1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business society, on the 15th, the spot nickel price fell slightly, with a quotation of 147250 yuan / ton, a slight decrease of 0.6% compared with the previous trading day, an increase of 14.92% compared with the beginning of the year and a year-on-year increase of 22.15%. Shanghai nickel opened at 146080 yuan. After opening, Shanghai nickel opened higher and went lower, showing a weak performance, closing at 144800 yuan at the lowest and 145000 yuan at the end, down 0.92%. Today, the nickel trend of LME3 fell back from its high in January, closing at US $19705 at the deadline, down 1.15%.

At present, the situation of power and production restriction in China still exists, but most areas have eased, and the output of stainless steel plants has gradually increased. In the downstream, at present, it has entered the traditional off-season, the demand is relatively weak, and most of them are mainly purchased on demand. Sea freight dropped sharply, and the price of nickel ore was under pressure. Nickel is expected to remain weak in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, aniline stabilized after a wide decline this week. On November 5, the price in Shandong was 14000-14260 yuan / ton, and the price of aniline in Nanjing was 14500 yuan / ton; On November 12, the price of aniline in Shandong was 13500-13780 yuan / ton, and that in Nanjing was 14000-14500 yuan / ton. The price decreased by 3.53% compared with last week, increased by 73% at the beginning of the year, and increased by 106.03% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and review

In terms of cost, pure benzene fell this week due to the weakening of crude oil and styrene. Planned overhaul of Fujian United Petrochemical Unit within the week, and expected reduction of pure benzene supply; New production capacity is planned to be put into operation in the downstream, with good support from the supply and demand side and small decline in the week. This week, the price of Sinopec pure benzene remained stable at 8300-8400 yuan / ton. On Friday (November 12), the price of pure benzene was 7450-7650 yuan / ton (the average price was 7570 yuan / ton), and the average price decreased by 30 yuan / ton or 0.39% compared with last week; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 91.16%.

Nitric acid fell continuously and broadly this week. On Friday (November 12), the production price of nitric acid in East China was 3000 yuan / ton, down 8.72% from last week and up 85.57% from the same period last year.

Both raw materials fell, and the cost support of aniline weakened; Downstream resistance to high priced aniline increased, follow-up weakened, and the high price of aniline corrected. During the week, the market cautiously watched the downstream pick-up sentiment and stabilized after falling.

3、 Future expectations

In terms of cost, crude oil is expected to fluctuate on the cost side, and the guidance for pure benzene is weak; The trend of downstream styrene is weak, but there are plans to put new production capacity into operation, and the demand for pure benzene is expected to increase in the later stage. The supply and demand side pays attention to the dynamics of large units in East China and the dynamics of new units in the downstream. Overall, it is expected that pure benzene will continue to fluctuate weakly next week.

At present, the market is cautiously watching the downstream purchasing sentiment. Dongying Huatai and Shandong Jinmao aniline plants are restarted, and Jinling plant is planned to be overhauled, which may affect the trend of aniline. Continue to pay attention to the trend of raw material, downstream demand and the dynamics of aniline plant.

Trade name: natural rubber (standard I)

Latest price: 13220 yuan / ton on November 11

Market analysis: according to the data monitoring of business agency (100ppi. Com), Shanghai glue continued to fluctuate slightly on November 11, with an increase of about 50-100 yuan / ton, and the spot glue basically adjusted with the market. In the current winter, the weather conditions affect the rubber production, especially the domestic rubber, which is about to stop cutting one after another; The arrival volume of China’s imported rubber has not increased significantly this month; The production and sales of automobile enterprises have improved to a certain extent, and the shortage of chips cannot be completely solved for the time being; Raw material prices are at a high level. Environmental protection, power and production restriction have a significant impact on tire enterprises. Ningxia Shenzhou tire and other enterprises continue to raise tire ex factory prices this month.

Industry data: according to the Malaysian Bureau of statistics on November 11, the export volume of natural rubber in September 2021 increased by 27.9% year-on-year to 62332 tons, with a month on month increase of 5.3%; In September, the import volume was 81190 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 32.1% and a month on month increase of 1.9%; In September, the total output of natural rubber that can be monitored was 41180 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 10.8% and a month on month decrease of 4.1%; In September, the natural rubber inventory was 292271 tons, with a month on month increase of 2% and a year-on-year increase of 14.6%; In September, the total domestic consumption of natural rubber decreased by 9.1% year-on-year to 41469 tons, an increase of 6.2% month on month.

