In November, the three major PE varieties in the spot market showed an upward trend as a whole. Among them, high-pressure was the leader, with the most obvious rise, and the price repeatedly reached new highs. According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the price of 2426h LDPE in East China increased by about 1900 yuan / ton in November. In November, the price of LLDPE 7042 in East China increased by about 800 yuan / ton, and the low pressure was mainly followed by the two major varieties, with the smallest increase. In November, the price of HDPE 5000S in East China increased by about 400 yuan / ton.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average ex factory price of LLDPE (7042) in East China was 7516.67 yuan / ton on November 1 and 8300.00 yuan / ton on November 30, up 10.42% and 11.91% over the same period last year.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average ex factory price of LDPE (2426h) in East China was 10437.50 yuan / ton on November 1 and 12375.00 yuan / ton on November 30, up 18.56% in the month and 52.31% in the same period of last year.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average ex factory price of HDPE (5000S) in East China was 8333.33 yuan / ton on November 1 and 8700.00 yuan / ton on November 30, up 4.40% in the month and 9.89% higher than that in the same period last year.

Regional variety manufacturers rose and fell from October 30 to November 30

East China LLDPE 7042 Jilin Petrochemical Company 7500 yuan / ton 8300 yuan / ton + 800 yuan

East China LLDPE 7042 Daqing Petrochemical Company 7500 yuan / ton 8300 yuan / ton + 800 yuan

East China LLDPE 7042 Dushanzi Petrochemical Company 7500 yuan / ton 8300 yuan / ton + 800 yuan

East China LDPE 2426h Daqing Petrochemical Company 10400 yuan / ton 12300 yuan / ton + 1900 yuan

East China LDPE 2426h Lanzhou Petrochemical Company 10400 yuan / ton 12300 yuan / ton + 1900 yuan

East China HDPE 5000S Daqing Petrochemical Company 8300 yuan / ton 8700 yuan / ton + 400 yuan

East China HDPE 5000S Lanzhou Petrochemical Company 8300 yuan / ton 8700 yuan / ton + 400 yuan

The spot trend of polyethylene market in November can be divided into two parts. In the first half of the month, the market trend was not obvious, and the three major varieties have been steadily increased. In the first half of the month, the international crude oil market fluctuated and rose, bringing some support on the news surface. The futures market fell first and then rose, boosting the market mentality. Some of the ex factory prices of petrochemical enterprises have been raised, and the business mentality is good, and the offer has been followed up. However, due to the poor market demand and price constraints, the downstream multi-dimensional rigid needs to be replenished, the market trading atmosphere is not good, and the price rise is limited.

In the second half of the month, the prices of the three varieties were mainly increased, with a large range. Due to the lack of high-pressure supply, due to the impact of the shutdown of devices in Maoming Petrochemical and other enterprises, the supply decreased again, and the market supply became more scarce, and the price rose all the way, followed by the futures market, which rose sharply. At the same time, the international oil price continued to rise in November, which has maintained a rising trend for four consecutive weeks, and the oil price has reached a peak in the last eight months. On the one hand, the good news of the new crown vaccine has boosted the demand expectation; on the other hand, according to the news released from the market, OPEC + is expected to further maintain the current super scale production reduction, which is good for the supply expectation, and the rising crude oil is good for the market mentality. The inventory of petrochemical enterprises is not high, the ex factory price has been increased significantly continuously, the business mentality is good, and the market price is higher.

In November, with the price rising continuously, the downstream has some resistance to the high price, and the enterprise maintains just need to purchase, with a more cautious attitude. At the end of the month, the futures market fell, and the support for the spot market was limited. In terms of demand, double-12 is coming soon. E-commerce will promote sales at the end of the year. The demand for packaging film is expected to grow, but the demand for agricultural film is gradually weakening, and the operating rate has decreased. And the international crude oil has weakened, affecting the market mentality. At the end of the month, business offers have fallen. Polyethylene market is expected to fall in December, but the range is limited.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of November 30, the average price of silicone DMC market quotation in the mainstream areas of data monitoring was 33333 yuan / ton, which was increased by 7567 yuan / ton or 29.37% compared with last Monday (November 23); the average price was increased by 12933 yuan / ton, or 63.40%, compared with the beginning of the month (November 1); compared with October 1, the average price was increased by 15533 yuan / ton, or 87.27%.

