Aluminum prices fluctuated upward in July

On July 29, the average market price of aluminum ingots was 19510 yuan / ton. In July, the price of aluminum ingots generally fluctuated upward, with an operation range of 18700-19500 yuan / ton.

According to the data of business agency, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China was 19510 yuan / ton on July 29, up 3.61% from 18830 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

Taking the average market price of 15726.67 yuan / ton of aluminum ingots at the beginning of the year (January 1, 2021) as the benchmark price, it has increased by 24.06%.

Summary of aluminum market

Cost side: in mid July, electrolytic aluminum in Yunnan and Inner Mongolia faced pressure on production again. With the launch of carbon trading, the cost of electrolytic aluminum enterprises further increased. Alumina prices rose during the month.

Supply and demand side: the social inventory data of aluminum ingots support the aluminum price, and the local tension of industrial power consumption in summer superimposes the process of putting into operation and resuming production.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that the current price around 18500-19500 yuan / ton is a steady-state shock range formed by the market game. It is expected that the price of aluminum ingot will basically run around 19000 yuan / ton in the near future

On July 27, the average price of spandex was 79800 yuan / ton, up 12200 yuan / ton or 18.05% compared with that on April 27. The overall price of spandex showed an upward trend, up 156.59% year-on-year. The domestic market price of spandex is running strongly. According to the data collected by wind from China chemical fiber economic information network, the average price of spandex 40d in the first half of this year was 58787 yuan / ton, up 101% year-on-year from 29199 yuan / ton in the same period in 2020. At the end of June, the price was raised to 71500 yuan / ton, a record high since August 2010.

On July 26, the spandex commodity index was 181.36, unchanged from yesterday, hitting a record high in the cycle, up 179.02% from the lowest point of 65.00 on July 28, 2016（ Note: period refers to 2012-07-01 to now)

From the upstream, from January to May this year, spandex continued to rise, mainly due to the rise of its raw material PTMEG (polytetrahydrofuran) and the pull of demand. PTMEG is the main raw material of spandex, accounting for 80% of spandex raw materials. Affected by the control of overseas epidemic and the recovery of demand, oil prices rose in the first half of this year, and the raw materials for PTMEG production were refined from oil. Since this year, PTMEG has increased by 124%. Since May, the demand has become stronger and stronger, especially sportswear, yoga clothes, swimsuit, etc. Benefiting from the scale effect of large refining and chemical industry, the rise of spandex price and the great increase of demand, many chemical fiber listed companies have “reported good results” in the first half of this year.

Business analysts believe that the bottom of spandex’s recent cost correction has more support in the future. When the downstream demand is expected to be good, spandex is expected to maintain a high business cycle, the demand side promotes the superposition supply to increase slightly, and the spandex market may continue to operate at a high level. Since April 18, 2021, the 7-day moving average has crossed the 30 day moving average to start the upward trend. At present, the two moving averages continue to rise in the same direction. It is estimated on July 25, 2021 that the probability of operation situation change (i.e. the 7-day moving average crosses the 30-day moving average) in the next 7 days is only 1.90%.

According to the data monitored by the business society, the PP market has fluctuated recently, and the spot prices of various brands have fallen as a whole. As of July 26, the mainstream offer price of T30S (wire drawing) from domestic manufacturers and traders was about 8516.67 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.97% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month and an increase of 5.58% year-on-year.

Cause analysis

The domestic (Shandong) market of propylene upstream of PP turned around last week and continued to rise. At the beginning of the week, the market was 7673 yuan / ton, and the weekend average price was 7809 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.66%. After the collapse of crude oil prices, the rebound accelerated last week, followed by propylene. The downstream is purchased on demand. In general, the downstream performance of propylene is acceptable. Although propylene prices have rebounded recently, on the whole, bad crude oil is dominant. It is suggested to pay close attention to the changes in oil prices. The short-term market shock and downward trend are still the main tone.

The upstream propylene market has warmed up and the cost side support of PP has been strengthened. It is reported that the current average operating rate of the industry has further decreased. In addition, last week, China Coal Mengda, Shanghai Secco and other enterprises issued maintenance plans. While the on-site supply has decreased, the market supply is expected to decrease. In terms of terminal enterprises, the average load continues to decline, and the demand is difficult to increase. However, the news showed that the total domestic PP inventory decreased by more than 7% last week. It can be seen that the shipment pressure of merchants is not as large as expected, but the downstream enterprises just need to follow up in the purchase operation, and there is a certain upward resistance on the disk.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the data monitored by the business society, as of July 26, the mainstream offer price of domestic manufacturers and traders Z30S (fiber) was about 8550 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1.91% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month and an increase of 9.85% year-on-year. Recently, the proportion of domestic fiber PP output decreased, falling to about 5% last weekend. At present, the demand for fiber PP is general, the load of production lines of spunbonded non-woven fabrics and Spunlaced non-woven fabrics in main downstream factories is relatively stable, and the consumption level is general. The market is weak, the mentality of the operators is not strong, and the actual orders are more profitable.

