1、 Price trend

This week, the factory price of urea in Shandong Province rose. The quoted price rose from 1790.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 1793.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 3.33 yuan / ton or 0.19%, 2.09% higher than the same period last year. Overall, the urea market rose this week, and the urea commodity index on November 6 was 83.41.

2、 Market analysis

From the manufacturer’s quotation point of view, the mainstream urea factory price in Shandong area rose this week. At the end of this week, the price of Yangmei plain urea was 1790 yuan / ton, which was temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; the quotation of Shandong Ruixing urea was 1790 yuan / ton at the end of this week, which was temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; the price of open water urea was 1800 yuan / ton this weekend, which was increased by 10 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week.

From the perspective of supply and demand, the domestic demand is fair, the agricultural demand in the northern region has followed up, and the industrial demand follows the market and purchases on demand. On the supply side, some enterprises limited production and equipment maintenance, resulting in local spot shortage.

From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chain, the overall decline of urea upstream products this week: the price of liquefied natural gas fell, with the quotation of liquefied natural gas falling from 3776.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 3696.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with a decrease of 2.12%, 12.12% compared with the same period of last year; the price of liquid ammonia fell this week, from 3193.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 3133.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 1.88% compared with the same period last year 19% year on year. The price of melamine downstream of urea rose slightly this week, rising by 1.99% from 5866.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 5983.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week. Overall, this week’s urea cost support is weak.

3、 Future forecast

In the middle of November, the market price of urea in Shandong Province rose slightly. Urea analysts of the business club believe that the current agricultural demand has followed up, and the downstream industry is still enthusiastic about urea procurement, and the industrial demand is to be purchased on demand. It is expected that the short-term urea market will fluctuate and rise slightly.

The commodity index of hydrogenated benzene on November 7 was 38.16, unchanged with yesterday, down 62.59% from 102.01 (2014-01-09), and 27.24% higher than 29.99, the lowest point on April 07, 2020. (Note: the period refers to December 1, 2013 to now).

Price rise and fall of domestic main hydrobenzene markets from November 2 to 6 (unit: yuan / ton)

Regional prices rose and fell weekly on the 2nd and 6th

East China 3550-3650 3750-3800 + 175

Shandong 3350-3400 3550-3600 + 200

This week (November 2-6), the market price of hydrobenzene in Shandong Province rose, at 3375 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 3575 yuan / ton at the weekend, up 200 yuan / ton.

Summary of Sinopec’s pure benzene price adjustment in November 2020 (unit: yuan / ton)

Price adjustment amount after date adjustment

November 4 3750 + 150

In November 2020, Sinopec’s pure benzene price will be increased by 150 yuan / ton, and 3750 yuan / ton will be implemented by all its refineries.

Due to the strong ex factory benzene price of Shandong Petrochemical Co., Ltd., the ex factory price of pure benzene was further increased by the end of October At the end of the week, the styrene market dropped slightly, the price of hydrogenated benzene fell slightly, and the tender price of crude benzene rose on Thursday.

As for the future market, the business agency believes that the price of styrene to pure benzene and hydrogenated benzene has been reduced this week. Affected by the rising cost of raw materials, the downstream profit is reduced, and the supply and demand side of pure benzene is weak. There is a certain pressure on the upward trend. It is expected that the future market will be dominated by high consolidation.

1、 Price trend

The comprehensive price of hydrochloric acid in North China fell this week, with the quotation falling by 2.40% from 312.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 305.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week. Overall, the market of hydrochloric acid fell this week, and the commodity index of hydrochloric acid on November 6 was 80.26.

2、 Market analysis

From the manufacturer’s quotation point of view, this week hydrochloric acid Market manufacturer quotation falls, the overall market is general. The quotation of Taiyuan kunshengda hydrochloric acid is 480 yuan / T, which is temporarily stable; Dezhou Shihua hydrochloric acid is 700 yuan / T, which is temporarily stable; Wenshui synthetic hydrochloric acid is 230 yuan / T at weekend, which is 30 yuan / t lower than that at the beginning of the week; Jinan Yuanfei hydrochloric acid is 300 yuan / T at weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; Dezhou Meihua hydrochloric acid is quoted at 210 yuan / T at weekend, compared with the beginning of the week It increased by 40 yuan / ton.

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the upstream liquid chlorine market is generally in general, which gives weak support to hydrochloric acid, while the downstream silica market has a downward trend recently, and the market price of ammonium chloride is rising steadily, which has a positive impact on hydrochloric acid. This week, the hydrochloric acid market as a whole seems to rise slightly, and the difficulty of hydrochloric acid delivery is still a big problem.

3、 Future forecast

The recent market of liquid chlorine in the upstream is general, while the market of silica and ammonium chloride in the downstream is slightly improved. Business agency analysts believe that hydrochloric acid has risen slightly in the near future.

