Magnesium market trend

On March 30, 2021, the price range of magnesium ingots (99.9%, non pickling, simple packaging) ex factory cash including tax in the main production areas of China is 15200-15500 yuan / ton, mainly through actual single negotiation.

The specific price range of each region is as follows:

In fugu area, the ex factory cash including tax is 15200-15300 yuan / ton; in Taiyuan area, it is 15300-15400 yuan / ton; in Wenxi area, it is 15400-15500 yuan / ton; in Ningxia area, it is 15200-15300 yuan / ton.

Magnesium ingot is original magnesium ingot according to national standard (GB / t3499-2011); non pickling, no wooden pallet and non payment acceptance price, mainly based on single negotiation.

According to the data of the business association, the average market price of the main production areas on the 30th was 15366.67 yuan / ton, slightly lower than the previous quotation.

In the near future, the downstream demand is not strong, the amount of market inquiries is not much, the procurement is cautious, the demand for more rigid goods is mainly strong, the demand for warehouse is weakening, and the market trading is flat.

1、 Price trend of propylene oxide

(Figure: p-value curve of propylene oxide product)

2、 Market analysis

According to the data of the business club’s block list, as of March 30, the average quotation price of propylene oxide enterprises was 18933.33 yuan / ton, down 2.41% compared with the previous trading day, down 5.80% compared with last Tuesday (March 23), and up 0.53% compared with the price at the beginning of the month. At present, it represents the medium level of factory inventory, the willingness of the middle and lower reaches to hold down the price, Duowei needs to follow up, and the focus of market negotiation is on the low end. At present, the mainstream quotation of propylene oxide Market in Shandong is around 18400-18600 yuan / ton.

Upstream propylene, March 30, Shandong propylene market prices rose slightly. According to the price chart of the business society, affected by the upstream and downstream, the propylene price rose again and again in the second half of February, which was at a high level for many years. It was generally stable at the end of the month and the beginning of the month. The price began to decline on the 4th, and generally rebounded on the 8th. The price rose 150-250 yuan / ton in two days, and then generally stabilized. The price rose about 50 yuan / ton again on the 12th, and continued to rise 50 yuan / ton on the 15th, starting from the 16th Since the 18th, the price has entered the downward channel again, with a daily drop of 100-150 yuan / ton. Since the 25th, the price has been generally stable, with some small changes in individual enterprises. Today, half of the prices have risen by about 50 yuan / ton. At present, the market transaction is still between 7850-8400 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is 7850-7900 yuan / ton.

Downstream propylene glycol, according to the monitoring data of the business community, as of March 30, the factory price of domestic industrial grade propylene glycol was 16066.67 yuan / ton, which was the same as that of the previous trading day; downstream soft foam polyether, on March 30, the market price of soft foam polyether in Shandong fell, the raw material propylene oxide fell, the cost support weakened, the downstream inquiry atmosphere was ok, and the actual transaction was general. At present, the market price of soft foam polyether in Shandong Province declined The mainstream price of ordinary soft foam polyether market in the district is around 18100-18400 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

Business community propylene oxide analysts believe that, at present, the downstream mentality is cautious, and there is no lack of manufacturers to let profits and drain stocks. It is expected that in the short term, the propylene oxide market may be weak, and more specific trends still need to pay attention to market information guidance.

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the average sulfur production price in East China on March 30 was 1456.67 yuan / ton, down 1.35% from yesterday’s price. At present, the price of solid sulfur in China is 1360-1490 yuan / ton, and the price of liquid sulfur is RMB 1300-1460 / ton.

As of March 25, the prices of sulfur in various regions of China are as follows:

Regional varieties March 30

Sulfur (particles) 1430-1490 yuan / ton in East China

Sulfur (particles) in North China is 1360-1430 yuan / ton

Sulfur (particles) 1450-1480 yuan / ton in Shandong Province

Domestic sulfur is stable, medium and downward, and refineries in each region adjust their prices according to their own shipment. Solid and liquid sulfur in North China and Shandong are all slightly reduced. At present, the inventory of refineries in each region is low, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is low, the support is weak, and the site is mainly rigid and watchful. The demand of the downstream phosphor industry is stable. In addition, the spring ploughing fertilizer is near, which has certain support for sulfur. Later, the demand of the downstream phosphor industry is stable, and the spring ploughing fertilizer is near, which will support sulfur to some extent The sulfur market will be arranged on a watch basis.