In terms of melt blown materials, the melt blown PP market has continued to be weak and stable recently, and the spot price level has stabilized in the range of less than 10000 yuan. As of July 26, the average quotation of domestic meltblown material pph-y1500 sample enterprises monitored by business society was about 9600 yuan / ton. It is reported that PP melts are frequently produced in the domestic market. As a result, there are few devices still in production in China. At present, the domestic epidemic situation is generally stable, and the demand for medical protective articles is saturated. The overseas epidemic level is stable, the demand for oxygen generator and other equipment related products in the external epidemic prevention market increases, and the pulling effect on the melt blown PP industry is not obvious. It is difficult to meet the demand for melt blown materials, and it is expected that the price market may continue to be weak.

Future forecast

PP analysts of business society believe that the domestic polypropylene market generally remained weak and volatile last week, showing a weak consolidation trend. The load of downstream enterprises is low, and the demand is generally followed up. There is a great pressure on the delivery of high price goods in the venue, and the merchants prefer to make profit. The upstream propylene market has warmed up and the cost side support of PP has been strengthened. The confidence in the venue is insufficient, and most operators are bearish. It is expected that the PP price may continue the weak consolidation pattern in the short term.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the average ex factory tax price of domestic light potassium carbonate was 7450.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, 7840.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 5.23%, the current price rose by 13.79% month on month, and the current price rose by 26.20% year-on-year.

Potassium carbonate showed an upward trend this week, breaking through the 8000 mark and skyrocketing. The supply of potassium carbonate market is relatively scarce, most of which are concentrated in the hands of large traders, holding their plates and reluctant to sell, and there are few new orders in the market. Under the condition of high potassium carbonate market, the downstream is basically purchased on demand, and the focus of potassium carbonate market continues to move upward. According to the statistics of business agency, the mainstream factory quotation range of domestic industrial grade potassium carbonate this week is about 7500-8200 yuan / ton (the quotation is for reference only). The quotation is different according to different procurement conditions.

Recently, the quotation of mainstream potassium chloride manufacturers has been shaken and consolidated: on July 23, the potassium chloride equipment of Qinghai Salt Lake potassium fertilizer Co., Ltd. operated normally. The ex factory quotation is about 2450 yuan / ton, the quotation is temporarily stable, and the actual transaction price is mainly negotiated. On July 23, Anhui Badou Chemical Co., Ltd. did not offer potassium chloride temporarily. In the near future, the potassium chloride market continues to be strong at a high level, and the source of imported potassium is slightly supplemented. However, there are few goods released by large traders, and it is expected to be mainly high consolidation in the later stage.

Potassium carbonate analysts of business society believe that the supply of potash fertilizer in the domestic market has increased slightly recently, with a small amount of shipments from traders and downstream procurement on demand. It is expected that the price of potassium carbonate will mainly rise in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see（ The above prices are provided by major potassium nitrate manufacturers all over the country and sorted and analyzed by potassium carbonate analysts of business society. They are for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details).

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk data monitoring of business society, as of July 23, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 16333.33 yuan / ton, down 2.2% from the previous day, down 2.78% from the beginning of the month, up 1.2% month on month and 1.03% compared with the same period last year.

According to the bulk data monitoring of business society, as of July 23, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 21000 yuan / ton, down 1.56% from the previous day, 8.43% from the beginning of the month, 8.43% month on month, and 21.62% higher than the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of refrigerant R22 fell this week, and the market fell steadily. Hydrofluoric acid, the raw material, has been operating steadily for many months. The price of methane oxide has fallen, and the support on the cost side has weakened. In addition, the demand side has been relatively light, the demand of the air conditioning industry has fallen sharply, the delivery pressure of refrigerant enterprises has increased, traders’ hoarding mood is not high, and the market center of gravity has shifted downward. However, supported by quotas, the price is not easy to fall deeply. As of July 23, the market quotation of R22 is mostly in the range of 15000-16500 yuan / ton, about 16000 yuan / ton in Shandong, about 15000-16500 yuan / ton in Zhejiang, about 15800-16300 yuan / ton in Hunan and about 16000 yuan / ton in Guangzhou. The prices in various regions have fallen steadily.