1、 Price trend

The domestic xylene market continued its downward trend this week. As of Friday, the domestic average price was about 3330 yuan / ton, down 1.19% month on month.

2、 Analysis and comment

Xylene prices continued to fall this week. Sinopec’s enterprises in South China and central China will cut the price of xylene by about 100 yuan / ton this week. The port inventory is high. At present, the port inventory in East China is about 135000 tons, which is about 5000 tons lower than last week. The pressure to go to the warehouse is not reduced, the price is weak, and the demand has not improved. Market oversupply, downstream Px, gasoline blending demand is general. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 3430 yuan / ton. The future market will focus on the outcome of the US election, the progress of the US economic stimulus plan, the fluctuation of the US dollar index and the stock market, the geographical situation in the Middle East and the impact of OPEC + on crude oil supply, the impact of the continuous deterioration of overseas epidemic situation on the demand for crude oil, the progress in the research and development of the new crown vaccine, the global economic recovery, and the European and American economic recovery relief plan Progress.

In terms of crude oil, API and EIA data released in the early morning and night of Beijing time showed that the crude oil storage data of the United States last week was significantly lower than expected, and the news that OPEC + and Russia are considering a more substantial reduction in production at the beginning of next year boosted the bottom of the international crude oil recovery at the beginning of the week. However, the new epidemic situation in Europe and the United States is becoming more and more severe, and the result of the US election is still pending, which makes the market sense As of Friday, Brent rose 2.095 USD / barrel to 38.3 USD / barrel, up 5.79% from last week. At present, the main uncertain factors in the market come from the new crown epidemic in Europe and the United States and the uncertainty of the US presidential election. The final direction of crude oil will not take further action until the demand side is better and the US election is clear. In the medium term, oil prices mainly depend on the recovery of demand side and the direction of macro market.

Downstream, in terms of PX market, the listed price of domestic Sinopec’s enterprises was about 4300 yuan / ton this week, and the latest external price was about 498 US dollars / ton FOB Korea and 516 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that the short-term PX market will continue to decline. In terms of PTA market, the market price continued to decline this week. The domestic PTA spot market price was about 3126 yuan / ton, and the external price was about 421 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that PTA price will continue to decline next week. In terms of ox market, Sinopec quoted 4400 yuan / T of o-benzene, and the external price of o-benzene was about 532 USD / T FOB Korea and 553 USD / T CFR China. It is expected that the price of o-benzene will continue to decline next week.

3、 Future forecast

Xylene analysts of the chemical branch of the business society think: first look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of us oil drilling and EIA, API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the worsening global epidemic situation on crude oil demand, the progress of industrial chain recovery, the economic and trade situation of Europe and the United States and the progress of economic recovery and rescue plan. Third, look at the linkage between the US dollar index and the stock market, the progress in the research and development of the new crown vaccine, and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and China and the United States. Next week, we will focus on the US general election, the progress of a new round of US stimulus measures, and the impact of dollar index and stock market volatility on the trend of crude oil. Overall, it is expected that xylene in domestic market will be weak and fluctuate slightly next week.

1、 Price trend

According to the data from the business club’s bulk list, the domestic toluene market has been stable this week. As of Friday, the domestic market average price was about 3300 yuan / ton, down 0.3% month on month.

2、 Analysis and comment

Supported by the rebound of international crude oil price, toluene price trend is stable this week. Sinopec’s enterprises listed toluene price stable this week. Port inventory fell slightly, but the pressure to the warehouse did not decrease. Market oversupply, downstream blending oil and solvent demand is general, price is weak, demand has not improved. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 3330 yuan / ton. The future market will focus on the outcome of the US election, the progress of the US economic stimulus plan, the fluctuation of the US dollar index and the stock market, the geographical situation in the Middle East and the impact of OPEC + on crude oil supply, the impact of the continuous deterioration of overseas epidemic situation on the demand for crude oil, the progress in the research and development of the new crown vaccine, the global economic recovery, and the European and American economic recovery relief plan Progress.

In terms of crude oil, API and EIA data released in the early morning and night of Beijing time showed that the crude oil storage data of the United States last week was significantly lower than expected, and the news that OPEC + and Russia are considering a more substantial reduction in production at the beginning of next year boosted the bottom of the international crude oil recovery at the beginning of the week. However, the new epidemic situation in Europe and the United States is becoming more and more severe, and the result of the US election is still pending, which makes the market sense As of Friday, Brent rose 2.095 USD / barrel to 38.3 USD / barrel, up 5.79% from last week. At present, the main uncertain factors in the market come from the new crown epidemic in Europe and the United States and the uncertainty of the US presidential election. The final direction of crude oil will not take further action until the demand side is better and the US election is clear. In the medium term, oil prices mainly depend on the recovery of demand side and the direction of macro market.

