1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s block list, the average ex factory price of powdered monoammonium phosphate was 1906 yuan / ton on January 1, and 2116 yuan / ton on December 23. The overall increase of monoammonium phosphate in the whole year was 11.01%, with the maximum amplitude of 12.97%.

According to the business club’s large list data, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium on January 1 was 2200 yuan / ton, and that on December 23 was 2440 yuan / ton. The overall increase of diammonium phosphate in the whole year was 10.91%, and the maximum amplitude was 13.74%.

2、 Market analysis

In 2020, the market of monoammonium phosphate is relatively volatile, with an overall upward trend and a high price at the end of the year. During the spring ploughing season in the first quarter, the peak season of the year was ushered, and the overall price of map rose by 9.27%. In the peak season of phosphate fertilizer, chemical fertilizer rises together. The raw materials of ammonium phosphate rose sharply, and the demand of downstream compound fertilizer was strong, which led to the price rise of ammonium phosphate. Due to poor demand in the off-season, monoammonium phosphate fell sharply in the second quarter, and the overall price fell by 3.58% in the quarter. The demand of downstream compound fertilizer is weak, the market transaction is limited, and the supply of monoammonium phosphate is sufficient, the market is weak, and the price trend is relatively stable. The inflection point was realized in the fourth quarter. In the fourth quarter, the market of ammonium phosphate was boosted by the tight supply of goods, cost support and other favorable factors. The price went up, and the focus of trading moved up. In the quarter, the overall price of monoammonium phosphate rose by 13.39%. Towards the end of the year, the lower reaches of the market showed fatigue and limited ability to receive goods. The offer of some areas of map began to loosen. However, the prices of mainstream manufacturers in the market remained stable. With the weakening of the support of the demand side in the future, the market may usher in an inflection point.

In 2020, the market of diammonium phosphate was first depressed and then rose. In the second half of the year, the price rose all the way. At the end of the year, the price rose to a high level in the year, showing a bright performance. The overall price of diammonium phosphate rose by 1.14% in the first quarter. Due to the low price of raw materials and poor transportation in many places, the downstream traders mainly digest the inventory, with poor enthusiasm, strong market supply and weak demand, and the price rise of DAP is hindered. In March, prices began to rise and then stabilized. With Hubei enterprises resuming production one after another, the spot supply is sufficient, new downstream purchase orders are reduced, and the export competition is fierce. The market of diammonium phosphate fell in the second quarter, and the overall price fell by 3.58% in the quarter. In the second half of the year, the domestic and foreign demand for diammonium phosphate increased, the supply of goods was relatively tight, the market gradually improved, and the price began to rise continuously. Near the end of the year, the tight supply of goods continues, the demand for exports slows down, and the market transaction is tepid. However, the demand for downstream fertilizer is stable, and the price is still high. It is expected that the short-term market will be stable.

2020 is coming to an end. The domestic phosphorus ore market is weak and stable as a whole, and the downstream demand is weak. There are not many new orders to purchase, and the support for phosphorus ore is limited. The phosphorus ore industry mainly focused on stabilizing the price a year ago. Therefore, the phosphorus ore analysts of the business community believe that the recent adjustment of the phosphorus ore market is limited, and it is expected that the quotation will not be reduced, and the overall stable operation is the main.

3、 Future forecast

Ammonium phosphate analysts of the business club believe that 2020 will be a tough year for the chemical industry, while the market of ammonium phosphate is boosted by favorable factors such as tight supply and cost support, showing a bright performance and the overall price trend is upward. Although the trend of monoammonium phosphate fluctuated in this year, it did not fall deeply. The attitude of the industry was relatively stable, and it reached a high level at the end of the year. However, after dormant in the first half of the year, diammonium phosphate started to rise in the second half of the year without any correction. At present, there is no obvious negative factor. The market of ammonium phosphate is expected to be stable before the end of the year, and the future market still needs to pay attention to the demand side guidance.

1、 Price trend

According to the data from the large list of business associations, the price of domestic toluene rose after falling this week, and fell overall compared with last week. On December 13, the price of toluene was 3860 yuan / ton; on Sunday (December 20), the price was at 3850 yuan / ton, 10 yuan / ton lower than last week, or 0.26%.