March 30 cotton yarn spot market stable. The price of 32S is about 26700 yuan / ton. After last week’s sharp fall, the price of upstream cotton rose slightly this week. On the 30th, the price of 3128b was 15246 yuan / ton, up 98 yuan / ton from last Friday. Internationally, US cotton fell to less than 80 cents last week, textile mill buying increased significantly, US Department of agriculture report is expected to reduce cotton planting area forecast, ice cotton futures rose slightly in the shock on Monday, providing support for prices. The price of imported yarn is high, and the price difference between inner yarn and outer yarn is large. The heat of the Xinjiang cotton incident has gradually cooled down, and the market has reestablished confidence in the domestic demand for yarn grey cloth and other products. Downstream, cloth factory just need replenishment, yarn factory new orders are limited.

At present, the cotton market has improved, and the cotton yarn market is supported by the cost. However, the orders of downstream weaving factories are coming to an end, and the market is not favorable in the short term. The industry is cautious, and it is expected that the cotton yarn market will be stable in the short term.

Commodity index: on March 30, the polyaluminum chloride commodity index was 92.90, which was the same as yesterday, decreased by 14.78% compared with 109.01 points (August 28, 2019), the highest point in the cycle, and increased by 10.18% compared with 84.32 points, the lowest point on August 18, 2020. (Note: period refers to from April 1, 2019 to now)

The monitoring found that in March 2021, the mainstream market of polyaluminum chloride in Henan Province of China fluctuated and decreased. As shown in the figure, on March 1, the domestic mainstream price of solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) polyaluminum chloride was 1791.67 yuan / ton, and on March 30, the mainstream price was 1718.57 yuan / ton, with a decrease rate of about 4%. The water treatment plants in the main production areas of Henan Province have been in normal production after the Spring Festival holiday. However, due to the requirements of environmental protection policies, since the middle of this month, all the water treatment plants in Gongyi have stopped production for rectification. At present, the manufacturers have sufficient inventory. The biggest influencing factor of this month’s market: since the start of the year, the downstream demand has gradually recovered, the supply of goods is still sufficient, and the market is generally weak. However, some manufacturers have been unable to support due to strict environmental inspection. This situation will become more and more obvious with the strict environmental inspection.

Industrial chain: in terms of upstream raw materials, according to the data from the business community, the trend of hydrochloric acid in North China rose in March. On March 1, the mainstream market quotation was about 172 yuan / ton, and on March 30, it was about 197.5 yuan / ton, with a monthly increase of nearly 15%. The upstream liquid chlorine market rose by 17% this month, with strong cost support. The maintenance of downstream enterprises of hydrochloric acid increased, and the demand decreased. The hydrochloric acid supply enterprises had more inventory, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was general, and the market supply exceeded the demand. The support of downstream silica is relatively low, and the monthly price fluctuation is no more than 1%. The support of ammonium chloride is strong, and the monthly rise is 14%. The downstream demand of “Jinshan” hydrochloric acid is gradually increasing, resulting in the fluctuation of hydrochloric acid up about 15% this month.

Secondly, the natural gas used in the production of polyaluminum chloride. In March, the LPG market changed its downward trend and returned to the upward trend. Around the 10th, Shandong’s civil gas market showed the most obvious increase. It began to fall continuously in the middle of the month and rebounded again at the end of the month. Affected by the changes in crude oil prices and downstream gas demand, the LPG market showed a significant rise and fall trend this month. According to the data monitoring of the business association, the average price of LPG in Shandong market on March 1 was 3616 yuan / ton, while on March 30, the price was about 3966 yuan / ton, with a monthly increase of nearly 7%. In the near future, crude oil rebounded and the price was obviously driven. However, the following weather became warmer, the demand was weak, and the future market of liquefied gas was weak, so its impact on the cost of water treatment products was not so prominent.

Downstream demand: at present, many local enterprises are undergoing strict inspection of environmental protection, and the downstream demand is still gradually increasing; the manufacturers in Gongyi area of Henan Province should stop production according to the requirements of environmental protection, and the inventory is gradually consumed. In the spring of the golden three silver four, the requirements of various industries for environmental protection are improved, and the demand of water treatment industry will also increase.

