At present, the price of ethylene oxide is basically the same throughout the country. Except for central China, the ex factory price is 8200 yuan / ton and 8300 yuan / ton in Central China. The quotation of satellite Petrochemical is 8200 yuan / ton. During the shutdown and maintenance of Sanjiang silbang, Lianhong is in low load production, and no external quotation is available for the time being.

Upstream, ethylene prices showed a continuous upward trend this month. In the first ten days, GS Caltex, Gulei and other cracking units were shut down for maintenance. The Asian market was in short supply, and the supply and demand side was the dominant factor. The ethylene price deviated from the price trend of upstream crude oil and naphtha for a short time. Although the prices of upstream crude oil and naphtha weakened, the ethylene price in Asia still showed a rapid upward trend. In the later stage, the crude oil price continued to strengthen, further pushing up the ethylene price under the influence of dual factors.

In terms of ethylene oxide, it is obvious from the weekly k-column chart that the increase of ethylene oxide this month mainly occurred in the middle and late ten days. Due to the light terminal demand in the early stage, downstream manufacturers mostly hold a wait-and-see attitude towards ethylene oxide. Under the supply-demand game, the sharp rise of ethylene price has not fully supported the follow-up of ethylene oxide and downstream prices. Around the middle of the year, under the strong influence of the policy factors of “dual control” of energy consumption and power restriction, in addition to Sanjiang, which originally planned to overhaul the device, many manufacturers stepped on the “emergency brake” on the EO device to reduce the load for production or parking. Due to the shortage of goods and the continuous rise of raw material prices, the rising momentum of ethylene oxide has been released under the influence of the collective soaring prices in the chemical industry. The market is bound to have a certain impact on the downstream mentality in the short term. Under the situation of imbalance between supply and demand, the market transaction price is even much higher than the ex factory price.

The rise of ethylene oxide price has brought great pulling force, and the downstream market has also tightened the price of goods, which soared after the rise of ethylene oxide was established. The rising sentiment of terminal buying, coupled with the demand for double festival goods preparation, has a strong willingness to take goods, which is in sharp contrast to the bleak situation in the early stage.

Compared with the beginning of the month, hPEG increased by 17.98%; TPEG increased by 17.39%; Monoethanolamine rose by 50%; Diethanolamine increased by 19.10%; Triethanolamine increased by 15.05%; AEO-9 increased by 6.67%.

This month’s rise is the main theme. At present, ethylene oxide has turned losses into profits, and the profit space has increased. Based on the latest ethylene CIF Northeast Asia external price of 1135 US dollars / ton and the ex factory price of 8200 yuan / ton in East China, the profit of ethylene oxide is around 100 yuan / ton. As for the rising ceiling, excluding the speculation in the market, we may pay more attention to when to relax the policy and changes in the supply side.

Domestic acetic acid starts at a low level and the market supply is tight. The acetic acid operating rate has not improved after the Mid Autumn Festival, and the market supply continues to be tight. In addition, domestic traders intend to stir up, which promotes the continuous upward trend of acetic acid market.

According to the bulk data monitoring of business society, the average price of acetic acid was 8983.33 yuan / ton on September 26. Compared with the price of 7250.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, it increased by more than 1700 yuan / ton during the week, an increase of 23.91% and 48.24% month on month. As of September 26, the market price of acetic acid in various regions in China rose and fell as follows:

region September 20th September 26th Price rise and fall

South China 7200-7300 yuan / ton 8700-9000 yuan / ton 1500/1700

North China 7200-7400 yuan / ton 9000-9100 yuan / ton 1800/1700

Shandong region 7100-7350 yuan / ton 8900-9300 yuan / ton 1800/1950

Jiangsu region 7600-7950 yuan / ton 8900-9100 yuan / ton 1300/1150

Zhejiang region 7650-8000 yuan / ton 9000-9100 yuan / ton 1350/1100

After the Mid Autumn Festival, there was no improvement in the start-up of domestic acetic acid plants. The acetic acid plants of manufacturers in North China and Northwest China were shut down for maintenance, the production of limited films in Shandong and Jiangsu was reduced, and the acetic acid plants of many factories in the field were shut down for maintenance or limited production. The enterprise inventory was tight, the supply of goods in the market continued to be tight, and the traders’ attitude was very strong, which promoted the market atmosphere. South China was mainly active in following up, The quotation of domestic acetic acid enterprises is high and upward.