2、 Analysis and comment

During the week, the listed price of toluene in East China increased by 150 yuan / ton, by 100 yuan / ton in Central China, and decreased by 100 yuan / ton in South China. Toluene price is supported by crude oil price; downstream TDI, PX and other start-up is stable, and demand is weak; at present, gasoline price has an obvious impact on toluene price.

In terms of crude oil, crude oil this week showed an overall upward trend. The US economic stimulus plan negotiations are expected to reach an agreement, and the crude oil market is boosted. Compared with December 11, Brent was up $1.94/barrel, or 3.88%; WTI was up $2.49/barrel, or 5.33%. Compared with December 31, 2019, Brent decreased by 22.16%, and WTI decreased by 18.97%.

Downstream: in terms of TDI, the price of this week was higher than that of last week, and the price of domestic products was 12766.67 yuan / ton, up 0.52% over last week. At present, the TDI market is weak, the atmosphere is cold, the enthusiasm of downstream inquiry is not high, and the future market is weak.

In terms of PX market, the listed price of Sinopec’s enterprises was about 4300 yuan / ton this week, which was stable compared with last week, with a year-on-year decrease of 35.82%. The supply of goods in PX yard is normal and the goods are in good condition. PX prices rose this week. As of the end of the week, the Asian PX market closed at US $608.5/t FOB Korea and US $626.5/t CFR China.

3、 Future forecast

According to toluene analyst of chemical branch of business agency: first look at the supply cost side, OPEC + production reduction implementation, total number of us oil drilling and weekly EIA, API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the worsening global epidemic situation on crude oil demand, the progress of industrial chain recovery, the economic and trade situation of Europe and the United States and the progress of economic recovery and rescue plan. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and China and the United States, the progress in the research and development of new coronal vaccine, the linkage between the US dollar index and the stock market.

Crude oil prices rose as a whole, with strong support from the cost side. But the downstream demand is weak, and the upward breakthrough resistance of toluene price is greater. We will focus on the trend of gasoline blended price, and it is expected that there will be upward momentum at the end of the year. Overall, it is expected that the domestic toluene price will continue to rise next week.

According to statistics from the business agency, on December 10, the average spot market price of 32S polyester yarn in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai was about 13375 yuan / ton, which was the same as last week. In the downstream market, textile mills and traders have prepared goods ahead of time, and the pure polyester yarn market quotation is stable, but the focus of negotiation is slightly floating. According to the survey data of China Light and Textile City, yarn output fell by 0.3% month on month and 1.1% year-on-year. Among them, blended yarn and chemical fiber yarn accounted for 33.6%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points over the previous month. The yarn sales rate was 81%, 5% lower than last month. At present, the yarn inventory of textile enterprises is 13.94 days, which is 0.51 days higher than that of last month.

Last week, signs of recovery in the domestic textile market revealed that the number of new orders of textile enterprises had increased. Yarn prices in some regions were generally increased slightly, and the sales of medium and low-end yarns were good, while the high-end textile and clothing market was still poor, and the market performance differences among different varieties were still large. China’s import of foreign yarn is active and the festival consumption stimulates the terminal demand of retail market, and the price of outer yarn has recovered; the tense situation of container is difficult to ease in the short term, the sea freight price is still high, and the price difference of internal and external yarn continues to hang upside down, and the hanging range continues to converge compared with the previous week.

In the near future, the price of crude oil is strong, supporting the cost of crude oil. The price of polyester staple fiber has risen sharply, and the production and sales volume have been increased. The quotation of Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester staple fiber manufacturers has been raised, and the trading atmosphere is relatively light. The mainstream transaction price of 1.4d is between 5595-5650 yuan / ton yuan / ton, which is a single discussion. The quotation of Fujian polyester staple fiber manufacturers remained stable, and the actual order was negotiated for shipment, and the actual order of 1.4d was about 5600-5700 yuan / T. Shandong, Hebei polyester staple fiber prices are mostly stable, trading atmosphere is general.