Future forecast: according to the analysis of business community, the two sessions in 2021 will be “carbon peak” and “carbon neutral” It is written into the government work report for the first time, striving to reach the peak of carbon emissions by 2030 and achieve “carbon neutralization” by 2060. Under this background, the chemical industry is bound to face strict rectification. With the gradual introduction and implementation of relevant policies, the environmental protection requirements will continue to be strict in the later stage, and the technical requirements for relevant enterprises will also be improved. Petrochemical enterprises are also facing strict rectification, and the technical requirements will be improved The technical threshold is constantly rising; the production stop and rectification actions are frequent, the supply side can not avoid being affected, and the price is expected to rise. At the same time, in the global central bank water triggered inflation trend, raw material prices have been rising. To sum up, under the current situation of gradual recovery of demand and sufficient inventory, the price of polyaluminum chloride is mainly stable for the time being; with the extension of shutdown time and excessive inventory consumption, some manufacturers will continue to be short of supply, and it is expected that the downstream procurement cost will gradually increase in the second, third and fourth quarters. However, it can not be ruled out that some manufacturers can not continue to support due to the long shutdown time. It is suggested that manufacturers should improve their technical level as soon as possible and meet the requirements of environmental protection.

The price of methanol in the domestic market rose 26.26% to 233.32 yuan per week, with a year-on-year decrease of 23.73%. On the mainland side, the spring inspection is in its peak period, and the supply is shrinking obviously; on the port side, the inventory is still in the process of de stocking, but it is weaker than that of the mainland. With the return of imports, there is an expectation of accumulating the inventory.

As of March 26, methanol market price summary by Region:

Region, price

Qinghai Area/

RMB 2050 / T in Shanxi

Liaoning area 2200-2100 yuan / ton

Fujian area: 2470-2480 yuan / ton

Ex factory reference 2220-2250 yuan / ton in Lianghu area

Anhui area: 2260-2280 yuan / ton

Henan Province: reference 2120-2125 yuan / ton

On the downstream side, the demand for formaldehyde downstream terminals was good this week, Baoji Xinquan resumed operation, and other devices remained normal. On Tuesday, the manufacturers of methyl ether maintained 40-60% low load operation, the downstream demand shrank, and the market transaction atmosphere was not good, resulting in the long-term low start. This week, the domestic acetic acid plants were relatively stable, and the load of some plants increased slightly. Drive the start-up of acetic acid industry to increase.

In terms of external market, as of March 25, the closing price of CFR China methanol was 290.00-291.00 USD / T; CFR Southeast Asia methanol was 365.50-366.50 USD / T. US Gulf methanol closed at 119.50-120.50 cents per gallon, down 0.5 cents per gallon; FOB Rotterdam methanol closed at 318.50-319.50 euros per ton, up 7 euros per ton.

Region, country, closing price, up and down

Asian CFR China $291.00-292.00/t $0 / T

50-366.50 US dollars / ton – 0 US dollars / ton

50-120.50 cents / gal-0.5 cents / gal

Europe ﹣ FOB Rotterdam ﹣ 318.50-319.50 euro / ton ﹣ 7 euro / ton

In the future, on the supply side, as the spring overhaul is approaching, the overhaul plans of methanol enterprises in the mainland are coming out one after another; some downstream units are recovering one after another, and the demand for methanol is rising slowly. Business community methanol analysts expect that the domestic methanol market in the short term consolidation.

This week (3.22-3.26) the market of NBR was weak and stable. According to the monitoring of business society, as of March 26, the price of NBR was 22950 yuan / ton.

On the one hand, the domestic ex factory price of nitrile is raised again by 200-600 yuan / ton. According to the monitoring of the business agency, as of March 26, Lanzhou Petrochemical n41e reported 19600 yuan / ton, 3305e reported 21200 yuan / ton, 3308e reported 21600 yuan / ton; as of March 26, Sinopec Xibu nitrile 2665 reported 20200 yuan / ton, nitrile 3365 reported 20600 yuan / ton. Butyronitrile manufacturers are generally stable in operation and low in inventory. But on the other hand, the downstream demand is relatively weak, downstream rubber products enterprises purchase more with the use of pick, stock is not much. The upstream and downstream are slightly deadlocked, the market is dominated by merchants, and the market price is generally stable compared with last week. At present, the market offers are around 19800 yuan / ton for Lanhua n41, 22000 yuan / ton for South Korea lg6250, 19700-20000 yuan / ton for Russia 3365 and 24000-24500 yuan / ton for Nandi 1052.

