Monthly rise of 13.39%, a new 9-year high

According to the data of business news agency, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China on February 26 was 17280 yuan / ton, up 13.39% from 15240 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (February 1).

Aluminum prices soared sharply in February. On the 25th, they broke through the historical high of nearly nine years set in early December. On the 26th, they moved down slightly, still being the second historical high of nearly nine years.

The main cause of the surge

Aluminum prices rose sharply in February mainly due to the following factors:

1. Macro policy

The news of the US $1.9 trillion epidemic relief plan combined with the effective promotion and use of vaccines, the strengthening of the expectation of economic recovery for the better of the epidemic situation, and the expectation of infrastructure stimulus policy, helped the outbreak of the metal market.

On the other hand, the outbreak of inflation trading exceeded expectations, and the commodity market ushered in a strong rise cycle.

2. The proportion of water supply is high, and the output and inventory of extruded aluminum ingots are low

In January 2021, the weighted proportion of molten aluminum in the aluminum industry was 64.61%, only 3.61% lower than that of the previous month; that is to say, the monthly increase of aluminum ingots was about 120000 tons, about 180000 tons lower than that of the previous year.

At present, there is a small accumulation of social inventory, and it is more than 1 million tons after the festival, which is in line with the market expectation; after the festival, the accumulated inventory of the factory is 114700-235500 tons, which is relatively small.

3. Production capacity control

According to market news, Inner Mongolia will implement capacity control on electrolytic aluminum with high energy consumption because it fails to achieve the goal of “double control” of energy consumption. It is rumored that electrolytic aluminum plants in eastern Inner Mongolia may reduce production because the overall energy consumption of the autonomous region is not up to standard in 2020. According to feedback from information sources, Jinlian, HuoMei and other electrolytic aluminum plants will initially plan to reduce production in the nature of maintenance, which may affect the annual production capacity in eastern Inner Mongolia in October About 10000 tons.

Since late January, the market of bisphenol A has soared to a new peak in the chemical industry sector. After the Spring Festival, bisphenol A has entered a new peak in the year of the ox. According to the monitoring data of business news agency, in 2021, the market of bisphenol a rose from 13225 yuan / ton on January 1 to 24666 yuan / ton on February 25, an increase of 87%. Since the afternoon of the 24th, the market has entered a quiet period. Although the market is slightly loose on the 25th, it is still at a high level, and it is difficult to go down later.

Before the festival, the main reason for bisphenol A’s “bull market” was the lack of market supply and the warming demand. After the sharp rise and fall in 2020, the market supply is extremely tight. At this time, the expected improvement of the downstream epoxy resin industry is mainly driven by the rise of resin after the wind power makes up for the fall. Before the festival, the bisphenol a market is greatly higher, reaching a high of 19000 yuan / ton near the Spring Festival. However, there are many uncertain factors after the Spring Festival, and most traders dare not stock, while factories are not Most of the production is in the supporting downstream devices, and the external sales volume is limited. After the Spring Festival, the market of bisphenol A has reached a new high in the past ten years. The main reasons are as follows:

First of all, the most important thing is the surge of crude oil during the holiday, coupled with the extremely cold weather in the United States, which forced more than 50 enterprises to stop production unexpectedly. In February, international crude oil futures continued to rise. As of February 25, WTI crude oil rose by 21.11% and Brent crude oil rose by 20.24%. At present, the international oil price has reached a new high in nearly 13 months. Oil prices continue to rise. At the macro level, there is pressure from the depreciation of the US dollar. At the micro level, the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC +) continue to spare no effort to limit production, and the US commercial crude oil inventory has declined for several consecutive weeks. All these pave the way for the rise of oil prices. On the demand side, on the one hand, affected by the epidemic situation, vaccination has been promoted, and the economic recovery is expected to continue to heat up. In the past two weeks, the United States has been hit by snowstorms. Under the influence of extremely cold weather, the refinery units in Texas have been shut down. The rapid decline of production has gradually evolved into a short-term energy crisis, which has also accelerated the pace of oil price rise.

