Commodity index: the PCL commodity index was 92.74 on April 29, which was flat with yesterday, down 14.93% from 109.01 (2019-08-28) in the cycle, up 9.99% from the lowest point of 84.32 on August 18, 2020（ Note: cycle refers to April 1, 2019 to present)

The monitoring shows that since the start of 2021, the solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) of China’s domestic market has declined and continued to weaken after a short-term rise. On February 18, the main domestic mainstream was 1791.67 yuan / ton, and the mainstream quotation on March 30 was 1718.57 yuan / ton, with a decrease of about 4.18%; In April, the main market of polyaluminium chloride in Henan Province of China was slightly fluctuating, with an amplitude of less than 1%, with little change. By April 29, the main quotation was 1717.14 yuan / ton, so far, the overall decline was 4.16%.

Two and a half months later, it is very unstable for the water treatment manufacturers in Henan main production area. Firstly, the demand of the year is slowly restored, and the start-up of the production is also started on land and land; By the end of April, local manufacturers have entered the intermittent and repeated production stop production production partial production stop circle. First, the water treatment manufacturers in Gongyi area of Henan Province basically stopped production and rectification, and by mid April, the manufacturers resumed production on a large scale. During this period, due to the temporary tension of some brands of some manufacturers, the market was slightly increased; After the resumption of production, the manufacturer has sufficient inventory, weak market demand and a slight decrease in the market. Overall, the manufacturers have been repeatedly stopped and produced repeatedly due to strict environmental protection inspection during this period. Some small enterprises are unable to support due to production stoppage and demand. This situation will become more and more obvious with the strict inspection of environmental protection; Production does not forget to keep environmental protection, and the production enterprises have a long way to go.

Industrial chain: in terms of upstream raw materials, the data of business society show that from February 18 to March, the trend of hydrochloric acid in North China rose sharply from February 18 to March, with the mainstream market quotation of 180 yuan / ton on February 18, about 205 yuan / ton on March 22, and nearly 15% monthly increase. After that, the upstream liquid chlorine market rose 17% this month, with strong cost support,; The lower silica support is less than 1% higher than the monthly price fluctuation, the support of ammonium chloride is strong and the monthly rise is 14%. The downstream demand of “Jinsan” hydrochloric acid gradually increases, and the hydrochloric acid fluctuates up 15% in March. On the day of 31, hydrochloric acid rose by more than 40 yuan / ton. In April, hydrochloric acid in North China rose in a volatile manner. On April 1, the main market quotation was 243.33 yuan / ton, and on April 29, it was about 226.67 yuan / ton, falling in a single month, about 6.85%. The upstream liquid chlorine market is generally in general, and the support for hydrochloric acid is weak; However, the monthly price fluctuation of lower silica is less than 1%, and ammonium chloride is down 1.34% this month. The overall high level is consolidation, which is weak for hydrochloric acid. In conclusion, it is estimated that hydrochloric acid is mainly subject to small amplitude of shock in the near future. Since then, the overall increase is nearly 26%.

Secondly, natural gas is used in the production process. In February, the civil gas market in Shandong Province was staged in the Spring Festival, with different trends before and after the festival. Before the festival, the main trend was weak downward, and the post festival market was on a short roller coaster. In March, the LNG market changed its decline and returned to the rising route, and the civil gas market in Shandong Province increased significantly; But in mid March, it began to go down continuously, the rising situation was blocked, and the rebound market was not continued; Since the end of March, the LNG market is dominated by favorable factors and enters the upward channel again. In April, the civil market of liquefied gas continued to rise, and the price rose continuously, especially after the small and long holiday in Qingming, the civil gas market in Shandong began to push up continuously, with a large margin; But in late April, the civil LPG market showed “slide ride”, and the price fell 5-6% and remained stable basically. From the trend chart, it can be seen that the rise in late and early April is significantly different. Although the price is down a part from the early ten days, the current price of Shandong civil gas is relatively high, the downstream market atmosphere has recovered, the manufacturers are smooth to ship, most of the inventory is in controllable level. The market is still in a weak position, and the international crude oil is relatively weak. In addition, the weather temperature increases, and market demand is expected to weaken. According to the data monitoring of business agency, on February 18, the mainstream quotation of LNG Shandong market was 3900 yuan / ton, while that of April 28 daily was about 4173 yuan / ton, up about 15%.

Downstream demand: since then, the downstream demand has been general, not warm or hot. The “carbon peak” and “carbon neutralization” proposed by the two conferences this year have stricter and long-term sustainability requirements for environmental protection of production enterprises in various industries. Chemical enterprises have undergone strict environmental protection inspection, and many industries have stopped production and rectification from time to time. Many enterprises need to rectify. In terms of environmental protection, there should be certain demand for environmental protection products. Water treatment products have their application limitations, The demand for air purification products may be slightly lower than that of atmospheric emission purification products. According to several enterprises, the demand this year has been warm and hot, and the production is constantly suspended and rectified. The pressure of enterprises is relatively high, and some small enterprises may be eliminated.

