Trend analysis

According to the data monitoring of the business association, the price of cobalt rose sharply in January 2020, and the market of cobalt recovered to rise in the new year. As of January 30, the cobalt price was 324666.66 yuan / ton, up 19.07% from 272666.66 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (January 1); the new year’s Cobalt market ushered in a sharp rise, the biggest increase since March 2017.

Trend of cobalt price in LME Market

It can be seen from the LME cobalt price trend chart that the LME cobalt price rose sharply in January. After a year’s fluctuation adjustment of cobalt price in 2020, the global cobalt market recovers in the new year, and the international cobalt price re welcomes the surge. The rise of international cobalt price is good for the domestic cobalt market, and the domestic cobalt market has increased momentum.

Domestic mobile phone production and sales data

According to the data released by China Academy of information technology, in December 2020, the total shipment of domestic mobile phone market was 26.595 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 12.6%; from January to December, the total shipment of domestic mobile phone market was 308 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 20.8%. In December 2020, the domestic market 5g mobile phone shipment was 18.2 million, accounting for 68.4% of the mobile phone shipment in the same period. According to data released by IDC, mobile phone shipments in the fourth quarter of 2020 reached 385.9 million units, a year-on-year increase of 16 million units. In December, the sales of mobile phones declined, but the year-on-year decline was reduced. The decline of mobile phone market shipment slowed down, and the mobile phone market showed an upward trend. The rising global mobile phone shipment in the fourth quarter eased the tension in the mobile phone market. 5g mobile phones are gradually gaining strength, and the mobile phone market may usher in a wave of replacement. 5g mobile phones will become a new growth point in the market. However, the sales of mobile phones in the whole 20 years still have a large decline compared with that in the 19 years, and the mobile phone market will be in a better shape The market has limited support for the cobalt market. With the outbreak of 5g mobile phones, the mobile phone market is expected to rise in 2021, and the demand for cobalt is expected to rise sharply, which is more favorable for the cobalt market.

Domestic new energy vehicle market

According to the statistics of China Automobile Association, in December, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 235000 and 248000 respectively, with a year-on-year growth of 55.7% and 49.5% respectively. In 2020, the production and sales of new energy vehicles will be 1.366 million and 1.367 million respectively, with a year-on-year growth of 7.5% and 10.9% respectively. The annual market is better than expected. The rise of new energy automobile industry in the weak environment of automobile industry reflects the prospect of new energy automobile industry, and also indicates that new energy automobile has entered an outbreak period. New energy automobile is expected to enter a surge period in the 21st year. China Automobile Association predicts that the sales volume of new energy automobile will increase by 40% in 2021. The explosion of new energy vehicle industry and the surge of demand in cobalt market are favorable to the cobalt market, and the rising power of cobalt price is increased.

Global new energy vehicle market

According to EV volumz, a global electric vehicle research company, in December 2020, the global sales volume of electric vehicles was 590000, an increase of 40% on a month on month basis. In 2020, the global sales of electric vehicles will be 3.24 million, up 43% year on year. The global sales of new energy vehicles soared, which was good for the global cobalt market, with sufficient support for the rise of cobalt price.

Market Overview

Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at business news agency, believes that since the new year, the cobalt market seems to be getting “stimulant”, the cobalt price has soared, and the cobalt market is booming again. But can the cobalt market last long, and what’s the space for the cobalt price to rise in the future? It still deserves our attention. From the demand side, there are signs of recovery in the mobile phone market, which is good for the cobalt market, but the overall production and sales of the mobile phone market are still slightly insufficient, with Limited good for the cobalt market, and insufficient power for the cobalt price to rise in the future; with the soaring demand for new energy vehicles, there is sufficient power for the cobalt market to rise, but the continuous growth of the sales volume of new energy vehicles in the second half of 2020 does not bring a corresponding rise to the cobalt price It remains to be seen whether the price rise is a retaliatory rise or a surge in demand. The recovery of the global cobalt market also plays a stimulating role in the domestic cobalt market, which is generally good, but it still needs time to test the global cobalt Market’s recovery of 19 years. On the whole, there is sufficient momentum for the rise of cobalt market, and there is still room for the rise of cobalt price in the future, but the demand of cobalt market is still difficult to support the continuous rise of cobalt price. It is expected that the rise of cobalt price in the future will slow down, and the cobalt price will rise slowly in February.

Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business association, affected by the shortage of acetic acid, the market of acetic anhydride rose sharply in January, and the price of acetic anhydride rose sharply. As of January 30, the price of acetic anhydride was 8133.33 yuan / ton, up 9.91% from 7400.00 yuan / ton in early January. The price of acetic anhydride rose for four consecutive months.

Acetic acid price trend

As can be seen from the price trend chart of acetic acid, the price of acetic acid rose sharply in January, and the cost of raw materials for acetic anhydride rose. Because the acetic acid enterprises stop to reduce the load more, the operating rate of acetic acid is low, the supply of acetic acid is insufficient, the shortage of acetic acid is increasing, the rising power of acetic acid is increasing, the cost of acetic anhydride is rising, and the rising power of acetic anhydride is increasing.

Methanol price trend

It can be seen from the methanol price trend chart that the methanol price fluctuated and adjusted in January, the overall methanol price fell slightly, the methanol price of acetic anhydride raw material was stable, the acetic anhydride cost was stable, and the power of acetic anhydride rising was limited.

Monthly rise and fall of acetic anhydride price

From the monthly K-bar chart of acetic anhydride price, it can be seen that the price of acetic anhydride has increased for four consecutive months since October 2020. Affected by the decline of equipment start-up of acetic anhydride enterprises and the rise of raw material costs, the price of acetic anhydride has been rising continuously since October 2020, and the price of acetic anhydride remains high.

Market summary and future forecast

Bai Jiaxin, an acetic anhydride data analyst at business news agency, believes that the sharp rise in acetic acid prices has driven the rise in acetic anhydride prices. However, with the stable equipment start-up of acetic acid enterprises, the shortage of acetic acid has been alleviated. With the loss of support, the price of acetic acid is expected to stabilize or fall in the future, the cost of raw materials for acetic anhydride is declining, and the price of acetic anhydride is out of support. Moreover, with the coming of the new year, the number of acetic anhydride downstream enterprises is increasing, the downstream customers are more resistant to high price acetic anhydride, and the driving force of acetic anhydride rising is weakened. Generally speaking, the cost support of acetic anhydride in the future is insufficient, the demand support is declining, the price of acetic anhydride is weak and stable before the year, and acetic anhydride may face retaliatory growth after the year.

Price trend

According to the data monitoring of business association, the plasticizer DOP market recovered this week, and the price of DOP rose slightly. As of January 30, the DOP price was 9550.00 yuan / ton, up 1.60% from 9400.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week.

Upstream market of industrial chain

It can be seen from the price trend chart of isooctanol that the price of isooctanol fluctuated and rose this week, the transaction of isooctanol was good, the price was firm, the overall market of isooctanol was firm, the cost of DOP raw materials fluctuated and rose, the rising power of DOP increased, and the downward pressure weakened.

It can be seen from the trend chart of phthalic anhydride that the price of phthalic anhydride rose slightly this week, the market of phthalic anhydride recovered, the cost of raw material phthalic anhydride of DOP rose, the downward pressure of DOP weakened, and the upward momentum increased.

Downstream market of industrial chain

It can be seen from the PVC price trend chart that this week, PVC prices rose, PVC market recovered, DOP demand rose, DOP downstream market recovered, plasticizer DOP market increased.

Market summary and future expectation

Bai Jiaxin, DOP data analyst of business news agency, believes that this week, DOP raw material ISO octanol and phthalic anhydride prices fluctuated, DOP raw material costs rose, DOP price rising momentum increased; downstream PVC market recovered, DOP demand increased, DOP rising momentum increased. DOP enterprises started at a low level, and the operating rate was maintained at about 60%. Generally speaking, the DOP cost rises, the DOP rising power increases, the downstream market rises, and the DOP market warms up. DOP prices are expected to rise in the future. With the increase of DOP enterprises, DOP prices tend to stabilize.

