1、 Price trend

According to commodity data monitoring, the price of Yunnan Guizhou yellow phosphorus rose. The average price of yellow phosphorus was 30000 yuan / ton last Tuesday and 44000 yuan / ton this Tuesday. The price rose by 46.67% on the 7th.

2、 Market analysis

Recently, according to an online document, Yunnan development and Reform Commission issued the notice of Yunnan energy conservation leading group office on resolutely doing a good job in the work related to dual control of energy consumption, which mentioned that the production control of yellow phosphorus industry should be strengthened to ensure that the average monthly output of yellow phosphorus production line from September to December 2021 should not exceed 10% of the output in August 2021 (i.e. 90% reduction). Affected by this news, the downstream began to purchase yellow phosphorus at a high price. At present, the shortage of yellow phosphorus spot has intensified, and the price of yellow phosphorus has risen sharply again.

Up to now, most of Yunnan yellow phosphorus have suspended external quotation; The quotation in Sichuan is about 45000 yuan / ton; The mainstream quotation in Guizhou is about 43000 yuan / ton. Yunnan Enterprises Limited power and reduced consumption, Guizhou limited power and reduced production, yellow phosphorus manufacturers mainly issued early orders, the spot supply was tight, and some manufacturers temporarily stopped making external quotations.

In terms of raw materials, the market price of phosphorus ore is mainly high. The average price of phosphorus ore was 626.67 yuan / ton last Tuesday and 643.33 yuan / ton this Tuesday. The price rose by 2.66% on the 7th. The overall supply of phosphorus ore market is tight and the operating rate is low. The site continues to supply orders from old customers.

In terms of coke, in view of the current situation of coal coke steel market, since 0:00 on September 15, many coking enterprises in Shandong have started the eleventh round of raising 200 yuan / ton. After the rise, the ex factory price including tax shall be subject to a dry shutdown of 4540-4590 yuan / ton. Up to now, the quotation of secondary metallurgical coke in Panzhihua coke market is 4070 yuan / ton.

In terms of phosphoric acid, the market generally increased. The average price of phosphoric acid was 7816.67 yuan / ton last Tuesday and 9400 yuan / ton this Tuesday. The price rose by 20.26% during the week, and the downstream procurement is still cautious. At present, the price of raw materials is rising and supported by costs. It is expected that the phosphoric acid market may continue to rise in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

According to the yellow phosphorus analyst of the chemical branch of business society, the market price of yellow phosphorus rose this week, the voltage load of yellow phosphorus enterprises was limited, the production capacity was reduced, and the spot tension was intensified. The price of upstream phosphorus ore and coke increased, and the price of downstream phosphoric acid increased all the way. The downstream began to purchase yellow phosphorus at a high price. The acceptance of high price yellow phosphorus was high. On the whole, the market confidence was good and the upstream and downstream support was strong. It is expected that the market price of yellow phosphorus will continue to rise in the short term.

According to the commodity index system of business society, the commodity index of natural rubber (standard 1) on September 12 was 31.35, up 0.29 points from yesterday, down 68.65% from the highest point of 100.00 points in the cycle (2011-09-01), and up 11.37% from the lowest point of 28.15 points on November 25, 2015. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

Figure 2: mainstream price trend of natural rubber in recent January 2021

Figure 3: Weekly K-line chart of mainstream price of natural rubber in the second week of September 2021

Data monitoring shows that during the week from September 6 to 12, 2021, the price of domestic natural rubber continued to fluctuate and decreased slightly. It was reported as 12685 yuan / ton on Monday and 12396.5 yuan / ton on Friday, a decrease of about 2.27%. There was a slight shock at the beginning of the week. In the middle of the week, tire enterprises stopped work to reduce production and weak demand led to a sharp drop in the market. There was a slight rebound at the weekend, but the range was very small. The highest price of the week was 12685 yuan / ton on the 6th.

From the perspective of new rubber output: at present, the new rubber in the main natural rubber production area is in the peak production season, affected by the epidemic situation, rainfall, high shipping freight, and the delayed export of Vietnamese natural rubber, the rubber import volume is not high. Thailand’s forecast shows that 37 provinces will be affected by tropical typhoon tonsen starting on the 12th, of which the Northeast will be the most affected. We should pay attention to the impact of flash floods and floods; In addition, there is heavy rainfall in many places in September, so it is necessary to pay attention to the occurrence of floods.