Post market forecast: business analysis believes that the price of raw materials has been rising in the context of inflation caused by the release of water from the Central Bank of the world. In recent years, the situation of epidemic in some overseas areas is serious, and under the influence of multiple international factors such as Sino US relations, there may be stage differentiation in various industries. For the chemical industry, under the environmental protection policy requirements of “carbon peak” and “carbon neutralization” in 2021, the chemical industry will face strict rectification. With the gradual introduction and implementation of relevant policies, the environmental protection requirements will continue to be strict in the later period, and the technical requirements for relevant enterprises will be raised; Petrochemical enterprises are also facing strict rectification, and the technical threshold is constantly rising; The production stop and rectification action is frequent, and the supply side can not be affected. In the case of large inventory consumption, the price has been expected to rise. In conclusion, in the future market, the price of polychloride will be stable under the condition that the current demand is general and the inventory is sufficient; The long-term environmental inspection will inevitably aggravate the survival of the fittest of production enterprises. Only by improving the technical level as soon as possible and meeting the environmental protection requirements as soon as possible, can enterprises maintain long-term and effective development.

Commodity index: the polyacrylamide commodity index was 94.20 on April 28, which was flat with yesterday, down 12.07% from 107.13 (may 08, 2019), the highest point in the cycle, and 13.64% higher than the lowest point of 82.89 on August 02, 2020（ Note: cycle refers to April 1, 2019 to present)

Data show that since the end of the Spring Festival holiday in 2021, the water treatment manufacturers in Henan main production area will resume production after the year. In the next month, due to the huge increase of acrylonitrile cost, the market of polyacrylamide will go up all the way, with an upward range of more than 10%; At the end of March, it slightly corrected, and the range dropped to within 10%. In the middle of April, the water treatment manufacturers in Henan main production area continued to stop production due to environmental protection inspection started in mid March, and went through the repeated production stoppage and resumption of production intermittently, and finally resumed production in late April. Polyacrylamide has been in a small upward trend since April. The price of polyacrylamide cations in China (molecular weight 12 million and ionic degree 10-30) has been adjusted from 15116.67 yuan / ton to 15416.67 yuan / ton, with a range of 1.98%. Among them, the continuous production of production in the middle of April caused some manufacturers’ shortage of goods. Although the overall inventory is relatively sufficient and the demand is not warm, the local shortage of goods also has a certain impact on the market. The highest price after the year was about 15433 yuan / ton, the lowest point was 13883 yuan / ton when the work was resumed after the year, with a phased increase of 11%.

Upstream raw materials: since February, driven by the rising cost of raw materials and supply shortage, the price of acrylonitrile has been rising all the way, and the domestic price has reached the highest level in nearly five years: the mainstream quotation on February 18 is 12100 yuan / ton, 16500 yuan / ton in March 10 daily, up 4500 yuan / T, with a range of 36%; However, since mid March, influenced by the lower upstream price, the price of the upstream was lowered by 250 yuan / ton on the 15th, the mainstream market quotation was reduced to 16300 yuan / T, and Shanghai Secco cut the price by 300 yuan / T to 16000 yuan / ton on the 26th; In April, the domestic mainstream market price of acrylonitrile continued to decline, and the price remained stable at about RMB 14400 / T at the end of the month, with a downward range of 10%.

Secondly, natural gas is used in the production process. In February, the civil gas market in Shandong Province was staged in the Spring Festival, with different trends before and after the festival. Before the festival, the main trend was weak downward, and the post festival market was on a short roller coaster. In March, the LNG market changed its decline and returned to the rising route, and the civil gas market in Shandong Province increased significantly; But in mid March, it began to go down continuously, the rising situation was blocked, and the rebound market was not continued; Since the end of March, the LNG market is dominated by favorable factors and enters the upward channel again. In April, the civil market of liquefied gas continued to rise, and the price rose continuously, especially after the small and long holiday in Qingming, the civil gas market in Shandong began to push up continuously, with a large margin; But in late April, the civil LPG market showed “slide ride”, and the price fell 5-6% and remained stable basically. From the trend chart, it can be seen that the rise in late and early April is significantly different. Although the price is down a part from the early ten days, the current price of Shandong civil gas is relatively high, the downstream market atmosphere has recovered, the manufacturers are smooth to ship, most of the inventory is in controllable level. The market is still in a weak position, and the international crude oil is relatively weak. In addition, the weather temperature increases, and market demand is expected to weaken. According to the data monitoring of business agency, on February 18, the mainstream quotation of LNG Shandong market was 3900 yuan / ton, while that of April 28 daily was about 4173 yuan / ton, up about 15%.

