1、 Price trend

Many states in the United States suffered from winter storms, and a large area of factories shut down. In addition, the global currency over issued, asset inflation, all aspects of chemical raw materials began to rise. At the beginning of the new year, isooctanol has made a good start. The ex factory price of ISO octanol in Shandong Province rose sharply. The average price of mainstream ex factory quotation increased from 11000.00 yuan / ton on February 12 to 15700.00 yuan / ton on February 22, with an increase of 4700 yuan / ton in 10 days, or 42.73%, up 128.43% year on year compared with the same period last year. On February 21, the commodity index of isooctanol was 110.29.

2、 Market analysis

From the perspective of upstream and downstream industry chain:

From the perspective of the upstream industry chain, the propylene market rose sharply after the year, and the propylene price rose from 7059.55 yuan / ton on February 12 to 7761.00 yuan / ton on February 21, an increase of 9.94%. The price of raw materials in the upstream market rose sharply, affected by the supply and demand side, which had a positive impact on the price of isooctanol.

From the perspective of the downstream industry chain, the factory price of DOP will rise sharply after the year. DOP quotation increased by 30.85% from 10050.00 yuan / ton on February 12 to 13150.00 yuan / ton on February 21. The price of downstream DOP rose, downstream customers’ enthusiasm for purchasing ISO octanol increased, and the demand for ISO octanol was better. The future market operators mostly watched the trend of DOP.

Price adjustment of large factories: Shandong Jianlan Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted 16000 yuan / ton of ISO octanol on February 22, increased by 5000 yuan / ton compared with February 12; Shandong lihuayi group quoted 15100 yuan / ton of ISO octanol on February 22, increased by 4100 yuan / ton compared with February 12; Hualu Hengsheng quoted 16000 yuan / ton of ISO octanol on February 22, increased by 5000 yuan / ton compared with February 12 .

3、 Future forecast

In late February, the market trend of isooctanol in Shandong Province may fluctuate slightly. The upstream propylene market was consolidated at a high level, the raw material support was strong, the downstream DOP market rose slightly, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was enhanced, and the supply of isooctanol was insufficient. Isooctanol analysts from business news agency think: in late February, under the influence of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects, the market of isooctanol in Shandong may rise slightly.

After the Spring Festival, phenol market soared. According to the monitoring data of the business news agency, the phenol Market offer was 6675 yuan / ton on February 9, 7712.5 yuan / ton on February 20, and phenol rose by 15.54% after the festival. In terms of petrochemical plants, the listing offer was actively raised after the festival. Take the plant offer in East China as an example, the daily offer was 6790 yuan / ton on February 9, and 7460 yuan / ton on February 20, of which the mainstream offer was adjusted to 7500-7550 yuan / ton on February 20 Only Zhejiang Petrochemical continued to maintain 7200 listing and did not adjust temporarily, with an increase of 9.87% after the festival. Before and after the Spring Festival, the offers of major factories and mainstream regions are as follows:

Trend of phenol Market in main regions of China

Offer of major factories and mainstream areas around the Spring Festival

After the Spring Festival, on the first working day, the factory led the rise and boosted the market. The traders followed the offer and pushed up. With the support of the upstream and downstream, the phenol market was pushed up again near the weekend. The downstream enterprises actively resumed work and the market enthusiasm increased. They easily crossed the 7000 yuan mark and reached 8000 yuan. The reasons are as follows

Price trend of factories in East China around the Spring Festival

First, the cost side helped push up. Let’s start with crude oil. On February 17, the WTI oil price was at $61.14/barrel, and Brent was at $63.34/barrel, another year’s high. On February 18, the Brent oil price once exceeded $65 / barrel, and the international oil price hit a 13 month high. According to the monitoring of business news agency, since February, the WTI oil price has increased by 15.96%, and Brent oil price has increased by 16.15%. On the one hand, the effect of state-controlled oil production is ideal. On the other hand, the inventory of the United States and China has declined. Especially under the influence of cold weather in the United States, the operating rate of refineries has declined, the inventory of refined oil has decreased significantly, and the demand for heating oil has increased, which has a positive effect on oil prices. At present, OPEC + is still strictly implementing the production reduction agreement, and it is still necessary to continue to observe the implementation rate of production reduction in the later period. In addition, the cold wave in the United States has a temporary impact on refineries, and the output is expected to rebound in the later period, so there is resistance for the oil price to continue to rise in the short term.

