In May, the trend of dimethyl ether Market was high first and then low. In the first half of the month, it continued to rise, and in the second half, it continued to fall, and the overall price center moved up. According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the average price of dimethyl ether in Henan market was 3460.00 yuan / ton on May 1 and 3717.50 yuan / ton on May 31, with an increase of 7.44% in May, up 62.81% over the same period last year. As of May 31, the domestic market prices of dimethyl ether are as follows:

region Specifications date offer

Shandong Province Mass fraction of dimethyl ether: ≥ 99.0% May 31st 3750 yuan / ton

Hebei Province Mass fraction of dimethyl ether: ≥ 99.0% May 31st 3750 yuan / ton

Henan Province Mass fraction of dimethyl ether: ≥ 99.0% May 31st 3660-3700 yuan / ton

In May, the domestic dimethyl ether market can be divided into two stages: the first half of the month and the second half of the month. In the first half of the month, driven by the rise of raw materials, the domestic dimethyl ether market continued to rise, and most of the enterprises’ external quotation exceeded the 4000 yuan / ton level. In the second half of the month, due to the lack of support for raw materials and limited market demand, prices fell.

Let’s first look at the first half of the month. After the May Day holiday, the price of dimethyl ether in the domestic market continued to rise and could not stop. The main reasons for the rise are as follows. The most obvious one is the raw material methanol market. Due to the rising price of coal, methanol has risen sharply. The methanol futures and spot prices have risen hand in hand, bringing obvious benefits to the dimethyl ether Market. Secondly, in terms of market supply, most manufacturers of dimethyl ether are in the state of maintenance, and the decrease of market supply brings some support. Finally, in terms of demand, after the festival, there is a certain demand for replenishment in the downstream, which mainly focuses on replenishment in the market, and the market is more favorable. Under the mentality of buying up but not buying down in the downstream, it is more active to enter the market, and the market supply exceeds the demand, and the price continuously rises to May 19.

However, the rise did not run through the whole may, and the dimethyl ether market began to decline significantly on the 19th. The recent offer of raw material methanol market is lower, and the trading is weak, which brings no support to dimethyl ether. In the early stage, as the price continued to rise, the resistance of the downstream to high prices increased, and the enthusiasm for entering the market weakened. With the end of replenishment, most of them withdrew from the market to wait and see, and the overall transaction atmosphere of the market was general. Finally, on the demand side, due to the rising weather and temperature, limited terminal demand, and the lengthening of downstream replenishment cycle, the market is obviously restrained, the manufacturers’ shipment is hindered, the inventory is increased, and the main reason is that the goods are delivered with more profits. There were many negative factors, and the price of dimethyl ether continued to fall.

The cost of methanol market rose first and then decreased in May, and dimethyl ether was greatly affected by raw materials. On May 31, Shandong methanol Lubei market had no obvious deal yet, most of them were waiting for methanol plants in Northwest China to bid, mainly on the sidelines. Methanol market negotiation price in southern Shandong fell 50-60 yuan / ton to 2560-2570 yuan / ton in cash. Linyi received the local goods to negotiate the price to 2540-2560 yuan / ton and sent them to cash exchange. The logistics goods offer price is chaotic. Futures down, most of the downstream wait-and-see, general negotiations. The mainstream transaction price of Linfen in Shanxi Province dropped by 30 yuan / ton to 2370-2400 yuan / ton in cash; Changzhi area offline price to 2500 yuan / ton factory cash; The mainstream transaction price in Jincheng area was stable at 2400 yuan / ton in cash.

At present, the trend of raw methanol market is weak, and the civil LPG market is supported by the rise of CP in June. Although there are different degrees of rise in various regions, the rise is limited. On the supply side, as of the end of May, the operating rate of dimethyl ether Market was about 13.5%, down from last month. On the demand side, as the weather temperature rises, the traditional off-season is coming, the terminal demand slows down, and the replenishment cycle in the downstream is lengthened. On the whole, the negative side of dimethyl ether Market is more than the positive side. It is expected that the dimethyl ether market will continue to be weak in June and mainly decline.

