1、 Price data

As of May 23, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic refining naphtha was 6662.50 yuan / ton, down 1.08% compared with 6735.00 yuan / ton on May 17. The actual transaction price of refining naphtha was about 6700 yuan / ton.

As of May 23, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic Di refined straight run naphtha was 6445.00 yuan / ton, down 1.45% compared with 6540.00 yuan / ton on May 17. The actual transaction price of Di refined straight run naphtha was about 6450 yuan / ton.

On May 23, the naphtha commodity index was 82.23, unchanged from yesterday, down 19.87% from 102.62 (2012-09-24), the highest point in the cycle, and up 94.67% from 42.24, the lowest point on July 19, 2016（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2012 to now

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The price of local refining naphtha continued to fall this week. Affected by the policy, the price rose on Monday. The international crude oil fell sharply this week, and the naphtha market fell back.

Upstream: the sharp drop in international oil prices is mainly due to the market’s concern that the surge of new cases in Asia will further depress the demand for crude oil, as well as the new progress of the US Iran nuclear agreement to release the expectation of increased supply; In addition, the probability of US inflation causing the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates increases.

Downstream: according to the monitoring of business news agency, the price of toluene rose first and then fell. On May 16, the price of toluene was 5986.2 yuan / ton, and on May 23, it was 5926 yuan / ton, down 0.5%. This week, the price of mixed xylene rose first and then fell. On May 16, the price of mixed xylene was 5990 yuan / ton, and on May 23, the price was 5960 yuan / ton, down 30 yuan / ton or 0.5% from last week. In the PX market, the domestic PX price remained stable this week, at 6400 yuan / ton. Recently, the domestic PTA market price has fallen sharply, and the downstream market is not good, which has a negative impact on the PX market.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business community, in the 20th week of 2021 (5.17-5.21), there are 5 kinds of commodities in the energy sector that have increased month on month, including 1 kind of commodity that has increased by more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were coke (5.59%), petroleum coke (3.06%) and coking coal (2.92%). A total of 11 kinds of commodities decreased month on month, and 3 kinds of commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 18.8% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three declining products were liquefied natural gas (- 7.60%), WTI crude oil (- 5.25%), Brent crude oil (- 5.24%). This week’s average rise or fall was – 1.04%.

3、 Future forecast

Energy analysts of business news agency believe that the sharp decline of international crude oil has aggravated the wait-and-see mood of naphtha market, but it just needs support, and it is expected that the naphtha market will rise in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business society, domestic maleic anhydride market price fell this week, and the average price of maleic anhydride by May 23 remained at about 11250 yuan / ton, down 3.43% from 11650 yuan / ton on May 14, down 0.88% compared with the same period last month.

The maleic anhydride commodity index was 105.98 on May 23, which was flat with yesterday, down 14.30% from the highest point 123.67 in the cycle (December 26, 2017), up 107.07% from the lowest point of 51.18 on April 14, 2020（ Note: the cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The domestic benzene maleic anhydride market started to start a small decline this week. The international crude oil fell sharply, leading to the decline of chemical products price; The downstream unsaturated resin has a stable start rate, and the resin market is weak and needs to be purchased. As of 23 days, about 10500 yuan / ton of solid anhydrides in Shandong Province, 11500 yuan / ton of liquid anhydrides in Jiangsu Province, 10600 yuan / ton of solid anhydrides in Shanxi, 10600 yuan / ton of solid anhydrides in Hebei Province, 11000 yuan / ton of solid anhydrides in South China.

Upstream, the price of pure benzene fell continuously this week, with the average price of pure benzene of 8230 yuan / ton on May 16 and 8080 yuan / ton on May 23, down 150 yuan / T, or 1.82% from last week. This week, the market price of hydrobenzene in Shandong Province was down, which was 8200 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, 7900 yuan / ton at the weekend, down 300 yuan / ton. The price of n-butane is down, and Shandong price is 4300 yuan / ton.

According to the price monitoring of business agency, there are 24 commodities rising in the chemical industry sector in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 20th week of 2021 (5.17-5.21), of which more than 5% of the commodities are 1, accounting for 1.1% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top 3 commodities were yellow phosphorus (6.99%), caprolactam (2.92%), polysilicon (2.89%). There are 36 commodities falling on the same month, 6 commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 6.5% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The first three products were isooctanol (-12.97%), isopropanol (-8.49%), n-butanol (industrial grade) (-8.08%). This week, the average rise and fall was -0.67%.