Downstream demand: from 2021 to now, especially after, from mid February to mid March, the upstream raw material price has greatly increased, and the cost of polyacrylamide increases greatly. The polyacrylamide as downstream products will rise accordingly, and the procurement cost of downstream enterprises will increase greatly, and the procurement will not be active. In the early years, water treatment projects have not been restored, demand is weak, and polyacrylamide market is not good. Although the production period of environmental protection impact is from mid March to mid April, although inventory consumption is consumed, the demand has not changed much; This month, demand is still warm and hot. The change of polyacrylamide market this month is only affected by the inventory of each plant when the production is stopped.

Post market forecast: business community analysis shows that the domestic economy is stable and good at present, but the global macro-economy is affected by more uncertain factors under the influence of the peripheral, especially the recent epidemic has a serious impact on Southeast Asia. In addition to the obvious impact of inflation, the overall demand of overseas markets has weakened, which has a very obvious impact on multi industry, and then transmitted to the production links of multiple industries; Polyacrylamide, as an environmental protection water treatment product, is closely related to the environmental protection requirements of multi industry, and the demand is affected greatly. Secondly, under the national environmental protection objectives and regulatory requirements this year, environmental protection inspection is severe in all regions. Gongyi District, Henan, as the main production area of water treatment products, has also stopped production for rectification for about one month, but the inventory impact is not very large, especially after the resumption of production in the middle of the month, the supply is sufficient; According to the business society, some manufacturers in Gongyi area stop production again due to environmental protection factors, but the production stoppage is only partial. According to the analysis of local senior people, some manufacturers can not support the environmental protection factors, and strict requirements of policies will inevitably optimize the production organization, and some small factories may be eliminated. It is suggested that relevant manufacturers start from the overall situation view, Improve the production technology level as soon as possible, meet the environmental protection requirements, and maintain the long-term survival and development of the enterprise. In the latter market, if the production of related industries is continuously affected, the demand for water treatment projects can not be improved. In the short term, the market is stable, and the demand is still needed to be driven in the medium and long term.

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, as of April 26, the reference ex factory price of domestic industrial grade propylene glycol was 18100 yuan / ton. Compared with April 21 (reference price was 18300 yuan / ton), the average price of domestic industrial grade propylene glycol decreased by 200 yuan / ton, or 1.09%. Compared with April 1 (reference price 15900 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 2200 yuan / ton, or 13.84%.

In April, stimulated by the surge of export orders, the domestic inventory supply of propylene glycol was tight. In the past two weeks, the market price of propylene glycol rose sharply.

Export orders are coming to an end, propylene glycol market has a weakening trend

At the beginning of last week, the market price of propylene glycol rose to a high point. On the 21st, the ex factory price of propylene glycol rose to 18000-18600 yuan / ton, which had increased by 2000-2500 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of this month. The market then entered the consolidation operation. Near the weekend, the export orders of propylene glycol gradually decreased, which was almost at the end of the day. After the export demand weakened, 5. The domestic demand of propylene glycol is hard to maintain the rigid demand, and the propylene glycol market continues to run at a high level. The market situation of propylene glycol is beginning to weaken. Some propylene glycol factories have reduced the ex factory price of propylene glycol by 200-300 yuan / ton. At present, as of the 25th, the average ex factory price of propylene glycol is 18100 yuan / ton, which is 200 yuan / ton lower than that of the 21st, with a decrease of 1.09%, Compared with the price after Qingming Festival (8 days), the average price increased by 2800 yuan / ton, or 18.04% after the festival; Compared with the price at the beginning of the month (1st), the average price increased by 2200 yuan / ton, or 13.84%.

On the upstream side, since last week, the market of propylene oxide has been stable first and then rose. At the beginning of the week, the market has been sorted out by game, mainly by wait-and-see, and the market has been stable. With the decline of factory inventory, the downstream polyether orders have improved, driving the market price up in a narrow range. The propylene oxide manufacturers have no pressure, and the downstream just need to follow up and stabilize, supporting the continuous price rise. On the 26th, the mainstream price of propylene oxide Market in Shandong was around 18300-18500 yuan / ton, and that in East China was around 18500-18700 yuan / ton.