The system of business society commodity index shows that the natural rubber commodity index on May 30 was 38.88, which was flat with yesterday, down 61.12% from the peak of 100.00 (2011-09-01) in the cycle, up 42.52% from the lowest point of 27.28 on April 02, 2020（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now

Figure 2: trend chart of main price of natural rubber in May 2021

Data monitoring shows that in May 2021, the domestic total latex Market of natural rubber increased slightly and continued to fluctuate and weaken: the mainstream reported 13407.5 yuan / ton on the first day, 12850 yuan / ton on 31, and 4.16% monthly; Among them, the highest report this month is 14040 yuan / ton, the lowest is 12777 yuan / ton, and the maximum amplitude is 8.99%. The main factors that affect the weakening of the market are the gradual increase of production, insufficient demand and low operating rate.

From the perspective of new rubber output, the main production area of natural rubber in China is normally opened and cut, and the supply pressure is increasing; Among them, the new rubber volume in Yunnan production area is slow to market but the increasing trend of production is established. Affected by the decrease of the starting rate of tire factories, the order of new factories in Hainan is not good, the market is weak and the cost support is weakened. Globally, the latest report released by ANRPC shows that the global production of gum increased 22.5% to 903000 tons in April 2021. Among them, Thailand increased 26.5%, Indonesia increased by 2.8%, Vietnam increased by 100%, Malaysia increased by 9.8%. In April, the global consumption of gum increased 15.1% to 1.219 million tons. Among them, China increased 9.2%, India increased 915%, Thailand fell 2.4%, Malaysia increased by 15.8%. Among them, Thailand, the main producer, increased its exports 34 percent year on year in April, and 20 percent on month. Thailand’s exports are under the trend. Driven by strong growth in the first four months, it is expected that the export growth in May and June will reach double digits. The Thai Association of ship exporters has more firmly confidence in achieving the goal of 4% increase in the whole year, emphasizing that the global economic recovery played a key role in it. Malaysia announced a comprehensive blockade across the country from 1 to 14 June. But during this period, only 17 basic services are allowed to operate. These include transportation (land, water or air); Port, shipyard and airport services and operations (including loading, barge, cargo handling and storage or packaging of goods); Communications (media, telecommunications and the Internet, postal and express, and broadcasting for the purpose of information transmission). The country’s security minister said it would also be allowed to operate rubber plantations and commodity sectors and their supply chains, including trucks transporting rubber. In addition, rubber gloves are allowed to operate at 60% of the workforce capacity and cars (vehicles and parts) are allowed to operate with 10 percent of the workforce.

From downstream demand, from the tire manufacturer’s situation, may is the traditional supply peak of tires. According to the data statistics, the starting rate of the manufacturers in this month is in a decline state compared with the previous month, and the decline rate is beyond expectation. As of May 20, the start rate of all steel tire enterprises was 62.52%, the weekly ratio decreased by 6.08%, and the weekly year-on-year decrease was 2.83%; The starting rate of semi steel tire enterprises is 60.98%, the ratio of cycle to ring is down by 3.75%, and the weekly year-on-year decrease is 2.27%. According to the automobile data, the production and sales of China’s automobile in April respectively completed 2234000 and 225.22 million vehicles, with a 9.3% and 10.8% decrease on a year-on-year basis, with a year-on-year increase of 6.3% and 8.6%. From January to April, the total automobile production and sales respectively completed 8.586 million and 8.748 million vehicles, respectively, with an increase of 53.4% and 51.8% respectively. The growth rate fell 28.3 percentage points and 23.8 percentage points from January to March. Compared with the same period in 2019, the production and sales increased by 2.1% and 4.5% respectively, which was 2.1% and 2.9% higher than that in January to March. According to the data of commercial vehicles, the domestic commercial vehicles production and sales in January to April respectively completed 1918000 and 1956000 vehicles, with 47% increase and 47.3% respectively. However, the growth rate of commercial vehicle production and sales in April fell to 1.2% and 2.3% year on year, and demand support was weakened. Foreign: Vietnam: according to the statistics of the General Administration of Customs of the country, the export volume of Vietnamese rubber reached 674million US dollars (4.32 billion yuan) in the first quarter of 2021, an increase of 103% year-on-year. The average price of rubber exports also Rose 14% in the first quarter, reaching US $1660 / T (10640 yuan / ton). Vietnam Rubber Association official said that the main reason for the increase in latex prices is mainly affected by COVID-19, and the supply of multinational goods is decreasing. Besides China, the US imports more rubber from Vietnam, while imports from Thailand and Indonesia are reduced because Vietnam has enough rubber cutting personnel. This is an opportunity for Vietnam to expand its market and increase its exports.

