1、 Price trend of propylene oxide

(Figure: P value curve of propylene oxide product)

2、 Market analysis

In recent years, the market of propylene oxide has been rising strongly. As of November 16, the average price quoted by propylene oxide enterprises was 17366.67 yuan / ton, up 18.95% compared with last Monday (November 9) and 8.44% lower than that on October 16, according to the data of the business club. The inventory of propylene oxide plant is pressureless, some of which are controlled. The inventory of raw materials downstream of the terminal is low, and the willingness to replenish is strong, which supports the price rise of propylene oxide. At present, the mainstream quotation of propylene oxide Market in Shandong is around 16800-17300 yuan / ton.

Upstream propylene, November 16, Shandong propylene market price fluctuated slightly. According to the price chart of business agency, propylene price remained stable in the first half of October and plummeted by more than 10% in the second half. Since November 1, the price has been adjusted back. Since November 1, the price has risen 200-250 yuan / ton. After a short period of stabilization, the price dropped slightly by about 100 yuan / ton on August 8 and 9 and then stabilized again. On the 12th, it rose 50 yuan / ton and then stabilized again. Today’s price is up and down slightly. The market transaction is between 6830 yuan / ton and 7200 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 6850 yuan / ton. At present, the inventory of manufacturers is controllable, and the shipment situation is still ideal.

As of November 13, the reference average price of domestic n-propanol including packaging in mainstream areas was 11466.67 yuan / ton, up 1.78% compared with November 1 For downstream propylene glycol, according to the monitoring data of the business agency, as of November 13, the factory average price of domestic propylene glycol was 10666.67 yuan / ton, which was 14.29% higher than the price at the beginning of the month; for downstream soft foam polyether, on November 16, the market price of soft foam polyether in Shandong increased, the price of raw material propylene oxide increased, the cost support was strengthened, and the actual transaction atmosphere in the market was weaker than that of last week The mainstream price of common soft foam polyether in Shandong is around 17700-19000 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

The propylene oxide analysts of the business agency believe that at present, the upstream propylene market price fluctuates slightly, the propylene oxide manufacturers have no pressure control, the downstream polyether rises and rises, and the market is stable. It is expected that in the short term, the propylene oxide market will mainly operate at a high level, and more attention should be paid to the market information guidance for the specific trend.

Zinc price trend

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the zinc price rose in a wide range in November, and the zinc market rose. As of November 16, the average price of zinc was 20650.00 yuan / ton, which was 2.63% higher than that of November 1, 20120.00 yuan / ton.

Export data of household appliances

Commodity name: unit of measurement: September 2020 January to September 2020 accumulative period: January to September 2019: 1 to current month% compared with the same period last year

Quantity amount quantity amount quantity amount quantity amount

Household appliances: 34245.5 453.7 239199.4 3246.9 221169.7 2768.2 8.2 17.3

According to the statistics of the General Administration of Customs of China, the export volume of household appliances in September was 342.455 million units, and the total export volume from January to September was 2391.994 million units, with a cumulative increase of 8.2% over the same period of last year, and the export volume and amount increased significantly year on year. The demand for zinc ingot in home appliance industry is rising, and the market of zinc is increasing.

Car production data

According to the statistics of the China Academy of Commerce and industry, in October 2020, the production and sales of automobiles will reach 2.522 million and 2.573 million respectively, with a month on month increase of 0.9% and 0.1% respectively, and a year-on-year increase of 11.0% and 12.5%. Since the second quarter of 2020, the domestic automobile output has been steadily rising, and the domestic automobile industry has recovered. The demand for zinc ingots in the automobile industry is rising, which is good for the zinc market.