Secondly, from the perspective of cost, the consumption rate of phenol in the production unit of bisphenol A accounts for 0.87, the production cost of bisphenol A accounts for a large proportion, and the price of bisphenol A is strongly supported by the upward trend of phenol after the festival. After the Spring Festival, the first day of the bill rose sharply, affected by the holiday crude oil surge, the first working day after the festival, all products are making a good start, the market heat is rising, especially in the chemical industry circle, the price rise information has opened a variety of screen mode. Entering the year of the ox, the phenol market has been growing all the way to new heights. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the phenol Market offer was 6675 yuan / ton on February 17. So far, the phenol Market offer was 8587 yuan / ton, an increase of 28.65%. Moreover, the plant is also making constant efforts. After the festival, Sinopec’s North China phenol has been increased by nearly 2000 yuan / ton, and the East China phenol plant has increased by 1600 yuan / ton, implementing 8500 yuan / ton. The East China plant’s offer has increased from 6790 yuan / ton to 8500 yuan / ton, an increase of 25%. Acetone, another important raw material, has gone through a wave of upward trend before the festival. After the festival, the guiding price of acetone in North China of Sinopec has been increased by 1200 yuan / ton, while that in East China has been increased by 900-1200 yuan / ton, and 9000-9300 yuan / ton has been implemented. Raw materials continue to rise, cost side support bisphenol a market continues to rise.

On the demand side, first, the downstream epoxy resin continued to be supported by the terminal wind power industry, and continued to march forward. As of February 25, the negotiated price of liquid resin in East China reached 31000 yuan / ton, up 16.8% compared with 26500 yuan / ton on February 17. Solid resin is also on the rise, with the guiding price of 26500 yuan / ton. With the support of raw materials and the demand of downstream wind power and coating industry, the epoxy resin factory has been in the state of suspension of offer, and has been focusing on historical order production. Second, the downstream PC products. On the whole, the industry started at 60%. After the restart of Dafeng device, the operation was stable, and the raw materials rose sharply before the festival. However, this product is difficult to digest. Most factories are short of raw materials. After the festival, the raw materials continue to rise, and the PC upward speed lags behind, but it also keeps rising with the pace. On the whole, the rigid demand procurement is the main, and the transaction activity still needs to be improved.

From the perspective of the whole phenol ketone industry chain, the overall rise was the main trend. The upstream pure benzene and propylene showed a significant upward trend after the festival, followed by the intermediate and downstream products. From the macro point of view, WTI crude oil increased by 21.11%, Brent crude oil increased by 20.24%, and the surge of crude oil after the festival formed a good support for petrochemical products.

From the perspective of business community, bisphenol A is extremely dazzling among many rising chemicals. From the surge of crude oil during the holidays to the extremely cold weather in the United States, from the surge of phenol ketone industry chain as a whole to the frequent rise of major products in the chemical industry circle, the market of bisphenol a has reached a ten-year high. At present, on the one hand, the arrival time of import and export goods is delayed, and the profit contracts of factories are cleaned up near the end of the month. On the other hand, the downstream market is facing a new situation It will take time to digest, and the market of bisphenol A will stay for a short time. However, in March, Taiwan Changchun and South Asia bisphenol A have maintenance plans, and the market circulation spot resources are limited, while the import source is delayed. The market spot resources are still tight in March. The business community expects that there will be high consolidation or continue to push up in March. However, from the perspective of the downstream, the current downstream cost pressure is huge, the loss is serious, the downstream acceptance is limited, and the risk is increasing In addition, the downstream market demand and acceptance of the industrial chain will determine the bisphenol a market.

1、 Price trend:

According to the data of the business club’s block list, the domestic PA6 market was active in late February, and the spot price rose rapidly recently. As of February 24, the mainstream offer price of sample enterprises for Zhongyou 2.75-2.85 was about 15333.33 yuan / ton, 20.73% higher than the average price level at the beginning of the month.

