Price trend:

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, the domestic ABS market continued to run strongly in November, and most of the spot prices in the market showed a strong trend. As of November 6, the mainstream offer price of general-purpose ABS was about 18450.00 yuan / ton, which was 5.43% higher than the average price at the beginning of the month.

Factor analysis:

ABS upstream styrene, domestic styrene market last month, the whole month’s upward trend gratifying. Affected by the strong demand, downstream enterprises shortened the shutdown period and scope during the National Day period, and the operating rate remained above 80%. The inventory of styrene production enterprises did not increase but decreased. At the end of October, the total inventory in East China was 237300 tons, showing an overall downward trend. In addition to the tight spot supply in South China, the supply of styrene in other regions was moderate. Supply is still expected to be tight in November, with high and stable demand and strong market mentality. At the same time, the downstream price goes up, pushing up styrene in reverse. Pure benzene inventory high, at the same time the demand is general, the recent price of styrene rose. Outside of the chemical industry, negative news. However, in the later stage, the imported goods were less, and the wharf continued to reduce the warehouse. It is expected that styrene will be strengthened in the near future.

In terms of acrylonitrile upstream of ABS, the raw material propylene weakened in October, and the current situation has recovered. The market sentiment of acrylonitrile is general. As for the far upstream crude oil, the fiscal scale stimulated by the US election may not be as large as expected, and the policy toward Iran may be relaxed, resulting in the recovery of crude oil supply and the fall of international oil price. In addition, overseas markets are worried about the rebound of the epidemic situation to restrain demand, and the cost side support of acrylonitrile is not ideal, and the operating rate of downstream acrylic fiber and other industries remains high. At present, there are enterprises overhauling and starting work, and the overall supply tends to be balanced, which is not good for the spot. It is expected that acrylonitrile will run smoothly in the near future.

In November, the domestic butadiene market was slightly weak. According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, the domestic butadiene market price remained at about 9200 yuan / ton at the beginning of this month. In October, affected by the higher profits of natural rubber futures, the price of synthetic rubber downstream of butadiene rose significantly. In the second half of this year, rubber demand recovered, and the downstream tire industry and rubber products industry of synthetic rubber gradually started to recover. The demand for synthetic rubber formed a support, and the whole industrial chain was favorable for linkage. At present, the sentiment of butadiene market is slowly digesting and finishing at a high level. The rise in the external market supports the domestic spot price. The northern spot supply is sufficient, and the downstream takes the goods at a low price, and the prices of some manufacturers are slightly weakened. It is expected that the market in the near future will be mainly organized.

At present, the domestic ABS market price continues in the peak season, and the spot price continues to rise. The prices of the three upstream materials are up and down, and the overall cost support is temporarily stable. In terms of supply, domestic ABS supply is still tight in general, and the rise in East China may slow down due to large arrival volume. The consumption of major domestic appliance enterprises and automobile industry has remained stable, and the market demand has a certain foundation. The resistance of the downstream to high price goods sources has been aggravated, and the recent domestic ABS spot price increase is fair.

Future forecast:

Business agency analysts believe: in early November, ABS market remained positive, prices of various brands continued to rise. Cost side of the upstream three materials overall narrow range of rise, the ABS cost side of the support is more stable. At present, ABS spot supply is still tight, downstream demand is temporarily stable, there is a psychological resistance to high price goods, and some profit margins have slowed down. ABS is expected to slow down in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price continued to rise this week, with the weekly low price of 6756 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, 6943 yuan / ton at the weekend, and the weekly high price of 6946 yuan / ton on Thursday, with the weekly increase of 2.77% and the weekly amplitude of 2.81%.

2、 Analysis and comment

According to the price chart of business agency, propylene price remained stable in the first half of October and plummeted by more than 10% in the second half. Since November 1, the price has been adjusted back. Since November 1, the price has risen by 200-250 yuan / ton. Today, the price has finally begun to stabilize, and some enterprises have declined slightly. The transaction volume in the market is between 6750 yuan / ton and 7250 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 6900 yuan / ton. At present, the shipment situation of the manufacturer is relatively ideal.

On November 5, the crude oil price did not change much, and the impact on propylene was limited.

The spot price of PP rose at the beginning of the week, up 1.43%. The futures market was also more ideal at the beginning of the week and flat in the later period, which had a slightly positive impact on propylene.

Acrylic acid market slightly down this week, the weekly decline of 0.69%, less impact on propylene.

The propylene oxide market fell sharply this week, with a weekly drop of 8.14%, which had a more obvious negative impact on propylene.

