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of November 30, the ex factory price of Daqing Shunding of PetroChina Northeast sales company was reported as 15400 yuan / ton; Market traders’ offers followed suit.

List of commencement of polybutadiene rubber in November.

According to the business agency, in November, Yantai Haopu Shunding plant was shut down and Lande Shunding plant was upgraded to two-line operation. At the end of the month, Yanshan Petrochemical rare earth Shunding plant was converted to BR9000. Generally speaking, the operating rate of Shunding rubber industry in November decreased slightly compared with the previous period.

Butadiene, the raw material, fell sharply in November, dragging down butadiene rubber on the cost side. According to the monitoring of business society, as of November 30, the price of butadiene was 6486 yuan / ton, down 18.83% from 7991 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

In November, the natural rubber market fluctuated and consolidated. At the beginning of the month, the price was 13583 yuan / ton, the low point in the month was 13060 yuan / ton, and the high point in the month was 14360 yuan / ton. At the end of the month, the price fell to 13560, down 0.17% from the beginning of the month.

Future forecast: according to the analysts of business society, it can be seen from the price comparison chart of butadiene butadiene butadiene rubber and natural rubber butadiene rubber that the current price trend of butadiene rubber deviates greatly from that of butadiene and that of natural rubber. From the perspective of cost and substitutability, the impact on butadiene rubber is relatively empty. In addition, the start-up of domestic butadiene rubber plants has not decreased significantly, It is expected that the price trend of CIS polybutadiene rubber may fall in the later stage.