“Aluminum price” creates new heights

In mid and late April, the spot price of domestic standard aluminum ingots kept rising, breaking through 18000 yuan / ton, reaching new highs.

According to the data of business news agency, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China market in April 30 was 18850 yuan / ton, reaching a new high in nearly a decade. In April alone, aluminum prices rose 9.11% in a single month.

Two rounds of policy superposition industry capacity ceiling basically formed

In 2017, affected by the supply side reform policy, the backward production capacity of electrolytic aluminum was gradually withdrawn from the historical stage by replacement or elimination, and the ceiling Market of electrolytic aluminum compliance capacity was initially estimated at about 44 million tons.

According to the news in early April 2021, the relevant departments of the state have studied the “implementation plan for carbon peaking in non ferrous metal industry” (hereinafter referred to as the “plan”) and are seeking the opinions of industry associations and enterprises《 The plan initially proposes that the non-ferrous metal industry should strive to achieve the peak carbon by 2025 and reduce carbon by 40% by 2040, which will be at least five years ahead of the national peak carbon. ”

The aluminum industry has reached the peak carbon target, which has a significant impact on the new capacity and the existing capacity layout. The market expects that the “ceiling” of electrolytic aluminum compliance capacity of 45 million tons will gradually form.

Judging from the spot price history of aluminum ingots, the price of aluminum ingot is affected by the supply side reform factors. After reaching the high point in the second half of 2017, it gradually entered the downlink period, from the wave band of 16000 yuan / ton above September 2017, and the lowest position appeared in the collapse period caused by COVID-19 in 2020. The aluminum price once fell to 11200 yuan / ton, and then rebounded to 14000-15000 yuan / ton. In the last ten days of November 2020, the aluminum price will continue to strengthen again, breaking through the high level in 2017, opening a new situation of repeatedly reaching new highs. Although there was a short-term correction, with the influence of the policy news of carbon peak and carbon neutral, and the macro favorable factors such as the inflation expectation in the capital market, the commodity price was more emotional, and the aluminum price was rising.

The long-term trend of aluminum price is as follows:

Rising demand expectations

In the first quarter of 2021, China’s aluminum production increased by 13.89 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 31.1%. In March, China’s total aluminum output was 5.367 million tons, up 17.6% year on year.

Looking forward to the second quarter, the market expects that domestic aluminum ingot consumption demand will continue to improve seasonally. First, the overseas market, European and American manufacturing industry continued to recover, and the demand for industrial products recovered. Since April, Europe and Alcoa have reached the highest levels since June 2019 and may 2018 respectively; Second, according to the social inventory data of the domestic market in April, the current destocking is obvious, and the total inventory is at a low level in the same period of recent years. Under the influence of supply constraints, the supply in the spot market is tightening, and the expectation is strengthened.

Recent rising logic

The rise of the market in April is mainly based on three factors:

First, the supply side capacity “ceiling” is expected to be strengthened. Due to the impact of carbon peaking and carbon neutralization, the new capacity of aluminum industry has been restricted in recent years. The market expects that the policy requirements or strict control of electrolytic aluminum capacity of 45 million tons “ceiling” will be implemented. Recently, Guizhou, Shandong and other places have banned illegal new capacity projects in electrolytic aluminum industry, and the new capacity is limited.

Second, the demand side of aluminum consumer side support is strong, aluminum social inventory is relatively low year on year.

Third, the positive macro aspects such as inflation expectations in the capital market have boosted the dominance of the financial attributes of commodities.

Future forecast

To sum up, under the high price and high profit, the current domestic electrolytic aluminum plants are basically in full production status, and the operating rate growth space is limited. Under the domestic carbon neutral target, with the implementation of China’s aluminum industry to accelerate the carbon peak target and the promotion of the local government’s “double control” policy of energy consumption, as a high-energy consumption industry, the electrolytic aluminum production capacity and output will be limited. Recently, the domestic aluminum ingot inventory turned into a downward trend, and the traditional consumption peak season gradually appeared, which strongly supported the aluminum price.

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate market fell slightly in April. By the end of the month, the market price of ammonium nitrate was 2980 yuan / ton, 1.0% lower than the price of 3010 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and 29.57% higher than the same period last year.

In April, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate Market dropped slightly. The domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers’ devices operated stably. Recently, the supply of goods on the site was normal, the goods on the site were in general, the manufacturers’ inventory increased, and the prices on the site dropped slightly. In the near future, the shipping market of ammonium nitrate manufacturers is general, and the downstream is purchased on demand. In the near future, the trend of nitro compound fertilizer in the downstream is stable. There are still more production stoppages in the domestic downstream civil explosive industry, and the domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers start to work normally. The market price of ammonium nitrate declines slightly. Up to now, the mainstream of negotiation in Shaanxi is 2800-2900 yuan / ton, that in Shandong is 2300-2400 yuan / ton, and that in Hebei is 3000-3300 yuan / ton.