3、 Post market forecast

According to the analysts of maleic anhydride products of business society, the international crude oil sharp decline aggravates the wait-and-see mentality of maleic anhydride market, the difference between supply and demand in maleic anhydride market is aggravating, the main factories have limited volume, the downstream just needs to purchase mainly, the available goods in the site are less, the maleic anhydride price is weak, and the downstream wait-seeing sentiment is strong, and it is expected that the price of maleic anhydride will be weak in the near future.

1、 Price data

According to the data from the business club, the price of petroleum coke products from domestic refineries continued to rise. The average price of petroleum coke in Shandong market on May 23 was 2358.67 yuan / ton, up 3.06% from 2288.67 yuan / ton on May 17. On May 23, the petroleum coke commodity index was 183.45, which was the same as that of yesterday, reaching a record high in the cycle, up 174.26% from the lowest point of 66.89 on March 28, 2016（ Note: period refers to the period from September 30, 2012 to now

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the storage of local refined petroleum coke was low, and the price continued to rise. The downstream demand of low sulfur coke was poor, and the price fell slightly. Aluminum enterprises have good profits, some refineries have been overhauled, and supply and demand have double effects. The price of medium and high sulfur coke continues to rise.

Upstream: the sharp drop in international oil prices is mainly due to the market’s concern that the surge of new cases in Asia will further depress the demand for crude oil, as well as the new progress of the US Iran nuclear agreement to release the expectation of increased supply; In addition, the probability of US inflation causing the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates increases.

Downstream: the downstream demand of carbon enterprises is stable, and the market price is stable, but the rising price of raw materials puts pressure on the cost of carbon enterprises; The price of calcined coke was basically stable; This week, the price of electrolytic aluminum in the lower reaches fell, reaching 18460.00 yuan / ton as of May 23; Recently, the silicon metal market is greatly affected by the factors of supply and demand. The relationship between supply and demand is unbalanced, and the short-term silicon price is still strong.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business community, in the 20th week of 2021 (5.17-5.21), there are 5 kinds of commodities in the energy sector that have increased month on month, including 1 kind of commodity that has increased by more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were coke (5.59%), petroleum coke (3.06%) and coking coal (2.92%). A total of 11 kinds of commodities decreased month on month, and 3 kinds of commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 18.8% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three declining products were liquefied natural gas (- 7.60%), WTI crude oil (- 5.25%), Brent crude oil (- 5.24%). This week’s average rise or fall was – 1.04%.

According to the petroleum coke analysts of business society, the storage of petroleum coke from local refining company is low. At present, the market supply and demand are good, and the price of electrolytic aluminum is still high. It is expected that petroleum coke will be high in the near future.

This week, the price of ethylene oxide was stable, and the mainstream ex factory price of ethylene oxide was 7700 yuan / ton.

As of today, the latest price of ethylene in Northeast Asia is US $1075 per ton, while the latest price of ethylene in Southeast Asia is US $1020 per ton. The main reason for the decline of ethylene price is that the upstream crude oil and naphtha are bearish. In addition, the demand in the region continues to be weak, and the support is weakened. The decline of raw materials causes the mood fluctuation of some downstream enterprises. Although the cost price center began to fall, the price of ethylene is still at a high level, and the non integrated units are still operating near the cost line.

In terms of equipment, Fushun Petrochemical Company is currently under maintenance; The annual capacity of ethylene oxide unit of Shanghai Petrochemical line 2 will be increased to 168000 tons after incremental revamping; The overhaul of Nanjing Dena was postponed to July.

At present, the market is affected by the weak demand, and the overall operation is weak and stable. The supply and demand side is relatively abundant. Manufacturers mainly ship goods. In the short term, there is little chance of reversal when the raw materials are not obviously favorable.

The market is expected to remain weak and stable.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, after half a month of the rise in hydrogen peroxide in April, the weak market started, and the overall rise of hydrogen peroxide in April was 3.22%. After May 1, the trend of hydrogen peroxide continued to decline. Since May 11, the terminal rigid demand increased, and the hydrogen peroxide started to rise. As of May 21, the average price of hydrogen peroxide market was 1120 yuan / ton, up more than 10%.

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of hydrogen peroxide in business agency from February 22 to May 16, 2021, it can be seen that after the Spring Festival, the hydrogen peroxide market has weakened, with a decline of more than 3.6%. Hydrogen peroxide showed a big rise in early March, up more than 5%, after the big rise began to dive, continue the weak market. In April, in the middle of the month, hydrogen peroxide rose again, up more than 5 percent, and it was still a decline after the big rise. After May 1, hydrogen peroxide was in weak operation, and the rising mode was opened in the middle month, rising to May 21, up more than 10%.