Silicone DMC “breaking through the clouds” the offer price has almost doubled since the fourth quarter! At present, the offer is high to 35000 yuan / ton

In October, the price of silicone DMC went up steadily, and the market was getting better all the way

After the national day of October, the “silver ten” effect of silicone DMC market appeared, the market rose steadily, the downstream demand was good, the trading atmosphere was active, the overall market situation of silicone DMC was good, the orders of silicone oil and silica gel in the downstream were stable. Near the end of the month, the low-end offers of silicone DMC continued to decrease, the offer prices moved closer to the high-end, the high-low price gap was constantly reduced, and the upstream and downstream industrial chain conduction was smooth According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of October 31, the average price of silicone DMC market quotation in mainstream areas was 20400 yuan / ton, which was increased by 2600 yuan / ton or 14.61% compared with October 1.

Silicone DMC’s “crazy rise” rose 63.40% in November

In November, the market of organosilicon DMC entered a wide pull up channel. In the first week of the month, DMC closed its offer generally, and the offers from factories were very few. According to the data of only a few offer factories, the market of silicone DMC rose sharply again, with the market price exceeding 22500 yuan / ton, the basic transaction price exceeding 22000 yuan / ton, and the offer of cargo holders exceeding 23000 yuan / ton. In the middle of the month, the phenomenon of factory closing has not eased, and a few of the offer factories have raised the ex factory price of silicone DMC again by 500-1500 yuan / T. the factories are in short supply and the supply is tight. Since the end of last ten days, the rising trend of silicone DMC continued to increase. On the 25th, the market high offer rose to 34500 yuan / ton. At present, the factory is still mainly dealing with the early orders, and the spot goods are in short supply. Some of the spot goods in the secondary market are currently offered at around 32000-34000 yuan / ton.

As of November 30, the mainstream offer of silicone DMC was 33000-34500 yuan / ton, and the average price was 33333 yuan / ton. Compared with last Monday (November 23), the average price was increased by 7567 yuan / ton, or 29.37%; compared with the beginning of the month (November 1), the average price was increased by 12933 yuan / ton, or 63.40%. Compared with the price at the beginning of the fourth quarter (the average market reference price of 17800 yuan / ton on October 1), the market price has almost doubled, with an increase of nearly 100%.

Lower reaches wait-and-see increase, short-term market high may usher in supply and demand deadlock

However, DMC is still under the influence of the high price of organic silicon in the lower end of the market, and it is expected that DMC will continue to be short-term under the influence of the high price of organic silicon in the lower part of the market It is not ruled out that the market will encounter a stalemate in supply and demand after the downstream is unable to bear it.

This month, the domestic BDO market rose first and then stabilized, and then rose sharply in the whole, and then entered the state of consolidation after rising in the last ten days of this month. According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, the average price of domestic BDO producers on November 1 was 10083 yuan / ton, and that on November 30 was 12250 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 21.49% and a year-on-year increase of 25.26%. The BDO price has been rising sharply for 4 months.

Some enterprises announced the settlement price in November and the listing price in December:

Enterprises, settlement in November (bulk water delivery), listing in December (bulk water delivery)

Xinjiang Lanshan Tunhe Chemical Co., Ltd. East China 11600 yuan / ton, South China 11800 yuan / ton, East China 13000 yuan / ton, South China 13200 yuan / ton

This month, the domestic BDO market was stagnant after a sharp rise. With the restart of parking devices and the introduction of new capacity into the market, the tense situation of spot goods has been eased; the construction of some downstream enterprises has declined, the demand has decreased, and the purchasing mentality has turned rational. The market mentality of the manufacturers and the high-level deadlock of negotiation focus.