Future forecast: it is expected that natural rubber will mainly fluctuate before cutting in domestic production areas.

At present, the mainstream price of ethylene oxide in the market is 9100 yuan / ton. The supply side is gradually relaxed, and the production and sales are temporarily stable.

In terms of upstream ethylene, the purchase sentiment was weakened, and the downstream PE pricing trend was bearish, resulting in the decline of ethylene price. Up to now, the external price of ethylene in Northeast Asia is 1160 US dollars / ton; The external price of ethylene in Southeast Asia is 1072 US dollars / ton; The quotation of domestic Jinshan Lianmao ethylene today is 8500 yuan / ton, which is 300 yuan / ton lower than that of the previous trading day.

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In the downstream, the terminal demand remained low and the purchase enthusiasm was not strong. However, under the pressure from the demand side, the monomer price continued to fall. The manufacturer’s shipment is poor, the dealers panic and sell out, and the actual transaction price in the market has fallen below 9500 yuan.

Market rumors say that prices will continue to decline tomorrow, waiting for the guidance of the latest market news.

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the domestic PTA market continued to pick up slightly today (November 9). The average price in the spot market was 5031 yuan / ton, up 0.16% from the previous day and 61.31% year-on-year. PTA futures 2201 closed at 5078, up 28, or 0.55%.

In terms of units, Hengli Dalian 2.2 million tons began maintenance for about 20 days on November 5, Honggang Petrochemical’s 1.5 million tons unit is planned to restart in mid November, Baihong 2.5 million tons unit is planned to start maintenance for three weeks on December 1, and Ineos 1.1 million tons unit is planned to be repaired for two weeks at the end of December. At present, the operating rate of the industry is maintained at more than 79%.

The global economy continues to recover to support energy demand, and the supply performance is insufficient. The international crude oil price still runs at a high level. On November 8, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $81.93/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $83.43/barrel.

The polyester Market in the downstream Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions is flat, the market wait-and-see mood is obvious, and some factories have procurement actions. There are not many new orders, and the early order production is maintained, and the industrial operating rate is reduced to less than 80%. From the aspects of texturing and weaving, the policy power restriction in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has been relaxed month on month, and the operating rate will moderately rise by more than 65%, but it is still difficult to return to the previous high.

Business analysts believe that although the current wait-and-see atmosphere of downstream factories has increased and the procurement enthusiasm is not high, PTA spot is sufficient. However, boosted by the favorable cost side, the maintenance expectation of PTA device and the impact of weather on northern port logistics, the short-term PTA price will maintain a narrow rise.

Summary of spot price trend of precious metals

According to the data of business agency, the average price of silver market in early trading on November 8 was 4902 yuan / kg, up 0.62% from the average price of 4872 yuan / kg on the 5th; Compared with the early average price of 4585 yuan / kg in the spot market in early October (October 1), an increase of 6.91%; Compared with the beginning of the year (01.01), the spot price of silver was 5550 yuan / kg, a decrease of 11.68%.

On November 8, the spot market price of gold was 375.02 yuan / g, an increase of 1.22% over yesterday’s spot market price of 370.51 yuan / g, an increase of 3.19% over the early average price of 380.20 yuan / g in the spot market in early October (10.1); Compared with the spot price of gold at the beginning of the year (01.01), 392.70 yuan / g, down 4.50%.

Comparison of precious metal gold and silver price trends in recent 3 months

The convergence of precious metal gold and silver is good. At the end of September, the price of silver decreased rapidly. After the return of the national day, the price of silver hit the bottom and rebounded. The fluctuation amplitude of silver price is large, the price trend of gold and silver tends to be narrow, and the recent price fluctuation of silver is relatively stable.

Policy message

The US non farm employment data on Friday was better than expected, the current inflation data was not significantly higher than expected, and the expectation of interest rate hike was not strongly improved.

Although in terms of news, at present, the market has expectations for the tightening policies that central banks may introduce to control high inflation, on the whole, the policy is relatively stable.

List of precious metals related data in October

1. List of domestic production data of physical silver

According to the data, in October 2021, China’s 1# silver output was 1218.387 tons (including 1058.127 tons of mineral silver), 1# silver output increased by 4.27% month on month, and the overall output increased slightly. In October, China’s 1# silver output increased by 4.27% month on month.