2、 The influencing factors were analyzed

Upstream, domestic caprolactam market is also rising. The price of pure benzene rose continuously, which strongly supported the cost of caprolactam. Affected by the cold weather in the United States, many refineries shut down. Crude oil and chemicals rose sharply, supporting the domestic market. At the same time, caprolactam supply has not been substantially improved, the fundamentals are good, and the market direction is clear. Caprolactam market is expected to continue optimistic trend.

Raw material caprolactam market is strong, the cost of PA6 support is strong. As early as before the festival, the demand for PA6 chips rose due to the small peak of stock preparation before the festival, and there was no pressure on the inventory of polymerization plants, and some of them oversold. Under the influence of local new year’s promotion, the downstream industry resumed work rapidly after the new year, especially the spinning enterprises’ demand for PA6 started ahead of time. Coupled with the shortage of international chemicals supply, the current bulk commodity prices are stronger, which generally boost the product prices of the plasticizing industry chain.

3、 Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that: in late February, the domestic market of PA6 was strong, and the main positive impact came from the strong market of raw material caprolactam. The cost of PA6 was stable and strong. The strong external market PA6 also boosted the domestic spot price. In addition to the current inflation expectations in the macro market, the price of PA6 is expected to continue to rise.

Trend analysis

According to the data monitoring of the business association, the domestic cobalt price is rising after the festival, and the cobalt market is soaring. As of February 23, the cobalt price was 381333.34 yuan / ton, up 14.92% from 331833.34 yuan / ton on February 9. The cobalt price quoted by some businesses exceeded 40000 yuan / ton, and the cobalt market entered the “four times”.

MB cobalt price after the festival

Time ﹣ category ﹣ specification ﹣ lowest price ﹣ rise and fall ﹣ highest price ﹣ rise and fall ﹣ unit

February 9 ﹣ standard cobalt ﹣ 22 ﹣ 0.25 ﹣ 22.35 ﹣ 0 ﹣ USD / lb

February 9 – alloy grade cobalt 22 0.25 22.3 0 USD / lb

February 10 – standard cobalt 22.0 22.35.0 USD / lb

February 10 – alloy grade cobalt $22.0 $22.3 $0 / lb

February 11 – standard cobalt 22.25 0.25 22.75 0.4 USD / lb

February 11 – alloy grade cobalt 22.25 0.25 22.75 0.45 USD / lb

February 12 ﹣ standard cobalt ﹣ 22.5 ﹣ 0.25 ﹣ 22.75 ﹣ 0 ﹣ USD / lb

February 12 – alloy grade cobalt 22.5 0.25 22.75 0 USD / lb

February 15 ﹣ standard cobalt ﹣ 22.75 ﹣ 0.25 ﹣ 23.15 ﹣ 0.4 ﹣ USD / lb

February 15 – alloy grade cobalt 22.75 0.25 23.15 0.4 USD / pound

February 16 ﹣ standard cobalt ﹣ 22.25 ﹣ 23.15 ﹣ 0 ﹣ USD / lb

February 16 – alloy grade cobalt 22.25-23.15-0 USD / lb

February 17 ﹣ standard cobalt ﹣ 22.9 ﹣ 0.15 ﹣ 23.35 ﹣ 0.2 ﹣ USD / lb

February 17 – alloy grade cobalt 23 0.25 23.7 0.55 USD / lb

February 18 ﹣ standard cobalt ﹣ 22.95 ﹣ 0.05 ﹣ 23.75 ﹣ 0.4 ﹣ USD / lb

February 18 – alloy grade cobalt 23.0 23.7 0 USD / lb

February 19 – standard cobalt 23 0.05 23.75 0 USD / lb

February 19 – alloy grade cobalt 23 0 23.75 0.05 USD / lb

February 22 – standard cobalt 23.5-0.5-24-0.25 USD / lb

February 22 – alloy grade cobalt 23.5-0.5-24-0.25 USD / lb

It can be seen from the price list of MB cobalt that since the Spring Festival, the quotation of MB standard grade cobalt has increased from $22-22.35/pound on February 10 to $23.5-24/pound on February 22; the quotation of alloy grade cobalt has increased from $22-22.3/pound on February 10 to $23.5-24/pound on February 22. The sharp rise of international cobalt price stimulates the rise of domestic cobalt price, and the rising power of domestic cobalt market increases.

