Last week, the domestic butadiene market rose sharply, and the domestic butadiene market rose at the beginning of this week. According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, the domestic butadiene market price remained at 9200 yuan / ton from October 26 to November 3, with the price rising by 45.14% month on month and 0.84% year-on-year. In terms of enterprises, the price of butadiene offered by Sinopec sales companies remained at 9200 yuan / T; in terms of market, at present, the business offers fluctuated little, and downstream inquiries were cautious. As of today’s (11.3), the reference price for delivery in Shandong Province is 9150-9250 yuan / ton, that in Jiangsu Province is about 8800-9100 yuan / ton, and that in Jiangsu Province is 9000-9400 yuan / ton. Business agency butadiene analysts predict that tomorrow’s domestic butadiene market will consolidate and wait and see.

The external supply price of butadiene of Sinopec production enterprises is as follows:

Enterprise price (yuan / ton) device dynamics

Normal operation of 9200 165000 T / a unit in Zhenhai Refining and Chemical Co., Ltd

Normal operation of 92001200 T / a unit in SINOPEC

Normal operation of 92012000t / a unit of Yangzi Petrochemical Company

Sinopec’s 92.2 million T / a plant is in normal operation and mainly supplied by each other

Maoming Petrochemical’s 92.015 million T / a unit is in normal operation, mainly supplied by each other and exported in a small amount

Guangzhou Petrochemical’s 92.03 million T / a plant is in normal operation, mainly supplied by each other and exported in a small amount

Shutdown maintenance of Wuhan ethylene 9200 130000 T / a plant

External market: as of November 2, the external price of butadiene in Asia was stable: FOB Korea closed at 1075-1085 US dollars / ton; CFR China closed at 1075-1085 US dollars / ton. The external price of butadiene in Europe was stable: FOB Rotterdam closed at 695-705 US dollars / ton; FD northwest Europe closed at 535-545 euro / ton.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the domestic PP market was mainly adjusted in October, and the offer was arranged and operated. Spot prices of various brands have been up and down. As of November 1, the mainstream offer price of T30S (wire drawing) of domestic manufacturers and traders was about 8150 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.66% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

The domestic (Shandong) market of PP upstream propylene was stable in the first half of October, and plummeted by more than 10% in the second half. In the first half of the month, some propylene units were overhauled, and the overall supply remained tight. The monthly high price was 7530 yuan / ton on October 8 and 9. However, there were a large number of goods inflow in Northeast China at the end of last week, and the pressure on manufacturers and dealers to ship goods increased, and the operation was biased to yield profits. Downstream continued a small number of low-cost procurement, the market trading atmosphere is weak. At the end of the month, the price is 6736 yuan / ton. On the whole, the inventory pressure of propylene manufacturers is gradually increasing. The price of far upstream crude oil is going down, the downstream supply is sufficient, and external sources are entering. The market is slightly negative, and the price has dropped a lot in the short term. Therefore, it is expected that the propylene price will be affected by detailed inventory in the near future, or stabilize after a small decline.

Propylene fell after rising in October, insufficient support for PP cost side. According to the data monitored by the business agency, PP (wire drawing) market performance is relatively stable this month. Downstream demand is high after the festival, which has a certain support for the spot price. In terms of inventory, the cumulative inventory of petrochemicals exceeded expectations in the last ten days of this month, but the inventory level was still in the moderate position in season, and the port inventory was still low. Although the increase before the festival makes the recent PP gradually appear high pressure, but at the end of the month, some enterprises temporarily shut down, and the ex factory prices of the two oil parts are stable. In terms of demand, at present, the sentiment of downstream inquiry is flat, and the trading just needs to be given priority to, focusing on the low price. Automobile, household electrical appliances and other closed parts industry demand is strong, and the response of the external plate film material market is not good. PP analysts are concerned about the impact of new capacity that may be released in November on the spot price of PP.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of November 1, the mainstream offer price of domestic manufacturers and traders Z30S (fiber) was about 8283.33 yuan / ton. 80% lower than the average price at the beginning of the month. The monthly high appeared early on the 14th at 8383.33 yuan / ton, and the overall operation was stable in the first half of the month. At the end of the month, the average operating rate of domestic PP producers dropped by about 3% compared with that before the festival. However, at present, the supply of fiber material market is sufficient and the competition pressure among refineries is great. Although some fiber material profit recovery, downstream buying enthusiasm is general. In terms of futures, the amplitude of shock is gradually increasing, and it is difficult to say the impact on the mentality of the operators, and the business operation tends to be cautious. In November, demand began to weaken from the peak, the current market to wait-and-see atmosphere. PP (fiber) is expected to be finished in the near future.