On May 21, some domestic hydrogen peroxide manufacturers quoted the following:

The price of hydrogen peroxide in Luxi Chemical Industry is 1080 yuan / ton, which is 130 yuan / ton higher than that in early May; The price of hydrogen peroxide fertilizer in Zhengyuan of Hebei Province is 1060 yuan / ton, and the price increases by 100 yuan / ton; The price of hydrogen peroxide in Quansheng chemical industry in Anhui Province is 1220 yuan / ton, and the price rises by 70 yuan / ton; The price of hydrogen peroxide in Shuangyang high tech chemical industry in Hunan Province is 1200 yuan / ton, which is stable.

Terminal rigidity demand increases the rise of hydrogen peroxide

In mid April, due to the increase of the purchasing demand of terminal paper industry, and the shutdown and maintenance of hydrogen peroxide unit in Quansheng, Anhui Province, the manufacturer, the inventory of hydrogen peroxide manufacturers was low, and the supply was tight, and the factory price was constantly increased. Hydrogen peroxide staged a wave of rise, up half a month, and then gradually callback.

After May 1, the performance of hydrogen peroxide was poor. In the week of May 11, the purchase of hydrogen peroxide terminal paper industry increased, the hydrogen peroxide was again strong, and the rise was restarted. The hydrogen peroxide enterprises kept increasing the factory price. The average price of hydrogen peroxide Market exceeded the 1000 yuan mark, up more than 6%.

In the week of May 18, the terminal rigid demand continued to improve. At the end of the month, Shandong Mingshui chemical industry had a stop plan. Supported by Lido, the price of hydrogen peroxide still kept rising, up more than 10% compared with that on November 11.

On May 21, the price index of hydrogen peroxide and corrugated paper commodity was 157.52, down 0.8 points from yesterday, down 35.97% from 246.00 (2019-10-21) in the cycle, up 46.48% from the lowest point 107.54 on January 29, 2019（ Note: cycle refers to January 1, 2017 to present)

Corrugated paper prices have been stable after May 1 holiday, but with the cancellation of the preferential policy for nine dragon paper industry, the prices of raw paper in some regions have been slightly increased. But recently, with the recent rise of raw material price of waste paper, corrugated paper price has been rising. The paper industry has a high enthusiasm for purchasing hydrogen peroxide, and the hydrogen peroxide market has been improved and continues to rise.

From 16 to 19, the price of raw paper of Jiulong multi base kept sending out the price rise information, which also led to the rise of corrugated paper price of the second and third grade paper factories. Because of the rising of the price of the original paper, the cost of packaging paper enterprises has increased dramatically, and the downstream board factory has issued a notice of price increase many times. At present, box board and corrugated paper have been rising well. Since this month, Jiulong has been up 4 times in a row, and the market is more positive.

Li Bing, an analyst with hydrogen peroxide at the business agency, thinks: hydrogen peroxide manufacturers stop and repair, the demand for end-end paper market increases, and the market price is easy to rise and fall after the hydrogen peroxide is supported by the strong support.

The growth of commercial crude oil stocks in the United States, coupled with the severe epidemic situation in some countries, led to a sharp drop in international oil prices. In addition, the downstream demand is low for several days, and the sales pressure of businesses is increasing, so they have no choice but to open the window of downward adjustment. According to business news agency data, as of May 20, the price of MTBE was 5956 yuan / ton, down 2.39% month on month and up 65.46% year on year.

The market price of MTBE is about 50-150 yuan / ton today. Crude oil has stopped rising and falling, but the market mentality is bad. In addition, gasoline market sales are general, and the demand for raw materials is flat. Although the main refineries in Shandong are overhauled, the demand in the area is general and the market is not easy to rise or fall. In the southern market, recently, the imported goods have come to Hong Kong one after another, and the supply is relatively abundant, but the demand is flat, and the merchants are slow in shipping.

In terms of external market, as of May 20, the FOB Gulf price of the United States closed at US $788.63-788.99/t, down by US $20.91/t, the FOB ara price of Europe closed at US $720-720.5/t, down by US $24 / T, and the FOB Singapore price of Asia closed at US $725-727 / t, down by US $6 / T.

region ., Country. Closing price. Up and down

Asia FOB Singapore 725-727 USD / T – US $6 / T

U.S.A FOB Bay 788.63-788.99 USD / T – US $20.91/t

Europe FOB ARA 720-720.5 USD / T – US $24 / T

In the near future, it is difficult to change the flat demand situation, and the market will continue to be in the transition of consolidation. Business community MTBE analysts believe that the domestic MTBE market in the short term mainly narrow consolidation.

