1、 Price trend

According to the data of business news agency, the domestic market price of maleic anhydride fell this week. As of March 19, the average price of maleic anhydride by hydrogenation of benzene remained at about 10800 yuan / ton, down 4.00% from 11250 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, and up 29.60% from the same period last month.

On March 19, the maleic anhydride commodity index was 101.74, which was the same as yesterday, decreased by 17.73% from the highest point of 123.67 in the cycle (December 26, 2017), and increased by 98.79% from the lowest point of 51.18 on April 14, 2020. (Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The domestic market of phthalic maleic anhydride started steady this week. International crude oil plummeted, leading to a correction in the price of chemical products; the operation rate of unsaturated resin in the lower reaches recovered slowly, the resin market was weak and wait-and-see, and just needed procurement was the main reason. As of the 19th, the amount of solid anhydride in Shandong is about 10200 yuan / ton, that in Jiangsu is about 10600 yuan / ton, that in Shanxi is about 10000 yuan / ton, that in Hebei is about 10000 yuan / ton, and that in South China is about 10000 yuan / ton.

On the upstream side, the price of pure benzene followed the trend of crude oil and styrene this week. On the 14th, the average price of pure benzene was 6670 yuan / ton, and on the 21st, the average price of pure benzene was 6450 yuan / ton, down 3.3% from last week. This week, the market price of hydrobenzene in Shandong remained stable, at 6125 yuan / ton. The price of n-butane fell, and the price in Shandong was 4100 yuan / ton.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices in the 11th week of 2021 (3.15-3.19), there were 27 kinds of commodities in the chemical industry sector that rose month on month, among which 4 kinds of commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 4.3% of the total number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 commodities were aniline (11.11%), lithium hydroxide (9.22%) and silicone DMC (9.01%). There were 36 kinds of commodities with a month on month decrease, and 4 kinds of commodities with a decrease of more than 5%, accounting for 4.3% of the monitored commodities in this sector; the top 3 products with a decrease were TDI (- 8.70%), styrene (- 7.45%) and cyclohexanone (- 6.21%). This week’s average rise or fall was – 0.15%.

3、 Future forecast

Business community maleic anhydride product analysts believe that the current maleic anhydride market is in a strong wait-and-see mood, and the downstream just needs to purchase, the terminal demand is low, and the wait-and-see mood is strong, and the market is expected to be weak in a short time.

As of March 19, the average 180CST price of domestic fuel oil was 4775.00 yuan / ton (including tax), down 1.04% from 4825.00 yuan / ton on March 15, according to the data of business news agency.

On March 19, the fuel oil commodity index was 96.71, unchanged from yesterday, down 16.56% from 115.91 (October 17, 2018), the highest point in the cycle, and up 109.87% from 46.08, the lowest point on August 15, 2016. (Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

Domestic marine oil raw materials have limited support for fuel oil 180CST. The average price of Fukuang shale oil in the latest bidding on March 16 was 3436 yuan / T, down 130 yuan / T. according to the business news agency, as of March 19, the self provided low sulfur quotation of fuel oil 180CST in Zhoushan area was 4600 yuan / T, the self provided low sulfur quotation of fuel oil 120cst was 4700 yuan / T, and the self provided low sulfur quotation of fuel oil 180CST in Shanghai area was 4850 yuan / T, the self provided low sulfur quotation of fuel oil 120cs The price is 4950 yuan / ton.

This week, the international crude oil price plummeted, and the support for fuel oil price was limited. According to business news agency monitoring, oil prices have been falling for five consecutive trading days. At the macro level, due to the release of water from the Federal Reserve and central banks, inflation expectations continued to rise, US bond yields rose, and the prices of risky assets such as stock markets and commodities were suppressed. On Thursday, the market’s expectation of inflation intensified and the tide of US debt selling hit. The yield of 10-year US debt rose to more than 1.7% for the first time in 14 months. The strengthening of the US dollar led to the decline of the stock index and the sharp drop of oil price. In addition, the pace of global economic recovery was once again dragged down by the epidemic. This time, it mainly came from the European region. The European vaccination process was blocked, which led to the expectation of slower economic recovery, Oil prices are under pressure. WTI and Brent crude oil fell to two-week lows one after another. WTI closed below US $60. WTI crude oil hit the biggest one-day decline in the second half of the year.

Singapore’s fuel oil inventory has increased, with limited support for fuel oil. It is understood that the Singapore enterprise development board (ESG): as of March 17, Singapore’s inventory of residual fuel oil (excluding asphalt), including fuel oil and low sulfur waxy residual oil, increased by 51000 barrels to a three-month high of 22.849 million barrels.