In terms of raw material pure benzene, the crude oil rose sharply, and the pure benzene rose sharply. According to the monitoring data of business news agency, on February 9, Shandong pure benzene factory offered 5340 yuan / ton, and on February 20, Shandong pure benzene offered 6150 yuan / ton, with a 15.17% rise in pure benzene after the festival.

After the Spring Festival, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market rose sharply, and the price continued to rise. The price was 7060 yuan / ton on February 14, 7196 yuan / ton on February 17 and 7761 yuan / ton on February 20, with an increase of 9.94% on the 7th and 7.85% on the 4th.

Second, the downstream products reached a new high. When it comes to downstream products, bisphenol A should bear the brunt. So far, the market of bisphenol A has risen to 21000-22000 yuan / ton. Since 2020, bisphenol A has risen by 57% continuously, with a year-on-year increase of 93.5%. The price before the festival is unreachable, but surprisingly, it has reached a new high after the festival. As shown in the figure below, the market price trend of bisphenol A can be seen. Since the year of the ox, the rising trend of bisphenol a festival has reached a new high in the following years. At present, it is difficult to ease the shortage of goods in the market. The downstream epoxy resin market is rising at the same time, and the factory purchases on demand. The operators have a positive attitude and continue to be bullish. In the short term, from the perspective of supply and demand side, it will maintain the rising trend and the high level of goods will continue to dominate.

The chemical industry continued to rise after the festival, and the industrial chain became red. From the point of view of the business community, the phenol market has a good start in the new year. After the surge, there are many conflicts in the downstream. At present, the market offer is close to 8000 yuan / ton. It is expected that the port will continue to supplement next week. Although the supply side will continue to supplement, the business community expects that the phenol market will continue to push up in a narrow range or stabilize at a high level under the overall higher situation.

Before and after the long holiday, the epoxy market performance was flat, the price was stable, and the mainstream price in East China was 6800 yuan / ton.

As of today, the CFR Northeast Asia price has been slightly adjusted by US $5, and after the increase, the price is US $855 / ton, with strong cost support. After the festival, polycarboxylate monomer manufacturers were very popular, and some of them did not take the goods many years ago. We learned from the market that Sanjiang has closed its offer and delivered the orders of the year before, and Shanghai Dongda has basically not accepted the orders at present. Market participants pointed out that the current market is bullish, so they are waiting for the general rise to come true. The market of ethylene glycol in the lower reaches is strong, and the profit margin is rich. Most of the cogeneration units are converted to ethylene glycol. In addition, there are more maintenance of ethylene oxide units from the end of February to March, and the supply of ethylene oxide is tight.

Market news pointed out that tomorrow may be raised by 200-300 yuan, the market gradually entered the bull market, need to pay close attention to the latest developments.

1、 Trend analysis

On February 18, spot copper soared sharply, with a price of 62793.33 yuan / ton, up 4.13% from the previous trading day, 8.35% from the beginning of the year, and 36.59% from the same period last year, reaching a ten-year high. LME3 copper rose sharply today, closing at US $8590.5, up 2.39%. The main trend of Shanghai copper showed an upward trend, with the highest closing at 63290 yuan and the final closing at 63210 yuan, up 3.96%. The main international copper contract rose sharply, closing at 56410 yuan, or 4.21%.

Outside market up

During the Spring Festival holiday, the external market continued to soar, and the dollar index hit a three week low, which brought support to the metal market. Among them, the international copper price hit a new high in more than eight years. London Metal Exchange (LME) copper futures hit a multi-year high for the third consecutive trading day, and copper prices have risen 93% since March last year.

Supply is tight

In 2021, the supply of copper concentrate is already tight. The long-term single tc60.8 US dollars / ton, and the spot tc50 US dollars / ton. Compared with the continuous expansion of copper smelting capacity, the supply of copper concentrate is limited. At the same time, in the middle and late January, there were interference events such as Peru blockade again, Chile port storm and Las bambas copper mine blocked by the public, which made the actual supply of copper concentrate may still be lower than the original market expectation. From the perspective of seasonality, the production of refined copper is off-season from January to February. In the first quarter, domestic smelting maintenance is more concentrated, and the shortage of raw material supply may further restrict the actual output, so the refined copper output is difficult to rise significantly.