The price of raw materials is stable and weak, and the cost side is empty. According to the monitoring of business news agency, as of March 26, the price of butadiene was 8424 yuan / ton, down slightly by 0.20% compared with 8441 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week.

Future forecast: NBR analysts of business community believe that the overall pressure on the supply side of NBR is not big, but on the one hand, the international crude oil is weak and volatile this week, and there is downward risk on the cost side. In addition, the downstream procurement of NBR is not strong, and the support on the demand side is insufficient. It is expected that NBR will be weak and fall slightly in the future.

According to the commodity index system of business community, the natural rubber commodity index on March 25 was 40.40, down 0.15 points from yesterday, down 59.60% from the highest point of 100.00 points in the cycle (2011-09-01), and up 48.09% from the lowest point of 27.28 points on April 2, 2020.

Since the end of the Spring Festival holiday in 2021, the natural rubber spot market has experienced a rapid upward trend and continued to fluctuate and weaken after a 25% rise, of which 16287 yuan / ton on February 25 is the watershed of this round of market.

Figure 2: Trend of mainstream natural rubber prices in the first quarter of 2021

Data monitoring shows that the price of domestic natural rubber latex broke through 16000 yuan / ton on February 25, which is the highest in three years since 2018, up about 25% from 13000 yuan / ton on January 1, 2021, while the last high was 19800 yuan / ton on February 10, 2017. The price of natural rubber continued to fluctuate and decline after reaching the high point on February 25, and fell by 16.35% in the one month period to March 25.

In the first quarter of each year, China’s domestic rubber region stops cutting rubber, and Southeast Asia stops cutting rubber one after another, especially from February to March, when the output of new rubber stagnates, which is the traditional lowest supply of natural rubber. At the same time, taking the traditional Chinese Spring Festival holiday as the dividing point, trading enterprises usually choose the appropriate period to collect rubber before the festival, and after the year, after the middle of February, the downstream demand increases significantly, and the tire enterprises increase rapidly The operating rate of the industry has picked up rapidly. The lowest supply and demand rebounded sharply, and the natural rubber market rose rapidly supported by the strong spot fundamentals. However, as one of the futures varieties, natural rubber is directly affected by many repeated and miscellaneous factors in the world. In particular, the current foreign epidemic situation has a huge impact on the commodity market, and the international environment is complex and changeable. At the same time, China’s natural rubber will be cut off one after another at the end of this month and next month. The market is generally worried about the impact of new rubber listing on the market. When the market goes down, the speed is also fast Fierce.

In February, affected by the sharp drop in crude oil, the spot rubber price on the 26th dropped by about 950 yuan / ton, basically covering all the increase on the 25th. In March, the crude oil price experienced three sharp drops again. On the 9th, 18th and 23rd, the crude oil market had a great impact on the petrochemical industry and had a strong conductivity. The downstream futures commodities responded very quickly to it. The natural rubber price has dropped by 11.38% so far this month.