Before labor day, the market of propylene glycol is mostly stable and the adjustment is limited

At present, the inventory of propylene glycol is gradually accumulated in the warehouse, and the factory price adjustment is mostly May 1 to reduce the inventory. In terms of demand, the downstream is not willing to prepare goods before labor day. In terms of raw materials, the cost of propylene glycol and the price of propylene oxide rebounded, and the support for propylene glycol was getting better. Therefore, from these two aspects, business community propylene glycol analysts believe that before labor day, the domestic propylene glycol market price is mainly stable, and the market adjustment is limited.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of April 26, the average ex factory price of acetic acid in East China was 7595.00 yuan / ton, up 22.30% in April. In April, the price of acetic acid rose widely since the Qingming Festival. During the month, some acetic acid plants were shut down for maintenance, and the enterprises were short of inventory. The downstream demand remained strong, the spot supply on the floor continued to be tight, and the quotation of acetic acid went up at a high level. As of April 26, the market price of acetic acid in China is as follows:

region date offer

Shandong Province April 26th 7500-7750 yuan / ton

Jiangsu Province April 26th 7600-7900 yuan / ton

Zhejiang Province April 26th 7700-7900 yuan / ton

Hebei Province April 26th 7500 yuan / ton

Northwest China April 26th 7750 yuan / ton

South China April 26th 7900-8000 yuan / ton

North China April 26th 7330-7800 yuan / ton

The domestic acetic acid market is strong and upward. After the shutdown and restart of acetic acid plants of individual enterprises within the month, the market supply is still in a tight state. At present, Nanjing Bibi acetic acid plant has resumed production, but the market supply situation has not improved much. On the one hand, Henan Shunda acetic acid plant has failed to restart, and Jiangsu Sopu acetic acid plant has stopped unexpectedly, so the short-term supply gap is difficult to make up, In short supply, acetic acid market was pushed up channel.

The domestic methanol market continued to rise, the inventory of the mainland and ports decreased, and some olefins were imported to support the state of mind. The futures market went up, which was good for the domestic spot market. As of April 26, the price of Shandong area was about 2525.00 yuan / ton. At present, on-site shippers are reluctant to sell at low prices, while the downstream just needs to purchase. The market turnover is weak, and the methanol market is mainly in consolidation.

As of the 26th, the factory price of acetic anhydride was 11333.33 yuan / ton, up 21.21% in April. Mainly due to the upstream market trend and the tight supply of raw materials, the acetic acid price continued to rise in April, and the cost of raw materials rose, which pushed the acetic anhydride price up.

In terms of acetate, the domestic price of ethyl acetate rose sharply. As of the 26th, the average ex factory price of ethyl acetate in East China was 9562.50 yuan / ton, up 11.19% in April. The upstream acetic acid market continued to rise, the spot supply of raw material n-butanol market was tight, and the goods were ready before May Day. The mentality of the industry was bullish. Under the favorable conditions of supply and demand, the market trend of ethyl acetate continued to be strong. The price of raw materials is strong. The quotation of butyl acetate manufacturers keeps up with the trend. The lower reaches do not accept the high price and purchase on demand. The supply of raw material acetic acid market is tight, which supports the future market of downstream acetic acid.

According to acetic acid analysts of business news agency, the domestic acetic acid market is in short supply, the operating rate of acetic acid on site is low, some acetic acid plants of individual enterprises fail to operate normally, the market supply is difficult to recover in a short time, and the downstream demand is strong. It is expected that the acetic acid market will continue to operate at a high level, and the long-term trend needs to pay attention to the starting situation of acetic acid plants.

According to the price monitoring of the business society, the domestic spandex market in April was stable at a high level, and the overall quotation of the factory changed little. The average price of the current 40d specification was 67600 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with the beginning of the month, with a year-on-year increase of 104.23%. Spandex industry started around 90%, high-level operation.

Current mainstream price statistics of spandex market (unit: yuan / ton)

20D 30D 40D

Zhejiang 83000-85000 73000-75000 64000-67000

Shandong 83000-86000 74000-76000 63000-66000

Fujian 83000-86000 74000-76000 64000-68000

Jiangsu Province 83000-85000 73000-75000 63000-66000

The pure MDI market of raw materials is weak, and the overall negotiation atmosphere is not good. Most traders follow the market and purchase small orders from downstream. Local market negotiation in 22000-22500 yuan / ton telegraphic transfer barreled pick-up. The PTMEG market is in a narrow range, the BDO on the cost side is declining obviously, and the bearish sentiment is enhanced. At present, the mainstream factories of 1800 molecular weight supply offer around 43000 yuan / ton, and the actual order negotiation can refer to 42000-43000 yuan / ton. 80% of the PTMEG industry started. Specifically, Jiaxing Xiaoxing has 135000 tons of equipment for maintenance, and 80% of a set of equipment. The operation load of the 60000 ton plant in Panjin Changchun is not high.