Downstream, the market of ethyl acetate continued to rise during the week. As of September 26, the price of ethyl acetate in East China rose to 10850.00 yuan / ton, with an increase of 11.00% during the week. Yankuang and Jiangyin Baichuan at the supply end are still under maintenance, the supply of main factories is reduced, the market supply is reduced, and the impact of raw material acetic acid market further drives up the price of ethyl acetate, The manufacturer’s quotation has increased one after another, and the centralized shutdown of large factories still leads to a shortage of supply. It is expected that there is still upward space in the market in the near future.

According to the acetic acid analysts of business society, in terms of supply in the domestic market, the supply of acetic acid market is tight, the price continues to be high, the downstream purchase is rational, and it is difficult to make up for the supply gap in the field in a short time. It is expected that the future market will be high, and the specific attention will be paid to the market transaction.

Recent urea price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong continued to rise sharply this week. The quotation increased from 2516.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2750.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 9.27%, an increase of 60.82% over the same period last year. Overall, the urea market rose this week, and the urea commodity index was 127.91 on September 24.

The cost support was strengthened, the downstream demand was enhanced, the printing news was good, and the urea supply decreased

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream ex factory price of urea in China rose this week. Zhangzhou San’an urea quoted 2800 yuan / ton this weekend, up 100 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Shandong Ruixing offered 2850 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 270 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week.

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain data, the upstream products of urea increased slightly this week as a whole: the price of LNG decreased slightly, and the quotation decreased from 6256.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 6250.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.11%, a year-on-year increase of 159.69% compared with the same period last year; The price of thermal coal increased, and the quotation increased from 1407.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 1525.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 8.35%, a year-on-year increase of 155.98% compared with the same period last year. The price of liquid ammonia rose sharply. The quotation increased from 4725.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 4950.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 4.76%, a year-on-year increase of 59.68% compared with the same period last year. The price of melamine in the downstream of urea rose slightly this week, from 17000.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 17300.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 1.76%.

From the perspective of demand: the demand increases, the agricultural demand begins to prepare fertilizer, the industrial demand rises, the demand for urea in the downstream compound fertilizer and rubber plate plants increases, and the operating load rate of melamine enterprises remains at a high level. Most of them follow up with the acquisition and use of an appropriate amount. From the perspective of supply: urea has entered the centralized maintenance period, the early shutdown and maintenance has not been recovered (Tianrun, Boyuan, etc.), energy consumption control shutdown (Ningyang, Linggu), fault shutdown (xinlianxin, Dongguang, Jinkai), defect elimination of new units (Haoyuan), safety control (Jinxin), and the daily output of urea is less than 140000 tons. Internationally: India RCF announced a new round of urea import bidding, which was opened on October 1, valid until October 12, and the latest shipping date was November 11. On the whole, the urea cost support is strengthened, the downstream demand is increased, the printing news is good, the urea supply is reduced, and the supply is in short supply.

Urea prices are bullish in the future

In late September, the urea market in Shandong Province may rise slightly. Urea analysts of business society believe that at present, urea has entered the centralized maintenance period, the supply is tight, the demand for autumn fertilizer will be opened, compound fertilizer plants and large traders begin to take goods, the industrial demand has increased, there is also good news from the printing standard, and the market price may fluctuate slightly in the future.

According to the price monitoring of business society, the domestic polyester filament market continued to rebound slightly this week (September 20-26). As of September 26, for mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, the quotation of polyester POY (150D / 48F) is 7250-7600 yuan / ton, that of polyester DTY (150D / 48F low elasticity) is 8900-9200 yuan / ton, and that of polyester FDY (150D / 96F) is 7850-8000 yuan / ton.

Rise and fall of average price of polyester filament market this week, unit: yuan / ton

product 2021-9-20 2021-9-26 Rise and fall Year on year rise and fall

Polyester POY (150D / 48F) seven thousand three hundred and eleven seven thousand five hundred and twenty-seven 2.96% 46%

Polyester FDY (150D / 96F) seven thousand seven hundred and twenty-one seven thousand nine hundred and thirty 2.70% 42.50%

Polyester DTY (150D / 48F low elasticity) eight thousand seven hundred and ninety-seven eight thousand nine hundred and seventy-four 2.02% 36.47%

Raw crude oil continued to rise at a high level, strengthening cost support. As of September 24, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was reported as US $73.98/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was reported as US $78.09/barrel. The maintenance of PTA unit increased, and the start-up of the industry decreased to less than 70%. Meanwhile, the supplier Hengli Petrochemical’s supply decreased by 30% in October, and there is no pressure on the supply side. This week, the domestic PTA market fluctuated upward, and the average price in the spot market was 5160 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 4.40% and a year-on-year increase of 51.73%.