General rise of nonferrous plate drives cobalt market up

It can be seen from the bar chart of the nonferrous metal index of the business association that the nonferrous metal index rose sharply after the festival, and the market of nonferrous metal plate rose generally, which led to the rise of cobalt price.

High nickel price inhibits cobalt free battery

As can be seen from the monthly K-bar chart of nickel price of the business community, except for the first quarter of 2020 when the nickel price was affected by the epidemic, the nickel price rose generally in the second, third and fourth quarters. In 2020, the nickel price rose by 12.66%, compared with the cobalt price rose by 2.31% in the same period. The nickel price rose significantly, and the rising nickel price increased the cost of cobalt free ternary battery, which was less than expected in the market With the increase of expectation, the rising power of cobalt price increases.

Market Overview

Bai Jiaxin, data analyst of business news agency, believes that the general rise of nonferrous plate drives the rise of cobalt market, and the sharp rise of international cobalt price stimulates the further rise of domestic cobalt price. In February, cobalt price ushered in a small peak and entered the four times of cobalt market. In the long run, 3C businesses such as new energy vehicles and mobile phones are prominent, and there is sufficient demand in the cobalt market. However, the promotion of cobalt free batteries is less than expected, and the demand in the cobalt market is expected to increase. On the supply side, Africa is affected by the epidemic, and the supply is limited, so the risk of insufficient supply is high, and the risk of insufficient supply is high Cobalt market has sufficient momentum to rise. There is a huge room for cobalt price to rise. Generally speaking, the risk of short-term cobalt price decline is large, and the long-term cobalt market has sufficient momentum. Cobalt – worth long-term possession.

According to the data monitored by the business club, as of February 23, the average price of domestic power high-grade product lithium iron phosphate was 42000.00 yuan / ton. After the festival, the price of lithium iron phosphate rose widely. Due to the rising raw materials, lithium iron phosphate rose passively, with a daily increase of 1000 yuan / ton.

Due to the soaring price of upstream lithium carbonate, the price of LiFePO4 rises passively, the purchase of raw materials is cautious, and the bullish atmosphere is strong. The price range of LiFePO4 power type market is 42000-46000 yuan / ton. At present, the price range of energy storage type LiFePO4 is 38000-40000 yuan / ton, and the inventory is normal. The negotiation atmosphere is general, and the new orders have increased. Most of them are contract customers, while the upstream lithium carbonate industry is not The price of industrial grade lithium carbonate is 73000-76000 yuan / ton, and that of battery grade lithium carbonate is 77000-79000 yuan / ton. In the short term, it will maintain a high level, and the rising space is limited. It is mainly used in new energy vehicles, energy storage and other fields, among which the new energy vehicle industry is the largest one. In recent years, the market development of LiFePO4 battery is slower than that of ternary lithium battery due to the weakness of battery life. According to the statistics of China Battery Industry Association, the output of lithium iron phosphate materials for lithium batteries in China in 2020 is only about 143000 tons.

On February 22, the lithium carbonate commodity index was 185.99, up 1.02 points from yesterday, down 54.09% from 405.10 points (2018-01-07), the highest point in the cycle, and up 88.75% from 98.54 points, the lowest point on October 16, 2014. (Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

Business community LiFePO4 analysts believe that: in the short term to maintain a high level of operation, rising space is limited.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s block list, the average ex factory price of powdered monoammonium was 2416.67 yuan / ton on February 23, and 2134.67 yuan / ton on February 17. After the festival, it rose by 13.21%, 15.01% on a month on month basis, and 25% on a year-on-year basis.

According to the data of the business club’s block list, on February 23, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium was 2673.33 yuan / ton, and on February 17, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium was 2490 yuan / ton, with a sharp rise of 7.36% after the festival and a flat month on month, up 21.51% year on year.