Changes of domestic PTMEG manufacturers

Enterprise name Production capacity (10000 tons / year) remarks

Jiaxing Xiaoxing thirteen point five One device maintenance, one set of device 80%

Hangzhou Sanlong six The device has been restarted

Yizheng Dalian four Long term parking

Panjin Changchun six The operation load is not high

The follow-up of downstream terminal market demand is a little slow, purchasing on demand, cautious view of the market. At present, about 55-60% of the circular knitting machines are started, while 70% of the warp knitting machines are started, which is basically stable. Recently, the sales of summer fashion fabrics in the traditional Chinese Textile City market have been smooth in some parts, and the local transactions of nylon / polyester, nylon / cotton, cotton / nylon and spandex elastic, nylon / cotton elastic and cotton / nylon elastic fabrics are relatively active.

From the industry point of view, according to the statistics of the National Bureau of statistics, in March, the added value of the textile industry increased by 7.5% year-on-year; From January to March, the added value of textile industry increased by 22.5% year on year. In March, 3.4 billion meters of cloth were planted, a year-on-year increase of 5.5%; From January to March, 8.3 billion meters of cloth were planted, with a year-on-year increase of 12.5%. In March, 5.97 million tons of chemical fiber, an increase of 20.7% year on year; From January to March, chemical fiber was 15.8 million tons, up 27.1% year on year.

At present, the market trend of spandex has little change, the supporting role of the cost side is general, and the enthusiasm of downstream end customers to take goods is not high. In addition to the shortage of supply in the early stage, the transaction of coarse denier yarn can be negotiated. Business analysts expect that all parties will be cautious and wait-and-see in the future, and the price of spandex will still run smoothly in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of the business news agency, since April, hydrogen peroxide has continued to rise after bottoming out. At the beginning of the month, the market fell by more than 3%, and began to rise in the middle of the month, with an increase of more than 11%. As of April 23, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 1110 yuan / ton, up 7.07% from the beginning of April. In the last week of the end of the month, the market of hydrogen peroxide gradually recovered. As of April 26, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 1086 yuan / ton, up 4.82% from the beginning of April.

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of hydrogen peroxide from February 2021 to April 25, 2021, it can be seen that since February, the hydrogen peroxide market continued to decline in a weak way, with a maximum weekly decline of more than 11%. In the first ten days of March, hydrogen peroxide began to rebound, with the highest weekly increase of nearly 5.8%. After the sharp rise, it began to plunge into the market. By the middle of April, hydrogen peroxide hit the bottom and rebounded again, and continued to rise for more than half a month, up as high as 11%. Near the end of the month, the end of the terminal stock market, hydrogen peroxide diving high platform, prices have fallen, as of April 26, a decline of more than 2%.

On April 26, some domestic hydrogen peroxide manufacturers quoted as follows:

Luxi Chemical hydrogen peroxide quoted 1010 yuan / ton, up 110 yuan / ton from the beginning of April; Hebei Zhengyuan chemical fertilizer hydrogen peroxide quoted 1050 yuan / ton, the price increased by 150 yuan / ton; Anhui Quansheng chemical hydrogen peroxide plant shutdown, no offer, Anhui Jinhe hydrogen peroxide shortage, offer 1400 yuan / ton.

Terminal demand improves, hydrogen peroxide market picks up in April

In early April, hydrogen peroxide continued its decline in March, with the price falling mainly, with a decrease of more than 3%. Since the middle of this year, the purchasing demand of terminal paper industry has increased. In addition, the hydrogen peroxide plant of Anhui Quansheng has been shut down for maintenance. The hydrogen peroxide plant has low inventory and tight supply, so the ex factory price has been continuously increased. As of April 23, the price of hydrogen peroxide has risen quietly for more than a week, up as high as 11%. Although the terminal caprolactam market is weak and stable, the paper industry market also slows down, and the hydrogen peroxide Market is suppressed to a certain extent. Due to the low inventory and the price support of manufacturers, the hydrogen peroxide Market is still strong. Towards the end of the month, the end of centralized terminal stock market, hydrogen peroxide prices have been callback, down 30-50 yuan / ton, down more than 2%

Li Bing, hydrogen peroxide analyst of business news agency, believes that: before the May Day holiday, the stock market is over, and the terminal demand for hydrogen peroxide is down. After the holiday, the hydrogen peroxide market may continue to fall.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market has stabilized after rising in recent seven days. Last Monday was a weekly low of 8471 yuan / ton, 8614 yuan / ton last Sunday, with a 7-day increase of 1.69%, Saturday (April 24) as the weekly high, 8619 yuan / ton, with a 7-day amplitude of 1.74%.

2、 Analysis and comment

According to the price chart of the business agency, the propylene price fell sharply in the second half of March and recovered at the end of the month. The market price rose slowly in early April, with the quotation increasing by about 50 yuan / ton on average every day, while the price rose steadily at the beginning of June. The price started on the 16th day steadily increased at the rate of 50 yuan / ton, and began to stabilize on the 23rd. The current market transaction is between 8600-8700 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 8600 yuan / ton. On April 20, the foreign market of American propylene was down again significantly, which may have some influence on the domestic market. Recently, the price of propylene in Asia has been rising slightly, which has a small impact on the propylene market. There is no pressure on the stock of propylene market, and some units are still under maintenance. The supply of goods in Shandong Province is slightly tense.