From the downstream demand: first, from the situation of China’s tire manufacturers, some tire manufacturers stopped production in a centralized manner, and the tire operating rate fell more than expected. The data statistics show that in the week of September 6, the operating rate of semi steel tire sample manufacturers was 47.70%, down 10.35% month on month and 22.60% year-on-year; The operating rate of all steel tire sample manufacturers was 48.91%, down 8.07% month on month and 25.95% year-on-year. On August 26, the central ecological and environmental protection supervision team was stationed in Jilin, Shandong, Hubei, Guangdong and Sichuan provinces, which is expected to end on September 26. It is reported that some enterprises say that agents have some replenishment needs, but the actual inventory pressure is transferred to terminal sales. The double festival is coming, the finished product inventory is high, and the sales pressure is increasing. Secondly, from the automobile data, on September 10, the latest production and sales data of China Automobile Association showed that in August 2021, China’s automobile production and sales continued to decline, and the year-on-year decline was larger than that of the previous month. Among them, the production and sales of passenger cars in August were 1.497 million and 1.552 million, the output decreased by 3.3% month on month, the sales volume was flat, and the production and sales decreased by 11.9% and 11.7% respectively year on year; In August, the production and sales of commercial vehicles were 229000 and 247000, with a month on month decrease of 27.5% and 20.9%, and a year-on-year decrease of 46.2% and 42.8%. In August, the decline in production and sales continued to expand, mainly affected by the domestic epidemic and the epidemic in Malaysia. The increase in supply chain risk further increased the pressure on production reduction. In addition, the fluctuation in production and sales was also related to the high base in the same period last year. Although the shortage of chips has significantly affected the enterprise’s production plan, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles still show a slight increase compared with the data of the same period in 2019. China Automobile Association pointed out that at present, the demand in the terminal market remains stable, mainly due to the insufficient supply of automobile products.

In terms of inventory, the stock of natural rubber in the previous period was 232180 tons (+ 6826 tons) as of September 12, the quantity of futures warehouse receipts was 198470 tons (+ 5990 tons), and the domestic delivery inventory increased; In the previous period, the energy inventory of No. 20 rubber futures warehouse receipt was 42150 tons, an increase of 2526 tons. China’s natural rubber inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone continues to decline, and the spot of dark rubber is relatively strong.

In terms of import and export: Rubber: China: according to the data released by the General Administration of Customs on September 7, China imported 529000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) in August 2021, down 24.3% from 699000 tons in the same period in 2020. From January to August 2021, China imported 4.348 million tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), down 3.5% from 4.508 million tons in the same period in 2020. Vietnam: from January to August, Vietnam exported 1.129 million tons of natural rubber and mixed rubber, a year-on-year increase of 23% over last year’s 920000 tons; A total of 741000 tons were exported to China, an increase of 7.5% over last year’s 689000 tons. Indonesia: the total export of natural rubber and mixed rubber in 1-8 months was 1.585 million tons, a slight increase of 0.8% year-on-year; A total of 131000 tons were exported to China, a year-on-year decrease of 62%. Tire: affected by the global epidemic and the continuous rise of freight, the shipping problem will continue to affect China’s tire export.

Industry hot spots: Yang Yiping, deputy director of international cooperation and Business Development Department of Shanghai International Energy Trading Center (INE), said on Wednesday (September 8) that he hoped to launch freight index futures contracts this year, Reuters reported. In view of the tension faced by the global supply chain, the Shanghai Futures Exchange said in May that its company ine is studying and developing open products, such as freight index futures. Yang Yiping said: “after the first delivery of low sulfur fuel oil to Singapore in January 2021, we hope to develop more products traded on ine.” at present, foreign companies and investors have limited opportunities to enter China’s broad commodity market. At present, China’s open contracts include crude oil, iron ore, No. 20 rubber, low sulfur fuel oil and bonded copper. However, China has been trying to have global commodity pricing power and gradually open more commodity derivative contracts to overseas participants for trading.

According to the analysis of business society, from a macro perspective, the original oil price stabilizes, a variety of chemicals start a new round of upward, and natural rubber, as a futures commodity, will also be affected in the future. From the perspective of industrial chain, the supply side is affected by the weather brought by typhoon; On the demand side, downstream tire enterprises are undergoing ring inspection, the operating rate is falling, the inventory pressure is transmitted downward, and the traditional peak season effect of “golden nine silver ten” needs to be considered in terms of consumer demand. From the current influencing factors, the impact of supply side weather and environmental protection inspection on the operating rate of tire enterprises is the most prominent, and it is expected that the short-term price will continue to fluctuate.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, aniline fell continuously this week. On September 3, the price of aniline in Shandong was 10700-10900 yuan / ton and that in Nanjing was 11100-11200 yuan / ton; On September 10, the price of aniline in Shandong was 10100-10300 yuan / ton, and that in Nanjing was 10400-10600 yuan / ton, down 5.52% from last week, up 29.96% at the beginning of the year and 131.58% from the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and review