The opening rate of weaving Market is stable, and some market orders are getting better. Since December, the textile market has gradually improved. The domestic weaving load was stable at 77.67%, and the weaving operation rate was slightly higher than that in the previous statistical cycle. With the boost of vaccine, the market’s expectation for the recovery of peripheral terminal textile demand was gradually strengthened. The subsequent spring and summer clothing orders still faced the risk of last year’s inventory and RMB appreciation, and the turning point of weaving opening rate has not yet appeared. Recently, the spot transaction and order delivery of chemical fiber grey cloth in China Light and textile city have rebounded month on month, and the price index shows a slight upward trend, while the transaction price of polyester yarn grey cloth, polyester spinning grey cloth, polyester crepe grey cloth, polyester hemp grey cloth and polyester yarn dyed grey cloth has increased slightly month on month. Clothing fabric sales rose on a month on month basis, while market turnover increased slightly. Boosted by the “double 12″ market, orders of clothing fabrics in early winter increased month on month, while fabric orders in spring increased month on month, and prices rose slightly.

Generally speaking, the stable raw material prices in the near future have given certain confidence to the downstream, adding to the optimistic expectation of the downstream for 2021, which leads to the early preparation of textile mills and traders in mid and late December. Businesses believe that this wave of market is mainly downstream replenishment at the end of the year, whether consumer demand is increasing, is still skeptical. At present, the persistence of terminal demand is limited, and the market mentality is cautious. Business agency analysts believe that in accordance with past practice, the situation of downstream funds is generally tight at the end of the year. Moreover, foreign trade orders caused by the decline of overseas demand this year are difficult to be large-scale. Even if the price increase of staple fiber can be transmitted to the yarn mill, it is extremely difficult for the price of the yarn mill to continue to pass down after the price rise. The terminal demand is difficult to see a substantial improvement, and the pure polyester yarn market is stable and strong.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of bulk commodity data, the price of Yungui yellow phosphorus was stable this week. The average price of yellow phosphorus is 15500 yuan / ton.

2、 Market analysis

The price of yellow phosphorus market is stable this week, and the driving situation is basically normal. At present, the market sales situation is fair, the downstream goods taking situation has improved, the transaction is more active than before, and the yellow phosphorus enterprises intend to stabilize. So far, the market quotation in Yunnan is about 15500-15800 yuan / ton. The mainstream quotation in Guizhou is about 15200-15300 yuan / ton. The price of yellow phosphorus in Sichuan is about 15400-15600 yuan / ton.

In terms of phosphate rock, the overall market situation of phosphate ore is weak and stable, the downstream demand is weak, and there are not many new orders to purchase, so the support for phosphate rock is limited. Phosphate rock industry mainly focused on stabilizing price this year. In the near future, the adjustment of phosphate ore market is limited, and it is expected that the quotation will not be lowered, and the overall stable operation is mainly maintained.

In terms of coke, as of December 17, the spot market: the price of coke remained stable after rising, and the ninth round of increase was fully implemented. The supply side continues to be tight, and some new capacity is put into production, but it is slightly weak to ease the current supply situation. At present, the sales of coking enterprises are very good, and the inventory is on the low side. In the near future, due to the cold weather, some steel mills have the intention to supplement due to cold weather. In terms of ports, the prices of the two ports in Shandong Province remained stable for the time being. The market trading was general, and the supply of goods available for sale in the market was on the low side. Some traders did not quote actively. In terms of price, the mainstream spot exchange ex warehouse price of quasi grade I metallurgical coke in port is about 2420 yuan / ton, the port inventory is temporarily stable, and the arrival situation is general. In the future, we still need to focus on the impact of de capacity and environmental protection and production restriction, as well as the coke inventory situation in each link. The market is still optimistic about the future market.

In terms of demand, the phosphoric acid market has been stable for a while, with little price changes. The downstream demand is stable and the transaction is good. The actual transaction is mainly through negotiation. The start-up of phosphate, phosphorus trichloride and phosphorus pentoxide was acceptable. All enterprises maintain the orders of old customers, and the demand for yellow phosphorus is better than expected.