Recently, international crude oil market events have been constantly, and the price fluctuates. Crude oil prices have been down significantly on April 20 and 21. The price fluctuation on April 22 and 23 is relatively small, with a slight upward trend, which has limited impact on the propylene market.

PP prices have risen slightly after the obvious decline in recent seven days, with a 7-day drop of 1.90%, and a 7-day amplitude of 2.09%. The futures market is cold and has limited impact on propylene.

Acrylic acid prices have stabilized after a slight increase in the past seven days, with a 7-day increase of 1.00%, which has little effect on the air of propylene.

In recent seven days, the propylene oxide market rose step by step, with a 7-day increase of 1.83%, which has a pull-up effect on propylene.

Epichlorohydrin market fell sharply in recent seven days, with a 7-day drop of 6.28%, which has a certain negative effect on propylene.

In recent seven days, the price of n-butanol in China was small up and down, without rise or fall, with the amplitude of 1.06% in the seven days, which had no impact on the propylene market.

In the past seven days, the price of isooctanol has been stable after steady rise, with a 7-day increase of 5.04%, which has a positive effect on propylene small.

The price of isopropanol has stabilized after the fluctuation of the price in the last seven days, with the 7-day increase of 0.92%, and the seven-day amplitude of 1.11%, which has little influence on propylene.

In the past seven days, the phenol Market Price in East China has been stable after rising steadily, with a 7-day increase of 2.76, which has a slightly positive effect on propylene.

In the last seven days, the quotation of the manufacturers in East China acetone market remained stable, which had no impact on propylene.

The price of acrylonitrile market has been falling in recent seven days, with a 7-day decline of 3.89%, and a 7-day amplitude of 4.30%, which has a positive effect on propylene.

3、 Post market forecast

According to propylene analysts of the chemical branch of business society, the domestic stock is not much, some units are overhauled, the supply of goods in Shandong is slightly tight, the crude oil market is slightly up, the downstream commencement rate is still acceptable, and polypropylene futures are generally. It is expected that the market will continue to stabilize the price later, and it is not allowed to exclude the possibility of small downward with downstream.

The system of business society commodity index shows that the natural rubber commodity index on April 26 was 39.37, down 0.48 points from yesterday, down 60.63% from the peak point of 100.00 in the cycle (2011-09-01), and 44.32% higher than the lowest point of 27.28 on April 02, 2020（ Note: the cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Figure 2: trend chart of mainstream price of natural rubber since April 2021

According to the data monitoring of business agency (100ppi.com), on April 1, 2021, the price of domestic total latex of natural rubber was 13300 yuan / ton, and that of rubber on April 26 was 13275 yuan / ton, with a downward range of only 0.19%; However, in fact, the natural rubber has gone out of the trend similar to “V”, with the lowest monthly value of 12757 yuan / ton on the 13th, and the maximum amplitude of the month is about 4% so far.

From the perspective of new rubber output, the main production area of natural rubber in China is gradually increased this month, but so far, the real rubber opening area can account for about half of the total area. According to local traders, most of the new latex was absorbed by local latex factories after the production; At present, the market is not much new emulsion, high price, some traders have no goods. In April, the epidemic in Southeast Asia rebounded, the situation was severe, Thailand had started curfew, and India was seriously out of control. Although the demand for rubber market is increasing, as India, which accounts for nearly 8% of rubber production, the industrial environment is damaged, not only the rubber output is affected, but the local demand for rubber products in China is also seriously affected. The most important is that the uncontrolled epidemic has led to global concerns about the future economic situation, and the rubber market has rebounded since mid April, It is not effective and sustainable. Latest global rubber monthly output data: the latest report released by ANRPC shows that the global rubber production increased by 1.3% to 91 million tons in march2021. Among them, Thailand decreased 10%, Indonesia increased by 2.8%, Vietnam by 12.5%, and Malaysia by 44.9%. In March, the global consumption of gum increased by 7.4% to 1234000 tons. Among them, China increased 3.3%, India increased by 40.8%, Thailand fell 8.4%, Malaysia increased by 3.4%.