2、 Market analysis

After the festival, crude oil led the energy and chemical industry plate to advance rapidly, and the price of monoammonium phosphate rose with the trend. In the first week after the festival, the price of monoammonium phosphate increased slightly by about 3%, waiting for the market reaction. Entering this week, the rising trend continued and was strong. By the 23rd, it had risen by more than 13%, and there was no intention of a correction. This rise is mainly due to the rising prices of raw materials and the multiple positive blessings of the rising demand. The focus of the market has begun to move upward. Although some enterprises still suspend quotation, the rising atmosphere is high, the market is expected to be better, and the price is expected to continue to rise. Anhui Province 55% ammonium powder factory offer 2285 yuan / ton. The price of 55% ammonium powder in Hubei Province is 2250-2650 yuan / ton. The price of 55% ammonium powder in Henan Province is about 2400-2250 yuan / ton. The price of 55% ammonium powder in Sichuan is about 2400 yuan / ton. The price of 55% ammonium powder in Shandong Province is about 2300-2350 yuan / ton.

After the price of DAP was stable last week, it rose actively this week. At present, the price has increased by more than 7%, and the quotation has exceeded 3000 mark. At present, most enterprises still suspend quotation, but the high price is frequent, the export is still good, the supply is still tight, the enterprises have no pressure to ship, in addition, the spring ploughing is approaching, the raw materials are rising sharply, and there are multiple positive supports. The operators have a positive attitude and are optimistic about the future market. In Hubei Province, 64% of diammonium enterprises stop reporting, while in Shaanxi Province, 64% of diammonium mainstream ex factory quotation is 2950-3040 yuan / ton. The price of 64% diammonium in Yunnan is 3300-3430 yuan / ton. In Guizhou Province, the main price of 64% diammonium was 3300 yuan / ton, while in Heilongjiang Province, the price of 64% diammonium received in advance at the first station rose to about 3050 yuan / ton.

In terms of raw materials, on February 23, the domestic sulfur market rose broadly, with solid sulfur rising by 80-100 yuan / ton, and liquid sulfur in East China also rising by nearly 100 yuan / ton. At present, refineries in various regions of China are operating in low inventory, the supply of sulfur in the yard is tight, and the quotation of sulfur is rising. The export market of downstream phosphate fertilizer continues to improve. In addition, the domestic spring cultivation fertilizer is approaching, which is good for the sulfur market, and the sulfur market in the future will remain stable High level operation, pay attention to the downstream follow-up situation.

3、 Future forecast

According to the analysts of business news agency, the current market of ammonium phosphate is positive, the prices of raw materials are soaring, the cost side support is strong, and the demand side is improving with the coming of spring ploughing, the market prices of monoammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate are rising. With spring ploughing approaching, it is expected that map will still rise in the short term under the mentality of buying up but not down. Diammonium phosphate is mainly for export, and the international price is still high, which will boost the domestic market. The main enterprise will send orders, and the shipment is not under pressure. It is expected that the price will still rise in the short term.

1、 Price trend

After the lunar new year, the domestic isopropanol market price continued to rise. According to the data monitoring of bulk commodities, the average price of the first working day of the new year was 8133.33 yuan / ton on February 18, and 9533.33 yuan / ton on February 23, with a price increase of 17.21%.

2、 Market analysis

At present, there are many inquiries about isopropanol in the market. Affected by the cost, all isopropanol produced by acetone method will be shut down after this year. The overall operation rate of isopropanol is lower than that in previous years after the festival. The factories all say that the inventory is low. The market price of isopropanol was pushed up by the active speculation of cargo holders. So far, the negotiation range of acetone isopropanol in Shandong is about 9000-9200 yuan / ton, that of Ningbo is about 9600 yuan / ton, and that of Jiangsu is about 9500 yuan / ton.