Analysis, review and Prospect

According to Bai Jiaxin, an analyst at the business agency, zinc ingots are widely used, which can be divided into several categories: infrastructure, household appliances, automobiles, etc. From the export data of home appliances, it can be seen that the domestic home appliance market is more favorable, the demand for zinc market is rising, and the auto industry market is gradually warming up, which is further favorable to the zinc market. Although the infrastructure construction has declined due to the impact of the epidemic, with the recovery of domestic economy, the infrastructure construction has gradually recovered, and the negative effect on the zinc market demand has weakened. Generally speaking, the recovery of home appliance export and automobile industry stimulated the demand of zinc market, and the upward momentum of zinc market increased. Zinc prices are expected to rise in the future.

1、 Trend analysis

On November 16, the spot copper price was 53705 yuan / ton, which was 3.22% higher than the previous day, 9.53% higher than the beginning of the year, and 14.39% higher than the same period last year. Shanghai copper’s main force rose sharply to 53800 yuan today, and since then it has been operating in a narrow range, closing at 53640 yuan, up 2.80%. Luntong copper’s 3-month contract fluctuated after the opening, and then fluctuated after a sharp rise. The Asian market closed at US $7170.5, up 2.44%.

Copper prices rose sharply today, with RCEP agreement boosting market sentiment at the beginning of the week. However, macroeconomic data in October showed that the domestic economy recovered steadily, domestic terminal market demand performed well, automobile production and sales showed growth for seven consecutive months, investment in real estate development increased, and electricity consumption of the whole society increased year on year in September.

According to the data of CAAC, the auto sales volume in October reached 2.573 million units, up 12.5% year-on-year. As of October, automobile production and sales showed growth for seven consecutive months. Among them, the growth rate of sales volume remained above 10% for six consecutive months. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, from January to September, the investment in real estate development increased by 5.6% year on year, 1% higher than that in the previous eight months, and the real estate boom has rebounded for many months. In addition, the demand for cables, transportation and electronic terminals also recovered significantly.

In addition, the weekly inventory of the previous period continued to drop sharply, with a decrease of more than 10% last week. On November 13, London Metal Exchange (LME) reported the latest inventory of 165200 tons of copper, 1000 tons less than the previous trading day, a decrease of 0.60%.

In view of the above situation, the macro boost, good supply and demand structure, strong demand superimposed on the current low inventory, copper prices may still have a certain upward space in the future.

In November, the domestic epoxy resin market rose sharply. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the liquid resin price in East China is 29500-30000 yuan / ton, and the current liquid resin price has reached the peak value in nearly three years. In terms of factories, in November, most factories closed their offer and did not quote. This week, the prices of major factories were quoted one after another, which was true. Among them, the reference offers of Yangnong Jinhu, Nantong Xingchen and Baling Petrochemical were 29500 yuan / ton, and those of Changchun chemical and Jiangsu Sanmu were listed at 30000 yuan / ton.

Epoxy resin has been going up like crazy. On the one hand, orders from downstream markets are constantly on the one hand, and there is no pressure on factories to ship. On the other hand, under the stimulation of mutual benefit, first of all, epoxy resin stimulates the upstream raw material bisphenol A to pull up, and then the supply of bisphenol A enters a tense situation, which further rises under the shortage of supply, which in turn further stimulates the epoxy resin to continue to catch up. The details are as follows:

On the one hand, the downstream wind power industry of epoxy resin continued to make efforts. It is reported that GWEC predicts that the world’s new wind power installed capacity will reach a record 71.3gw in 2020 (the original record was 63.8 GW in 2015), which is only 6% lower than the forecast at the beginning of the year (before the new crown epidemic). In 2021, the global installed capacity will be further increased to 78gw, because some wind power projects delayed by the epidemic this year will be installed next year.

At the same time, based on the judgment of the “rush to install” trend of China’s market, GWEC’s forecast of the global offshore wind power installation in 2020 is higher than that before the epidemic. In the five years from 2020 to 2024, more than half of the world’s new wind power installed capacity will come from the two major markets of China and the United States, and the cumulative installed capacity of global wind power will exceed 1 tw (1 billion kw) by 2024.