According to the monitoring sample data of the business agency, as of May 19, the average price of melamine enterprises was 14400 yuan / ton, down 5.47% compared with last Wednesday (May 12), up 14.29% compared with the beginning of the month, and up 42.34% compared with April 19.

Melamine prices rose to a high pressure after the fall opened

In recent months, the price of melamine has continued to rise, with a rapid rise in April and a new high in May. With the price rising to a high point, the undertaking capacity of downstream enterprises at a high level has been continuously reduced, the follow-up of new domestic trade orders is insufficient, the pressure on high market shipment is heavy, the price of melamine is loose, and the focus of negotiation is low. At present, the operating rate of melamine is relatively high, and with the decline of price, Under the mentality of buying up instead of buying down, the wait-and-see mood is getting stronger, and the purchase is just needed.

Upstream urea, May 19, Shandong urea market rose. On the demand side, the demand for agriculture has increased; Affected by the mentality of buying up but not buying down, the downstream compound fertilizer and rubber sheet factories took goods actively, and the new orders of enterprises followed up well. Supply side: some urea plants shut down for maintenance, and the supply side is tightened. Enterprises have a strong attitude of supporting prices.

Melamine analysts of business news agency believe that, in general, there is a certain support on the cost side, but the demand side is not good. Melamine may continue the weak market in the short term, and it is more likely that the focus of market negotiation will continue to decline.

1、 Price trend:

According to the data of the large list of business agencies, the domestic PA6 market was positive in the early May, with spot prices rising significantly. As of May 18, the main offer price of sample enterprises for Zhongwei 2.75-2.85 was about 15666.67 yuan / ton, a 5.62% increase compared with the average price at the beginning of the month, with a 37.83% increase year on year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors:

The domestic spot market in the upstream caprolactam is strong in recent years. As of May 18, Nanjing Oriental caprolactam liquid price is 15000 yuan / ton, and the unit load of 400000 tons / year is 8500. The liquid price of Baling Hengyi caprolactam is 14700 yuan / ton, and the 450000 T / a unit is normally started and accepted to be delivered. The price of caprolactam liquid of Baling Petrochemical is 14700 yuan / ton, and the 300000 t / a unit is normally started and accepted to be delivered. The price of caprolactam liquid in Shandong Luxi Chemical Industry is 13800 yuan / ton, the factory has a capacity of 300000 tons, and the unit is in normal production. The price of pure benzene, the direct raw material, will stabilize after rising, and will benefit the cost side of caprolactam. It is expected that the market will gradually stabilize in the near future and enter the high level to sort out the market.

The trend of caprolactam is strong, and the cost side support of PA6 is rising. Last month, PA6 spot market continued to fall for more than a month, and the market of this round continued to stop falling and rebound at the end of April. Currently, PA6 prices follow up upstream raw materials, downstream factories are cautious in purchasing and follow-up. The transaction on the site is weak, and the actual delivery and investment are mostly small orders. The price of engineering materials is slightly higher than other materials. Although caprolactam is also rising in slicing, the profit situation of polymerization plant may be difficult to open the negative profit situation which has been maintained before. The overall commencement rate of the industry is about 70%.

3、 Post market forecast:

Analysts from business society believe that the upstream caprolactam market of PA6 in the first half of May was stronger, and PA6 was passively rising due to cost support. The willingness to purchase PA6 downstream plants is still weak, and the end-users are mainly cautious and demand continues to weaken. In general, although PA6 is in the rising market, the accumulation of cost pressure and the poor profit of the industry are continuously hindering the domestic PA6 market. PA6 prices are expected to increase only if they are limited.

Recovery of cobalt Market

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the domestic cobalt market rebounded from the bottom in May, and the cobalt price rose slightly. As of May 17, the price of cobalt was 353000.00 yuan / ton, up 2.32% from 345000.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (May 1); Compared with the cobalt price of 341666.66 yuan / ton on May 7, the price increased by 3.32%. Cobalt price bottomed out and rebounded.

Domestic mobile phone market

According to the data released by China Academy of information technology, from January to April 2021, the total domestic mobile phone market shipment reached 125 million units, a year-on-year increase of 38.4%. The domestic mobile phone market rose sharply, but compared with the sharp rise of 92.8%, 240.9% and 65.9% in the first three months, the overall domestic mobile phone shipment turned to a year-on-year decline of 34.1% in April. Although we bid farewell to the growth of shipment volume, the proportion of 5g mobile phone shipment volume still increased steadily, reaching a new high of 77.9% in April. In the first quarter of 2021, the domestic smartphone shipment has increased. In the first quarter of 2020, China is in the period of strictly controlling the epidemic situation. In April 2020, there will be a retaliatory rebound in mobile phone consumption. The decline of smart phones in April 2021 is more a reflection of the slowdown in consumer demand. In the future, the sales of mobile phones slowed down, the demand of cobalt Market decreased, and the rising power of cobalt Market weakened.