PP melt blown material market finishing in October, domestic PP melt blown material market overall confidence is still not strong. According to the data monitored by the business agency, since October, PP (melt blown) material has been adjusted. As of November 1, the average price of sample enterprises is about 14100.00 yuan / ton. At present, the epidemic situation in China is generally stable. Recently, relevant experts have taken the lead to consolidate the epidemic prevention measures and strictly prevent the rebound. At the end of the month, many places in Shandong and Xinjiang were tentatively designated as medium and high-risk areas, and the demand may come next, which has not yet been reflected in the spot price. The trend of the second outbreak of overseas epidemic is obvious, many countries announced to close the city again, the non-woven fabric in the application of medical protection is sought after again, the demand is expected to rise, and the production capacity of China is expected. However, due to the competition of domestic anti epidemic product manufacturers, the profits of enterprises are seriously diluted, and the price of meltblown fabrics and materials is difficult to rise. At present, the price of PP (melt blown) is relatively low, and it is expected that the melt blown material will recover due to the influence of demand expansion in the near future.

Future forecast

PP business agency analysts believe: October domestic PP spot market prices are generally stable. Upstream propylene market high down, price reduction, the cost of PP support weakened. PP (drawing) new production capacity late, price temporarily stable. PP (fiber) market shock finishing, PP (melt blown) demand is expected to rise. At the end of the month, petrochemicals inventory decreased smoothly, and the recent trend of futures rose, which was good for spot. Downstream factory stock purchase just need to operate, conflict with high price goods, business mentality is flat. PP spot is expected to strengthen in the near future.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, after more than 10 days of continuous decline, PTA market rose slightly today (November 3). The average price of spot market on that day was 3252 yuan / ton, up 0.27% compared with the previous trading day, and decreased by 33.93% year-on-year. PTA main futures (2101) closed up and closed at 3380, up 26% or 0.78% from the previous trading day. Upstream crude oil stopped falling, and Yangzi Petrochemical PTA unit was overhauled, thus delaying the market atmosphere of fear of falling.

Recent changes of domestic PTA unit: 10000 tons / year

Production enterprise total capacity maintenance capacity maintenance plan

Yangzi Petrochemical 100 35 plans to start maintenance in the afternoon of November 3, and the restart time is to be determined.

Yizheng Chemical Fiber 100 65 will be overhauled on October 12, 2020, and it will start to warm up and restart in the afternoon of October 30. At present, it is running normally.

Yadong Petrochemical 70 70 plans to overhaul from November 13 to November 28, 2020.

In the evening of September 29, 2020, Hanbang Petrochemical Company began to reduce the load and shut down. The material was discharged in the early morning of October 29, and it started operation on October 30, basically full load.

60. From May 9, 2020, it will be shut down for maintenance and restart to be determined.

Chuanneng chemical 100 100 plans to start maintenance for 14 days on October 15, 2020.

Yisheng Dalian 600 375 will reduce the load to 50% on October 26, 2020, and start maintenance for 2 weeks on November 1.

Hengli Dalian 1160 220 will start maintenance on October 18, 2020 and restart on October 31, 2020. At present, it is running at full load basically.

Jialong petrochemical company shut down for maintenance on August 2, 2019, and the restart time is to be determined.

Pengwei Petrochemical 90 90 will be shut down for maintenance on March 9, 2020, and the restart is to be determined.

Tianjin Petrochemical Company shut down for maintenance on April 17, 2020, and restart to be determined.

With the 2.2 million tons of Hanbang petrochemical, 650000 tons of Yizheng Chemical fiber, and 2.2 million tons of Hengli petrochemical, the operating rate of the market has reached more than 86%. In addition, another 1.1 million tons of PTA new production capacity of Dushan energy phase II will be put into operation, and the supply side pressurization still exists. Today, Yangzi Petrochemical announced that the 350000 ton unit planned to start maintenance, which can relieve the pressure of PTA supply to a certain extent.