3、 Future forecast

According to the yellow phosphorus analyst of chemical branch of business agency, the current yellow phosphorus market has turned better recently, the volume of goods taken by enterprises has gradually increased, the yellow phosphorus market has recovered, and the quotation of yellow phosphorus enterprises has stabilized. It is expected that the market price of yellow phosphorus will focus upward in the short term.

1、 Price trend

The domestic PS market continued to decline slightly, with a range of 20-50 yuan / ton. The lack of good news on the periphery, combined with the light market inquiry, the majority of the cargo holders reduced their prices, and the focus of bulk cargo negotiation continued to decline, with less transactions. According to statistics, the market in East China received 9200-13600 yuan / ton of benzene and 16000 yuan / ton of modified benzene.

2、 Market analysis

The ex factory price of Zhanjiang Sino US PS is 9700 yuan / T. The ex factory price of CITIC Guoan PS is 9200 yuan / T. The market high level shipment is not smooth, some may still have the price reduction shipment. But some brands have been hung upside down.

3、 Future forecast

Short term PS market or continue to weaken. Raw material styrene weakness, coupled with the market high-level shipping is not smooth, some still have the possibility of price reduction shipment. It is estimated that the market in East China will receive 9100-13500 yuan / ton of benzene.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, at the beginning of this week, the average ex factory tax inclusive price of domestic light potassium carbonate was 6375.00 yuan / ton. At the weekend, the average price of domestic light potassium carbonate was 6400.00 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.39%. The current price was 4.07% higher than that of last year, and the current price was 0.79% higher than that of last year.

This week, the domestic potash market rose slightly, the supply was tight, the regional inventory was at a low level, the downstream factories took more goods on demand, and the potassium carbonate manufacturers were more positive, and the price rose. According to the statistics of the business agency: this week, the mainstream factory quotation range of industrial grade potassium carbonate in China is about 6000-6700 yuan / ton (the quotation is for reference only), and the quotation is different according to the purchase situation.

Recently, Anhui Badou Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted 2300 yuan / ton for potassium chloride distribution, which was temporarily stable, and the actual transaction price was mainly negotiated. The potassium chloride equipment of Qinghai Salt Lake Potash Fertilizer Co., Ltd. operates normally. The ex factory quotation is 2020 yuan / T, which is stable temporarily. The actual transaction price is mainly negotiated. Potassium chloride market stability, high price consolidation, can give potassium carbonate a certain cost support.

The potassium carbonate analysts of the business club believe that the domestic potassium production situation in the near future is OK, and the supply of goods is concentrated in large traders. In the middle of the week, the shipment is tight. It is expected that the price of potassium carbonate will rise slightly in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see. (the above prices are provided by major potassium nitrate manufacturers all over the country and analyzed by potassium carbonate analysts of business club for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details.).

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, as of December 18, the average ex factory price of domestic n-butanol was 9666 yuan / ton, which was increased by 850 yuan / ton or 9.64% compared with the price on December 13; compared with the reference price of 9100 yuan / ton on December 1, the average price of domestic n-butanol increased by 566 yuan / ton, or 6.23%.

N-butanol rose 9.64% in the week due to increased demand and tight supply

This week, due to the impact of emergency repair and shutdown of foreign n-butanol production plants, exports increased, domestic demand for n-butanol increased, and the market of n-butanol broke the downturn of last week. From Monday, the price of n-butanol plants continued to rise, with a one-day increase of 100-300 yuan / ton. At the weekend, the market center of n-butanol market continued to move up. At present, the downstream industry stock is not much, just need to purchase, the atmosphere is good. In Shandong Province, n-butanol spot is tight, and the business mentality is strong. On December 18, Luxi Chemical Co., Ltd. offered 9900 yuan / ton of n-butanol, with an increase of 700 yuan / ton during the week. Shandong lihuayi n-butanol factory offer 9500 yuan / ton, increased 500 yuan / ton within the week. Wanhua Chemical Co., Ltd. produced 9600 yuan / ton of n-butanol from North China, with an increase of 600 yuan / ton within the week.