The price of epichlorohydrin stabilized after rising this week, with a weekly increase of 3.40%, which has a positive impact on propylene.

The domestic price of n-butanol stabilized after a small fall this week, with a weekly decline of 0.51%, which had a limited impact on propylene.

This week, octanol market rose over the weekend, up 1.14%, slightly positive impact on propylene.

The isopropanol market rose slightly this week, with a weekly increase of 0.83%, which also had a slight positive impact on propylene.

This week, East China phenol also fell slightly and then stabilized, with a weekly decline of 0.67%, which had little impact on propylene.

East China acetone rose sharply on Monday and rose slightly at the weekend, with a 6-day increase of 4.80%, which had a certain effect on propylene.

3、 Future forecast

The propylene analysts of the chemical branch of the business society think: in a comprehensive view, the current propylene manufacturers have less inventory pressure, smooth shipment, the crude oil price is general, and the downstream market is more favorable, which can achieve a certain support, and the propylene price has a large decline in the early stage, and has a certain rise this week, so it is expected that the price will start to stabilize in the near future.

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, as of November 5, the ex factory price of domestic propylene glycol was referred to near 9100 yuan / ton, and the average price was reduced by 233 yuan / ton, or 2.50%, compared with November 1; and the average price was reduced by 66 yuan / ton, or 0.73%, compared with November 1.

Raw materials fell support weakened, propylene glycol market weakness fell

In November, the domestic propylene glycol market was weak as a whole, and the cost support of propylene glycol gradually weakened due to the sharp decline of raw material propylene oxide. At present, the factory inventory is normal, downstream purchasing is maintained, and the export is slightly improved, but it is not enough to support the continuous high price offer of propylene glycol. Some propylene glycol factories have reduced their prices for shipment, and the low-end quotation has floated out of the market. At present, the overall domestic propylene glycol market has declined slightly, the overall trading atmosphere of the market is weak, and the wait-and-see mood increases. As of November 5, according to the monitoring data of the business agency, the ex factory price of domestic propylene glycol is around 9100 yuan / ton. Compared with November 1, the average price of propylene glycol is reduced by 233 yuan / ton, or 2.50%. Compared with November 1, the average price is reduced by 66 yuan / ton, up 0.73%.

 
Upstream, the domestic propylene oxide market continued to fall sharply since November. As of November 5, the average price quoted by propylene oxide enterprises was 16466.67 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1300 yuan / ton or 7.14% compared with November 11, according to the large list data of business associations. At present, the market has a strong wait-and-see mood, and the operators are cautious in their operation.

The wind direction tends to be downward as a whole, and the future market may continue to be weak

At present, the overall trend of the market tends to be downward, and the operators are more cautious to wait and see, and the downstream rigid demand is the main factor. The propylene glycol data analyst of the business agency believes that the propylene glycol market may continue to be weak in the short term and adjust its operation in a narrow range.

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the external price of ethylene has fallen recently. The average price of ethylene on the first day is 724.25 US dollars / ton, and the price on the fifth day is 713.25 US dollars / ton, down 1.52%. The current price is down 5.87% month on month, and the current price is 13.91% lower than last year.

In the near future, the overall market of ethylene in the external market shows a downward trend. Asian ethylene market prices fell, with CFR Northeast Asia closing at $725-745 / T and CFR Southeast Asia closing at $730-740 / T as of the 4th. The European ethylene market price fell slightly. As of the 4th, the European ethylene market price was FD, which closed at 692-703 US dollars / ton in northwest Europe and 678-687 US dollars / ton in CIF northwest Europe. Ethylene prices in the U.S. fell to 385-397 US dollars / ton as of the 4th. The ethylene market in Europe and the United States declined slightly in early November. Generally speaking, the trading atmosphere of the whole ethylene market was general, and the market continued to decline.

International: on November 4, the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market prices rose sharply, with the settlement price of main contracts at $39.15/barrel, up $1.49 or 3.95%. Brent crude oil futures market prices rose sharply, with the settlement price of main contracts at $41.23/barrel, up $1.52 or 3.83%. US oil rose nearly 4% on Wednesday, mainly due to the rapid rise in oil prices and the sharp drop in US crude oil inventories after US President trump declared victory in the process of election results not yet produced. Although the crude oil rose recently, the impact of the crude oil slump has not been eliminated, which can not support the cost of ethylene, and the external market of ethylene declined slightly.