Figure: price trend comparison of acetone and isopropanol from December to February

3、 Future forecast

Isopropanol analyst of Shangshe Chemical Branch said: the price of raw material acetone rose, the average price of acetone in Shandong was 8675 yuan / ton today, and propylene market price in Shandong increased, with the average price of 8527.27 yuan / ton today. Cost side support is strong, traders hold limited, isopropanol market prices push up. Isopropanol still has room to rise in the short term, so we should pay attention to the news changes of isopropanol in the future.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of phthalic anhydride in the domestic market rose sharply after the Spring Festival. As of the 22nd, the quotation of phthalic anhydride was 7250 yuan / ton, with a one-day increase of 17.41%. Recently, the price of phthalic anhydride rose sharply, the spot supply on the floor was normal, and the market of phthalic anhydride soared.

In recent years, the market price of phthalic anhydride has risen sharply, the market situation of phthalic anhydride is normal, the downstream demand has increased recently, the price trend of o-benzene has remained high, the plasticizer market has risen sharply, and the price of phthalic anhydride has skyrocketed. Domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers started at a low level. The operating rate of phthalic anhydride on the site was about 60%. The domestic phthalic anhydride spot supply was slightly tight. The price of phthalic anhydride on the site rose, and the downstream plasticizer industry rose sharply. The actual transaction was obviously good, and the price of phthalic anhydride rose. The price trend of phthalic anhydride market in East China is rising, with limited high-end transactions in the market. The mainstream of neighboring France source negotiation in East China is 7200-7500 yuan / ton, and naphthalene method source negotiation is 6800-7000 yuan / ton. The mainstream quotation of phthalic anhydride market in North China is 7000-7200 yuan / ton. The market outlook of phthalic anhydride still exists, and the downstream procurement has improved. After the festival, the downstream DOP price has risen sharply, which gives the phthalic anhydride market a strong support Certain positive support, affected phthalic anhydride market prices skyrocketed.

In recent years, the domestic price of o-benzene has been rising mainly, and the market price has remained at the level of 5500 yuan / ton. The rising domestic price of o-benzene is a good support for the phthalic anhydride market. In addition, the import price of o-benzene in the port area has been rising, and the external quotation of o-benzene has been rising. The actual transaction price is subject to negotiation and detailed discussion. In addition, the strong wait-and-see mood of o-benzene merchants in the market, the price of o-benzene has been rising, and the raw material price has been rising The price rise of o-benzene is good for the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride, and the market price of phthalic anhydride continues to rise.

After the festival, the market price of the downstream DOP of phthalic anhydride rose sharply. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the domestic DOP price was 13900 yuan / ton as of the 22nd, the price of isooctanol in the market rose sharply, the cost of DOP raw materials rose, the equipment start-up of DOP Enterprises was temporarily stable, the price of PVC fluctuated and rose, and the demand of the next tourists recovered. The plasticizer market has increased momentum, and the transaction price is subject to the real-time price. The overall DOP price is about 14000-14500 yuan / ton. The future DOP market has increased momentum, and the domestic phthalic anhydride price has skyrocketed due to the favorable support from the downstream.

In general, the recent strong trend of crude oil price, coupled with the sharp rise of downstream plasticizer industry, the market of phthalic anhydride is affected by the superposition of positive factors. It is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride will continue to rise after the festival.

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, as of February 22, the reference ex factory price of domestic industrial grade propylene glycol was 14433 yuan / ton, which increased by 1267 yuan / ton or 9.62% compared with February 10 (reference price was 13166 yuan / ton), and the average price increased by 1167 yuan / ton or 8.79% compared with February 1 (reference price was 13266 yuan / ton).

After the festival, the domestic propylene glycol market ushered in a wide range, full of driving force

After the Spring Festival, the domestic industrial grade propylene glycol market ushered in the “first rise” in the year of the ox. On the first day of construction, driven by the rising price of raw material propylene oxide, the cost of propylene glycol increased continuously. The factory and operators had a positive attitude, and the market quotation was stable and firm. On the 19th and 20th, the quotation of propylene glycol factory was increased by 300-500 yuan / ton. Then, the market was running at a high level, and the downstream demand of propylene glycol just needed to purchase. Under the fear of rising, the trading atmosphere was good, and the export performance was good On the 22nd, the market price of propylene glycol continued to rise by 500-1000 yuan / ton for 4 consecutive days. After the festival, the biggest rise of propylene glycol was nearly 2000 yuan / ton. At present, the factory price of domestic industrial grade propylene glycol is about 14000-14800 yuan / ton, with the average reference price of 14433 yuan / ton, compared with 13166 yuan / ton before the Spring Festival The average price has increased by 1267 yuan / ton, or 9.62%.