Crude oil prices rebounded slightly on November 2, with WTI crude oil futures closing at $36.81/barrel. The demand for heating in winter has led to a further increase in crude oil demand. Meanwhile, OPEC + alliance is considering delaying the planned increase in supply in January, which has played a positive role in the rise of crude oil price.

However, compared with October, the downstream polyester market began to return to rationality in November, and the market wait-and-see sentiment increased. Both textile enterprises, textile mills and traders were basically cautious, with polyester operating load around 86%. In terms of price, the price of polyester filament factory is stable temporarily, and the mainstream polyester POY (150D / 48F) in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces is quoted at 5200-5500 yuan / ton. In terms of starting rate, the comprehensive starting rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms is around 93%. As of November 3, the starting rate of water jet and air-jet looms in Shengze area is about 80-90%. In terms of inventory, as of November 3, the inventory of grey fabric weaving in Shengze area was more than 40 days, and some manufacturers were difficult to make flat production and sales, and began to accumulate.

Xia Ting, an analyst at the business agency, believes that the international crude oil price rebounds in the short term and the cost side is favorable. But at present, PTA spot is sufficient, processing costs are high and new production capacity is about to be put into operation, and the downstream polyester demand market lacks confidence. It is expected that PTA market will continue to rebound, with insufficient power.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business agency, the nickel price fell slightly on the 2nd, with the spot nickel quotation of 118500 yuan / T, down 1.74% compared with the previous trading day, 4.19% higher than that at the beginning of the year, and 13.19% lower than the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

On the macro level, the second wave of global epidemic has soared, the European blockade has intensified, and investors have become increasingly worried about global economic growth and metal demand. At the same time, the strength of the US dollar has made us dollar denominated commodities more expensive for holders of other currencies, and further pressured metal prices. On the supply side, with the advent of rainy season in the Philippines, the nickel ore transportation volume decreased significantly. The window period of domestic nickel ore replenishment has passed, and the port nickel mine inventory is at a low level in recent years. The raw material inventory of ferronickel plants is mostly less than March. In the fourth quarter, domestic ferronickel may enter the process of substantial production reduction. However, the production capacity of nickel iron stainless steel in Indonesia continues to be put into production, and the future supply will further increase, squeezing the domestic market. Judging from the situation of downstream stainless steel enterprises, the inventory of 300 series stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan is still on the high side, and the consumption is weak at the end of the year, so the boost of demand side is expected to be limited. In September, Indonesia produced 55700 metal tons of ferronickel, an increase of 6.49% month on month.

3、 Future prospects

Post market forecast: the recent surge in nickel prices has been boosted by some mine closures in the Philippines, but the short-term mine closures are not the fundamental driving force for upward price. In November, the downstream gradually entered the off-season, combined with the impact of the epidemic situation, it is expected that the short-term nickel price will maintain a weak fluctuation.

Price trend

According to the data from the business club’s bulk list, the domestic PA66 market is strong in October, and the rise rate of various models of products is relatively large. As of November 1, the average offer price of PA66 medium viscosity injection molding class sample enterprises was about 26500 yuan / ton, an increase of 9.69% compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month.

On the upstream side of PA66, according to the data from the business club’s large list, domestic adipic acid in October ended the tepid market since April and turned to rise. East China adipic acid rose by 5.14% in the whole month. The main reason is the surge of upstream costs, the continuous rise of pure benzene price, and the improvement of downstream market. At present, the price range of adipic acid is 6800-7200 yuan / ton. In terms of supply, in October, the operating rate of adipic acid manufacturers remained stable, about 80% or more. The market supply was relatively sufficient, and the manufacturers’ inventory pressure was large. Dealers normally take goods, “silver ten” adipic acid price appeared small Yangchun market. In terms of adiponitrile and hexanediamine, as the main source of imports, and the rise of external disk, the pressure of cost side increased. Currently, the upstream three materials are generally favorable to the downstream PA66.