From the aspect of inventory, the total inventory of the previous period was 179866 tons (+910 tons) as of May 28, and the futures warehouse receipts were 176460 tons (-210). As of May 24, the inventory of Qingdao free trade zone was 98700 tons, a 5.35% decrease on a month-on-month basis; The general trade warehouse has 52.17 tons of inventory, down 3.89% on a month-on-month basis, and continues to go on to the inventory removal trend.

From the aspect of import and export, China: according to the data released by the General Administration of Customs on May 7, China imported 577000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) in April 2021, an increase of 15.6% year-on-year. From January to April 2021, China imported 2.367 million tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), an increase of 9.7% compared with 2.588 million tons in the same period in 2020. Cambodia: according to the report issued by the Ministry of agriculture, forestry and fisheries, the export volume of Cambodian rubber in the first four months of this year fell 15% to 61056 tons year on year, compared with 71749 tons in the same period last year. Rubber export revenue reached $99.87 million, up 2.5 percent from $97.43 million last year. C’Ivoire: according to preliminary port data released on May 4, the export volume of Ivorian rubber totaled 24242621 tons in the first quarter of 2021, down about 30% from 346135 tons in the same period in 2020. Vietnam: according to the preliminary data released by the Ministry of industry and trade, the export volume of Vietnamese rubber in April 2021 was about 80000 tons, an increase of 92% year on year; The export amount is about US $143million, an increase of about 169% year on year. The total export of rubber from January to April was about 486000 tons, an increase of about 80% year on year; The total export amount was about 817 million US dollars, an increase of about 112% year-on-year. Thailand: according to the world daily report of Thailand, rubber export industry recently revealed that the trend of rubber export in 2021 has greatly improved. According to the latest data of the Ministry of Commerce, the rubber export volume in March was 349000 tons, up 65.5%, with a value of 587million US dollars, an increase of 109.2%. In the first quarter, the export volume of rubber was 870000 tons, up 10.7%, valued at $1.44 billion, up 38.1%. Especially in China, the demand is the first, accounting for 32% of the export share and 17% of the rubber demand; Secondly, the market of Malaysia, Japan and the United States has increased in demand; India’s market demand increased by 127 per cent and rubber products by 32.5 per cent.

From the perspective of industry hot spots, first, the core shortage is serious: due to the shortage of global chip supply chain, Thai media reported on May 9 that the output of Thai cars will be reduced by 40000 vehicles in 2021 year-on-year, and the automobile manufacturers must adjust the chip supply structure to meet the long-term demand. Since the end of 2020, the global automotive industry has been facing the shortage of micro controller, which is an important component of the chip, especially the electronic components used to control the operation of vehicle driving assist system and airbag system, which has caused many automobile manufacturers in many regions of the world to interrupt their production. Secondly, on May 25, the U.S. Ministry of Commerce released the final results of anti-dumping of semi steel tyres imported from Korea, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam. The final result of this year is generally better than that of last year. Among them, the region with the most obvious drop is Taiwan, China. A small number of brands have increased their “double reverse” tax, but the increase is small. Compared with the preliminary results of last year, the anti-dumping duties of Linglong tire and Zhengxin tire have been reduced. Among them, Zhengxin tire fell by more than 61%. The final result of the round is the same as the preliminary one, and the export market of the United States is not affected by the “double counter”. Third, the problem of core shortage affects the global automobile industry. Since the end of 2020, the global automobile industry has been facing the shortage of micro controller, an important component in the chip, especially the electronic components used to control the operation of vehicle driving assist system and airbag system, which has caused many automobile manufacturers in many regions of the world to interrupt production. The governments of major auto manufacturers such as the United States, Japan and Germany actively negotiate with chip manufacturers to speed up the production of automotive chips will help to alleviate the global chip shortage in the second half of the year. However, in the long run, the solution to the structural problems of the supply chain of automotive chips will still be the main challenge for automobile manufacturers.