This week, the market price of refrigerant R134a fell, and the raw material hydrofluoric acid operated stably in many months. However, the focus of trichloroethylene moved down, and the support of cost side fell. In addition, R134a rose too fast in the early stage, but the demand in the off-season was poor, the enterprise inventory increased, the quotation of the carrier fell, the mentality was negative, and there were still downward expectations. At present, the market quotation of R134a is mostly in the range of 19500-22000 yuan / ton, that of Zhejiang is about 1950-22000 yuan / ton, that of Hunan is about 20000-20500 yuan / ton, and that of Guangzhou is about 20000-21000 yuan / ton.

In terms of raw materials, on July 23, the mainstream price of domestic anhydrous hydrofluoric acid manufacturers was 9300-9600 yuan / ton. The ex factory price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid manufacturers was temporarily stable. The operating rate of domestic hydrofluoric acid manufacturers was normal and the supply of goods in the field was stable. Affected by the high price of fluorite, the market trend of downstream refrigerants in the near future was temporarily stable, mainly purchased on demand in the field. It is expected that the price in the field will be stable in the later stage.

Chloroform, the price of raw liquid chlorine is low, and the cost support is weak. According to the business agency, as of July 19, the mainstream ex factory price of liquid chlorine of tank cars in Shandong Province was about 1050 yuan / ton; In addition, although it has entered the continuous high-temperature weather, the refrigerant sales have not increased significantly recently. Affected by the increase of refrigerant inventory, the maintenance of refrigerant units has increased, and the support for chloroform has weakened. The ex factory price of chloroform enterprises in Shandong decreased, and the market quotation fell.

3、 Future forecast

Business analysts believe that at present, the support of the cost side has weakened. In addition, it is difficult for downstream demand to boost the market in the off-season. Under the pressure of bad news, the mentality of the operators is negative. R22 is supported by quotas and the price may be strong. While R134a inventory pressure increases, the owner may continue to sell at a profit, and the price is expected to decline or continue to decline.

After entering July, the overall trend of Shandong’s civil gas market showed a volatile rise. Since the 8th, there have been many positive factors in the market, and the price has been rising one after another. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of liquefied gas in Shandong civil market was 4346.67 yuan / ton on July 8 and 4466.67 yuan / ton on July 22, with an increase of 2.76% and 3.24% compared with July 1.

As of July 22, the mainstream prices of LPG in various regions of China are as follows:

Specifications type of shipping region Mainstream quotation

Civil gas Motor transport North China 4320-4470 yuan / ton

Civil gas Motor transport East China 4300-4550 yuan / ton

Civil gas Motor transport South China 4400-4500 yuan / ton

Civil gas Motor transport Shandong Province 4400-4680 yuan / ton

Recently, the trend of domestic LPG market is relatively strong. Shandong civil gas market began to enter the upward channel on July 8, during which there are many favorable factors. One is the international crude oil market. Although the international crude oil fluctuates frequently recently, it is still at a high level as a whole. In addition, the strong external price has brought some support to the LPG market. Secondly, many plants in Shandong Province were overhauled, and the supply of Shandong market declined. For the overhaul of some units of Jincheng Petrochemical Company, no external quotation was made. The decrease of supply has brought obvious support to the market. Coupled with the expected rise of CP in August, a positive market attitude is the third. At present, the mainstream transaction price of Shandong is around 4550-4650 yuan / ton, the overall transaction atmosphere of the market is mild, the downstream buyers are active in entering the market, the manufacturers are smooth in shipping, the mentality is firm, and the price has been pushed up. However, due to the flat shipment situation in South China market, the current price has fallen.

LPG futures market rose significantly, which brought certain benefits to the spot market. On July 22, the opening price of 2109 LPG futures contract was 4827, the highest price was 4978, the lowest price was 4827, the closing price was 4963, the former settlement price was 4825, the settlement price was 4909, up 138, or 2.86%, the trading volume was 84467, the position was 70785, and the daily increase was 4923（ Quotation unit: yuan / ton)

In the international crude oil market, on July 21, the international oil price rose sharply. The settlement price of the main contract in the WTI crude oil futures market of the United States was US $70.32/barrel, up 3.12 US dollars or 4.64%. The settlement price of the main contract in the Brent crude oil futures market was US $72.23/barrel, up 2.88 US dollars or 4.20%. Although US commercial crude oil inventories increased for the first time in eight weeks, market risk index preference improved and oil prices rebounded sharply.