Future forecast: business community energy analysts believe that a sharp drop in crude oil may lead to a downward trend in raw material prices. The fuel oil market is mainly on the lookout, and some enterprises will set prices next week. At present, the downstream demand of the ship fuel market is light, and the terminal mainly purchases on demand, while the downstream replenishment is cautious. Fuel oil prices are expected to decline next week.

1、 Domestic sodium pyrosulfite price trend chart

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the domestic price of sodium pyrosulfite was relatively stable this week. The average price of industrial grade sodium pyrosulfite was 1783.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 1783.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up or down by 0.

2、 Market analysis

In March, the domestic soda ash and sulfur prices continued to be high and strong, and the cost of raw materials continued to be high. At the beginning of this month, the sodium pyrosulfite manufacturers successively increased the ex factory prices, which led to a sharp rise in the domestic sodium pyrosulfite market price as a whole. This week, the market price range of industrial sodium pyrosulfite is 1700-1950 yuan / ton, and most of the prices are concentrated in 1700-1800 yuan / ton. The production of the enterprise is stable, the inventory is maintained at about 30%, the enterprise mainly completes the orders of old customers, and the increase of new orders is limited. (the above prices are quoted by domestic mainstream enterprises, and some enterprises not quoted are not within their scope. The prices are for reference only and have nothing to do with the final pricing of manufacturers. For details, please contact each manufacturer for consultation).

As of March 19, domestic soda price rose by 9.46% in March, and sulfur price rose by 8.5%. The cost of upstream raw materials continued to rise. Supported by the cost, it is expected that the market price of sodium pyrosulfite will continue to rise in the future.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts of business news agency believe that the cost of raw materials has risen sharply. Supported by the cost, it is expected that the domestic market price of sodium pyrosulfite will continue to rise.

Commodity index: the polyacrylamide commodity index was 93.18 on March 18, which was flat with yesterday, down 13.02% from 107.13 (may 08, 2019), the highest point in the cycle, and 12.41% higher than the lowest point of 82.89 on August 02, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to April 1, 2019 to present)

The data show that since the end of the Spring Festival in 2021, the water treatment manufacturers in Henan main production area have resumed production, and the production of polyacrylamide has already returned to normal; the large increase in the cost of acrylonitrile in the early stage led to a high market of polyacrylamide, with an upward range of more than 10%, and then a slight correction, falling to within 10%, about 9.84%.

According to the monitoring of business society, the current domestic (molecular weight 12 million, ionic degree 10-30) polyacrylamide mainstream quotation: cation main report 15000-16000 yuan / ton, anion main report 11000-12000 yuan / ton.

Upstream raw materials: since February, driven by the rising cost of raw materials and supply shortage factors, the price of acrylonitrile has been rising all the way. Especially since the Spring Festival, the market has risen sharply. The domestic price has reached the highest level in nearly five years: the mainstream quotation on February 18 is 12100 yuan / T, and the daily report of March 10 is 16500 yuan / ton, up 4500 yuan / T, with a range of 36%; however, due to the impact of the upstream price reduction in the near future, 1 On May, it was down 250 yuan / ton, and the market mainstream quotation was reduced to 16250 yuan / ton, and the current increase has dropped by 2 points, about 34%. In terms of supply, domestic manufacturers concentrated maintenance in February, reduced supply and tight supply. After years, foreign demand increased, driving the price of domestic acrylonitrile to rise greatly; it is reported that the high price greatly stimulated the enthusiasm of manufacturers’ production. The main equipment: the material feeding of Haijiang, Shandong Province was reopened on March 12; Fushun Petrochemical was originally scheduled to cancel the overhaul in April, which was reported that Shanghai SECCO’s overhaul plan in April was cancelled It is also possible to delay the stroke.

Downstream demand: affected by the high price of upstream raw materials, the cost of polyacrylamide has increased greatly. From the perspective of the conductivity of upstream and downstream industrial chain, the space for polyacrylamide rise is at least 4000 yuan / ton; however, since the Spring Festival, water treatment project is not the peak period of construction, especially at the end of heating season, the demand is weak, and the trend of polyacrylamide price rise is not sustained. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the problem of polyacrylamide price increase The previous drop was about 500 yuan / ton.

Post market forecast: business society analysis believes that the bulk raw material market is greatly affected by inflation and demand due to the overall macroeconomic environment. Raw material end, from the perspective of upstream petrochemical industry chain, the price of acrylonitrile is high in the long term, and the cost of polyacrylamide will still be at a high price; in view of the increasing demand of water treatment project in the later stage, the market of polyacrylamide will be mainly volatile in the medium and long term; the short-term demand end is weak, the price is stable, some of which is down, and the overall strength still needs time.