Recently, styrene in East China continued to rise, with an overall quotation of 7400-7500 yuan / ton. In the night trading, crude oil and styrene futures rose sharply, the cost of raw materials was supported to some extent, social inventory continued to decrease, some domestic production enterprises’ inventory was low, local supply was tight, supply and demand would continue to support in the face of the market. The downstream replenishment of the terminal is positive, and the optimistic expectation of the downstream can still play a supporting role in the Styrene Market and capital, and the profits of the styrene industrial chain are considerable. Good short-term styrene, is expected to continue to rise after consolidation, easy to rise but difficult to fall.

In terms of crude oil, the ethylene analysts of the chemical branch of the business agency believe that: at present, the crude oil production in the United States has decreased, and the crude oil inventory has dropped to the lowest level in the week up to April 3, which is good for the upward trend of oil price. Therefore, the data analysts of business agency predict that the external price of ethylene will mainly rise next.

1、 Price trend

As of November 5, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 14166.67 yuan / ton, up 2.41% from the beginning of the week, down 4.49% month on month and 7.21% year-on-year.

2、 Market analysis

R22 market rose this week, with prices generally rising by 300-500 yuan / ton. This round of rise is mainly due to the reduction of quota. For example, Shandong Dongyue has few quotas left, and the manufacturers’ price sentiment is rising again. At the same time, chloroform market at the raw material end is rising sharply, hydrofluoric acid is weak and stable, and the support force is fair. Supported by the quota and cost, the price of refrigerant R22 rebounds, but the support force of demand side is weak and continues to be sluggish. Therefore, there is no actual driving force for R22 to go up sharply for the time being Weak market stability or will continue. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, as of November 5, the prices of mainstream manufacturers in refrigerant R22 market are about 13000-16000 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction price is slightly lower.

Enterprise products rose and fell from November 5 to October 30

Zhejiang Juhua R22 13000 yuan / ton 12500 yuan / ton 500 yuan

Jiuzhou chemical R22 13000 yuan / ton 12500 yuan / ton 500 yuan

Longxun trade R22 12800 yuan / ton 12500 yuan / ton 300 yuan

Shanghai lengqi R22 13000 yuan / ton 12500 yuan / ton 500 yuan

Lengwang technology R22 15000 yuan / T —-

Xileng chemical R22 15800 yuan / ton 15800 yuan / ton

In the later stage, the price of fluorfluoric acid is expected to be stable. However, the domestic manufacturers are expected to maintain a stable supply rate of RMB 770 / d. however, the domestic manufacturers are expected to maintain a stable supply rate of RMB 770 per day.

According to the monitoring of the bulk data of the business agency, due to the continuous high price of liquid chlorine for raw materials, the market of chloroform in Shandong has risen sharply. As of November 4, the average price of chloroform in Shandong was about 2300 yuan / ton, up 15% compared with the beginning of the month and 21.05% higher than the same period of last month. At present, the domestic trichloromethane market is running stably for the time being. Enterprises are not starting high. The overall supply and demand of the industry are weak. The downstream market is mainly wait-and-see. In the future market, we need to pay attention to the raw material market. It is expected that the price of chloroform will remain stable in a short period of time.

3、 Future forecast

Refrigerants of business agency believe that the price of refrigerant R22 rebounds due to the support of quota and cost, but the support force of demand side is weak and continues to be depressed. Therefore, there is no actual driving force for R22 to rise sharply. It is expected that R22 will stabilize after rising in the short term, so we should wait and see carefully.

According to the data of bulk commodity list of business agency, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong Province on the 3rd day was 1066.67 yuan / ton, and that on the 4th day was 1100.00 yuan / ton, an increase of 3.12%. The current price is up 8.20% month on month, and the current price is down 0.30% year on year.

Recently, the domestic market price of formaldehyde is on the rise. As of November 4, the mainstream factory quotation in Central China is about 1055 yuan / ton, that of North China is 860 yuan / ton, and that of East China is 1090 yuan / ton. Linyi Yinhe formaldehyde production capacity is 120000 tons / year, and the formaldehyde plant is normal, with a daily output of 200 tons. Recently, the formaldehyde plant in Shandong Province has been in normal operation. The trading atmosphere in the market was better than that in the earlier period, the actual transaction was ok, and the formaldehyde market was slightly higher.