On the other hand, from the cost side analysis, the cost side of raw materials “soaring” is strong. One of the most important raw materials is bisphenol A. The bisphenol a market was first affected by the sharp upward trend of the downstream epoxy resin industry. At the beginning of November, the bisphenol a market rose by nearly 20%. On the first working day of last week’s opening, the factories increased 600-800 yuan / ton one after another, and the mainstream offer of the factory was 14800 yuan / ton, a new high in the year. However, most of the opening factories closed their offers this week, among which Lihua yiweiyuan’s guiding price was 18200 yuan / ton, while in the market, there were few offers from shippers, domestic supply was very tight, and only a small number of large traders still had goods in their hands, and it was heard that today’s small order was 18500 yuan / ton, and there was still room for expansion in the current tight supply.

Another important raw material epichlorohydrin market also showed a rising trend. At present, epichlorohydrin closed at 12600 yuan / T, with no intention of downward adjustment.

From the current point of view, although the gross profit of epoxy resin is rich, the orders of major factories are relatively sufficient. Next month, there are Changchun chemical industry’s 15 day shutdown and maintenance plan from December 10 to 25, Nantong Xingchen’s 10 day annual shutdown maintenance plan in late December, and Kunshan Guodu is expected to temporarily fail to resume production, and the overall output of the whole month will be reduced by nearly 20000 tons There will still be a tight supply situation, there is little possibility that the resin factory will yield profits, the market will still be in short supply, and the price forecast is still likely to rise.

From the perspective of business agencies, the short-term epoxy resin market has no downward expectation under the tense situation of factory supply. The current factory orders are sufficient, and the short-term liquid epoxy resin will run at about 30000 yuan / ton.

According to statistics, the trend of domestic p-xylene ex factory price was temporarily stable this week, with an average price of 4300 yuan / ton at the weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with the price of 4300 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year decrease of 36.76%.

The domestic PX operating rate is about 60%. The operation of Hongrun 600000 ton new unit is stable, Huizhou refining and chemical plant is stable, fuhaichuang plant is on the first line, Pengzhou petrochemical plant is running stably, Yangzi Petrochemical PX unit is running normally, Jinling Petrochemical plant is running smoothly, Qingdao Lidong unit is operating at full load, Qilu Petrochemical plant is running stably The start-up of Urumqi petrochemical plant is about 50%, and Hainan refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. has started a production line. Hengli petrochemical plant is in normal operation, the domestic p-xylene supply is normal, and the domestic p-xylene market price trend is temporarily stable. This week, the operating rate of PX plant in Asia is about 70%, and the supply of PX goods is sufficient in Asia. This week, the price trend of PX external market rose slightly. As of the end of the week, the closing price of PX market in Asia was 517-519 USD / T FOB Korea and 535-537 USD / T CFR China. This week, the trend of PX external price rose. More than 40% of domestic products need to be imported, and the closing price of PX external market went The price trend of domestic PX market is stable temporarily.

The U.S. WTI crude oil futures market rose this week. As of the 12th, the settlement price of the main contract in the US WTI crude oil futures market was at $40.29/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract in Brent crude oil futures market was at $42.40/barrel. The oil price soared on Monday, making the largest one-day increase in nearly five months. The main reason is that Pfizer announced that its new crown vaccine had made a major breakthrough The company says its vaccine can prevent 90 percent of infections. In addition, Saudi Arabia’s energy minister said at the meeting on Monday that if OPEC + reached an agreement, the production reduction agreement may be adjusted. The news also pushed up the oil price, and the international crude oil price trend rose, which was a good support for domestic petrochemical products, and the domestic p-xylene market price trend was temporarily stable.