Downstream, TDI continued the downward trend this week, the market mentality is cautious, trading atmosphere is weak, pay attention to factory policy guidance. At present, 15000 yuan / ton for domestic goods and 15500 yuan / ton for Shanghai goods. It is expected that the short-term TDI market will continue to decline. In terms of PX market, Sinopec’s listed price this week is about 4300 yuan / ton, and the latest price of external disk is about 498 US dollars / ton FOB Korea and 516 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that the short-term PX market will continue to decline.

3、 Future forecast

According to toluene analyst of chemical branch of business society: first look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of American oil wells and EIA, API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the worsening global epidemic situation on crude oil demand, the progress of industrial chain recovery, the economic and trade situation of Europe and the United States and the progress of economic recovery and rescue plan. Third, look at the linkage between the US dollar index and the stock market, the progress in the research and development of the new crown vaccine, and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and China and the United States. Next week, we will focus on the US general election, the progress of a new round of US stimulus measures, and the impact of dollar index and stock market volatility on the trend of crude oil. Overall, it is expected that toluene in the domestic market will be weak and fluctuate slightly next week.

The domestic BDO market was still rising last week. According to sample data monitored by business society, the average price of domestic BDO producers on November 2 was 11300 yuan / ton, the average price of domestic BDO producers on November 6 was 11675 yuan / ton, the price increased by 3.32% in the week, and the price rose 36.82% on a month-on-year basis, up 22.64% year on year. For enterprise installations, Dongyuan will be overhauled on October 30, with 20 days expected; new industry is expected to restart in the middle; Tianye plans to restart 30000 tons of units in November; Shaanxi Ronghe plans to restart in November. As of today (11.9), the main flow of retail water in South China has been discussed from 11600 to 12000 yuan / ton; the mainstream spot bulk water negotiation in East China is 11600-12000 yuan / ton.

Some enterprises announced the October settlement price, which was listed in November:

Enterprise settlement in October (bulk water delivery) listing in November (bulk water delivery)

Xinjiang Meike Chemical Co., Ltd. RMB 9500 / T East China, 9650 yuan / T South China 10800-11500 yuan / ton, South China 11000-11600 yuan / ton

Xinjiang lanshantun River Chemical Co., Ltd. 9500 yuan / T in East China, 9600 yuan / T in South China, 11000 yuan / T in East China and 11200 yuan / ton in South China

At present, the spot supply is still tight, supporting the high-level offer of manufacturers. Downstream contract procurement is the main, other downstream storage and spot replenishment demand, the manufacturers pushed up strongly, the center of gravity continued to rise. BDO analysts at business agency expect that the domestic BDO market will still be at a high level this week.

Trade name: ammonium chloride

Latest price (November 9): 627.50 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the market of ammonium chloride is stable. According to the monitoring of business agency, the price of dry ammonium chloride in China was 627.50 yuan / ton on the 9th, which was the same as the price of the previous day. According to the understanding of the business association, the overall operating rate of the combined alkali plant is about 70%. At present, some enterprises have started to stop for maintenance, and the maintenance enterprises in the later stage may increase. The overall operating rate will further decrease, so as to relieve the pressure of ammonium chloride inventory. The overall demand is still light. According to the business agency, the overall operating rate of domestic scale compound fertilizer enterprises is between 40% and 50%. The ex factory price of ammonium chloride is basically stable. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the 600000 T / a ammonium chloride plant of China Salt Kunshan will be in normal operation on November 9, 2020, with the ex factory price of 610 yuan / ton and the factory price of wet ammonium 540 yuan / ton.

After market forecast, demand off-season, combined with high inventory, it is expected that the market of ammonium chloride will continue to be weak and stable in the short term. With the increase of maintenance efforts of enterprises, there may be a slight rebound in the later period.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business agency, the nickel price rose slightly on the 9th, with the spot nickel quotation of 120666.67 yuan / ton, up 1.12% compared with the previous trading day, 6.1% higher than the beginning of the year, and 10.27% lower than the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

The US presidential election came to an end overnight, and macro expectations boosted the nonferrous metals market in the short term. The export of Philippine nickel ore is still limited. Before the rainy season, the domestic nickel ore reserve is lower than the same period level, and the external price of nickel ore is firm. At present, Indonesia is in a state of increasing supply and demand, while domestic demand is facing a high level and supply is expected to decline gradually. With the expected increase of Indonesia’s NPI imports, the tight pattern of domestic nickel ore and ferronickel has been loosened in the short term. Domestic nickel stocks in Shanghai fell 1867 tons to 29528 tons last week, a week-on-week decline of 6.32%, a new low in more than five months.