At present, although the market is in the traditional off-season and the terminal demand is weak, the low supply in Shandong has brought obvious support to the market, the downstream buying mentality is more positive, the manufacturer’s mentality is strong, and the international crude oil is at a high level, with obvious market favorable support. It is expected that the market price of Shandong civil gas will be strong in the short term.

The collapse of cost support was caused by the heavy fall of international oil prices, and the current PTA price fell significantly yesterday (July 20). As of July 20, the average price of domestic PTA spot market was 5050 yuan / ton, down 2.29% compared with the previous trading day, up 43.43% year on year. PTA futures main force 2109 closed 4974, down 158, or 3.08%.

However, it is said that the main port of the Yangtze River has been affected by typhoon. The air is closed for three days, PTA Zhapu and other regions are in short supply, and the current price fluctuation has been rising. In addition, the price of oil rebounded slightly, and the cost was boosted. PTA futures main force 2109 closed 5190, up 204, up 4.09%. The average spot market price was 5182 yuan / ton, up 2.61%.

In terms of supply, recently, the PTA plant of Fuhai Chuang 4.5 million tons / year will reduce its load to 60-70% in mid July 2021. Ningbo Taihua 1.2 million tons PTA plant was overhauled from July 10 to 28, 2021. The PTA plant with annual capacity of 325000 tons of Luoyang Petrochemical was stopped in early July 2021, and it has been restarted recently, and the starting load is not high. PTA industry overall operating rate is around 80%. However, the downstream polyester maintains a high starting load of about 88%, and the demand for PTA is relatively stable, so the PTA will be mainly in inventory in July.

Business analysts believe that, in a comprehensive view, considering the tight liquidity spot in PTA Market in the near future, supply and demand support is still acceptable. It is also concerned that the weather will lead to the problem of unloading goods from the source to the port. It is expected that the PTA price will continue to fluctuate and warm in the short term, but the dynamic of the oil injection market still needs to be closed.

According to the commodity index system of business community, the natural rubber commodity index on July 20 was 37.59, down 1.48 points from yesterday, down 62.41% from the highest point of 100.00 points in the cycle (2011-09-01), and up 37.79% from the lowest point of 27.28 points on April 2, 2020（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now

Data monitoring shows that on July 20, the main contract of HuJiao 09 was significantly reduced by 650 yuan / ton, and the spot price of domestic all latex was reduced by 500-600 yuan / ton, with a single day reduction of about 4%. According to market data, the price of domestic latex in East China is generally reduced by about 500 yuan / ton: in 19, the price of Baodao whole milk was 12650-12700 yuan / ton, in 19, the price of Guangken whole milk was 12650-12700 yuan / ton, in 19, the price of Sinochem whole milk was 12650-12700 yuan / ton, in 19, the price of Yunxiang whole milk was 12700-12750 yuan / ton, in 19, the price of 3L glue in Vietnam was 12450-12500 yuan / ton, In the past 20 years, Thailand hongmanli offered about 17500 yuan / ton of tobacco glue.

Factor analysis: affected by the sharp drop of international crude oil, commodity futures have been greatly adjusted. Shanghai Rubber fell 650 yuan / ton on the 20th. The domestic spot price of rubber was adjusted along with the market. The Shanghai and Qingdao markets were generally reduced by about 500 yuan / ton. Macroscopically, rubber, as a kind of futures, is greatly affected by the crude oil market. The crude oil fell more than 7% at night, and commodity futures have been greatly adjusted, so rubber is inevitable. Recently, the epidemic situation in Europe and the United States was affected by the mutant strains, and the prevention measures were strengthened. The local economic recovery was once again severely tested, and the demand for raw materials and commodities showed a decreasing trend. In terms of output, Hainan and Yunnan are in the traditional seasonal production increasing period, and the supply side pressure is increasing rapidly; Overseas, Southeast Asia has been greatly affected by the recent epidemic: according to Thailand’s news on the 20th, affected by the spread of delta mutant virus, the world’s three largest rubber producing countries, namely Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia, have reduced their rubber production by 4-5% due to curfews and city closures. Thailand’s rubber Bureau said that the local rubber price had fallen slightly due to the epidemic, But now it’s starting to get better. Downstream, automobile data — according to the statistical analysis of China Automobile Industry Association, in June 2021, the production and sales of domestic commercial vehicles decreased significantly year on year. In terms of vehicle types, the production and sales of freight cars decreased significantly year on year, while the production and sales of passenger cars increased significantly year on year. In June 2021, 388000 and 446000 commercial vehicles were produced and sold, with a month on month decrease of 8.3% and 7.4%, and a year-on-year decrease of 26.3% and 16.8%.; Operating rate data – on July 16, the operating load of all steel tires of tire enterprises in Shandong Province was 59.85%, up 17.58 percentage points from last week, down 8.98 percentage points from the same period of last year, and down 15.09 percentage points from the same period of 2019. The starting load of semi steel tire of domestic tire enterprises was 56.38%, 11.37% higher than that of last week, 8.36% lower than that of the same period of last year, and 14.83% lower than that of the same period of 2019. In terms of import and export, the high shipping costs and the lack of vessels still have a great impact on the import volume of rubber in China’s market, the export delivery cycle is extended, and the domestic tire export pressure continues. In terms of inventory, the outstanding thing is the high inventory of finished products of tire factories, which is currently in the off-season of demand, and it is difficult to boost the demand for raw materials before the golden nine silver ten.