In terms of raw materials, after the festival, the market price of propylene oxide in Shandong continued to rise, the factory inventory pressure was small, the downstream demand was normal, and the sales were relatively smooth. On the 22nd, the ex factory price of propylene oxide in Shandong continued to rise sharply by 500-800 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price was around 18000-18700 yuan / ton. According to the data monitoring of business society, the ex factory average price of propylene oxide in Shandong was 18333 yuan / ton, up 1533 yuan / ton, or 9.13% compared with the price before the Spring Festival.

The short-term trend of propylene glycol continues to improve, and it is still possible to continue to rise

At present, the purchasing atmosphere of propylene glycol downstream after the festival is good, the factory inventory pressure is small, and the spot is tight. Therefore, in terms of the current trading atmosphere, the propylene glycol analysts of the business community believe that before the end of the month, the propylene glycol market has a big shock, the downside risk is small, and the overall market is high and strong. Driven by raw materials and the general rise of the downstream, the market still has the possibility to continue to rise, and more needs to be done in the future Pay attention to the transmission of consumption and the change of mentality.

1、 Price trend of propylene oxide

(Figure: p-value curve of propylene oxide product)

2、 Market analysis

According to the data of the business club’s block list, as of February 22, the average quotation price of propylene oxide enterprises was 18333.33 yuan / ton, up 9.13% compared with the price on February 17, up 2.33% compared with the price on January 22, and down 3.17% over the same period of three months.

After the festival, propylene oxide market continued to rise. In terms of raw materials, the price of propylene has risen continuously in recent years, while the price of liquid chlorine is on the decline. In terms of factories, the production and sales of factories in the region are stable and smooth, with no pressure on inventory. The downstream polyether raw materials are rising, and some terminal factories are returning to the market in succession, maintaining the demand for purchasing, and the overall transmission is smooth. At present, the mainstream quotation of propylene oxide Market in Shandong is around 17700-18200 yuan / ton.

Price fluctuation of propylene oxide Market before and after the Spring Festival (unit: yuan / ton)

Region. 10 day price, 18 day price, 22 day price

In East China, 16700-1690017200-1740018200-18400

Shandong Province, 16400-1660016800-1690017700-18200

Upstream propylene, as of February 20, Shandong propylene market price continued to rise. According to the price chart of the business club, the price of propylene declined all the way at the end of January, rose slightly at the end of the month, and then began to stabilize. On the 8th, the price of enterprises generally dropped by 50 yuan / ton, and then entered the Spring Festival holiday. Most of them remained stable in the first half of the year, while the price in the second half (from February 15) showed a steady upward trend. The 18th was the first day of official work, and up to today, the price rose by about 200 yuan / ton every day It has reached 7700 ~ 7950 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price has risen to about 7700 yuan / ton.

The downstream propylene glycol, according to the monitoring data of the business community, as of February 22, the factory price of domestic industrial grade propylene glycol reference 14433.33 yuan / ton, increased by 8.35% compared with the price before the festival (February 10); the downstream flexible foam polyether, on February 22, the market price of flexible foam polyether in Shandong area increased in a wide range, the raw material propylene oxide rose strongly, the cost support was strong, and some small terminal plants resumed work one after another At present, the mainstream price of common soft foam polyether market in Shandong is around 18800-19200 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

According to the propylene oxide analysts of business news agency, at present, the price of double raw materials fluctuates with each other. The production and sales of the factory are stable and smooth, and the inventory is free from pressure. The downstream polyether and propylene glycol follow the rise of raw materials. The terminal enterprises start to recover gradually, and the overall market conduction is smooth, which will boost the mentality of the industry. It is expected that the propylene oxide market may be strong in the short term, and the specific trend still needs to pay attention to the market news Quote.