The quality of the “golden nine silver ten” in the textile terminal industry is insufficient. Affected by the power limitation of weaving enterprises and the “double reduction and double control” of printing and dyeing plants in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, the operating load of looms has rapidly decreased to less than 55%. In terms of export, the continuous rise of sea freight, the lengthening of transportation turnover time and the increase of logistics costs continue to put pressure on overseas orders of textile and clothing.

Business analysts believe that the polyester market has maintained an upward momentum driven by the positive cost side. It is expected that the price of polyester filament will remain volatile and upward before the National Day holiday. However, the current power restriction in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has a great impact on the downstream weaving and printing and dyeing industries, and the demand side shrinks sharply, which will highlight the contradiction between polyester filament supply, so the price increase will not be too large.

Trade name: acetic acid

Latest price (September 24): 8866.67 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the bulk data monitoring of business society, the acetic acid market continued to rise. On September 24, the price of acetic acid was 8866.67 yuan / ton, an increase of more than 500 yuan / ton compared with the previous working day, with a single day increase of 6.19%. The domestic acetic acid plant started at a low level, the on-site supply continued to be tight, the acetic acid price of individual enterprises in East China continued to break through new highs, the on-site atmosphere was obviously bullish, and North and South China followed the rise. At present, the acetic acid plants of manufacturers in North China and Northwest China are shut down for maintenance, the production of limited films in Shandong and Jiangsu is reduced, and the acetic acid plants of many factories in the site are shut down for maintenance or limited production. The enterprise inventory is tight, the manufacturer’s quotation is increased, the supply of goods in the market continues to be tight, the traders’ attitude is obvious, and the acetic acid market is up.

Future forecast: the supply of acetic acid in the domestic market continues to be tight, the market is high and upward, and the downstream purchase is rational, but it is difficult to make up for the on-site supply gap in a short time. It is expected that the future market will be high and strong, and pay attention to the downstream transaction.

According to the price monitoring of business club, the current price of domestic PTA rose slightly today (September 23). The average price in the spot market was 4966 yuan / ton, with a single day increase of 1.08% and a year-on-year increase of 45.89%. The main futures 2201 closed at 5000 and settled at 4950, an increase of 134 or 2.75%.

In terms of supply, with the overhaul of Hengli petrochemical 2#2.2 million tons, Yangzi Petrochemical 2#65 million tons and Baihong 1.25 million tons PTA plant, the load of 3.3 million tons PTA plant of Yisheng new material decreased. At the same time, the supply of Hengli petrochemical, the supplier, decreased by 30% in October, which supported the PTA price. In addition, the raw material end also has a certain boost. On September 22, the international oil price rose. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $72.23/barrel, an increase of US $1.74 or 2.5%, and the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures was US $76.19/barrel, an increase of US $1.83 or 2.5%. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) released positive crude oil inventory data on Wednesday, which showed that US crude oil inventory fell to the lowest level in three years.

However, the production of downstream polyester and weaving factories is reduced, mainly promoted by mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, and the quotation discount ranges from 100-300 yuan / month. The textile terminal industry was affected by the power restriction of weaving enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, the “double reduction and double control” of printing and dyeing plants and the lack of quality of “golden nine silver ten”, and the operating load of looms decreased rapidly to 59.24%. In terms of export, the continuous rise of sea freight, the lengthening of transportation turnover time and the increase of logistics costs continue to put pressure on textile and garment export orders.

Xia Ting, an analyst at the business agency, believes that the current crude oil cost support is acceptable, there are more maintenance of PTA units, and there is no pressure on the supply side; However, in terms of demand, it is mainly cautious to observe the market, and the overall transaction is weak. Therefore, it is expected that the short-term PTA price will maintain a narrow rise.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average ex factory price of LLDPE (7042) in East China was 8450.00 yuan / ton on September 12 and 8766.67 yuan / ton on September 22, with an increase of 3.75% and 6.26% compared with September 1.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average ex factory price of LDPE (2426h) in East China was 11950.00 yuan / ton on September 12 and 12300.00 yuan / ton on September 22, with an increase of 2.93% and 7.61% compared with September 1.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average ex factory price of HDPE (5000S) in East China was 8866.67 yuan / ton on September 12 and 9166.67 yuan / ton on September 22, with an increase of 3.38% and 4.76% compared with September 1.