Figure 3: crude oil price trend since 2021

According to the analysis of the business association, at present, in terms of the output of new rubber, under the current weather conditions, less than 10% of the new rubber is cut in Yunnan producing areas in China. It is reported that the local powdery mildew is relatively serious, and it is unlikely that the new rubber will be put on the market in batches in a short period of time; the rain in Hainan producing areas is better, and the new rubber will not be cut in early next month, and the batch of new rubber in China’s domestic producing areas will be at the end of April at the fastest; the Southeast Asian producing areas will be the worst It will start cutting gradually in the middle of next month. At present, there is still a low supply period of half a month to one month. In terms of demand, the epidemic situation in foreign countries has been alleviated, and the demand for rubber products has increased. In addition, the domestic economic situation is good, and the downstream demand has increased. At present, China’s tire enterprises are producing well, and the operating rate has increased steadily. In terms of inventory, the rubber inventory and warehouse receipt coefficient of last week’s previous period decreased, and the inventory of Qingdao Free Trade Zone continued to decline. In terms of import and export, it was affected by the stock preparation Affected by the demand, from January to February, the import volume of natural rubber latex in China increased by 2.95% on a month on month basis and 41.44% on a year-on-year basis; after the year, the business started to recover well and the demand for rubber volume increased. It is preliminarily expected that the import volume will still rise in March. Based on the above factors, the current natural rubber market has strong support, but the market is generally worried about the new rubber market after half a month or even one month. At the same time, through the analysis of multiple factors such as macro-economy and external environment, the short-term trend of crude oil may have more interference factors, and the amplitude may be enlarged. In the long run, the economic recovery is still good for oil prices. Comprehensive analysis shows that in the short term, natural rubber mainly fluctuates slightly, beware of the transmission effect of large changes in crude oil, and in half a month to January, beware of the impact of new rubber listing on the market. Overall, the current economic situation is good, with increased downstream demand and better support.

Trade name: isopropanol

Latest price (March 24): 8966.67 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: on March 24, the overall trend of domestic isopropanol market was weak and stable, the downstream wait-and-see sentiment was obvious, there were many inquiries, and taking the goods was very cautious. The market price of propylene decreased, the price of acetone was high, the cost was under pressure, and the operation rate of isopropanol by acetone method was low. At present, the negotiation range of isopropanol in Shandong is about 8700-9000 yuan / ton, and that of isopropanol in Jiangsu is about 9100-9200 yuan / ton. The negotiation range of isopropanol in Zhejiang is around 9100 yuan / ton. Isopropanol business analysts believe that the downstream wait-and-see mood is obvious, poor factory demand, less new single turnover. It is expected that the market price of isopropanol will be stable temporarily in the short term.

According to statistics of business society, on March 23, the average price of domestic spot market of lint was 15786 yuan / ton, down 3.09% on a month-on-month basis, up 36.84% year on year. The maximum price limit for the new territories cotton wheel entering the competition from March 22 to March 26 was 16265 yuan / ton (converted to standard grade 3128b), down 122 yuan / ton compared with the previous week. As of the 23rd, the average price of national cotton price B index representing the market price of standard cotton in mainland China was 15753 yuan / ton, down 3.2% on a month basis.

According to the latest customs data, China imported 690000 tons of cotton from January to February, an increase of 68.3% year on year, and a cumulative import of 1.66 million tons in 20 / 21, an increase of 102.4% year on year. Icac3 forecast global production and demand in the month of 20 / 21, global consumption is 24.46 million tons, output is expected to be 24.2 million tons, and the end of the period inventory is 21.11 million tons. In March, the Ministry of rural areas produced 5.91 million tons, imported 2.2 million tons, consumed 8.1 million tons, and the end of the period inventory was 7.34 million tons.

Last week, the high-level dialogue between China and the United States has seen a large divergence in negotiations. It is pessimistic about the cotton trade expectations. The United States is the largest exporter of cotton, and China is the largest consumer of cotton. And because of the impact of the higher dollar, ice cotton should be heard, under the background of market pressure, the trend is not optimistic in the short term.

With the decline of cotton price, the mentality of downstream yarn enterprises slows down, and the market demand tends to be rational. In the middle of March, Zheng cotton continued to break down and the price of domestic yarn and imported cotton in Guangdong, Jiangsu and Zhejiang textile market dropped 500-1000 yuan / ton. In addition, the difficulty of new orders received by clothing and foreign trade companies due to the rise of raw materials and fluctuation of RMB increased. The inquiry and purchase of cotton yarn and polyester cotton yarn in textile factories, fabrics and textile enterprises slowed down significantly compared with January / February.

The market is not confident about the recovery of consumption in March and April. It was originally March of the textile peak season. Due to the high cost of raw materials in the early stage, the enterprises were cautious in receiving orders. In recent years, there are different falls in textile raw materials, the port cotton inventory is at a high level and is in a continuous rising state. In addition, the supply of imported cotton increased greatly from January to February 2021, and the supply of cotton market is in a state of abundance. It is expected that cotton market will be mainly volatile in the short term.