1、 Price trend:

According to the data of the business club’s block list, China’s domestic PA6 market fell from a high level in March, and the spot price had a correction. As of the press time on March 17, the mainstream offer price of sample enterprises for Zhongyou 2.75-2.85 was about 15633.33 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1.88% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month, and a rise of 17.25% compared with the same period of last month.

2、 The influencing factors were analyzed

Upstream, caprolactam domestic market recently also began to callback, and individual spot prices fell significantly. The average offer price of sample enterprises of business cooperatives was about 13733.33 yuan / ton, with an increase of 0.98% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month, and a month on month increase of 19.77% compared with the same period in February. On the supply side, Luxi Chemical had unplanned capacity loss, and the domestic spot accumulation was not prominent. However, the operating rate of downstream plants has declined, caprolactam can not bear the pressure of weakening demand and fall, caprolactam market is expected to continue to adjust downward in the short term.

The price of raw material caprolactam callback weakened the cost support of PA6. In the early stage, PA6 was boosted by the tightening supply of the international crude oil and chemical industry chain. At present, the supply side is more abundant than before, and the downstream plants buy as they use, so the purchasing enthusiasm is not good. The overall inventory of polymerization plant showed an upward trend, and the accumulation speed of some models of products was faster. Recently, the merchants are still more active in shipping, and the low price supply forces the manufacturers to reduce the load.

3、 Future forecast:

Analysts of business news agency think: Recently, the caprolactam load of PA6 upstream is high and the price is low, which weakens the cost support of PA6. Just take delivery of PA6, there is no market demand in the downstream. On the whole, the fundamentals of PA6 are strong at present, and it is expected that the price of PA6 will continue to decrease slightly.

Last week (3.8-12), the domestic ethyl acetate Market was mainly stable. After a sharp rise in late February, the high price fell in early March. At present, the price has stabilized. According to the monitoring of the business society, the production price of ethyl acetate in East China was 8925 yuan / ton, up or down to 0 last week.

In terms of the upstream acetic acid market, it has also stepped out of the stable market after falling from a high level. The cost support is weakened. The current price of acetic acid is still high, the market supply is slightly short, the downstream demand is stable, and the acetic acid market maintains a narrow high adjustment trend in the short term.

In the first week of this month, the price of ethyl acetate manufacturers in Shandong fell, but at present, the callback trend is basically in place. With the price of jinyimeng and other manufacturers rebounding after falling, the current price is running to a relatively high level, mainly due to the easing of supply pressure and the rigid demand. Supply side: in recent years, large plants have been running stably and the market supply is sufficient, but the inventory pressure of manufacturers is not obvious. Moreover, in terms of demand, with the recovery of economy, the terminal industry also showed warmth, the downstream operating rate gradually increased, and the purchasing capacity increased significantly compared with the previous month.

In the future, the price of ethyl acetate will be stable due to the stable supply and demand in the short term, and there should be little room for rise and fall.

Last week, driven by the crude oil end, the unilateral price of fuel oil experienced a trend of high inflation and then stabilized. As of Friday, the main Fu futures of high sulfur fuel oil futures recorded 2578 yuan / ton, up 6.1% on a month basis; meanwhile, the main force of low sulfur fuel oil futures recorded 3379 yuan / ton, up 2.7% on a month basis. The price difference between lu2105 and fu2105 cut to 786 yuan / ton last Thursday, down 73 yuan / ton on a month basis compared with the previous week. On the external market, Singapore’s high sulfur 380cst fuel oil swap M1 contract recorded $395 / T by Friday, up 2.1% on the previous week; meanwhile, Singapore’s marine0.5% fuel oil swap M1 contract recorded $513.5/t, up 1.4% on the previous week. The external market marine 0.5% vs 380cst hsfo swap spread M1 recorded $118.5/t as of Friday, down $1.05 / ton on a month basis.