3、 Future prospects

However, the supply and demand of nickel market are expected to be tight in the short term, while the supply and demand of nickel market are expected to be tight, while the supply of nickel is expected to be weak in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business society, the average price of domestic grade 52 grade I products of chlorinated paraffin on November 2 was 4933 yuan / ton, and the average price of domestic grade 52 grade-I products was 5033 yuan / ton on November 6, and the price of the first class products increased by 2.03% this week.

2、 Market analysis

The price of chlorinated paraffin increased this week as raw materials rose at the beginning of the week. This week, the start rate of chlorinated paraffin enterprises is about 60%. The factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Jiangsu Province is 4700-5100 yuan / ton, that of Hebei is 4700-4900 yuan / ton, and that of Henan area is 4500-5200 yuan / ton. The factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Northeast China is 4500-5300 yuan / ton. The factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Shandong Province is 4500-4900 yuan / ton. The factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Northwest China is 4700-5400 yuan / ton. The factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in East China is 4800-5000 yuan / ton. The factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in North China is 4500-5200 yuan / ton. The factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in South China is 4600-5100 yuan / ton.

The raw material market prices are running at a high level this week. The price of raw liquid wax fell after rising this week, and the demand for liquid wax was insufficient, and the liquid wax was stable. In the early Zhou, the price of raw liquid chlorine increased due to the shortage of supply and maintenance of some enterprises. Liquid chlorine prices began to fall over the weekend. Downstream enterprises have a strong attitude towards chlorinated paraffin.

3、 Post market forecast

Analysts of chlorinated paraffin in business agency believe that the current price of chlorinated paraffin raw materials fluctuates high and the cost support is insufficient. Chlorinated paraffin is shipped generally. The downstream has obvious price offset for chlorinated paraffin, and the investment is general. It is expected that the price of chlorinated paraffin will be stable in the short term.

According to the price monitoring data of the business agency, as of November 6, the reference average price of domestic n-propanol with packaging in mainstream areas was around 11533 yuan / ton, which was 267 yuan / ton or 2.37% higher than that on November 1 (with an average price of 11266 yuan); on October 1 (the average price was 11366 yuan), the average price was increased by 167 yuan / ton, or 1.47%.

Since November, the domestic n-propanol market has been operating steadily. Until the 6th, the domestic market of n-propanol rose slightly. Driven by Shandong and Nanjing, the ex factory price of n-propanol generally rose by 200-300 yuan / ton. In Shandong, the ex factory price of n-propanol (bulk water) was around 10600-11000 yuan / ton, and that of n-propanol (including package) was 11500-11800 yuan Nanjing area: the ex factory price of n-propanol (bulk water) is around 10300-10800 yuan tons. At present, the downstream just needs to purchase, and this price is slightly upward or mainly due to the support of the upstream industrial chain propylene market for several days. At present, the business has a good mentality and the inventory level is normal. As of the 6th, the reference average price of domestic n-propanol with packaging in mainstream areas was around 11533 yuan / ton, which was 267 yuan / ton or 2.37% higher than that on November 1 (the average price was 11266 yuan).

In terms of raw materials, the recent external ethylene market overall showed a downward trend. Asian ethylene market prices fell, with CFR Northeast Asia closing at $740-750 / T and CFR Southeast Asia closing at $730-740 / T as of the 5th. The European ethylene market price fell slightly. As of the 5th, the European ethylene market price was FD, which closed at 692-703 US dollars / ton in northwest Europe and 678-687 US dollars / ton in CIF northwest Europe. Ethylene prices in the U.S. fell to 385-397 US dollars / ton as of the 5th. The ethylene market in Europe and the United States declined slightly in early November. Generally speaking, the trading atmosphere of the whole ethylene market was general, and the market continued to decline.

Internationally, on November 5, the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market price fell, with the settlement price of the main contract at $38.79/barrel, down $0.36. Brent crude oil futures market prices fell, with the main contract settlement price of $40.93/barrel, down $0.30. Oil prices fell slightly, mainly due to the market focus returning to the epidemic concerns and the impact of the resulting economic slowdown on fuel demand.

Demand for fixed n-propanol after the market is more stable, the rise and fall will be limited

In the short term, affected by the relatively fixed downstream demand, the domestic n-propanol market will enter a stable trend in the future, with a stable overall mentality, and the subsequent ups and downs will be limited. In the long run, the consumption of low toxic n-propanol will continue to grow in recent years, driven by the development of downstream coatings, spray painting, ink, adhesives and other industries, and under the situation of stricter national environmental protection policies. The application advantages of n-propanol will be more obvious. With the continuous improvement of environmental protection requirements of coating industry in the future, n-propanol is expected to become the most important solvent in the coating field, and the market development prospect is bright.