In terms of cost, in the early stage, the arrival of some ships was delayed, the port inventory was low, and the shipment of local refining enterprises was ok, so the price of pure benzene fluctuated and rose. It was reported in the middle of the week that a large styrene plant downstream was planned to be overhauled in October. The supply of styrene was expected to tighten, and the price rose sharply, driving the rise of pure benzene. This week, Sinopec raised the price of pure benzene to 8000 yuan / ton. On Sunday (September 12), the price of pure benzene was 7950-8400 yuan / ton (the average price was 8080 yuan / ton), an increase of 380 yuan / ton or 4.94% over last week; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 136.95%.

The price of nitric acid fell this week. On Friday (September 10), the production price of nitric acid in East China was 3000 yuan / ton, down 0.99% from last week and up 100% from the same period last year.

Affected by environmental protection policies, the operating rate of the downstream in the North decreased and the demand for aniline decreased; Most aniline units overhauled in the early stage were restarted, the operating rate increased, and the on-site supply increased. Under the pressure of bad supply and demand, aniline fell continuously during the week, but the rising atmosphere in the raw material market was warm and gave some bottom support. At present, aniline is still above the 10000 mark.

3、 Future expectations

In terms of cost, the speculation in the pure benzene market driven by styrene is relatively short, the crude oil guidance is weak, and there is no major change in the fundamentals in the short term. Overall, it is expected that the trend of pure benzene will stabilize next week, and there may be a slight decline.

The short-term rising power of the cost side remains, and the support for the bottom of aniline is good. It is expected that the trend of aniline will stabilize next week. Entering the “golden nine silver ten”, the downstream operating rate may pick up and the demand is expected to be better. Continue to pay attention to the trend of raw material, downstream demand and the dynamics of aniline plant.

In the second week of September, the overall domestic propane market still increased, and Shandong continued the rising route, with the overall focus moving upward. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of propane in Shandong market was 5015.75 yuan / ton on September 5 and 5108.25 yuan / ton on September 9, with an increase of 1.84% during the week, an increase of 2.51% compared with September 1.

As of September 9, the mainstream prices of propane in different regions in China are as follows:

region Specifications September 9th

East China Propane,% (V / V) not less than 95 4950-5050 yuan / ton

North China Propane,% (V / V) not less than 95 5050-5150 yuan / ton

Shandong region Propane,% (V / V) not less than 95 5050-5220 yuan / ton

South China Propane,% (V / V) not less than 95 5080-5200 yuan / ton

In the second week of September, the domestic propane market continued to rise as a whole, and the propane Market in Shandong continued to rise within the week, but the range was general. In September, CP prices were introduced, and both propylene and butane increased, which brought some support to the market. The international crude oil market fell first and then rose during the week, bringing periodic benefits to the market. Individual manufacturers in Shandong temporarily parked, and the market supply decreased. In terms of demand, the weather has cooled down, and the terminal demand has increased to a certain extent. At present, most manufacturers’ inventory is at a low level and their mentality is relatively strong. Downstream buy up do not buy down mentality into the market actively, prices continue to rise. At present, the north and South markets are dominated by growth, and the growth of the north market is relatively conservative than that of the south market.

Saudi Aramco announced in September that both propylene and butane rose. Propane was 665 USD / T, an increase of 5 USD / t over the previous month; Butane is 665 USD / T, an increase of 10 USD / T compared with the previous month.

On the whole, the current rebound of international crude oil has brought some support to the market. In September, the traditional peak season has entered, the terminal demand has improved, the downstream mentality is good, the market entry is positive, the manufacturer’s mentality is firm under the low inventory level, and the price has increased. At present, there are many positive factors in the market. It is expected that the propane market will still rise in the short term. Specifically, we still need to pay attention to the changes of international crude oil.

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the current price of domestic PTA continued to weaken significantly today (September 8). The average price of spot market was 4756 yuan / ton, a single day decrease of 2.93%, a year-on-year increase of 32.44%. The main futures 2201 closed at 4768, a decrease of 148, a decrease of 3.01%.