The price trend of domestic concentrated nitric acid rose sharply in April. By the end of the month, the average price of domestic nitric acid was 2300 yuan / ton, up 12.50% from 2050 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. The price of Xinghua is 2150 yuan / ton; Anhui Jinhe quoted 2300 yuan / ton; Shandong helitai quoted 2400 yuan / ton. Recently, the domestic nitric acid plant has been running stably, the supply of concentrated nitric acid market is normal, and the delivery of goods in the market has improved. The price trend of nitric acid market has risen sharply in April, and the price of raw nitric acid has risen, forming a certain positive support for the ammonium nitrate Market, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate Market has a limited decline.

In April, the price of domestic liquid ammonia in the upstream market declined slightly. By the end of the month, the price of liquid ammonia was 3890 yuan / ton, down 1.19% from 3926.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of domestic liquid ammonia Market in various regions decreased slightly, mainly due to the increase of supply. Some maintenance devices in Henan, Hubei and Hunan were restarted, and the spot goods on the site increased. The pressure of domestic liquid ammonia supply and demand was not great, and some large factories resumed work. The contradiction of tight supply was eased, and the demand remained stable. In addition, the inventory pressure of goods source in Shandong area is acceptable, but the area is in the accumulation stage, the liquid ammonia discharged by manufacturers is moderate, and the overall inventory pressure of the area is stable. A small decline in the price of upstream liquid ammonia has a negative impact on the ammonium nitrate Market, and the market price of ammonium nitrate has dropped slightly.

In the near future, the demand of downstream civil explosive industry is general, and the market demand for ammonium nitrate is normal, but the price of raw material market is high, which has a certain supporting role for the ammonium nitrate Market. The ammonium nitrate analysts of business community think that the price of ammonium nitrate Market is stable in the later stage.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business club’s block list, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price rose continuously in the first ten days of this month, and fell sharply in the second ten days. The price at the beginning of the month is the monthly low price, 7944 yuan / ton, and 8046 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 1.28%; April 24 is the monthly high price, 8619 yuan / ton, the monthly amplitude is 8.49%.

2、 Analysis and comment

According to the price chart of the business association, the price of propylene decreased sharply in the second half of March and rose at the end of the month. At the beginning of April, the market price rose slowly, with an average daily increase of about 50 yuan / ton. The price rose steadily on the 6th, rose steadily at the rate of 50 yuan / ton on the 16th, stabilized on the 23rd, fell about 50 yuan / ton on the 26th, fell about 150 yuan / ton on the 27th and 28th, and dropped 150-350 yuan / ton on the 29th. Today, most of the prices are stable, The current market turnover is between 8000-8600 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 8000 yuan / ton. On April 20, the external market of propylene in the United States dropped significantly again, which may have a certain impact on the domestic market. Asian propylene prices remained stable on the 29th, with limited impact on the propylene market. Propylene market is now no pressure inventory, part of the device is still in repair. The supply of goods in Shandong is a little tight.

Recently, the international crude oil market has witnessed constant events, and the price has fluctuated. The crude oil price rose significantly on April 28 and 29, which has a certain positive impact on the propylene market.

This month, PP declined slightly and then rebounded slightly, with a monthly decline of 3.34% and a monthly amplitude of 4.80%, which had little negative impact on propylene.

Acrylic acid rebounded after a decline this month, with a monthly decline of only 1.92% and a monthly amplitude of 8.31%.

In the first ten days of this month, propylene oxide was mainly stable, occasionally declined and then recovered. In the last ten days, it rose, with a monthly increase of 3.28% and a monthly amplitude of 5.98%, which had a slightly positive impact on propylene.

The epichlorohydrin market was stable in the first ten days of this month, rose sharply in the middle of this month, and fell steadily in the last ten days, with a monthly increase of 19.47% and a monthly amplitude of 30.00%, which played an obvious role in the rise of propylene.

In the first half of this month, the domestic n-butanol price was generally stable with occasional decline, and rose steadily in the second half of this month, with a monthly increase of 18.18% and a monthly amplitude of 23.81%, which had a great positive impact on the propylene market.

This month, the trend of ISO octanol is similar to that of n-butanol. It is also stable in the first half of the month, with occasional decline. It rises steadily in the second half of the month, with a monthly increase of 13.30% and a monthly amplitude of 17.36%. It also has a certain positive impact on propylene.

Isopropanol rose steadily after falling back in the first ten days of this month, with a monthly rise of 3.35% and a monthly amplitude of 5.30%, which had little positive effect on propylene.

The price of phenol in East China rose by 4.45% this month, which had a slight positive effect on propylene.

The quotation of acetone manufacturers in East China market fell slightly, with a monthly decline of 5.17%, which had a small negative impact on propylene.

3、 Future forecast

Propylene analysts from the chemical branch of business society think: Generally speaking, there are not many domestic stocks, some units are overhauled, the crude oil market is rising significantly, the downstream operating rate is acceptable, and the market is more than empty. Polypropylene futures are general. It is expected that propylene will stop falling after May day, and there is a possibility of stopping falling and rising.