In terms of the plant, Xinye shut down at the end of March and restart in mid November, and is now in full load operation; Dongyuan was shut down for maintenance on October 30 to the middle of November, with the current load of about 80%; Meike phase II 100000 t / a plant was placed at the end of October to replace catalyst, which is expected to be about 7 days, at present, all the units are relatively stable operation; Henan Hemei coal company shut down for 20% maintenance on November 14 Sichuan Tianhua was shut down for maintenance from November 9 to 24, and now it has been running stably; the 30000 ton unit of Xinjiang Tianye was restarted in late November and produced products on 30 days; Yanchang Petroleum was officially put into operation on November 19, and the products were exported on November 25, with the current load of about 60%; Shaanxi Shaanxi Shaanxi Chemical Co., Ltd. replaced the catalyst on November 23, lasting for 7 days.

In terms of downstream, PBT: Kanghui has a maintenance plan in December; Kaixiang stops for maintenance on November 15, which is planned to be maintained for about one month; Nantong Xingchen stops for maintenance on November 13 and plans to overhaul for about 1 month. Demand is expected to increase next month. However, due to the reduction of unit consumption, the consumption is not obvious. On the whole, the digestion capacity of the demand side may increase with the restart of the PBT shutdown device in the next month.

Next month, the support of raw material end is OK. The supply side is expected to improve or weaken with the restart of Hecheng coal plant, the new capacity and the load of the restarted units. BDO analysts predict that the domestic BDO market will remain high in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the bulk data of the business agency, affected by the high production cost and the negative impact of enterprises, the market of chloroform in Shandong has risen sharply. As of December 1, the average price of chloroform in Shandong was about 3450 yuan / ton, with an increase of 800 yuan / ton, or 30.19%, or 72.5% compared with the same period last month.

Production capacity and operation of the enterprise

Shandong Jinling: 440000 tons / year: 30%

Dongying Jinmao 120000 tons / year parking

Luxi Chemical Industry: 400000 tons / year: 50%

Jiangsu Liwen 160000 tons / year normal

Jiangxi Liwen: 120000 tons / year: 50%

Recently, the market of chloroform in Shandong continues to be strong. Affected by the high price of raw materials, the cost of chloroform production enterprises is high, the enterprises are operating with reduced load, and the market supply is declining. In addition, the short-term non pressure of enterprise inventory makes the industry enthusiastic. At present, the quotation of Shandong Province is about 3450 yuan / ton, that of Jiangxi Liwen is about 3250 yuan / ton, and that of Jiangsu Province is about 3250 yuan / ton.

In terms of raw materials, due to the weather in some parts of the methanol market, there is no quotation for the shutdown and overhaul of the units. The inventory of production enterprises is not high, and the attitude of the industry is mostly optimistic. At present, the profits of traders are fair. It is expected that the domestic methanol market will fluctuate in the short term, at present, it is about 2097 yuan / ton; the liquid chlorine market is running at a high level, affected by the enterprise maintenance in Shandong, the spot supply is declining, but the downstream market is obviously in conflict with the high price, and the purchase completion is high. Some liquid chlorine enterprises have accumulated inventory, and the price has declined slightly. At present, the mainstream quotation in the industry is between 1500-1700 About yuan / ton.

In terms of the downstream refrigerant market, due to the limited quota at the end of the year, the price of refrigerants was raised due to the slight rise of raw materials, but the support from the demand side was not strong, the transaction atmosphere was weak, and the industry was bearish; the pharmaceutical and agricultural solvent industry started smoothly, and supported chloroform in general.

According to the methane chloride data of the business society, at present, the overall start-up of chloroform market in Shandong is not high, the enterprise inventory pressure is not big, and the enterprise’s price intention is obvious, which drives the surrounding market to be strong and upward. It is expected that the price of chloroform will be high and strong in a short time. Pay attention to the change of raw material liquid chlorine price.

Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, the domestic PA66 market continued to run strongly in November, and various models of products increased significantly. As of December 1, the average offer price of PA66 medium viscosity injection molding class sample enterprises was about 29800 yuan / ton, an increase of 31.57% compared with the average price level in early November.

In terms of adipic acid upstream of PA66, the domestic adipic acid market continued its upward trend in October in November. According to the monitoring of business agency, the general quotation range of adipic acid market is 8000-8500 yuan / ton, which is 18% higher than the average price at the end of October. The main reason is the cost side pull brought by the repeatedly high price of pure benzene. From the perspective of market supply, the operating rate of adipic acid manufacturers remained stable in November, about 80% or more. The market supply of adipic acid was relatively sufficient, and the manufacturers’ inventory pressure was large. Dealers usually take the goods normally, the manufacturer’s inventory pressure is not big, and the inventory is gradually transferred to the distribution link. Therefore, the dealers are forced by the inventory pressure in the late November, and the quotation is slightly loose. At the end of November, the market stabilized mainly because the market returned to fundamentals. At present, with the winter approaching, the downstream operating rate may decline, and the cost of pure benzene also shows signs of decline. Adipic acid is expected to be stable in the near future, and the possibility of falling back is not ruled out.

The upstream adipic acid has support for the cost of PA66. In November, the market of PA66 continued its previous positive trend with a large increase. The situation of spot shortage in the domestic spot market has not improved. Although it is reported that the operating rate of Huafeng in Zhejiang Province has increased, the overall operating rate of domestic production lines is not high, and the mentality of factories to support the market is still strong. Inventory is generally low, new goods are mainly supplied to contract old customers, and on-site supply may be even more tight than expected. In addition, the favorable effect of price increase letters issued by BASF, DuPont and other major international manufacturers is still in effect. At the beginning of the month, aoshengde announced the price increase of intermediate products. In the middle of the month, landic also issued a notice on the price increase of PA66 products. For a time, the prices of PA66 products and related raw materials in the industrial chain could not go down. The replenishment operation of downstream factories is biased towards rigid demand, among which the consumption of PA66 in the automobile industry is better, and the household appliance industry also has certain support for the demand. From the end of the last ten days to the end of the month, the transaction focus of PA66 market is mainly high and firm.

Business agency analysts believe: PA66 domestic market in November strong trend. The price of upstream products was strong after rising, which supported PA66 cost side strongly. The downstream just needs to operate. Although it is against the high price goods, the spot is in short supply, the price is rising, and the terminal is passively following up. At present, the demand is fair. In the last ten days, the increase of PA66 gradually narrowed. It is expected that in the short term, the market price of PA66 will continue its high and strong trend.

Trade name: naphtha

Latest price (November 30, 2020): 1542.75 yuan / ton

Analysis points: international crude oil rose sharply, supporting the cost of petroleum coke. It is understood that WTI crude oil price is 45.53 USD / barrel. At present, the supply of local refining petroleum coke is increasing, and the downstream environmental protection and other factors have reduced the demand for petroleum coke, and the downstream receiving intention is general. Today, the price of coke rises and falls.

Aftermarket forecast: it is expected that the price of petroleum coke in the mainland will be stable in the short term.

Price list of aluminum ingot

According to the data of the business agency, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China on November 30 was 16786.67 yuan / ton, up 13.09% compared with the average price of 14696.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (November 1), 15.35% higher than the average market price at the beginning of the year (January 1), 11230 yuan / ton, up 49.39%.

In November, the price of aluminum ingots hit a new high in the year, mainly due to macro factors & good supply and demand orientation;

In November, the regional comprehensive economic partnership agreement (RCEP) was signed, adding that the domestic economy has maintained an over expected growth rate or will become the only country with positive growth in the main economy. The news of the success of vaccines in overseas countries offsets the current deterioration of overseas epidemic situation. In the medium term, it is expected to strengthen in the medium term and boost the expectation of foreign industrial demand. In terms of policy, large-scale international stimulus policies are expected The period is still in, ignite the enthusiasm of funds to do long colored plate.