Crude oil prices rose on Monday, with Brent breaking $71 a barrel. But then international oil prices fell rapidly and began to stabilize and enter a more flat upward trend since Wednesday. We currently believe that the long logic of oil prices has not been reversed significantly. On the one hand, the upward and downward trend of last week is that the price of the previous period has risen too fast, including the pricing of some attacks on Saudi Arabia. At present, it is seen that the local facilities are not damaged in substance, and this “premium” is also falsified. On the other hand, the strength of the US debt interest rate and the dollar index has disturbed the upward trend of oil prices. But in general, the trend of crude oil tightening has not changed. Due to OPEC’s cautious increase in production and the fact that the recovery of shale oil supply in the United States is subject to capital expenditure, it is difficult to match the supply end completely under the background of gradual recovery of demand after the outbreak. This pattern of supply and demand mismatch promotes the continuous de stocking of excess stock and also forms a strong support for the current price of crude oil. Before the supply and demand pattern was broken, we believe that oil prices still have space and drive to continue to rise. Therefore, we maintain a cautious and optimistic attitude towards the crude oil end, and the unilateral price of downstream fuel oil is expected to continue to be supported by the cost side. Of course, the downside risk cannot be ignored completely at present. Both the early return of Iranian oil to the market and the substantial increase of OPEC in the next meeting are significant potential negative factors. Therefore, we do not recommend excessive chasing up for the unilateral price of crude oil and fuel oil.

In terms of the basic aspect of fuel oil, there are some marginal turning trends in the recent high and low sulfur fuel oil (low sulfur marginal turn weak, while high sulfur has stabilized). We mentioned the potential drivers of each other before, high sulfur fuel oil is the seasonal recovery of power generation demand in Middle East and other places, while low sulfur fuel oil is due to the increase in supply caused by overestimation (the previously high sulfur fuel oil cracking price difference was relatively strong in the mass oil). At present, both of these drivers have been shown, but not very obvious. In terms of high sulfur, we have seen the increase in fuel oil demand in Middle East and South Asia in recent years. In addition, the ship period data show that Saudi Arabia’s fuel oil import rebounded significantly in March (estimated import of 710000 tons in March and 440000 tons on February), but there is still room for growth from the procurement volume in peak season. From the perspective of the weak marginal shift of low sulfur fuel oil, some Asian refineries are increasing the production of low sulfur fuel oil in recent years, but the supply of China has not seen this trend (refer to the statistics of jinlianchuang in January and February, the domestic low sulfur production is about 700000 tons). In addition, since Asia, including China, will enter the period of centralized refinery maintenance in March and April, while Brazil’s export is still at a low level, we expect that the probability of significant increase in the supply of low sulfur in the short term is not very high.

In general, we believe that the unilateral price of high and low sulfur fuel oil is expected to rise further under the trend of upward crude oil end. There is no big contradiction in their basic plane at present. The trend of high and low sulfur differentiation has been significantly relieved in the early stage, but there is still insufficient driving force to reverse. Therefore, we expect that the cracking price difference of high and low sulfur fuel oil in the short term and the price difference between them may be in a partial fluctuation trend. In terms of internal market, the Fu external price difference has been in a low position in recent years. This structure is also conducive to the remaining warehouse receipts. We see that 9100 tons of warehouse receipts were cancelled last week and the total amount of warehouse receipts also dropped below 200000 tons. Referring to exchange data, inventory subtotal items also reduced 9100 tons, so these warehouse receipts may have been actually digested by the end consumer market. In the future, if the digestion process of the high sulfur fuel oil warehouse order can be smoothly carried out, the performance of Fu disk is expected to be stronger on the basis of the existing.

Strategy: Fu is cautious in one side, while Lu is more cautious;

Risk: OPEC’s future production exceeded expectations; Iran Oil returned to the market ahead of time; refinery started to rise sharply; shipping demand improved less than expected; distillate oil market performance was not expected; Lu warehouse receipts were registered in large quantities; Fu warehouse receipts were cancelled in large quantities.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the average price of PS (GPPS 525) was 10866 yuan / ton on March 8 at the beginning of this week, while the average price of PS (GPPS 525) was 10866 yuan / ton on March 12 at the end of this week, which was temporarily stable, up 19.41% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

Due to the general rise of bulk commodities, styrene futures and spot rose again, and the price of common materials rose, market inquiries and transactions improved. However, the raw material styrene began to fall sharply on Tuesday. In addition, the ex factory listing and settlement price of Huadong PS were lower than last week’s, and the offer of ordinary materials fell by different ranges. The supply of high-end materials and benzene market is relatively tight, with limited decline. According to the data, on March 11, 2021, the benzene penetration revenue of East China market was 10150-13750 yuan / ton, with the low end down 150 yuan / ton and the high end down 50 yuan / ton.

PS inventory continues to increase, supply pressure still exists, and the price difference between PS raw material and recycled material in northern China is too large, which still affects the replacement demand of PS raw material for recycled material.