Global mobile phone sales pick up

According to the report of global mobile phone shipment volume in the first quarter of 2021 released by strategy analytics, a statistical agency, the global smart phone shipment volume in the first quarter of 2021 was 340 million, an increase of 24% over the same period last year, reaching a new high since 2015. According to the data released by DIGITIMES research, the global smartphone shipment in 2020 will be 1.24 billion units, 8.8% lower than that in 2019. In the first quarter of 2021, the sales volume increased greatly, mainly due to the healthy demand momentum and the strong promotion of 5g by Chinese manufacturers. However, the mobile phone market in the future is affected by the epidemic situation in India, and the sales volume of the mobile phone market in the first quarter of 2020 will drop sharply due to the epidemic situation. The growth of the mobile phone market is limited, and the driving force of the sales volume of the mobile phone market in the future is limited.

Market Overview

Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at business news agency, believes that mobile phone sales rose sharply in the first quarter, and domestic cobalt market demand rose, stimulating domestic cobalt prices to rise. However, the growth momentum of mobile phone market in the future is insufficient. It is expected that the demand of cobalt market will decline in the future. The rising momentum of cobalt market is insufficient, and the downward pressure still exists. Cobalt price is expected to rebound slightly in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business news agency’s block list, the price of pure benzene stabilized after rising this week. On May 9, the price of pure benzene was 7600-7853 yuan / ton (average price 7720 yuan / ton), and on Sunday (May 16), the price of pure benzene was 8150-8300 yuan / ton (average price 8230 yuan / ton), with an average price of 510 yuan / ton, or 6.61%, higher than last week; It was 148.64% higher than that of the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

In the early stage, the external price was high, the spot supply in the domestic market was tight, and the price of pure benzene was supported. This week, Sinopec’s pure benzene listing price was raised twice, with a total increase of 500 yuan / ton to 8200 yuan / ton. The rapid rise in the price of pure benzene led to increased resistance in the downstream, and the market’s enthusiasm for catching up fell, and the price stabilized in the second half of the week.

In terms of external market, the reference price of pure benzene in South Korea market on Friday (May 14) was 1043.67 US dollars / ton, down 16 US dollars / ton, or 1.51%, from May 7; The import reference price of East China was US $1050 / T, which was the same as that on May 7.

In terms of crude oil, it was reported within the week that the colonial pipeline in the United States was forced to close due to hacker attacks, but the positive impact of the closure was short-lived, and the international oil price fell back after rising. The market is concerned about the impact of the Indian epidemic on demand recovery. On May 7, Brent rose 0.235 USD / barrel, or 0.34%; WTI rose 0.48 USD / barrel, or 0.74%.

Downstream: styrene: styrene rose first and then fell this week. On May 16, the price of sample enterprises was 10150 yuan / ton, up 1.5% compared with last week, and up 92.72% compared with the same period last year. Styrene in the cost support and tight spot supply, driven by the spot to maintain a strong.

Aniline: this week aniline stable price consolidation. Within the week, Huatai plant was restarted and market supply increased. On May 16, the price of aniline in Shandong was 11300-11500 yuan / ton, while that in Nanjing was 11700 yuan / ton, which was the same as last week, up 146.76% over the same period last year.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, the global economy and demand are expected to improve as a whole, and crude oil has an upward momentum. In the future, we will continue to pay attention to the epidemic situation, OPEC + production reduction plan, global economic data and US crude oil inventory data.

Downstream: styrene, the main downstream product: cost side, strong shock of crude oil, tight spot situation of pure benzene is expected to remain unchanged in the short term, and cost support is strong. Some maintenance plants of styrene will resume production next week, and the supply is expected to increase. However, the port still has the expectation of inventory decline next week. The styrene inventory is still at a low level, and the spot circulation is still tight. Therefore, under the support of cost and tight spot supply, the styrene will still fluctuate strongly in the short term.

On the market side, the tight domestic spot supply pattern will continue in the short term. In terms of external market, Europe and the United States will maintain supply tension in the short term, with strong external support. On the downstream side, the excessively fast rising price leads to the compression of downstream profit space and the limitation of chasing up. Overall, the action force of pure benzene is relatively reduced, but the fundamental support still exists. It is expected that the price of pure benzene will be stabilized in the short term. Continue to pay attention to the downstream market (mainly styrene inventory, demand changes), domestic and foreign pure benzene plant trends, crude oil, external market trends on the price of pure benzene.