Future forecast: the adjustment range of natural rubber is relatively large, and it does not have the basis of continuous large decline. It is expected that the future market will be dominated by short-term low volatility.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, at the beginning of the week, the price of domestic first-class industrial potassium nitrate was 5440.00 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week, the price of domestic first-class industrial potassium nitrate was 5480.00 yuan / ton, up 0.74%. The current price has increased by 13.46% month on month, and the current price has increased by 30.87% year on year.

This week, the domestic potassium nitrate market rose, and the market supply was tight. Most of them were concentrated in the hands of large traders. They were reluctant to sell, and the overall turnover of the market was slow. The overall supply is at a low level, the downstream market purchases on demand, the potassium nitrate market continues to rise, and the price continues to break through the highest point. According to the statistics of the business society, the quotation of mainstream domestic potassium nitrate manufacturers this week is 4900-5800 yuan / ton (the quotation is for reference only), and the quotation is different according to different purchasing situations.

Recently, the quotation of potassium chloride mainstream manufacturers fluctuated and consolidated: on July 16, the potassium chloride equipment of Qinghai Salt Lake Potash Fertilizer Co., Ltd. operated normally. The ex factory quotation is about 2450 yuan / ton, the quotation is temporarily stable, and the actual transaction price is mainly through negotiation. On July 16, Anhui Badou Chemical Co., Ltd. did not offer potassium chloride for the time being. Recently, the potassium chloride market has maintained a high consolidation, and the imported potassium supply has been replenished, but the inventory is still tight, and it is expected to be high and strong in the later period.

Recently, the domestic potash fertilizer market continues to show an upward trend. Most of the imported potash sources are concentrated in the hands of traders, and the circulation of market sources is limited. It is expected that the market of potassium nitrate will mainly rise in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see（ The above prices are provided by the main manufacturers of potassium nitrate all over the country and sorted out and analyzed by the potassium carbonate analysts of the business society. They are for reference only. For more price details, please contact the relevant manufacturers for consultation).

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s block list, the weakness of aniline Market weakened this week. On July 9, the price in Shandong was 10000-10200 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing was 10200-10400 yuan / ton, while that in Shandong was 9400-9600 yuan / ton on July 16; The price of aniline in Nanjing was 9700 yuan / ton, with an average price of 5.63% lower than last week, 20.25% higher than the beginning of the year, and 124.41% higher than the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

In terms of cost, the inventory of East China port remained low this week, and the supply of pure benzene in the spot market was still tight. At the beginning of the week, Sinopec’s pure benzene price was lowered by 150 yuan / ton to 8600 yuan / ton, which was lower than the market expectation. According to the dynamic situation of the plant, there will be new pure benzene output in the second phase of Zhejiang Petrochemical Company, and Weilian chemical and North Huajin units will be shut down for maintenance. In terms of demand, downstream products are in deficit, some units are reducing load, and the demand for pure benzene may decline.

The price of nitric acid rose for six consecutive weeks. On Friday (July 16), the price of nitric acid production in East China was 2450 yuan / ton, up 2.08% from last week and 68.97% from the same period last year.

Jinling aniline began to ship, and the spot supply increased; In addition, Wanhua chemical’s 400000 T / a new aniline plant has been put into operation, which has a huge impact on the future supply of aniline Market and a strong market bearish attitude. Downstream demand maintains rigid demand and lacks support.

3、 Future expectation

In terms of cost, the second phase of Zhejiang Petrochemical Company is expected to have new pure benzene output and increased supply, so the market is bearish on the future. Although the shutdown of some units will offset part of the output, the downward pressure of pure benzene is greater.

The supply of aniline is expected to increase greatly in the later stage, but it is difficult for downstream demand to make a big breakthrough in the short term. Under the pressure of oversupply, aniline may continue to weaken. Continue to pay attention to the trend of raw material, downstream demand and aniline plant.