The price trend of downstream PTA market rose this week. As of the end of the weekend, the price of PTA Market in East China was about 3250-3300 yuan. Recently, PTA downstream orders were OK. PTA enterprises had good production enthusiasm and did not have large-scale maintenance. As of November 12, the operating load of domestic PTA production enterprises was 86.14%, which was at the normal level. Recently, in addition to the long-term shutdown of domestic maintenance devices, the 3.75 million tons / year unit of Dalian Yisheng was shut down at the beginning of November. It is expected to stop for two weeks. The 1 million tons unit of Sichuan energy investment, the 750000 tons of Yadong petrochemical and the 350000 tons of Yangzi Petrochemical began to shut down in the first ten days of November. However, Yizheng Chemical fiber 650000 tons of plant recently restart, Sino Thai chemical plant will also restart. Inventory is still on the high side. On the whole, domestic PTA supply is stable, and the price in the floor market is driven up by crude oil price, but the downstream demand is delayed and affected by overseas order backflow. At present, the domestic textile industry is in general performance, so the upstream PX price trend is mainly stable.

On the whole, the demand of textile industry has not improved significantly, the order performance is unstable, and the terminal demand is general. For upstream Px, on-demand procurement is the main factor, and the price trend of PX market is stable.

Chen Ling, PX analyst of business agency, believes that the recent trend of crude oil price has changed greatly. In addition, the operating rate of downstream textile enterprises is general, PTA market price trend is rising, and domestic PX market supply is normal. It is expected that the PX market price will remain stable next week.

According to the monitoring of business agency, the price trend of domestic anhydrous hydrofluoric acid rose slightly this week. As of the end of the week, the market price of hydrofluoric acid was 8355 yuan / ton, which was 0.06% higher than the price of 8350 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year decrease of 12.97%.

Recently, the domestic hydrofluoric acid price trend has been stable and slightly increased. Up to now, the mainstream price of hydrofluoric acid in various regions of China is 7700-8400 yuan / ton. The domestic hydrofluoric acid trading market is mainly stable, and the negative factors for maintaining low hydrofluoric acid price include the following aspects:

First, the market price of hydrofluoric acid raw material fluorite remained low. As of the end of the week, the domestic fluorite price was 2616.67 yuan / ton. In recent years, the domestic spot supply of fluorite was sufficient, and the on-site shipment was not positive, so the price of fluorite remained low. By the end of the weekend, the mainstream of domestic fluorite negotiations was 2500-2700 yuan / ton. The low price of fluorite in the market was a negative effect on the hydrofluoric acid market, and the domestic hydrofluoric acid market price did not change much.

Second: the domestic refrigerant market is low this week. The sales market of the automobile industry is not good recently. The demand for the refrigerant is still weak. The market is hard to find. The trend of the refrigerant industry is general. The prices of various types of refrigerants continue to be low. Manufacturers are under pressure to ship, and the sales pressure is increasing. The raw material hydrofluoric acid maintains a weak stability, the support force is general, and the refrigerant export volume is expected The output of downstream air conditioning is low, and the demand is scarce. The off-season effect of after-sales market continues, and the price reduction shipment is looking for good. On the whole, the refrigerant market is hard to find good factors, the price continues to be low or will become normal, and the transaction center of gravity remains low. At present, the load of refrigerant R22 manufacturers is not high, the inventory is in a reasonable range, and the market price remains at a low level. However, the downstream receiving capacity is limited, and there is a lot of wait-and-see mood. The actual transaction center of gravity is low. Some traders are looking for positive shipment, and the quotation is slightly lower than the manufacturer’s ex factory price. There is a phenomenon of cost inversion. The mainstream of on-site negotiation is 12500-15000 yuan / ton of water Ping. The domestic R134a market trend is stable temporarily, but the automobile market industry continues to be depressed, and the transaction atmosphere is light. There are plenty of goods in the market, and there are new production capacity coming into the market in the future market. The competition is fierce. The supply side gradually forms a negative situation. The price is depressed and the downstream demand is not improved. The price trend of hydrofluoric acid market remains low.