The support of adipic acid on the cost side of PA66 is fair, and the market of PA66 in October continues to be positive. After undertaking the domestic and foreign spot market, the operating rate of Yingwei is about 66% in September, while the domestic operating rate remains low. In terms of inventory, the current pattern of supply shortage remains unchanged, and the inventory position of the polymerization plant is on the low side. Moreover, due to the general supply of core old customers, the on-site supply is generally insufficient. In October, BASF, DuPont, Randy and other major international companies announced direct price increases. The replenishment operation of downstream factories tends to maintain the rigid demand, but the current home appliance and automobile industry has made obvious efforts. The consumption of PA66 is at the level of traditional peak season, and the purchase and sales volume at the end of the month has increased significantly, so that the transaction focus of PA66 market has been rising in recent years. Tight supply pattern into the traditional peak season, the increase will naturally further expand, PA66 is expected to continue the strong trend.

Business agency analysts believe: PA66 traditional peak season in October, the domestic market trend is strong. The price of upstream products in this month is positive, and the support of PA66 cost is acceptable. Downstream factory procurement follow-up on demand, traditional peak season consumption is large, support spot price. At present, tight supply and large consumption in the market are the key factors for the sharp rise of PA66 in October. At the same time, the external market helps to layer out, and it is expected that the market situation of PA66 will continue to be stronger in the short term.

Today (11.2) domestic cyclohexanone market downturn finishing. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average price of cyclohexanone in the domestic market today is 5850 yuan / ton, with a month on month increase of 2.33% and a year-on-year decrease of 35.36%. At present, the downstream polymerization plant and caprolactam are slightly weak, the chemical fiber sheet is on hold, the shipment of cyclohexanone is not smooth, and the offer is falling rapidly. Business community cyclohexanone analysts predict that the domestic market for cyclohexanone in the short term is mainly sorted out.

Regional price

6150-6250 yuan / ton in East China, cash delivery

6300-6400 yuan / ton in South China

5850-5950 yuan / ton in Shandong, cash delivery

The domestic BDO market continued to strengthen last week. According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, the average price of domestic BDO producers was 9816 yuan / ton on October 26, and 11300 yuan / ton on October 30. The price rose by 15.11%, 18.07% month on month and 5.01% on the same day. In terms of enterprise units, the second phase of Meike 100000 tons / year was installed at the end of October to replace the catalyst. At present, the unit is running at 50% of the load and is expected to be about 7 days. As of today (10.19), the spot bulk water negotiation in East China is 10500-10800 yuan / ton, the barreled bulk water negotiation is 11500-11900 yuan / ton (acceptance delivery); the bulk water negotiation in South China is 10500-10800 yuan / ton, and the barreled bulk water negotiation is 11500-11900 yuan / ton (acceptance delivery).

Some enterprises announced the settlement price in October and the listing price in November:

Settlement in October (bulk water delivery) listing in November (bulk water delivery)

Xinjiang Meike Chemical Co., Ltd. $9500 / ton East China, 9650 yuan / ton South China East China 10800-11500 yuan / ton, South China 11000-11600 yuan / ton

Xinjiang Lanshan Tunhe Chemical Co., Ltd. East China 9500 yuan / ton, South China 9600 yuan / ton, East China 11000 yuan / ton, South China 11200 yuan / ton

At present, the spot supply is still tight, supporting manufacturers’ high offer to support the market. Downstream contract procurement is the main part, and other downstream inventory and spot replenishment demand are pushed up by manufacturers, and the focus continues to rise. Business agency BDO analysts expect that this week the domestic BDO market will still be high finishing.

1、 Price trend:

According to the data of the business club, the domestic PA6 market fluctuated and rose in October. As of November 1, the mainstream offer price of 2.75-2.85 from traders was about 10800.00 yuan / ton, an increase of 3.51% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors:

The upstream caprolactam market price of PA6 fluctuated in October and rose in the second half of the month. As of October 30, the price of caprolactam liquid of Shandong Luxi Chemical Co., Ltd. was 9400 yuan / ton, that of Nanjing Dongfang caprolactam liquid was 10200 yuan / ton, that of Sinopec was 10100 yuan / ton, that of Baling Hengyi caprolactam liquid was 10100 yuan / ton, and that of Baling Petrochemical was 10100 yuan / ton. Starting from the second half of this month, caprolactam supply decreased. In addition, the raw material of pure benzene rose by styrene, which benefited caprolactam spot. But at the end of the month, the demand fell and the price fluctuated slightly. At present, the price rise of caprolactam slowed down, and the raw material pure benzene market began to fall. It is expected that the market trend of caprolactam will be weak and stable in the short term.