China’s official manufacturing PMI rose to 52.1 (51.4) in November, the highest since October 2017, and remained in the expansion range for nine consecutive months. From the perspective of enterprise scale, the PMI of large, medium and small enterprises was 53, 52, and 50.1, respectively, which was 0.4, 1.4 and 0.7 percentage points higher than that of the previous month, and the PMI of small enterprises returned to the top of the dry and prosperous line. From the perspective of the sub index, the production index rose to 54.7 (previous value 53.9), the new order index recorded 53.9, 1.1 percentage points faster than the previous month, and the new export order index recorded 51.5 (previous value 51), rebounded for seven consecutive months, reaching a new high since 2018.

In November, the commodity supply and demand index (BCI) of the business association was 0.63, with an average increase of 6.67%, reflecting that the manufacturing economy in the month was expanding compared with the previous month, and the economic growth trend was obvious. It is reported that this is the expansion state of BCI for seven consecutive months since it turned from negative to positive in May.

The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum continues to move down. At present, the social inventory of aluminum ingots has dropped below 600000 tons. The domestic downstream demand is strong, and the supply and demand are oriented well. On the other hand, the investment in domestic manufacturing industry has risen steadily. With the influence of the news of vaccine progress, overseas market is relatively lagging behind, and the expectation of more market is temporarily formed.

In November, the risk preference of market funds rose, and the overall unilateral upward trend of other domestic markets such as stock market and futures market was more significant. The linkage between the future and the present will boost the price of aluminum. It is expected that the aluminum price will be better in the near future, and attention should be paid to prevent the impact of long profit taking and sharp increase of import volume on domestic aluminum price.

According to business agency data, on November 30, the spot price of gold was 368.49 yuan / g, down 7.27% compared with the average price of 397.40 yuan / g in the spot market at the beginning of the month (11.1); the spot price of gold was 342.54 yuan / g at the beginning of the year, up 7.58%; the spot price of gold was 331.75 yuan / g, up 11.07%; compared with the peak value (8.7) of the year, the spot price of silver was 448 yuan / g , down 17.75%.

On November 30, the average price of silver market was 4646.67 yuan / kg, a decrease of 6.08% compared with the average price of 4947.33 yuan / kg at the beginning of the month (November 1); the spot price of silver at the beginning of the year (01.01) was 4376.33 yuan / kg, an increase of 6.18%; the spot price of silver was 2942.67 yuan / kg, an increase of 57.91%; compared with the peak price of 8.11, the spot price of silver was 6708.33 yuan / thousand yuan G, down 30.73%.

Risk aversion subsided and optimism rose

In November, the regional comprehensive economic partnership agreement (RCEP) was signed, adding that the domestic economy has maintained an over expected growth rate or will become the only country with positive growth in the main economy. The news of the success of vaccines in overseas countries offsets the current deterioration of overseas epidemic situation. In the medium term, it is expected to strengthen in the medium term and boost the expectation of foreign industrial demand. In terms of policy, large-scale international stimulus policies are expected Period is still in, ignite funds to do long commodity enthusiasm.

China’s official manufacturing PMI for November, released this morning, rose to 52.1 (previous value 51.4), the highest since October 2017, and remained in the expansion range for nine consecutive months. From the perspective of enterprise scale, the PMI of large, medium and small enterprises was 53, 52, and 50.1, respectively, which was 0.4, 1.4 and 0.7 percentage points higher than that of the previous month, and the PMI of small enterprises returned to the top of the dry and prosperous line. From the perspective of the sub index, the production index rose to 54.7 (previous value 53.9), the new order index recorded 53.9, 1.1 percentage points faster than the previous month, and the new export order index recorded 51.5 (previous value 51), rebounded for seven consecutive months, reaching a new high since 2018.