Strong demand

Under the proposal of celebrating the Chinese new year on the spot, copper demand may recover quickly after the festival, and the actual consumption is obviously better than in previous years. In terms of inventory, the average accumulated stock in January of the past four years was 14600 tons, while the stock in January 2021 was reduced by 12800 tons. According to the survey, the orders in the first quarter were relatively full, which reflected that the spot demand was really strong.

To sum up, in the case of relatively healthy supply and demand side, copper inventory may hover at a low level for a long time. After the Spring Festival, copper demand is about to enter the peak consumption season. At the same time, under the background of low overall dominant inventory, copper price has sufficient momentum to rise.

The prices of fluorite and hydrofluoric acid in the upstream fluctuated at a high level, and the market price of aluminum fluoride kept stable, but on the whole, the ex factory price of aluminum fluoride enterprises kept stable. According to the data of business news agency, the domestic price of aluminum fluoride was 9166 yuan / ton on February 5, which was the same as that at the beginning of the week.

The price of raw material fluorite is 2741.11 yuan / ton. Recently, some fluorite plants in China are generally started, and some mines and flotation plants in the plant are shut down. The fluorite supply in the plant is tight. However, the downstream market has risen recently, and the fluorite price has been affected and gone up. As of April 4, the price of fluorite in Inner Mongolia was 2600-2800 yuan / ton, and that in Inner Mongolia was 2500-2600 yuan / ton. It is expected that the price of fluorite will remain high and volatile in the future.

As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, the price of aluminum fluoride market changes little, and the overall market supply of aluminum fluoride is sufficient; the overall price of aluminum fluoride market is relatively stable.

Aluminum fluoride industry analysts of business news agency believe that: the upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid prices fluctuate at a high level, and the cost side has a limited role in boosting the aluminum fluoride Market. It is expected that the aluminum fluoride market price will rise.

Price trend

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the price of o-benzene rose in February, and the domestic o-benzene market recovered. With the continuous recovery of the upstream and downstream market, the price of o-benzene finally hit the bottom and rebounded. As of February 8, Sinopec’s price of o-xylene was 5000.00 yuan / ton, up 300 yuan / ton or 6.38% from 4700 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (February 1).

Upstream market of o-benzene

It can be seen from the price trend chart of mixed xylene that since January, the price of mixed xylene has continued to rise, with an increase of over 17%. The price of mixed xylene rises sharply, the cost of o-benzene rises, and the driving force of o-benzene increases.

Trend of downstream products

From the price trend chart of phthalic anhydride, it can be seen that since January, the price of phthalic anhydride has dropped first and then rose, and the overall price of phthalic anhydride has risen. Since late January, the price of phthalic anhydride has soared, the demand for o-benzene has risen, the market of o-benzene has improved, and the price of o-benzene has increased.

Future forecast

Bai Jiaxin, an o-xylene data analyst of business news agency, believes that since January, the price of mixed xylene has continued to rise, the cost of o-xylene has increased, the market of phthalic anhydride has bottomed out and rebounded after the middle of January, and then the price of phthalic anhydride has risen sharply, the demand for o-xylene has risen, further stimulating the price of o-xylene, and the rising pressure of o-xylene has continued to increase; the price of o-xylene has been stable since the middle of January, and the price of o-xylene has Finally, the price rose, and the rising pressure of o-benzene was released. It is expected that the price of o-benzene will be stable in the future.

According to the data monitored by the business club, as of February 8, the average quotation price of domestic premium DMF enterprises was 9666.67 yuan / ton, while the domestic DMF market price in East China was widely reduced. The atmosphere of on-site trading was cold, the downstream demand was flat, the shipment was slow, and the operation rate remained normal. At present, the supply side was sufficient, and the mainstream price range of manufacturers was 9000-10000 yuan / ton.

The focus of domestic DMF market is weak, the market in South China is mainly wait-and-see, and there is a downward trend in East China. The prices of some manufacturers are down, and the holiday atmosphere is getting stronger. Most enterprises have entered the finishing work, and individual plants will continue to the Spring Festival. The upstream methanol market is weak, and the overall market mentality is acceptable, with Changzhou 2390-2410 yuan / ton, Zhangjiagang reference 2400-2410 yuan / ton, strong wait-and-see atmosphere, South China and Northeast China mainly stable, East China has a slight rise. The overall trend is flat.