From the downstream demand, from the tire manufacturer’s situation, the recent downstream factory commencement rate is slightly lower than that of last month: according to the data statistics, the starting rate of semi steel tire manufacturers in the week from April 16 to 22, 2021 is 72.67%, 0.10% lower than that of the previous year, and 14.59% year on year; The start rate of all steel tire manufacturers was 76.13%, down 1.21% on month, and 11.37% year on year. According to the automobile data, according to the passenger union news on April 22, the market expects the retail sales of passenger cars in narrow sense to be about 1.63 million, an increase of about 13.9% year-on-year. In the second quarter, the impact of chip shortage of manufacturers is prominent. The batch rhythm caused by insufficient capacity will move back to the terminal, bringing the emotion of discount recovery and buying wait-and-see. It is expected that the chip pressure will be relieved in the second half of the year. In addition, due to the complex and tense international relations, the repeated foreign epidemic, especially the influence of India’s runaway on the global economic recovery, downstream enterprises are full of worries and lack of confidence in the future of the market, and the trend from the rapid change of the market from 26 to the next can be seen.

From the aspect of inventory, the total inventory of the previous period was 177542 tons (-60) as of April 23, and the futures warehouse receipts were 174080 tons (-60). As of April 11, the inventory of Qingdao Bonded Zone continued to decline slightly, but the decline was narrowed due to the decrease of goods taken downstream.

From the aspect of import and export, China: according to the data released by the General Administration of Customs on April 13, China imported 711000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) in March 2021, an increase of 18.1% year-on-year. From January to March 2021, China imported 1791 million tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), an increase of 8% from 1659000 tons in the same period in 2020. Thailand: in the first quarter of 2021, Thailand exported 870000 tons of natural rubber (excluding compound rubber), an increase of 11% year-on-year. Among them, the total export of standard rubber is 383000 tons, an increase of 17% year-on-year; The export of cigarette glue was 125000 tons, down 6% year on year; The export of latex is 351000 tons, an increase of 12% year on year. In the first quarter, the total export to China’s natural rubber was 299000 tons, down 1% year on year. Among them, the total export of standard rubber to China is 151000 tons, down 2% year on year; The total export of cigarette glue to China was 22000 tons, down 8% year on year; The total export of latex to China was 126000 tons, an increase of 2% year on year. In the first quarter, Thailand exported 328000 tons of mixed rubber, a year-on-year drop of 27%; The total export of mixed rubber to China was 327000 tons, down 27% year on year. Vietnam: Vietnam customs statistics show that the first quarter of Vietnam’s rubber import and export deficit has been the first in nearly ten years, according to the report of Vietnam’s cafef website on April 20. Affected by COVID-19, global rubber demand is strong. In the first quarter, Vietnam exported 674 million US dollars of rubber exports and 406 thousand and 500 tons of cargo, and the price and volume increased 103% and 78.5% compared with the same period last year. China has become the largest market for rubber exports in Vietnam, accounting for 69% of Vietnam’s rubber exports. In the first quarter, Vietnam rubber import amount was US $691million, with a cargo weight of 504900 tons, with the price and volume increasing by 136.9% and 176.9% compared with the same period last year. Cambodia became the largest source of imported rubber in Vietnam, accounting for 62% of the import volume of Vietnamese rubber.

From the policy perspective, according to the report of Thai media on April 5, Bayun, deputy deputy chief of the Ministry of agriculture and cooperatives of Thailand, presided over the meeting of the Mortgage Management Committee for supporting rubber production enterprises, deliberated on the standards and conditions of the credit support plan for rubber production enterprises, and the credit line of the whole project was 25billion baht. It is stipulated that the credit limit of each rubber enterprise shall not exceed 40% of 25billion baht. The new standards and conditions allow each rubber enterprise to apply for the loan line, so that all rubber enterprises can join the credit support plan and benefit the farmers. Another source said the rubber authority of Thailand had sold 104763.35 tons of national reserve reserves in a domestic auction, according to a news release on Tuesday. The “old stock” sold included cigarette flakes, 20 standard and other types of rubber, said Nakorn tangavirapat, the Bureau’s director. The rubber sold is no longer suitable for normal use for nine years of old stock, due to long-term storage, resulting in deterioration. The sell-off is designed to save maintenance costs and will not put pressure on the market rubber prices.

As for the back market, the business agency analysis believes that the rubber raw materials needed for the epidemic situation will still be tight, but due to the worries about the international economic situation in the future, the market has insufficient confidence in the downstream demand of tires and other downstream, and the natural rubber post support function is weak because the automobile enterprises are also facing the influence of the lack of “core” factors. The repeated epidemic in Southeast Asia may have a great impact on the local new rubber output. Under the condition that the new rubber output is affected, combined with the current situation that the new rubber quantity in the domestic production area is not large, the supply end may have a shortage of new rubber, and the dependence on the domestic existing inventory will increase, but in the case of weak demand support, the market will inevitably be affected by the reverse.

Zinc price trend

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the zinc price fluctuated and adjusted in April, and the zinc market was basically stable. This week, the zinc price fluctuated and fell, and the zinc market weakened. As of April 25, the average price of zinc was 21606.67 yuan / ton, down 1.95% from 22036.67 yuan / ton on April 18 last weekend; Compared with the price of zinc on April 1, 21733.33 yuan / ton, the price of zinc fluctuated slightly, down 0.58%.