Situation of upstream methanol: Recently, the domestic methanol market rebounded, and some manufacturers continued to increase the ex factory quotation, and the price adjustment range was about 30-50 yuan / ton in two days. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of methanol producers in Shandong Province was 1882 yuan / ton on November 1, and 1902 yuan / ton on November 3 in Shandong Province. The price cycle increased by 1.06%, and the price rose by 5.99% month on month, with a year-on-year decrease of 38.26%. The methanol market quotation in various regions has also increased to varying degrees, especially in Shandong, Anhui and Fujian. The main factors of this price rise are the favorable futures, the rebound of international crude oil price, the maintenance of production enterprises in some regions, the low inventory, and the favorable influence of the recovery of downstream demand. In the short term, the positive factors will still remain for a period of time, traders are full of bullish mentality. Methanol market rise gives formaldehyde cost support.

In the near future, the demand for formaldehyde in traditional downstream timber and infrastructure formwork is fair, and the on-site trading atmosphere is relatively positive, and the support from the demand side is good. Formaldehyde manufacturers inventory low, rising market.

In recent days, the upstream raw material methanol continued to rise, and the cost side support was good. Therefore, the formaldehyde analysts of the chemical branch of the business society predicted that the formaldehyde price in Shandong Province would rise slightly in the near future.

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, as of November 4, the average ex factory price of domestic n-butanol was 6550 yuan / ton. Compared with November 1, the average price of domestic n-butanol decreased by 33 yuan / ton, or 0.51%; compared with October 1, the average price was increased by 217 yuan / ton, or 3.42%.

In October, the overall market of n-butanol increased significantly. After the National Day holiday, the transaction center of n-butanol market continued to move towards the high-end. On October 22, the average price of domestic n-butanol increased to 6633 yuan / ton, 300 yuan / ton, or 4.74% higher than that at the beginning of the month. Then, the overall market entered a high stable operation channel. Until the end of the month, due to the decline of downstream butyl propyl butyl products and the original As of October 31, the reference value of domestic n-butanol factory was 6583 yuan / ton, which was 250 yuan / ton or 3.95% higher than that in early October.

In November and November 3, the consolidation of the mainstream price of n-butanol in China is weakening. Some factories in Shandong Province have reduced the ex factory quotation of n-butanol by 50-100 yuan / ton. At present, the downstream just needs to purchase. At present, as of the 4th, Shandong lihuayi n-butanol is delivered at 6550 yuan / ton. The price of n-butanol in Luxi Chemical Industry is 6400 yuan / ton.

Upstream, on November 4, the propylene market price in Shandong still rose. According to the price chart of business agency, propylene price remained stable in the first half of October and plummeted by more than 10% in the second half. Since November 1, there has been a correction in prices. Today, most enterprises’ prices continue to rise slightly, up about 5 yuan / ton. Since November, they have risen by 150-200 yuan / ton. At present, the market turnover is between 6700 yuan / ton and 7150 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 6850 yuan / ton. At present, the shipment situation of the manufacturer is better than that in the earlier stage.

Export has increased, in the short term n-butanol consolidation

At present, due to the weakening of butyl ester, n-butanol trading atmosphere is light, but many factories still maintain stable market quotation. In addition, overseas demand has increased, which gives support to the domestic market of n-butanol. Therefore, the n-butanol datagrapher of the business club believes that the domestic n-butanol market will mainly be consolidation operation in the future.

Today (11.4) the domestic methanol market continued to rise, and some manufacturers continued to increase the ex factory quotation by about 50 yuan / ton. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of methanol producers in Shandong was 1882 yuan / ton on November 1, and 1940 yuan / ton on November 4. The price cycle increased by 3.05%, the price rose by 8.08% month on month, and decreased by 9.77% year on year. Affected by the weather in some areas, there is no quotation for shutdown and maintenance of the device. At present, the inventory of production enterprises is not high, and the attitude of the industry is optimistic. At present, the profits of traders are fair, and the methanol analysts of the business society predict that the domestic methanol market will fluctuate in the short term.

As of 11.4, summary of methanol market prices in various regions:

Regional price

Qinghai Area/

RMB 1750-1760 / t spot exchange in Shanxi

RMB 1780-1800 per ton in Liaoning

2000-2005 yuan / ton, tax included tank discharge in Fujian area

The factory reference of Lianghu area is 1920-2000 yuan / ton

Anhui Province 1930-1950 yuan / T acceptance delivery

Henan Province factory reference 1780-1800 yuan / ton

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of November 4, the average price of silicone DMC market quotation in the mainstream areas of data monitoring was 22500 yuan / ton. Compared with October 31, the average price was increased by 2100 yuan / ton, or 10.29%. Compared with October 1, the average price was increased by 4700 yuan / ton, or 26.40%.