Price trend

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the quotation of o-benzene fell in January, while the domestic market of o-benzene fell. With the recovery of upstream and downstream market, the price of o-benzene may hit the bottom and rebound. As of January 30, Sinopec’s price of o-xylene was 4700.00 yuan / ton, down 300 yuan / ton or 6.00% compared with 2000 yuan / ton of o-xylene at the beginning of the month (January 1).

Upstream market of o-benzene

It can be seen from the price trend chart of mixed xylene that the price of mixed xylene rose sharply in January, with an increase of 9.90%. The price of mixed xylene continued to rise, the cost of o-benzene rose, the support for the rise of o-benzene was obvious, and the power of o-benzene rise increased.

Trend of downstream products

From the price trend chart of phthalic anhydride, it can be seen that the price of phthalic anhydride first fell and then rose in January. Although the price of phthalic anhydride still fell slightly, the overall market of phthalic anhydride rebounded from the bottom, the market of phthalic anhydride rebounded at the end of the month, the market of o-benzene improved, and the price of o-benzene increased.

Future forecast

Bai Jiaxin, an o-xylene data analyst of business news agency, believes that in January, the price of mixed xylene continued to rise, the cost of o-xylene increased, and the price of o-xylene fell due to the drop of phthalic anhydride price, but the pressure of o-xylene rising continued to increase; at the end of the month, the price of phthalic anhydride rebounded, the demand of o-xylene rose, the rising power of o-xylene was released, and the rising power of o-xylene increased. It is expected that o-xylene bottomed out and rebounded, and the rise in price.

According to the data monitored by the business club, as of January 28, the comprehensive price of PC market was 19833.33 yuan / ton, the PC market was stable and rising, the overall market was stable, the purchasing atmosphere was general, and the wait-and-see atmosphere was strong.

The domestic PC market negotiation center is stable, the overall trend is stable, the price is firm, the downstream just need to take orders, and the wait-and-see atmosphere is strong. At present, the domestic spot supply is normal, the enterprise operating rate is normal, and the inventory is normal. At present, the shipment is smooth, and near the Spring Festival, the willingness of traders to prepare goods is general, and there is no obvious improvement

The upstream bisphenol a market as a whole was stable and on the upper side, the supply of spot goods was tight, the focus of market negotiation was stable, and the reference negotiation was around 17100-17200 yuan / ton.

On January 27, the rubber and plastic index was 710 points, which was the same as yesterday, decreased by 33.02% compared with 1060 points (2012-03-14), the highest point in the cycle, and increased by 34.47% compared with 528 points, the lowest point on April 6, 2020. (Note: period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now)

Business community PC analysts believe: it is expected that the PC market will be stable in the short term. (the above prices are provided by major PC manufacturers all over the country and sorted out and analyzed by business PC analysts. They are for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more details.)

Price list of aluminum ingots

According to the data of business news agency, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China on January 27 was 14910 yuan / ton, down 5.19% from 15726.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (January 1).

The recent pressure on aluminum price is mainly based on two factors

1. The price of aluminum is high in the early stage, the profit of aluminum plant is high, and the output of aluminum moves up

According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, in 2020, the domestic aluminum production accumulated to 37.08 million tons, exceeding the record high of 35.802 million tons set in 2018, setting the highest annual record. In December 2020, the primary aluminum production was 3.27 million tons, up 2.8% on a month on month basis. It exceeded the record high of 35.802 million tons set in 2018.

In the early stage, the price of aluminum was high, the profit of aluminum plant was high, and the operating rate moved up.

2. Aluminum ingots are slightly accumulated in the off-season of aluminum consumption

At present, as the end of the year is approaching the low season of aluminum consumption, the demand of the downstream is increasing, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots is accumulating. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 688000 tons, up from 600000 tons in early December.