On the upstream side, on December 17, the propylene market prices in Shandong Province declined individually. According to the price chart of business agency, the price of propylene rose continuously in late November, increasing by more than 12%. From the end of the month to the beginning of the month, the price was stable again. On the 4th, the price rose by about 450 yuan / ton from the 3rd to the 8th, up by 5.90%. On the 9th, the price was fully stable. On the 10th, some enterprises made up for the increase, and some of them fell slightly. On the 11th, the price began to decline twice, and the decline continued on the weekend. On the 14th, the price dropped 200-250 yuan / T. on the 15th, the price was mainly stable, and most of them remained stable in the later period Some enterprises have declined slightly, and some of them have dropped slightly today. The transaction volume in the market is between 7880 and 8150 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is still around 7900 yuan / ton. Now the factory inventory pressure slightly increased, the shipment situation is ordinary.

In terms of crude oil, on December 17, the price of WTI crude oil futures market in the United States rose, with the settlement price of main contracts at $48.54/barrel, up $0.72. Brent crude oil futures market prices rose, with the settlement price of main contracts at $51.50/barrel, up $0.42. Oil prices continued to climb on Thursday and are now at a nine month high after EIA data showed a decline in US crude oil stockpiles, progress in the US fiscal stimulus plan and strong Asian demand boosted the market.

Purchasing atmosphere is good, inventory is low, it is expected that n-butanol will be strong in the future

At present, the downstream purchasing atmosphere of n-butanol market is good, the confidence of the industry is relatively sufficient, and the overall inventory of n-butanol factory is low. Therefore, the n-butanol data analyst of the business society predicts that the market of n-butanol in the short term will be high and strong.

1、 Price trend

2、 Market analysis

According to the data of the business agency, the market of potassium sulfate in Hebei is stable this week, and the output of Mannheim potassium sulfate is about 2600 yuan / ton, and that of 50% granules and 52% water-soluble powder is about 2725 yuan / ton. The supply and sales of potash in Xinjiang SDIC are normal, with 52% powder arriving at the station price of 2740 yuan / ton; the arrival price of 50% powder in Qinghai water salt system is about 2550 yuan / ton, which is basically the same as last week. Mannheim potassium sulfate factory: 50% powder about 2650; 50% particles 2700-2750; 52% water soluble powder about 2750. The potassium sulfate market runs smoothly and the overall inventory pressure is small. At present, the operation situation of potassium sulfate manufacturers in the water salt system is as good as that of Mannheim industry. Generally speaking, the supply and demand of potassium sulfate Market is gradually balancing, and the price is mainly stable for the time being. Although the high price is not good for sales, it is difficult to find the source of goods at low price. Most manufacturers have orders to be issued, so there is no pressure on sales and inventory.

3、 Future forecast

Business Club potassium sulfate analysts believe: at present, the potassium sulfate Market is going well, the inventory pressure is small, the upstream potassium chloride market support, is expected to be high consolidation in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency (the average ex factory price of calcium carbide method SG5), on December 18, the mainstream average price of PVC in China was 8500 yuan / ton, down 0.44% from the beginning of the week, up 8.11% month on month, and 21.3% higher than the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

This week, PVC market began to cool down, prices fell, the focus began to move down. The weakening of futures prices this week led to market sentiment, and the spot market fell accordingly, but the range was not large. The early part of the week, the spot market showed strong performance, and the market showed a mixed situation of ups and downs. In the middle and late part of the week, the futures price continued to decline, and the spot market generally declined. Near the weekend, the decline of futures price slowed down, and the spot market continued to decline. The enterprise’s price reduction rate was 50-350 yuan within the week/ The market price is mainly around 8500 yuan / ton, which is still at a high level. There are not many low-cost goods, and most manufacturers mainly sell them in advance. At present, the supply of goods in the spot market continues to be tight, and the price of raw materials calcium carbide is rising. However, in the early stage, the high price of PVC has caused strong resistance in the downstream, sharp decrease in profits, lack of purchasing intention, and rigid demand. As the temperature drops, the demand side also cools down, and the operating rate of product enterprises declines, the demand for profiles and pipes gradually decreases, and the large orders are few, and the support force of demand side is gradually weakened On the whole, the supply side and cost side are still in force, but due to the weakening of futures prices and the decline of the support force on the demand side, PVC may be stable and downward.