3、 Future forecast

The PS market is still in a wait-and-see mood, but the profit margin is lower than last week, and there may be limited room for further correction. It is estimated that benzene penetration in East China market will be 10100-13750 yuan / ton.

On March 12, 2021, the price of metallic silicon (441) rose. According to the data of business news agency, on March 12, the average market price of domestic metallic silicon (441) was 13866.67 yuan / ton, up 1.53% compared with the average market price of 13658.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of March (3.1).

On December 12, the prices of 441 silicon in different regions were as follows:

The price range of silicon metal in Fujian is 13200-13400 yuan / ton, that in Sichuan is 13600-13700 yuan / ton, that in Kunming is 13600-13700 yuan / ton, that in Shanghai is 14500-14700 yuan / ton, that in Tianjin port is 14000-14100 yuan / ton, and that in Huangpu port is 13900-14000 yuan / ton .

Recently, the bulk commodity market is high, and the market of silicon downstream products is also in a good shape. The price of aluminum alloy is affected by the price of aluminum ingot, and the price of polycrystalline silicon is also on the rise. At present, the new orders of silicone DMC are increasing, and some factories still mainly deliver the early-stage contract after the start of construction. The spot supply is tight, and the price of downstream products is also strong with the rise of raw materials Up, the confidence of the upstream and downstream industry continued to improve.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, after new year’s day, the Spring Festival is approaching, terminal manufacturers have concentrated parking and maintenance, and demand turns weak. The hydrogen peroxide market begins to enter the downward channel, and the price falls continuously, from January to March 11, approaching the bottom of the valley. The market price of hydrogen peroxide was 1430 yuan / ton in early January, 932 yuan / ton on March 11, and the price fell 34.79% as a whole.

According to the performance of hydrogen peroxide in the first quarter of 2020 from December 2020 to March 11, 2021, it has been down for 4 months in February, mainly because of the limited export order of hydrogen peroxide and delay of the start of the end paper printing and other manufacturers. Hydrogen peroxide has fallen for two months in 2021, still more than 30 percent. In early March, the hydrogen peroxide market continued to decline mainly, with the average price of 932 yuan / ton on November, which was nearly 35% lower than that in early January.

Terminal heating enterprises are expected to rebound hydrogen peroxide in parking

Since February, the traditional consumption of hydrogen peroxide has come off-season. The end printing industry, paper industry, caprolactam and other manufacturers have stopped for maintenance, and the enthusiasm for purchasing hydrogen peroxide has declined. In addition, the logistics cost increases, transportation is limited, and the hydrogen peroxide market enters the down channel. During the Spring Festival, some hydrogen peroxide manufacturers started normally, increased supply and inventory recovered. After the Spring Festival, the end paper and printing industries have not yet fully resumed construction, and terminal demand is still poor. Hydrogen peroxide manufacturers continue to reduce the factory price, and the price continues to decline, reaching 21%.

In March, the price of hydrogen peroxide continued to be weak in February, because the end paper and caprolactam market rose sharply, the decline of hydrogen peroxide slowed down, and continued to stabilize. The overall quotation is still weak. On March 11, the hydrogen peroxide manufacturer, Anhui Quansheng, stopped and repaired, sold inventory and raised the price.

The terminal has been the turning point of hydrogen peroxide in the industry of lactam paper industry

Although hydrogen peroxide has fallen for two and a half months, the market of end paper and caprolactam is quite good. Paper and caprolactam have been on the rise after the start of 2021.

Paper: because Jiulong many bases released the notice of price rise after the Spring Festival before the festival, the paper factories followed the price increase after the festival. Due to the impact of public health events, the northern region stopped production ahead of schedule. With the stability of post Festival health events, the downstream paper factory started to start working actively, so the demand for raw paper began to increase. With the rising of raw material price and strong demand, the corrugated paper price rose significantly, and as of March 11, the corrugated paper price rose by more than 11.5% compared with the beginning of January.

Caprolactam: after the Spring Festival, on the outside market, the cold weather in the United States has affected the shutdown of crude oil and chemical refineries, which led to a sharp rise in pure benzene. Caprolactam is supported by the rising of pure benzene raw materials, and the general starting rate of the terminal PA6 chip manufacturers have started, with increasing demand, and the market ushered in a rising channel, and the price continued to rise. As of March 11, caprolactam prices rose 28.64% from the beginning of January.

Li Bing, an analyst with hydrogen peroxide at the business agency, said: in late March, hydrogen peroxide production enterprises stopped maintenance, supply was tight, terminal market recovered, demand was higher, and hydrogen peroxide would usher in an increase.