Near the end of the year, some aluminum profile enterprises have holidays ahead of time, and the aluminum price goes down horizontally, so there is little demand for stock preparation.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of January 26, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 14000 yuan / ton, down 2.33% from 14333.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and down 22.94% from the same period last year.

According to the bulk data monitoring of the business community, as of January 26, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 19166.67 yuan / ton, up from 17500 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. It was up 12.38% in the month and down 15.71% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

R22, the price of refrigerant R22 fell this month, and the market was weak. Due to the opening of new R22 quota in 2021 and the impact of recent epidemic in Hebei Province, the raw material chloroform enterprises reduced their prices to prevent excessive warehouse pressure in the future, resulting in the gradual decline of cost support, which made R22 enterprises unable to support the market and the price fell. Moreover, the demand side continued to be weak, and the export and domestic sales performance was average. Near the end of the year, the downstream had a holiday ahead of time, the market demand gradually stagnated, and the price of refrigerant R22 fell steadily this month. At present, the market quotation of R22 is mostly in the range of 14000-15000 yuan / ton, the transaction price is low, the enterprises do not receive many orders, the short-term price is stable, and there is a downward expectation in the future.

R134a, refrigerant R134a price up this month, the market is strong. Due to the overhaul of some hydrofluoric acid plants, the spot supply on the site was slightly tight. The price continued to rise after new year’s day, 5.67% higher than the price of 9530 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. The price of raw materials was tight and the refrigerant manufacturers reduced the load, which supported the price rise of R134a. At present, the demand is not good, downstream enterprises stop work for holidays, traders withdraw from the market and wait-and-see, and logistics in some areas is out of service. At present, the market quotation of refrigerant R134a is mostly in the range of 19000-22000 yuan / ton, with high price, but the transaction atmosphere is general, and the short-term price is stable, so it is not suitable to go down.

Hydrofluoric acid as raw material. On January 26, the mainstream price of domestic anhydrous hydrofluoric acid manufacturers was 10000-10500 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price trend of on-site merchants increased slightly. Domestic hydrofluoric acid manufacturers had a general operating rate, and the supply of on-site goods was slightly tight. Affected by the rising price of fluorite, the demand of downstream refrigerant industry was general, and on-demand purchase was the main factor. It is expected that the on-site price will increase slightly in the later stage High.

Trichloromethane, affected by the poor demand of downstream market recently, the price of trichloromethane in Shandong continued to fall, and the trade in the industry was light. Although it was near the Spring Festival holiday, the intention of downstream goods preparation was flat, and the inventory of trichloromethane production enterprises had accumulated to a certain extent, so they were forced to make profits for shipment. At present, the price of Shandong is about 2640-2720 yuan / ton, Jiangxi Liwen is about 3600 yuan / ton, and Jiangsu is about 3700 yuan / ton. At present, there are many negative factors in the chloroform market. It will take time for the demand side to return to normal. The situation of oversupply in the industry is obvious. It is expected that the price of chloroform will be weak and stable in a short time.

3、 Future forecast

According to refrigerant analysts of business news agency, at present, raw materials are rising, supply is tight, and cost support is strong. However, as the Spring Festival approaches, downstream enterprises have holidays one after another, and demand is gradually stagnant. The main orders are supplied by enterprises, and the market tends to be stable, with little fluctuation before the year. It is expected that the market of refrigerant will be stable in the short term, and will fluctuate with the price of raw materials in the future.

According to the data of the business club’s block list, the TDI market price was stable this week. The average price of the East China market at the weekend was 12533.33 yuan / ton, down 1.05% compared with 12666.67 yuan / ton last weekend, and up 7.12% compared with the same period last year.

This week, the domestic TDI market is deadlocked and wait-and-see. The atmosphere in the market is quiet. At the beginning of the week, the market is weak. The dealer’s quotation is lower than last week. Later, the industry mostly wait-and-see, and the price trend runs smoothly. As of the 24th, the domestic TDI offer in East China market is 12400-12500 yuan / ton, and the Shanghai offer is 12500-12600 yuan / ton.