Recently, due to the restart of multiple sets of PTA units, the pressure on the accumulation pattern has increased, and the market mentality has weakened. Today, the short side of futures is strong. Meanwhile, the international oil price fell slightly, the domestic PX inventory was high, and the cost side support was weak. The polyester Market in downstream Jiangsu and Zhejiang is weak, the industry starts to maintain around 84%, and the buying enthusiasm is insufficient. Under the superposition of multiple bad news, the price fell significantly today.

Business analysts believe that the current PTA market is mainly dragged down by supply and demand, lack of market confidence, and short-term prices will maintain a downward trend.

Commodity index: on September 5, the polyacrylamide commodity index was 90.73, unchanged from yesterday, down 15.31% from the highest point 107.13 in the cycle (2019-05-08), and up 9.46% from the lowest point 82.89 on August 2, 2020（ Note: period refers to 2019-04-01 to now)

The data show that the domestic mainstream price of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cation, molecular weight of 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in China was 14750 yuan / ton on August 30 and 14850 yuan / ton on September 5, with a weekly increase of 0.68%.

Upstream raw materials:

Acrylic acid is one of the raw materials used in the production of anionic and non-ionic polyacrylamide. Data monitoring shows that acrylic acid was quoted at 15266.67 yuan / ton on Monday and 14833.33 yuan / ton on Friday, with a weekly decrease of 2.84%.

The price of acrylonitrile, another main raw material of polyacrylamide, has been stable recently. The weekly quotation is about 14900 yuan / ton, which has a stable impact on polyacrylamide this week.

LNG is used in the production process. Last week, the domestic mainstream price of LNG rose first and then fell. On August 30, the average price of domestic LNG was 5910 yuan / ton, and on September 5, the mainstream price was 6062.67 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 1.97%. The quotation from September 1 to 2 is 6110 yuan / ton, the lowest point is 5910 yuan / ton on August 30, and the maximum amplitude is 3.38%.

Downstream demand: at present, the epidemic situation in the water treatment industry and the price of raw materials have changed slightly, and the demand adjustment range is not large. The downstream purchase price is normal, and the demand tends to be stable.

Future forecast: according to the analysis of business society, the water treatment industry looks forward to the upcoming traditional consumption peak season “golden nine silver ten” to boost demand; But at present, it is more likely that the future market will be stable.

According to the monitoring data of business society, the performance of hydrogen peroxide has been relatively stable since September, and a downward trend has been ushered in this week. On September 1, the average price of hydrogen peroxide market was 846 yuan / ton, and on September 6, the average price of hydrogen peroxide market was 836 yuan / ton, down 1.18%.

Terminal demand is weak, and hydrogen peroxide enters the downward channel

In the week from August 30 to September 3, the quotation of hydrogen peroxide manufacturers was stable, the market continued to be 846 yuan / ton, and the rise was stable. This week, due to the end paper industry, caprolactam manufacturers finished preparing goods, and the purchase demand turned weak, hydrogen peroxide opened a downward market, with a one-day decline of 1.18%. The quotation of water enterprises in Anhui increased slightly; The quotation of hydrogen peroxide manufacturers in Shandong decreased by 40 yuan / ton; The quotation of hydrogen peroxide manufacturers in Hebei is relatively stable.

On September 6, the price comparison index of hydrogen peroxide and corrugated paper was 111.11, down 1.31 points from yesterday, down 54.83% from the highest point 246.00 in the cycle (October 21, 2019), and up 3.32% from the lowest point 107.54 on January 29, 2019（ Note: period refers to 2017-01-01 to now)

Corrugated base paper: with the end of Dongguan Jiulong base paper price preference and the impact of the reduction of waste paper price at the beginning of the week, the corrugated paper price has a slight downward trend. At present, due to the weak terminal demand, the strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the market, the slow shipment of dealers, the shortage of orders and the overall lack of market trading confidence, the price is in a state of stable and narrow fluctuation. From September 1 to 6, the price of corrugated paper fell by 0.79%, which dragged down the hydrogen peroxide Market to a certain extent, resulting in the decline of hydrogen peroxide Market.

Business community hydrogen peroxide analyst Li Bing believes that: the end of the terminal stock market, hydrogen peroxide has entered a weak adjustment period, and the future market will still be dominated by oscillation.

1、 Price trend

Taking the rutile titanium dioxide produced by sulfuric acid process with a large amount of goods in the domestic market as an example, according to the monitoring of bulk commodity data, the titanium dioxide market was basically stable this week. The average price of titanium dioxide in China is 21066.67 yuan / ton.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the domestic titanium dioxide market was basically stable. Up to now, the factory quotation including tax of rutile titanium dioxide in China is 19000-21600 yuan / ton; The ex factory quotation of anatase titanium dioxide including tax is between 17500-19000 yuan / ton. Recently, large factories have closed orders, Sichuan Environmental Protection Inspection and power rationing, and some manufacturers in Shandong have planned maintenance. The inventory of anatase titanium dioxide is low and the supply is tight. After entering Jinjiu, the demand for titanium dioxide is good, and the market price of titanium dioxide is expected to run upward.