In terms of spot goods, the mainstream quotation range of domestic pvc5 carbide is mostly around 8350-8750 yuan / ton. The main stream of pvc5 carbide in East China is around 8500-8550 yuan / ton, while that in Hebei is 8250-8320 yuan / ton. The price of Inner Mongolia is 8030-8100 yuan / ton. The range of pvc5 type tourmaline in Hangzhou is 8380-8550 yuan / ton, and that in Changzhou is 8400-8550 yuan / ton, and that in Guangzhou is 8500-8750 yuan / ton The market quotation has been reduced to varying degrees.

Futures, PVC futures prices continue to decline recently, driving the trend of the spot market. On the 17th, the main PVC futures contract v2101 opened at 7705 yuan / ton and closed at 7675 yuan / ton, down 0.84%. The previous day’s settlement price was 7740 yuan, and the trading range was 7550-7710 yuan / ton. 175000 hands were completed, and the position was reduced by 13400 hands to 93700 hands.

Regional variety and technology December 18

Changzhou PVC calcium carbide method 8400-8550 yuan / ton

Guangzhou PVC calcium carbide process 8500-8750 yuan / ton

Hebei PVC calcium carbide method 8250-8320 yuan / ton

Hangzhou PVC calcium carbide process 8380-8550 yuan / ton

Upstream crude oil, on December 17, the US WTI crude oil futures market price rose, and the settlement price of the main contract was $48.54/barrel, up $0.72. Brent crude oil futures market prices rose, with the settlement price of main contracts at $51.50/barrel, up $0.42. Oil prices continued to climb on Thursday and are now at a nine month high after EIA data showed a decline in US crude oil stockpiles, progress in the US fiscal stimulus plan and strong Asian demand boosted the market.

Ethylene, the recent external ethylene market is on the rise. Asian ethylene market prices rose slightly. As of the 17th, CFR Northeast Asia quoted 985-995 US dollars / ton, up 20 dollars / ton; CFR Southeast Asia quoted 925-935 dollars / ton, up 20 dollars / ton. The price of ethylene market in Europe increased greatly. As of the 17th, the price quoted by FD in northwest Europe was 983-998 US dollars / ton, up by 6 dollars / ton. CIF northwest Europe quoted prices of 1004-1016 dollars / ton, up 12 dollars / ton. FD US Gulf offers us $683-694 / T. in recent years, the US ethylene market has been stable, and the recent European and American ethylene market has shown an upward trend. Generally speaking, the overall ethylene market demand has improved, the market trading atmosphere is warm, and the market continues to rise.

As of the 18th, the reference price of calcium carbide was 4050-4300 yuan / ton, up 13.57% from the beginning of the month. In the first ten days of December, calcium carbide market fluctuated slightly and rose mainly. The price of raw materials in the upstream rose slightly, which supported the price of calcium carbide better. The downstream PVC market rose sharply, and the downstream customers had a good enthusiasm for purchasing calcium carbide. Later, it is predicted that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China will rise slightly in mid and early December.

3、 Future forecast

PVC analysts of the business club believe that the supply side and cost are still at present. With the continuous decline of futures prices, the trend of the spot market will also be affected. In addition, the cold weather, reduced demand, and strong resistance to high price PVC in the downstream are strong. It is expected that the trend of PVC in the short term will stabilize and the price will gradually fall.

The year 2020 will be a special year, and the rubber and plastic industry is no exception. As a representative rubber and plastic product with large output and strong demand, the challenges and opportunities in this year’s market naturally attract attention from both inside and outside the industry. According to the monitoring data of business agency, in 2020, the domestic ABS market will first restrain and then rise, and the price will increase by 24% at the end of the year compared with the beginning of the year. Several inflection point market point full load, the business agency takes you one by one inventory and analysis.