Manufacturer / region: Quotation (yuan / ton) date

Hualu Hengsheng DMF 9000 February 8

Luxi Chemical Co., Ltd.? DMF 9500 February 8

Jinmei Riyue, DMF 10500 February 8

Junhua City, Henan Province

On February 7, the DMF commodity index was 161.75, unchanged from yesterday, down 18.23% from 197.81 (2020-11-03), the highest point in the cycle, and up 140.66% from 67.21, the lowest point on February 21, 2016. (Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

Business agency DMF analysts believe: near the Spring Festival holiday, DMF market remains weak operation, after the festival will heat up, but the rise is limited.

According to the monitoring of business news agency, the price trend of domestic anhydrous hydrofluoric acid rose sharply in the past three months. As of August 8, the market price of hydrofluoric acid was 10577.78 yuan / ton, with a rise of 26.68% in the three months and 2.02% year-on-year.

Recently, the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid continues to rise. Up to now, the mainstream price of domestic hydrofluoric acid in various regions is 10000-10800 yuan / ton. The domestic hydrofluoric acid trading market is mainly rising. Recently, the domestic hydrofluoric acid spot supply is tight, and the price trend of the floor continues to rise.

The domestic spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is slightly tight. Some hydrofluoric acid plants are overhauled in the hydrofluoric acid yard, and the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market is rising. So far, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiation in the southern region is 10000-10500 yuan / ton, while the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market is 10000-11000 yuan / ton. Recently, the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid market is mainly rising, and the manufacturers reflect that they are bullish in the near future, and the price of hydrofluoric acid Market in the later period has a greater driving force.

The market price trend of fluorite, the raw material of hydrofluoric acid, rose. By the end of the month, the domestic fluorite price was 2741.11 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 4.53% in three months. Recently, the domestic fluorite spot supply was tight, and the temperature was low. Some manufacturers in the North were parking, and the supply in the yard was slightly tight. The domestic fluorite price trend rose slightly. Up to now, the mainstream of domestic fluorite negotiations is 2600-2800 yuan / ton. The high price of fluorite in the market is supported by the cost of hydrofluoric acid market. The domestic hydrofluoric acid market price is affected by the favorable support, and the trend is rising.

The domestic refrigerant market is on the rise. Recently, the automobile industry’s sales market has improved, and the refrigerant market has improved. The demand is mainly based on demand. The refrigerant industry is on the rise, and the market of various types of refrigerants has increased slightly. However, the manufacturers are under pressure to ship, the sales pressure is large, the price of raw material hydrofluoric acid is rising, which brings a certain cost support, and the export volume of refrigerants has little change The output of downstream air conditioning is low, the demand is scarce, the off-season effect of after-sales market continues, and the price of refrigerant increases little. On the whole, the positive factors support the refrigerant market generally, and the price increase is limited. At present, the load of refrigerant R22 manufacturers is not high, the inventory is in a reasonable range, and the market price remains at a low level. However, the downstream receiving capacity is limited, there is a lot of wait-and-see sentiment, the delivery of goods is not smooth, and the actual transaction focus rises slightly. Some businesses still have the phenomenon of cost inversion. The mainstream of on-site negotiations is 13500-16000 yuan / ton. Domestic R134a manufacturers reduced load operation, which supported R134a price rising. At present, the demand is not good, downstream enterprises stop work for holidays, traders withdraw from the market and wait-and-see, and logistics in some areas is out of service. At present, the market quotation of refrigerant R134a is mostly in the range of 19000-22000 yuan / ton, with high price, but the transaction atmosphere is general, the downstream refrigerant market is improving, and the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market is rising slightly.

According to the industry chain chart, the fluorine chemical industry has risen in the past three months. Near the festival, the price of raw material fluorite has remained at a high level, and the price of downstream refrigerant products has risen slightly. In addition, due to the recent overhaul of some domestic hydrofluoric acid plants, the spot supply on the site is slightly tight. Supported by multiple positive factors, Chen Ling, a hydrofluoric acid analyst in the business community, believes that the market price of hydrofluoric acid is low It will remain at a high level.

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the average ex factory price of LLDPE (7042) in East China was 7850.00 yuan / ton on January 31 and 8016.67 yuan / ton on February 9, with an increase of 2.12% and 1.69% compared with January 1.

According to the data monitoring of business society, the average ex factory price of LDPE (2426h) in East China was 10712.50 yuan / ton on January 31 and 10837.50 yuan / ton on February 9, up 1.17% during the period and down 2.58% compared with January 1.