The data of business associations also showed that the commodity supply and demand index (BCI) in November was 0.63, with an average increase of 6.67%, reflecting that the manufacturing economy in the month was expanding compared with the previous month, and the economic growth trend was obvious. It is reported that this is the expansion state of BCI for seven consecutive months since it turned from negative to positive in May.

The domestic macro data is better, and the market is optimistic.

And good news from overseas vaccines has greatly weakened the biggest source of risk aversion sentiment in the market this year. Since the peak value of precious metal prices reached in the middle and early August, some profit-making funds have begun to operate steadily in the third quarter of 2020, including some central banks, such as Uzbekistan and Turkey.

According to the world gold association, in the third quarter of 2020, central banks sold 12 tons of gold, the second quarter in nearly 10 years. In the third quarter of 2020, the total global gold ETF positions reached a new record of 3880.0 tons, of which the net inflow in the third quarter was 272.5 tons. The growth rate of gold ETF positions in the third quarter was lower than that in the first half of the year.

After the third quarter, the investment fever of precious metals has actually begun to slow down. The current round of Dayang market driven by investment demand has started to divert.

After the price of precious metals moved down, the overall price of precious metals fluctuated from late September to the end of October. In November, the risk preference of capital in the market rose. Other domestic markets, such as the stock market and futures market, showed a significant unilateral upward trend, and the price of precious metals was under more pressure.

Market trend of magnesium market in 2020

On November 30, 2020, the price of magnesium ingot (99.9%, no pickling, simple packaging) in the main production areas of China will be strong, with the overall range of 13500-13900 yuan / ton, and the actual order negotiation is the main one.

The specific price ranges of each region are as follows:

The ex factory spot exchange including tax in fugu district is 13600-13700 yuan / ton; that in Taiyuan area is 13700-13800 yuan / ton; in Wenxi area, it is 13800-13900 yuan / ton; in Ningxia area, it is 13600-13700 yuan / ton.

The magnesium ingot is the original magnesium ingot of national standard (GB / t3499-2011); it is not pickled, has no wooden pallet and does not pay the acceptance price, and the actual order negotiation is the main one.

According to the data of business agency, the average price of domestic magnesium ingot on November 30 was 13600 yuan / ton, which was 7.23% higher than the average price of 12683.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, 10.27% higher than the average price of 12333.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year, and 14166.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year, a decrease of 4.00%.

From January to September, the price of magnesium fell continuously

Affected by the epidemic situation, the export of magnesium ingots is not smooth, and the demand of downstream automobile industry is weak in the first half of the year. The demand for new magnesium alloy is weak, and the price of magnesium falls continuously from January to September. (Note: the export proportion of domestic magnesium ingot is higher)

In the middle and late September, the price of magnesium ingot hit the bottom. It is reported that the average price in the third quarter dropped to 12700 yuan / ton, with a 3.3% month on month decrease and 14.7% year-on-year decrease. Magnesium smelting profit (after tax) fell to the low level of 775 yuan / ton, down 60.3% compared with the beginning of the year.

The price of magnesium began to rise in recent two months

In October, the influencing factors of cost side factors were enlarged, the price was low, the profit was meager, the magnesium plant’s willingness to stand up for price rose, and the price was tentatively raised for shipment; then, the long short game intensified and the platform operated in shock.

In the middle of November, foreign orders were purchased intensively, and the number of inquiries increased. The second round of rebound market started. After nearly two weeks of pulling up, the market gradually entered the stage of long short stalemate. Market trading performance slowed down compared with the previous period, and downstream customers began to operate cautiously.

Future forecast

The price rebounded slightly. At the current price, the early hoarders have a high willingness to ship goods and the long short game is intensified. However, in recent years, nonferrous metals have skyrocketed, the magnesium aluminum ratio has decreased, and the promotion and utilization of magnesium alloys in the downstream are beneficial. It is expected that the operation probability will increase in the near future, with the fluctuation range of 13500-14000 yuan / ton.