PA6 in September before the traditional peak season failed to force, early this month, PA6 slice generally continued the low horizontal trend. After the festival, the market power, the upstream lactam many enterprises overhaul or reduce the negative, supply reduction. Sinopec’s high-end caprolactam rose to increase market confidence. The rapid expansion of caprolactam in the middle of the month is good for PA6, while the far upstream crude oil is not good for the chemical industry chain due to the deterioration of the European and American epidemic situation. In this month, the downstream staple fiber and wrapping yarn enterprises were more active during the resumption period after the replenishment Festival, and then the replenishment demand failed to maintain. At the end of the month, the conventional spinning chip order was weak, and the PA6 market weakened again.

3、 Future forecast:

Business agency analysts believe: domestic PA6 market rose in October after falling, spot prices rose overall. The recent trend of upstream caprolactam has been adjusted, and the support for the cost side of PA6 is general. Downstream factories mainly take goods just as needed, and the upsurge of returning to work after the festival has not continued, and the purchasing at the end of the month is weak. Analysts believe that at the end of the month, the positive PA6 weakened, and it is expected that the spot price of PA6 will stabilize temporarily in the short term, which does not rule out the possibility of falling in the later period.

According to the price monitoring, in the 43rd week (10.26-10.30) of 2020, there are 5 kinds of commodities rising and 5 kinds of falling commodities in the price rising and falling list of nonferrous metals index, and there are 0 kinds of commodities that rise or fall to 0. The main commodities that rose were neodymium oxide (2.15%), silicon metal (1.65%) and nickel (0.93%); silver (- 3.29%), gold (- 0.88%) and copper (- 0.81%) declined. This week, the average rise and fall was – 0.01%.

The overall fluctuation of nonferrous metals prices this week was relatively small, among which precious metals were relatively weak. The main reason was that there was no sign that the United States was about to introduce any fiscal stimulus measures to alleviate the impact of the new epidemic on the economy, and investors bought us dollars in succession, which put pressure on the gold price. In addition, the sharp fall of European and American stock markets and oil prices, the spread of investor panic also exacerbated the gold sell-off The overall performance of metals is poor. Rare earth neodymium series rose slightly, and the sentiment of major traders entering the market was warming up compared with before, but the overall activity was still not high. At present, most operators have great hope for the future market, and the price of domestic rare earth market rose slightly.

Price trend

According to the business agency data monitoring, acetic anhydride prices rose in October, acetic anhydride market continued to rise. As of October 31, the average price of acetic anhydride was 5962.50 yuan / ton, which was 5.30% higher than 5662.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (October 1), and 0.42% higher than that of last year.

Acetic acid price trend

It can be seen from the trend chart of acetic acid price that the price of acetic acid first fell and then rose in October. The overall market of acetic anhydride rose sharply in October, and the cost of acetic anhydride rose, and the driving force for the rise of acetic anhydride increased.

Methanol price trend

It can be seen from the methanol price trend chart that the methanol price rose first and then fell in October, and the methanol market weakened, with an increase of 5.13% in October. The cost of acetic anhydride rose, and the driving force for the rise of acetic anhydride was greater, which was good for the market of acetic anhydride.

Market review and future forecast

According to Bai Jiaxin, an analyst of acetic anhydride data from business club, the prices of acetic anhydride raw materials acetic acid and methanol rose in October, and the cost of acetic anhydride rose; at the end of October, the growth of acetic acid slowed down, the price of methanol fell, and the driving force of acetic anhydride rise weakened; Yankuang acetic anhydride equipment stopped at the end of the month, the equipment operating rate of acetic anhydride manufacturers decreased, the supply of acetic anhydride decreased, and the supply of acetic anhydride enterprises was insufficient. In general, the increase of acetic anhydride cost in October prompted the price of acetic anhydride to rise. At the end of the month, the price of raw materials fell, and the pressure of acetic anhydride decline increased. The shutdown of Yankuang equipment led to insufficient supply of acetic anhydride and increased pressure of acetic anhydride rise. The price of acetic anhydride is expected to rise in the future.