According to the customs data, in July 2021, China’s titanium dioxide export was about 87500 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 10.32% and a month on month decrease of 13.03%; From January to July 2021, the cumulative export volume was about 728000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 11.55%, and the cumulative export volume increased by 75400 tons from January to July 2020.

In July 2021, China imported about 17500 tons of titanium dioxide, an increase of 19.60% year-on-year and 7.04% month on month; The cumulative import from January to July was about 114800 tons, a year-on-year increase of 24.57%, and the import volume from January to July 2020 increased by about 22600 tons.

In terms of titanium concentrate, the price of titanium concentrate in Panxi increased this week. Affected by environmental protection, the spot supply of titanium ore in Yunnan is tight and the manufacturer’s inventory is low. Affected by the epidemic, the supply of imported titanium ore also continued to be tight, and small and medium-sized miners were reluctant to sell titanium ore. At present, the quotation excluding tax of 38 grade titanium ore is 1550-1650 yuan / ton, that of 46 grade 10 titanium ore is 2380-2450 yuan / ton, and that of 47 grade 20 ore is 2500-2550 yuan / ton.

According to the customs data, in July 2021, China imported 250700 tons of titanium ore, with a year-on-year increase of 15.95% and a month on month decrease of 29.99%; From January to July 2021, the cumulative import of titanium ore was about 2229900 tons, with a year-on-year increase of about 27.48%, and a year-on-year increase of about 480100 tons from January to July 2020.

In terms of sulfuric acid, according to the bulk list data of business society, the price of sulfuric acid has been temporarily stable this week. So far, the average price of sulfuric acid in Shandong is 785 yuan / ton. In the short term, the upstream sulfur market has increased slightly recently, some sulfuric acid manufacturers have insufficient operation, the load is reduced, the downstream formic acid market is gradually rising, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm is good. Stable operation of sulfuric acid

3、 Future forecast

The titanium dioxide analyst of business society believes that the current titanium dioxide market quotation is strong, the domestic demand is good, and the downstream purchases on demand. Internationally, the demand for foreign trade is acceptable and there is no pressure in the short term. On the whole, the price of raw titanium concentrate increased, the price of sulfuric acid was temporarily stable, and the cost support was strong. It is expected that the price of titanium dioxide will be strong and upward in the short term, and the actual transaction price will be mainly discussed.

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the current price of domestic PTA continued to weaken slightly on September 2. The average price of spot market was 4821 yuan / ton, a one-day decrease of 1.83% and a year-on-year increase of 33.52%. The main futures 2201 closed at 4832, a decrease of 80 and a decrease of 1.63%.

In terms of unit, the 1.2 million ton PTA unit of Sinopec was originally planned to be restarted in early September, but now it is planned to be restarted for one week. The operating rate of the industry remains above 80%. At present, PTA has accumulated inventory and sufficient supply. The production and sales of polyester in the downstream are flat, and the start-up remains near 82%. There is no sign of start-up in the peak season of the terminal. The market mentality is cautious, and the demand for PTA is not strong, mainly small order transactions. Superimposed on the shock decline of crude oil, PTA cost support also weakened.

Business analysts believe that the current PTA market supply slightly exceeds demand, which suppresses the price. It is expected that the short-term market will continue to decline.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the current price of domestic PTA weakened slightly on September 1, and the average price in the spot market was 4911 yuan / ton, a one-day decrease of 0.3% and a year-on-year increase of 36.43%. The main futures 2201 closed at 4932, down 36, or 0.72%.

With the gradual restart of some units in PTA plant in late August, the cumulative pattern of PTA supply and demand is gradually emerging. The restart of Zhongtai chemical’s 1.2 million ton PTA unit is delayed, and the maintenance of Honggang Petrochemical’s 2.4 million ton unit is planned next week, or the cumulative inventory rate of PTA in September will be suspended. In terms of demand, although it is close to the golden nine silver ten peak season, the follow-up of new orders in the terminal textile market is slow. Therefore, the downstream polyester factory has few replenishments and the market transaction is light.

Business analysts believe that the supply and demand situation has weakened, which has suppressed the market, and PTA prices are expected to maintain a volatile downward trend.