India’s epidemic can’t stop

Since April, the number of new confirmed cases in India has increased to a new high. According to the latest data of the World Health Organization, the number of new confirmed cases in India on the 23rd and 24th was the largest in the world. India’s official data show that on April 5, India’s daily number of confirmed cases exceeded 100000 for the first time, on April 15, more than 200000 and on April 22, more than 300000. India COVID-19 continues to deteriorate, triggering global concerns, the economic recovery is overshadowed, and zinc demand recovery is blocked.

In terms of commercial trade, from the overall situation of India’s products exported to the world, India’s main export commodities are chemical products, mineral products and precious metals and products. India’s exports to China are mainly fish, spices and iron ore, while its imports from China are mainly electronic products and equipment. The epidemic situation in India reduced the domestic zinc market’s export to India, but the impact was limited. The demand of zinc market fell but the decline was limited. The zinc market was bad but the negative pressure was small.

Analysis summary and Prospect

Bai Jiaxin, an analyst at business news agency, said: affected by the Indian epidemic, the global economic recovery is slowing down, and the demand of zinc market is dragged down. However, from the main types of trade commodities between China and India, it can be seen that the Indian epidemic has little impact on China’s zinc market. Zinc market is expected to be weak and stable in the future, and zinc market is expected to rise indefinitely.

1、 Price quotation

According to the data of business news agency, cotton spot market rose this week, and the price of 3128b lint on the 23rd was about 15719 yuan / ton. It was down 0.43% on a month on month basis and up 38.15% on a year-on-year basis.

2、 Market analysis

Domestic: this week, cotton spot showed an upward trend of shock. On the 23rd, China’s cotton price index 3128b was 15703 yuan / ton, up 152 yuan / ton from last Friday. According to statistics, the national cotton planting intention area in March was 43.6755 million mu, a year-on-year decrease of 4.99%, a decrease of 2.0232 million mu compared with the previous survey, and a decrease of 4.4 percentage points compared with the previous survey. At the end of March, the total turnover inventory of cotton in China was about 3.676 million tons, a month on month decrease of 383.3 million tons, a slight increase compared with last month, lower than 287.2 million tons in the same period of last year. As of April 16, the total commercial inventory of cotton was 3.644 million tons, a decrease of 63000 tons (1.69%) compared with last week.

On April 23, the weather forecast in Xinjiang showed that there was light rain or sleet or snow in most areas of cotton producing areas in Xinjiang. The precipitation cooling and continuous low temperature weather may have an impact on the growth of cotton crop sowing and emergence. The later period depends on the specific weather conditions, and the short-term cooling has little impact on the growth of cotton.

International: the U.S. Department of agriculture (USDA) released an export sales report on Thursday, which showed that the net sales of U.S. upland cotton exports in 2020 / 2021 increased by 103100 bales in the week ending April 15, down 16% from the previous week and 44% from the average of the previous four weeks. This week, although the weather drought in Texas supported ICE Futures rebounded to a new high, the weekly US cotton export report released was disappointing, and ice futures turned downward as of the 22nd.

According to the return of overseas orders last year, the demand for low count yarn varieties of pure cotton and polyester cotton is expected to increase. According to market news, recently due to the impact of the epidemic in India can not guarantee normal delivery, making some foreign orders back home, this news stimulate cotton prices. As a big textile country, the epidemic situation in India is difficult to control. In the long run, cotton in the second half of the year is basically good, providing support for the cotton price.

Futures: this week, Zheng cotton yarn rose at the same time. On April 23, the settlement price of zhengmian main contract 2109 was 15745 yuan / ton, up 385 yuan / ton from last Friday. On April 23, the settlement price of the main cotton yarn 2109 contract was 23210 yuan / ton, up 430 yuan / ton from last Friday.

3、 Downstream industry chain

With the rise of cotton price, some traders and textile enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets tentatively increased the cotton yarn quotation by 100-200 yuan / ton, but the transaction price was mainly based on the original quotation. Due to the advance of orders, most of the traditional peak season orders were overdrawn before March. Because of the repeated epidemic in Europe, another part of orders had not yet been issued. In April, new orders were not issued enough and the demand was flat. The inventory of yarn and grey cloth increased slightly but did not reach a high level. The enthusiasm of downstream raw material replenishment is still not high, the stock of imported cotton in the port is also at a high level, and the demand is about to turn into the off-season, and the increase of domestic orders is limited.

At present, the spot supply of cotton is sufficient, and the news of additional issuance of import cotton quota has not been settled. In the short term, the raw material inventory of downstream textile enterprises is sufficient, and the demand for replenishment is weak. It is expected that the market will stabilize in the future.