Third, the domestic hydrofluoric acid spot supply is normal, the hydrofluoric acid plant is running stably, and the hydrofluoric acid market price remains low. So far, the mainstream hydrofluoric acid negotiation in the southern region is 7700-8200 yuan / ton, and the hydrofluoric acid price in the northern market is 7700-8500 yuan / ton. Recently, the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid market has not changed a lot. Some manufacturers report that hydrofluoric acid exists in the cracks, most of them have serious losses, and the stock market is still poor.

On the whole, affected by various negative factors, the domestic hydrofluoric acid market price remains low. In addition, the demand for downstream refrigerant industry has not improved significantly, the upstream fluorite price remains low, and the downstream refrigerant product price is not improved. Chen Ling, an analyst of hydrofluoric acid in the business agency, believes that the market price of hydrofluoric acid may fluctuate.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average ex factory price of ammonium sulfate in China on November 9 was 568 yuan / ton, while that on November 13 was 560 yuan / ton. The price fell by 1.47% this week.

2、 Market analysis

The price of ammonium sulfate fell slightly this week. Coking grade ammonium sulfate slightly adjusted, internal grade ammonium sulfate Market is strong. By the end of the week, the mainstream ex factory quotations of ammonium sulfate in Henan Province were 520-580 yuan / ton, 500-550 yuan / ton in Hebei Province, 540-570 yuan / ton in Shandong Province, 460-500 yuan / ton in Shanxi Province and 520-630 yuan / ton in Northeast China.

This week, the downstream compound fertilizer market is stable and small. Compound fertilizer raw material high-level operation, cost support is favorable, the main early orders. At present, the demand for ammonium sulfate is weak and there is no obvious improvement. The market is mainly a wait-and-see attitude.

3、 Future forecast

Business Club ammonium sulfate analysts believe that the current coking grade ammonium sulfate operating rate is high, the downstream demand is limited, the market is not warm. The demand of ammonium sulfate in Hexi is stable, and the downstream is mainly purchased on demand. It is expected that the coking grade ammonium sulfate will run weakly and stably in the short term, and the internal grade ammonium sulfate will mainly vibrate in the range.

1、 Domestic sodium pyrosulfite price trend chart

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the domestic sodium metabisulfite price remained stable this week, with an average price of 1750.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 1750.00 yuan / ton at the weekend, with a rise and fall range of 0.

2、 Market analysis

In November, affected by the fall of upstream raw material cost, some manufacturers slightly reduced the ex factory price of sodium metabisulfite, while the domestic market price of sodium metabisulfite fell slightly. This week, the overall market performance of sodium metabisulfite market was stable. The market price range of industrial grade sodium pyrosulfite was 1650-1800 yuan / ton, and most prices were concentrated in 1700-1750 yuan / ton. The production of the enterprise is stable, and the inventory is maintained at about 30%. The enterprise mainly completes the orders of old customers, but the increase of new orders is limited. (the above prices all refer to the external quotation of domestic mainstream enterprises, and some unreported enterprises are not included in the scope temporarily. The prices are for reference only and have nothing to do with the final pricing of manufacturers. Please contact all manufacturers for details.).

Since November, the price of domestic soda ash has been reduced by 0.89%, the price of sulfur has increased by 1.06%, the overall high level of raw material cost of sodium metabisulfite has been reduced slightly, the price of upstream products has fallen down, and the market price of sodium pyrosulfite has been adjusted with a small margin of cost.

3、 Future forecast

Business agency analysts believe that, affected by cost factors, the domestic sodium metabisulfite market price will continue to move steadily after a small decline. In the short term, with the support of demand, the price of sodium metabisulfite will continue to move forward steadily.

1、 Price trend

According to commodity data monitoring, isopropanol prices rose this week. The average price of isopropanol in China was 8133.33 yuan / ton at the end of last week and 8600 yuan / ton this weekend. The price of isopropanol increased by 5.74% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

Chart: comparison of acetone and isopropanol price trend from August to November

Domestic isopropanol prices rose this week. Isopropanol closed sharply, the international market of isopropanol in Europe was stable. The price of acetone in the domestic market rose sharply, followed by isopropanol. Up to now, the negotiation range of isopropanol in Shandong Province is about 8300-8500 yuan / ton, and that of Jiangsu Province is 8500-8800 yuan / ton. Zhejiang isopropanol negotiation range is around 8500 yuan / ton. In terms of demand, although the export advantage has weakened, the current export situation is relatively stable. Domestic market demand is general, many manufacturers do not quote, prices return to high, downstream users mainly wait and see, who use who take.