In the past ten days, LDPE in East China rose periodically, HDPE rose first and then stabilized, LLDPE first opened and then fell, and the prices of the three PE spot varieties continued to rise as a whole. In the third week of September, most Petrochemical ex factory prices rose by 50-500 yuan / ton, with strong cost support. In addition, under the influence of “double control”, some coal chemical enterprises have load reduction expectations, which boosted the bullish sentiment of the market. The futures rose sharply on September 15 and 16, the market trading atmosphere was acceptable, the inventory decreased, the merchant mentality was good, and the spot market price mainly rose. Before the Mid Autumn Festival, only the factory quotation of LLDPE fell slightly, LDPE continued to rise after the festival, and the HDPE and LLDPE markets in East China remained stable for the time being.

The recent rise of Liansu futures has brought phased benefits to the spot market. On September 22, the opening price of polyethylene futures 2201 was 8750, the highest price was 8950, the lowest price was 8670, the closing price was 8870, the former settlement price was 8845, the settlement price was 8800, up 25, or 0.28%, the trading volume was 448521, the position was 326936, and the daily position was increased by – 8366. (quotation unit: yuan / ton)

At present, the futures market has increased, the overall rise and fall of petrochemical enterprises are mixed, the trading atmosphere in the market after the festival is general, the downstream mentality is cautious, and multi-dimensional holds replenishment on demand. Merchants’ quotations follow the market, and the firm offer focuses on a single discussion. Although the demand of downstream enterprises is in the peak season, but the orders are less than expected, in the future, the positive factors in the polyethylene market still exist. With the arrival of the National Day holiday and the double 11 e-commerce Festival, the downstream start-up growth is obvious, and the “double control” affects the fermentation. The parking and maintenance enterprises have growth expectations. It is expected that the PE spot market will fluctuate in a short or narrow range in the short term, and the above actors are still the main players in the long term.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the price of pure benzene rose broadly in the first half of this week and began to fall on Thursday. On September 12, the price of pure benzene was 7950-8400 yuan / ton (average price: 8080 yuan / ton), and on Sunday (September 19), the price of pure benzene was 8100-8600 yuan / ton (average price: 8360 yuan / ton). The average price increased by 280 yuan / ton, or 3.67%, compared with last week; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 146.61%.

2、 Analysis and review

Affected by the epidemic and typhoon, the arrival of cargo was delayed, the port inventory decreased significantly, the spot supply in East China was tight, stimulated the active purchase in the downstream, and the market speculation was strong. In the second half of the week, affected by the “double control” policy, the downstream operating rate decreased significantly; In addition, the reserve of pure benzene in the downstream is relatively sufficient due to short supply in the early stage, and the resistance to high priced pure benzene in the downstream is strengthened and the follow-up is weakened. Market buying enthusiasm fell, pure benzene market fell, traders took profits and prices fell. This week, Sinopec’s pure benzene price was raised three times and lowered once, and the adjusted price was 8300-8450 yuan / ton.

In terms of external price, the external price of pure benzene in Asia fluctuated and fell this week. On Friday (September 17), the reference price of pure benzene in the Korean market was US $976 / T, down US $19 / T, or 1.91%, compared with September 10; The reference import price in East China was US $1035 / T, down US $10 / T or 0.96% month on month on September 10.

In terms of crude oil, hurricane IDA has a great impact on U.S. oil and gas production, and the recovery of oil and gas production is slow. In addition, U.S. crude oil inventory and refined oil inventory have decreased, and the international oil price has shown an overall upward trend this week. On September 10, Brent rose $2.42 / barrel, or 3.32%; WTI rose $2.25/barrel, or 3.23%.

Downstream: styrene: styrene fell after a wide rise this week. On September 17, the price of sample enterprises was 9387.5 yuan / ton, an increase of 2.88% over last week and 72.78% over the same period last year. Driven by the forced short market of pure benzene on the cost side, the price of styrene continued to rise and the spot remained strong. Over the weekend, with the exchange and rescue of some domestic pure benzene, the pure benzene Market weakened, driving the correction of styrene price.