2. Global gold ETF positions moved down in October

In October, the total position of global gold ETF decreased by 25.5 tons; Among them, the net outflow from North America is 14.7 tons, the net outflow from Europe is 12.3 tons, the net inflow from Asia is 1.3 tons, and the net inflow from other regions is 0.2 tons.

Global gold ETF holdings fell to 3567 tons in October, the lowest level so far this year.

Future forecast

In the near future, the Federal Reserve may gradually withdraw from the loose monetary policy. In addition, there are many uncontrollable factors in the epidemic, and there is no emergency. The unilateral trend of precious metal gold and silver prices is uncertain. Recently, the price of precious metals has been stable and volatile. In the near future, we can pay due attention to Wednesday’s key consumer price index of the United States

Trade name: yellow phosphorus

Latest price November 4: 36666.67 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: on November 4, the price focus of domestic yellow phosphorus market was downward. The overall market is relatively cold, and there is a strong wait-and-see mood in the downstream. The downstream purchases yellow phosphorus at a low price, and the transaction price is mostly close to the low end. With the increase of electricity prices in various regions, many manufacturers support prices and traders wait and see. It is expected that the price of yellow phosphorus may stabilize in the short term

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the domestic PTA market fell today (November 3). The average price in the spot market was 5057 yuan / ton, down 2.09% from the previous day and up 55.49% year-on-year. The main force of PTA futures 2201 closed at 5088 and settled at 5152, down 134, or 2.57%.

In terms of supply and demand, Sichuan energy investment 1 million tons and Hengli Petrochemical 2.2 million tons of units have been overhauled successively, and the industrial starting load is around 82. However, at present, PTA stock is sufficient, and there is not much device maintenance before the end of the year.

On November 2, the international oil price closed slightly lower. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $83.91/barrel, down US $0.14, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $84.72/barrel, up US $0.01. The market is waiting for the outcome of the meeting of the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies on Thursday. In addition, the rise of US commercial crude oil inventories is expected to heat up and curb the upward pace of oil prices.

At present, the power restriction of the industrial chain is relaxed, and the operating rate of the downstream polyester plant has slightly rebounded to more than 80%. However, due to the impact of terminal demand, it is still difficult for the operating rate to return to the previous high.

Business analysts believe that the current pattern of crude oil supply and demand is good, and the cost side still has good support. However, the wait-and-see atmosphere of downstream factories is aggravated, and the purchase enthusiasm is not high, which aggravates the speed of PTA inventory accumulation. Therefore, in the short term, PTA price shock is likely to weaken slightly.

The latest p value price of ethylene glycol on November 2 was 5900 yuan / ton.

In terms of units, the 400000 T / a ethylene glycol unit of Fulian refinery is planned to be shut down for maintenance in November 6, and it is expected to be shut down for 30-35 days; The 500000 T / a ethylene glycol unit of Fude energy was originally planned to be shut down for maintenance in early November. At present, the planned shutdown time has been delayed; A 300000 t / a syngas to ethylene glycol unit in Anhui was originally planned to start in October. Considering the benefit factors, its start-up plan is further postponed, and the specific time is to be determined.

In the afternoon, MEG was dominated by external consolidation, the downward trend of coal price at the cost side continued, the commencement of ethylene glycol fell slightly, the commencement of polyester and loom at the downstream increased, the inventory of ethylene glycol at the port accumulated for two consecutive weeks, there was no significant fluctuation in arrival expectation, and the import increment was slow.

Forecast: maintain a wide range of shocks.

Trade name: urea

Latest price (November 1): 2792.00 yuan / ton

On November 1, the domestic urea market price fell, down 258 yuan / ton compared with October 29, down 8.46%, and up 57.15% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. Upstream coal prices have fallen sharply recently and cost support has weakened. From the perspective of demand: the peak of agricultural demand has passed, sporadic fertilizer supplement in some areas, industrial demand is just the main demand, the demand for urea in downstream compound fertilizer and rubber plate plants is general, the operating load rate of melamine enterprises remains at a high level, and most of them follow up with the appropriate amount. In terms of supply, urea enters the centralized maintenance period, and the supply decreases. On the whole, the urea cost support is weakened, the downstream demand is weakened, and the urea supply is insufficient.

In the future, it is expected that the domestic urea market price may decline slightly: the average price quoted by the manufacturer is about 2700 yuan / ton.