In October, domestic silicone DMC market “soared up” all the way, singing very close

After the National Day in October, the domestic silicone DMC market began to rise steadily. The downstream demand was good, the procurement was normal, the upstream and downstream conduction support was smooth, and the market situation was good. At the end of the first half of the month, the domestic silicone DMC mainstream quotation reference was 18000-18500 yuan / ton, and the increase was around 400-600 yuan / ton in half a month.

Since the second half of the month, the latest transaction price of silicone DMC market has moved closer to the high-end market again, and the rising strength continues to increase. The low-end offer continues to decrease, and the high-low price gap is constantly narrowing. The industry is full of confidence, and the rising sentiment is high. The single rise of monomer factory is about 500 yuan / ton. Close to the end of the month, the phenomenon of market closure increased. At the same time, the major monomer factories once again opened the curtain of collective rise, with an increase range of 200-600 yuan / ton, and the high-end offer has exceeded 20500 yuan / ton. As of October 31, the average price of silicone DMC market quotation in mainstream areas of data monitoring is 20400 yuan / ton, which is 2600 yuan / ton, or 14.61% higher than that on October 1.

In November, silicone DMC has broken through 22000 yuan / ton to meet the “soaring price and be reluctant to sell”!

In November, the silicone DMC remained high until the factory was reluctant to sell, and many factories closed the offer. According to the data of only a few offer factories, the price of silicone DMC has exceeded 22500 yuan / ton, and the basic transaction price has exceeded 22000 yuan / ton. At present, the inventory is low, the factory is reluctant to sell, and the closing phenomenon is not alleviated, so the market is slightly chaotic The high price quoted by the carrier has exceeded 23000 yuan / ton. As of the 4th day, the average price of silicone DMC market quotation in the mainstream areas was 22500 yuan / ton. Compared with October 31, the average price was increased by 2100 yuan / ton, or 10.29%. Compared with October 1, the average price was increased by 4700 yuan / ton, or 26.40%.

Downstream, raw materials continue to rise, downstream raw rubber silicone market also followed the pace of rise. At present, the mainstream offer of raw rubber is around 22000-22500 yuan / ton, and the mainstream offer of silica gel is 22000-23000 yuan / ton. At present, the attitude of the manufacturers to support the price is still unchanged, the upstream and downstream transmission is smooth, and the goods are actively prepared. It is expected to be strong in the short term.

The arrangement is compact, the downstream stock is positive, and there is still a small upward space under the high and stable market

At present, the silicone DMC manufacturers have a compact list, low inventory, and active downstream goods taking. The silicone Data Engineer of the business agency believes that under the support of the good, the silicone DMC will mainly run with high stability in the short term, or there will still be a small upward space.

1、 Melamine price trend

(Figure: P value curve of melamine product)

2、 Market analysis

Recently, the melamine market has been running steadily. According to the monitoring sample data of business agency, as of November 3, the average price quoted by melamine enterprises was 5983.33 yuan / ton, which was 4.97% higher than last Tuesday (October 27) and 6.85% higher than that of October 3.

The supply of goods in the market is tight, and there is no pressure on enterprises to take goods. The market prices in some regions are rising and the market is running steadily. At present, the mainstream quotation of melamine in Shandong is around 6000 yuan / ton, that in Xinjiang is about 5100 yuan / ton, that in Sichuan is about 5700 yuan / ton, and that in Henan is around 5900 yuan / ton.

For upstream urea, the factory price of urea in Shandong Province rose on November 2, 13.33 yuan / ton, or 0.75% higher than that on October 30. The recent high-level consolidation of upstream liquid ammonia has a good cost support. Domestic demand is fair, agricultural demand in some areas has been followed up, appropriate procurement, industrial demand is in line with the market, mainly follow-up on bargain hunting, and some goods sources continue to gather in port. In terms of supply, some enterprises limited production and equipment maintenance, and local spot shortage.

On November 2, the commodity price index of urea and melamine was 123.67, which was 2.68 points lower than yesterday, 9.89% lower than 137.25 points (2020-04-21), and 54.09% higher than 80.26 points, the lowest point on October 14, 2013. (Note: period refers to 2012-01-01 to present)

3、 Future forecast

Melamine analysts from the business agency believe that the upstream urea price has risen slightly in the near future, and the supply side is tight, and the market performance is fair. It is expected that in the short term, the melamine market may be strong and stable, and more attention should be paid to the market information guidance for the specific trend.