According to the data monitoring of the business association, the average ex factory price of HDPE (5000S) in East China was 8033.33 yuan / ton on January 31, and 8266.67 yuan / ton on February 9, with an increase of 2.90% and 1.22% compared with January 1.

In February, there were two small rises in the three major spot varieties, among which, HDPE in East China was the most obvious, with a rise rate of about 250 yuan / ton. The next is LLDPE in East China, with an increase rate of about 200 yuan / ton, and LDPE in East China has the smallest increase rate, about 150 yuan / ton.

Near the Spring Festival, the spot market is dominated by favorable factors, and the price rises slightly. The first is the upstream international crude oil, which went up continuously in February to the highest level in nearly a year. On the one hand, the extremely cold weather caused by the blizzard attack in the southeast of the United States led to a rapid rise in fuel heating demand. Moreover, recently, the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC +) have continued to effectively promote production reduction, which has brought a good supply side environment to oil prices. And in the past two weeks, the sharp decline of US commercial crude oil inventories has become a direct driver to stimulate the rise of oil prices. The rise of crude oil has brought some benefits to the market.

The second is the futures market. In February, Liansu futures rose significantly, which brought some support to the market. The petrochemical enterprises slightly increased the ex factory price, the cost support was acceptable, the business mentality was good, and the tentative high report was made. On the downstream side, near the Spring Festival holiday, the downstream enterprises have the intention to prepare goods before the festival, the enthusiasm to enter the market is good, and the mentality of manufacturers is relatively strong.

On February 9, the opening price of polyethylene futures 2105 was 8030, the highest price was 8075, the lowest price was 7925, the closing price was 7995, the former settlement price was 8040, the settlement price was 7985, down 45, down 0.56%, the trading volume was 292385, the position was 307343, and the daily increase was – 18100. (quotation unit: yuan / ton)

At present, the ex factory price of petrochemicals rises slightly, and the cost support is acceptable. However, with the arrival of the Spring Festival, the transportation in some areas is blocked, and the downstream factories have holidays one after another, and the operating rate is obviously declining. Although the petrochemical enterprises have a strong mentality and continue to adjust the ex factory price, the market transaction atmosphere is light, and the enthusiasm for entering the market is not high. At present, the upstream inventory has accumulated to a certain extent, and the downstream is in conflict with the high price. It is expected that the polyethylene market will be mainly consolidated after the festival or weak.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of February 10, the average price of domestic rubber grade high-grade silica is 4700.00 yuan / ton. The holiday is coming, and the enterprise has started the holiday mode. The market situation of silica is cold, the downstream demand is flat, the stock atmosphere is cold, the overall supply and demand of the market is balanced, and the early market trend is maintained. The quotation range is between 4000-5000 yuan / ton, and the price is stable .

The domestic rubber grade silica market as a whole shows a stable operation trend, with contract orders, just need procurement as the main, the procurement atmosphere is flat, the number of new orders is limited, and most of them are mainly for negotiation. The delivery is slow near the holiday, the negotiation atmosphere is general, and the merchants are cautious in taking the goods, and the delivery is slow. The latest enterprise prices are Shandong Lihua 4600 yuan / ton, Boai xiang4200 yuan / ton, Shandong Shouguang 5300 yuan / ton. Maintain the early market trend.

On February 9, the silica commodity index was 105.86, unchanged from yesterday, down 3.42% from 109.61 (2020-11-11), the highest point in the cycle, and up 18.40% from 89.41, the lowest point on October 7, 2016. (Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

The upstream hydrochloric acid inventory is high and the delivery is slow. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, the enterprises have holidays one after another. The downstream demand is limited, and the overall market is weak. As of February 9, 2021, the hydrochloric acid manufacturers in North China have stable quotations and maintain the early operation trend.

On February 9, the hydrochloric acid commodity index was 48.68, flat with yesterday, down 51.32% from the highest point of 100.00 in the cycle (2011-09-12), and up 170.75% from the lowest point of 17.98 on September 5, 2012. (Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

On February 9, the chemical industry index was 875 points, 2 points higher than yesterday, 13.88% lower than 1016 points (2012-03-13), the highest point in the cycle, and 46.32% higher than 598 points, the lowest point on April 8, 2020. (Note: period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now)

According to the white carbon black analysts of business news agency, with the coming of Spring Festival holiday, various enterprises have entered the holiday mode one after another, and the white carbon black market has maintained a stable operation trend with flat demand.