The market of toluene continued to rise. At the initial stage, the market was very strong, and the focus of negotiation was pushed up, with an increase of 3.26% in the week. As of the 24th, the domestic average price was 4037.5 yuan / ton, and the price fell near the weekend. Affected by the public health incident, some downstream terminal factories in China may have holidays ahead of time, and the market demand for toluene was weak.

At present, the supplier’s equipment is running smoothly, the offer is relatively high and the intention of low price shipment is not high. On the other hand, affected by public health events, the holiday time of downstream terminals may be ahead of schedule. The operators are cautious, mainly purchase on demand, and the intention of buying is weak. In terms of polyether market, the lower reaches hold a wait-and-see attitude, the industry mainly purchases on demand, the buying enthusiasm is general, and the purchase of TDI is limited.

According to TDI data analyst of business club, at present, the domestic TDI market is in a stalemate, and the atmosphere in the market is quiet. In addition, the upstream and downstream companies may enter the holiday ahead of time, so the demand is weak, and the trading in the market is cold. In the later stage, the TDI market continues to consolidate temporarily, and pay attention to the downstream market news.

Magnesium market trend

On January 26, 2021, the price of magnesium ingots (99.9%, non pickling, simple packaging) in the main production areas of China stabilized in cash including tax, with the overall range of 14100-14400 yuan / ton, mainly through real order negotiation.

The specific price range of each region is as follows:

In fugu area, the ex factory spot exchange including tax is 14100-14400 yuan / ton; in Taiyuan area, the spot exchange is 14300-14400 yuan / ton; in Wenxi area, the spot exchange is 14400-14500 yuan / ton; in Ningxia area, the spot exchange is 14100-14300 yuan / ton.

Magnesium ingot is original magnesium ingot according to national standard (GB / t3499-2011); non pickling, no wooden pallet and non payment acceptance price, mainly based on single negotiation.

Near the Spring Festival, the downstream stock demand slightly improved, and some magnesium ingot manufacturers do not have much inventory. They are determined to support the price. It is expected that they will stabilize in the near future, and some manufacturers will increase slightly.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business club’s block list, the price trend of cryolite market this week was stable. The average price of Henan market was 5975 yuan / ton at the weekend, which was stable within the week, up 1.27% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic price of cryolite was temporarily stable this week. As of the 24th, the ex factory price of cryolite in Shandong was 5500-6800 yuan / ton, while that in Henan was 5000-6200 yuan / ton, unchanged from last week. The domestic cryolite enterprises have normal start-up and sufficient inventory. The annual output of Zhengzhou Tianrui crystal Co., Ltd. is 30000 tons. About 70% of the units start-up. The whole unit load of Jiaozuo Minli Industrial Co., Ltd. is normal start-up. The annual production capacity of Zibo Kunyu industry and Trade Co., Ltd. is 40000 tons. The units are in normal operation, and there is no shutdown plan for the time being. At present, the cryolite market has sufficient inventory, and the downstream demand is general. Enterprises can talk about selling more than one, and the transaction is fair.

On the upstream side, the domestic fluorite market was stable as a whole, with a slight increase of 0.20% in price within the week. The supply of goods in the yard was tight, and the demand in the downstream was insufficient. In terms of downstream electrolytic aluminum, the price fluctuated slightly this week. At the beginning of the week, the price was lowered, and then it was called back. It was stable in the rising range, with an overall decline of 0.35%. At present, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum continues to move down, the market demand is acceptable, and it is expected that the market will remain volatile in the later period.

3、 Future forecast

At present, the domestic cryolite manufacturers are in normal operation, and the market supply is sufficient. The downstream industry lacks support for the cryolite industry, and the demand is general. With the downstream gradually entering the holidays and logistics, the cryolite price market may maintain weak and stable operation in the later stage, and the specific attention should be paid to the market demand.