On the back market, the business agency analysis shows that the natural rubber is in the normal supply period of new rubber. Although the supply of glue is slow, it is certain that the supply end pressure is expected to increase in June; At the same time, the domestic production area factory order situation is not good, the new glue price has been reduced; The operating rate of downstream tire enterprises continued to decline, and their purchasing demand for rubber decreased due to the decline of tire market demand; At present, the domestic natural rubber inventory is at a low level, and the market expects that the import volume will be low. The supply of new rubber continues to increase, the downstream construction continues to decline, the natural rubber support is not strong, the possibility of medium-term weak is relatively large, and the short-term natural rubber interval is likely to fluctuate slightly.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business news agency’s block list, the price of toluene continued to decline this week. On May 23, the price of toluene was 5926 yuan / ton; On Sunday (May 30), the price was 5800 yuan / ton, down 126 yuan / ton or 2.13% from last week; It was 59.35% higher than that of the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

Domestic market, spot market demand weak, lack of guidance on the floor, weak market. In terms of external market, Asia’s external market was weak. As of May 28, the price of imported toluene from South Korea was 740 US dollars / ton, down 27 US dollars / ton, or 3.52%, compared with May 21; The price of imported toluene in East China was 762 US dollars / ton, down 27 US dollars / ton, or 3.42%, on May 21.

In terms of crude oil, the resumption of Iran’s crude oil exports may be delayed, the recovery of market demand for crude oil is promising, and the US Gulf of Mexico oil field may be closed due to the storm, which boosted the rise of oil prices. However, the severe epidemic situation in India still restricts the recovery of demand. Brent rose $2.62/barrel, or 3.92%, on May 21; WTI rose $2.52 per barrel, or 3.96%.

Downstream: in terms of TDI, the price of East China TDI stopped falling and rose. Domestic products were priced at 14200 yuan / ton, up 1.43% over last week and 27.93% over the same period last year. At present, the domestic market is weak, the atmosphere in the market is light, the offer of the goods holder is stable, the price is down, and the purchasing enthusiasm of the downstream is general.

In the PX market, the domestic PX price remained stable this week, at 6400 yuan / ton, up 56.1% year on year. As of May 28, closing prices in Asia were 826-828 USD / T FOB Korea and 844-846 USD / T CFR China.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts from the chemical branch of business society think: first, look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of oil drilling platforms in the United States, and weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the global epidemic on crude oil demand, the recovery of the industrial chain, the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States, and the progress of the fiscal stimulus plan. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, China and the United States, the progress of new technology, the dollar index and stock market linkage.

The crude oil market is full of uncertainty, the downstream follow-up is general, some downstream devices are overhauled, and the demand is weak. Toluene market has a negative attitude and may continue to decline in the short term. We will continue to pay attention to the impact of crude oil and gasoline blending price trend, toluene plant maintenance trends, toluene’s late arrival in Hong Kong and downstream demand changes on toluene price.

Trade name: NBR

Latest price (May 31): 20800 yuan / ton

Analysis points: according to the monitoring of business society, the domestic NBR price was 20800 yuan / ton on the 31st, which was stable. The price of raw butadiene has rebounded sharply since May and cost side support. According to the business society, the price of butadiene as of May 31 was 7378 yuan / ton, up 8.71% from 6787 yuan / ton in early May. In addition, the downstream products industry demand is general, the high price goods inquiry is rare, the merchant offer is relatively low, and the price of individual goods source is slightly tight. According to the business agency, on the 31st, the mainstream report of domestic Lanhua nitrile 3308 was 21000 yuan / ton, that of nantityane 1052 was 22000 yuan / ton, and that of lg6250 in South Korea was 20000 yuan / ton, and that of Russia 3365 was 18400 yuan / ton.

Post market forecast: the rising of raw materials has some support, but the overall demand of downstream does not change much, and it is expected that NBR will be stable in the later period.