Aniline: Unplanned parking of Jiangsu Yangnong and Jiangsu Fuqiang under the “double control” policy; A 100000 t / a unit of Nanhua was shut down to replace the catalyst. At present, aniline in Jiangsu has lost 130000 T / a production capacity. The spot supply in East China was tight, and the inventory of aniline enterprises in Shandong and Shanxi decreased rapidly, driving the overall supply in the field to be tight. During the week, the price of aniline rose continuously and the price rose broadly.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, with the recovery of oil and gas production in the Gulf of Mexico, the oil price may fall. Continue to pay attention to the impact of the epidemic situation, OPEC + decisions on crude oil production, US crude oil and refined oil storage dynamics, global economic conditions and so on on on crude oil prices.

Downstream: the downstream has strong resistance to high priced pure benzene. Downstream main product styrene: raw material pure benzene is lack of follow-up driving force, and the fundamentals of styrene may weaken. In addition, the “double control” of regional governments is strengthened, and the downstream demand may further weaken. It is expected that styrene will maintain shock after a slight correction in the short term.

Crude oil storage may fall; Affected by the “double control” policy in the downstream, the downstream operating rate in East China decreased significantly, and the subsequent demand for pure benzene was weak. At the end of this month, Dalian Fujia and Dalian Hengli planned maintenance, and the supply is expected to decrease, or offset the bad brought by the decline in demand. Overall, it is expected that pure benzene will be consolidated at a high level after a slight decline. Continue to pay attention to the downstream market, the dynamics of domestic pure benzene units, and the impact of crude oil, external market and other trends on the price of pure benzene.

According to the bulk list data of business society, the price trend of TDI market temporarily operated stably. On September 16, the average market price in East China was 14400 yuan / ton, down 4.79% month on month.

On September 16, the distribution market in East China was temporarily stable, and the distribution market price remained stable. The price of domestic goods was about 13800-14000 yuan / ton, and the price of Shanghai goods was about 14300-14500 yuan / ton. The actual transaction price was subject to negotiation. The domestic TDI market is waiting to be sorted out, the trading atmosphere on the site is light, and the downstream demand has not increased. The equipment of many domestic TDI factories is overhauled, and the supplier has no inventory pressure for the time being. However, the downstream transaction of the terminal is not smooth, the downstream follows up rationally, and just needs to buy. The operator’s mentality is mainly waiting to see, the future market situation is sorted out and operated, and the downstream follow-up is concerned.

Zinc prices rose first and then fell this week

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the zinc price rose first and then fell this week. The zinc price fell for two consecutive days on September 14 and 15. The rise of the zinc market fell, and the zinc market returned to stability. As of September 15, the price of zinc was 22810.00 yuan / ton, down 0.36% from 22893.33 yuan / ton on September 7; Compared with the zinc price of 22613.33 yuan / ton on September 1, it increased by 0.87%. Overall, zinc prices rose first and then fell in September, and the overall zinc market fluctuated and maintained stability.

Zinc spot basis in September

According to the monitoring data of business society, as of September 14, 2021, the maximum 180 day main basis of zinc (Changjiang nonferrous metals) was 850.00, the minimum was 360.00, and the average was 630.24. The maximum value of 90 day main basis is 850.00, the minimum value is 560.00, and the average value is 716.02. In September, the main basis of zinc fluctuated and adjusted between 645-780. Overall, the trend of futures and spot market in zinc market is similar, and the differences in futures and spot market are small.

Key inspector of environmental protection nonferrous industry

The Ministry of ecology and environment held a regular press conference in August on August 26. Spokesman Liu Youbin introduced that the second round of the fourth batch of central eco-environmental protection inspectors was fully launched. Since the 26th, seven Central Ecological and environmental protection supervision teams have carried out supervision and stationed for about one month in five provinces of Jilin, Shandong, Hubei, Guangdong and Sichuan, and two central enterprises of China Nonferrous Metals Mining Group Co., Ltd. and China Gold Group Co., Ltd. In addition to the key provinces, two central enterprises in the nonferrous industry were mainly stationed in this supervision. Environmental protection inspectors focused on central enterprises and enterprises in the non-ferrous industry, which stimulated the rise of the non-ferrous sector.

Overview and Outlook

Bai Jiaxin, an analyst of business society, believes that affected by the central environmental protection supervision team stationed in two central enterprises in the non-ferrous industry, the non-ferrous sector generally rose in September, stimulating the price rise of zinc City, but the balance between supply and demand of zinc city has not been broken, the trend of zinc City has not changed, and the main basis of zinc is relatively stable. With the national reserve of zinc successively put into the market, the support for the rise of zinc market caused by environmental protection weakened, the zinc price fell, and the zinc market returned to stability. Zinc prices are expected to remain stable in the future.