Cause analysis

In the first quarter, just at the beginning of the epidemic, the shutdown had a wide impact on the industrial chain. ABS upstream three material market is all depressed, styrene market is affected by the bad news of crude oil chemical industry, domestic styrene price fell accordingly, and directly reflected in the end of the quarter, the weak trend of cost side, dragging down the price of styrene. Foreign panic increased, external market prices fell sharply. The regional price gap is widening, there is room for arbitrage, and there are some hedging operations in China, which aggravates the pressure on the basis of weak market conditions. Acrylonitrile was also affected by the negative news of crude oil chemical industry, and there were new production capacity after the resumption of work, with obvious negative effects in the field. There is a situation of load drop and demand shrinkage in the downstream. Butadiene market also had a big decline, the market lack of new orders to follow up. The spot supply of external disk and tank farm is abundant, and even some enterprises’ products are exported. The high inventory of rubber industry, the high inventory of synthetic rubber industry at the middle end of the industrial chain is under pressure, and the spread of low-price transaction news in the domestic market has dragged down the overall butadiene market. Upstream overall negative ABS cost side, after the Spring Festival holiday, spot prices opened a downward channel. Market bearish factors dominated, and the peripheral news is short, ABS fell all the way to the end of March.

One belt and one helmet

The turning point of the market appeared in April, and the effectiveness of epidemic prevention LED production and life. Although the upstream three material support ambiguous cost, but somehow has stopped falling and stabilized. ABS returns to normal law of supply and demand price, but downstream factories still have considerable inventory to digest. What broke the deadlock was the “helmet fever” that began at the end of April. The security guard action of “one helmet and one belt” deployed by the traffic control bureau of the Ministry of public security has activated the potential consumption of helmets. The prices of helmets on e-commerce platforms have doubled, and the prices of some businesses have even increased by 500%, accompanied by the phenomenon of being reluctant to sell them. According to the survey by ABS Data Engineer of business club, there may be more than 200 million helmets in the society at that time, and the market scale is close to 10 billion. Netizens jokingly call helmets the inheritors of “meltblown cloth phenomenon”. ABS, as the main material of helmet outer layer, has a rapid growth. In May, the operating rate of ABS petrochemical plant in China was almost full load operation, and the industry operating rate was nearly 98%. For a time, the atmosphere of speculation rose everywhere, and the spot price rose by more than one third. It was not until June and July that the ABS rally slowed down, but it did not mean that the market was out of the blue. Business agencies believe that the continued supply shortage pattern in the second half of the year is inseparable from the outbreak of ABS demand in the second quarter.

In August, after more than a month of consolidation of the market, ABS spot shortage pattern not only did not improve, but intensified. In addition, the rebound of overseas epidemic situation led to the decrease of import goods arrival in Hong Kong, and the production of some polymerization plants was hindered by extreme weather. Although the operating rate of ABS petrochemical plant in China remains at a high level, the supply situation is tightened by multiple factors. So that the low inventory of ABS more and more supply, market prices rose. The resistance of merchants to ship is reduced, and the low price order is reduced. And the strong market into the traditional peak season, “gold nine silver ten.”.

Extended season

This year’s traditional peak season performance can be described as standard and satisfactory. Before the double festival, there was a tide of goods preparation, and after the festival, the downstream goods were still more active. Terminal demand, ABS peak season is very prosperous. In particular, the consumption of major domestic appliance enterprises and the automobile industry has remained at a high level, aggravating the tense situation of market supply. Although the lower reaches are resistant to high price goods, the demand side is stable, and the “golden nine silver ten” in 2020 can also be upgraded to an extended version. With the long-term rise of ABS, the cost pressure of downstream factories gradually increases at the end of the year. At present, the downstream purchasing operation is more resistant to high price goods. Business offers steady but the situation of the decline is frequent, the price center of gravity height is cut alternately by the clear and the dark.

Year end overview

ABS analyst of business agency thinks: in 2020, ABS can increase so much under the increasingly fierce competition of domestic polymerization plants. Of course, the main force is not the demand side. Whether it is the demand of “helmet fever” or the steady consumption of household appliances, automobiles and other industries, all reflect the mutual achievements of ABS industry chain, and the positive development of ABS and even rubber and plastic industry in China in 2020. The business agency thinks that the ABS industry is developing well this year and the market can be expected in 2021.