In terms of raw materials, according to the monitoring of bulk commodity data, acetone prices rose this week. At the end of last week, the average price of acetone in China was 7100 yuan / ton, while that of this weekend was 7700 yuan / ton. During the week, the price was increased by 8.45%. At present, the acetone market has a big rise, which strongly supports isopropanol, and the price of isopropanol will rise accordingly.

In terms of propylene, the market price of propylene in Shandong increased slightly this week. At present, the market turnover is between 6750-7200 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 6850 yuan / ton. At present, the inventory of manufacturers is controllable, and the shipment situation is still ideal. It has strong support for isopropanol.

3、 Future forecast

According to isopropanol analysts of the chemical branch of business club, the market price of raw material acetone rose sharply, the market price of propylene increased slightly, the cost support was strong, and the price of isopropanol was increased. In terms of demand, although the export advantage has weakened, the current export situation is relatively stable. Domestic market demand is general, many manufacturers do not offer. It is expected that in the short term, isopropanol prices will mainly run at a high level, and follow-up attention will be paid to the changes in the news.

1、 Price trend

According to the data from the business club’s bulk list, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price fell slightly this week and then recovered and stabilized, with 6868 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, 6992 yuan / ton at the weekend, and 6844 yuan / ton on Tuesday and Wednesday, with a weekly increase of 0.34% and a weekly amplitude of 0.70%.

2、 Analysis and comment

According to the price chart of business agency, propylene price remained stable in the first half of October and plummeted by more than 10% in the second half. Since November 1, the price has been adjusted back. Since November 1, the price has risen by 200-250 yuan / ton. After a short period of stabilization, the price dropped slightly by about 100 yuan / ton on August 9 and then stabilized again. On the 12th, it rose 50 yuan / ton and then stabilized again. The market transaction is between 6750 yuan / ton and 7200 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 6850 yuan / ton. At present, the inventory of manufacturers is controllable, and the shipment situation is still ideal.

On November 12, crude oil prices declined slightly, but the range was not large, and the impact on propylene was limited.

This week, PP spot price rose slightly over the weekend, with a weekly increase of 0.20%. The futures market is relatively ideal, which has a slightly positive impact on propylene.

Acrylic acid market continued to rise this week, the weekly increase has reached 5.48%, slightly favorable impact on propylene.

This week, the propylene oxide market rose sharply, with a weekly increase of 9.82%, which made up for the impact of the sharp decline in the earlier period, which had a more obvious positive effect on propylene.

Epichlorohydrin also had a significant upward trend this week, with a weekly increase of 9.20% and a weekly amplitude of 11.28%, which had a significant positive impact on propylene.

This week, domestic n-butanol price continued to rise and then stabilized, with a weekly increase of 3.87%, which had a small positive impact on propylene.

Octanol market in the second half of this week significantly increased, up as high as 7.13%, has a positive impact on propylene.

The isopropanol market rose steadily this week, with a weekly increase of 4.45%, which also had a positive impact on propylene.

This week, phenol in East China showed a ladder upward trend, with a weekly increase of 12.11%, which had a more obvious effect on propylene.

This week, East China acetone also showed a ladder like upward trend, with a weekly increase of 6.94%, which also had a more obvious effect on propylene.

3、 Future forecast

The propylene analysts of the chemical branch of the business society believe that: on the whole, the inventory of propylene manufacturers is controllable, the crude oil price is slightly downward, and the downstream market is relatively ideal, but mainly wait and see, so it is expected that the propylene price will start to stabilize in the near future.