1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business agency, on the 19th, the nickel price dropped slightly. The spot nickel price was 118400 yuan / ton, down 0.17% from the previous trading day, 4.1% higher than the beginning of the year, and 4.16% lower than the same period last year. Shanghai nickel’s main market opened at 116380 yuan. After the opening, the price first suppressed and then rose, closing at 116470 yuan, up 0.16%. LME3 nickel closed at US $15765, up 0.06%.

2、 Market analysis

On the supply side, domestic nickel ore was tight, and nickel sulfate consumption improved. In October, the sales of new energy vehicles increased by 104.5% year-on-year, and the supply of stainless steel was sufficient. Indonesia’s ferronickel construction step by step, there will be an increase in supply in the future. Nickel iron supply has a loose trend, stainless steel production remains high, consumption performance is flat, forming upward pressure on prices. In the first nine months of this year, the global nickel market oversupplied by 50000 tons, while the global demand decreased by 169 thousand tons compared with the same period last year. The market is oversupply and nickel price is up against resistance.

3、 Future prospects

Aftermarket forecast: nickel ore supply is still tight, stainless steel prices fell sharply, short-term nickel prices are expected to maintain a weak shock operation.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business agency, on November 19, the average price of domestic LNG was 3416.67 yuan / ton, down 2.66% from the previous day, 9.29% from the beginning of the month, 14.27% month on month, and 22.93% lower than the same period last year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The domestic LNG market entered a downward trend in November, showing a continuous downward trend since the beginning of the month. On the 19th, it fell by 2.66%, and the price in many places was about 50-150 yuan. Domestic LNG opened a downward channel. This round of decline is mainly due to the rapid price rise in the early stage, insufficient follow-up on the demand side, and the emergence of downstream resistance psychology. Some end users prefer alternative energy sources, and their enthusiasm for LNG procurement has decreased. Many liquid plants are not able to deliver goods smoothly, and the price continues to fall. In the middle and north of China, the overall heating and raw gas auction are not expected to be favorable. At the same time, due to the emergency response to heavy polluted weather in some areas such as Hebei and Henan, industrial users have reduced production and the demand has continued to decline. In addition, cold air strikes, rain and snow weather affect logistics, and manufacturers’ shipment may continue to be under pressure. It is expected that the domestic LNG market will be weak.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, as of November 19, the price dropped significantly compared with that of the previous trading day. The average price in Inner Mongolia was around 3360 yuan / ton, falling by 50-230 yuan / ton. The average price in Shaanxi was around 3500 yuan / ton, falling by 50-160 yuan / ton. The average price in Shanxi was around 3820 yuan / ton, falling by 50-150 yuan / ton. In Xinjiang, the average price was around 3380 yuan / ton, down 100 yuan / ton In Ningxia, the average price was around 3440 yuan / ton, down about 100 yuan / ton, while in Sichuan, the average price was around 3550 yuan / ton.

Regional specification quotation (yuan / ton) date

Inner Mongolia LNG 3200-3600 November 19

Shaanxi LNG 3400-3600 November 19

Xinjiang LNG 2900-3600 November 19

Ningxia LNG 3350-3420 November 19

November 19-3500 natural gas in Shanxi

Sichuan LNG 3480-4200 November 19

After the adjustment of methanol price, the price of methanol increased by about 50 yuan / day, and some domestic enterprises reduced the price of methanol. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of methanol producers in Shandong was 1882 yuan / ton on November 1 and 2115 yuan / ton on November 19 in Shandong. The price cycle increased by 12.35%, and the price rose by 9.59% month on month and 1.78% year on year. Affected by the weather in some areas, there is no quotation for shutdown and maintenance of the device. At present, the inventory of production enterprises is not high, and the attitude of the industry is optimistic. At present, the profits of traders are fair, and the methanol analysts of the business society predict that the domestic methanol market will fluctuate in the short term.

Urea, in the late November, the market price of urea in Shandong Province may rise slightly. Urea analysts of the business club believe that the current agricultural demand has followed up, and the downstream industry is still enthusiastic about urea procurement, and the industrial demand is to be purchased on demand. It is expected that the short-term urea market will fluctuate and rise slightly.

Due to the high price of liquid chlorine as raw material, the cost of dichloromethane production enterprises is high. In addition, the lower rigid demand is flat, the enterprise starts to decline, the market supply is reduced, and a small number of downstream banks are replenished on demand. The market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. At present, the price of dichloromethane in Shandong is about 3070-3170 yuan / ton, that of Jiangsu Liwen is about 3700 yuan / ton, and that of Jiangxi Liwen is about 3050 yuan / ton.

Ethylene, current crude oil: OPEC members tend to postpone the plan to increase daily crude oil production in January, and the international oil price rose to the highest level since early September on Wednesday. Therefore, business agency data analysts predict that the external price of ethylene will mainly rise next.

3、 Future forecast

LNG analysts from the business club believe that: at present, the favorable expectations are insufficient, many places are affected by heavy pollution weather emergency response and other factors, the industrial demand continues to decline, in addition to the cold air attack, rain and snow weather affecting logistics, manufacturers’ shipment may continue to be under pressure, and the domestic LNG market is expected to run weakly.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic cocoon and silk market fluctuated slightly in November. As of November 18, the average price of raw silk market was 303500 yuan / ton, up 2.02% compared with the beginning of the month, down 25.34% year on year; the average price of dried cocoon market was 92000 yuan / ton, 1.71% higher than that at the beginning of the month, and 30.17% lower than that at the beginning of the month. At present, the price of dried cocoon and raw silk in Guangxi is 92000 yuan / ton and 302000 yuan / ton respectively.

Affected by the sharp reduction of cocoon production in Guangxi this autumn, the price of cocoon has reached a new high since the epidemic. The purchase price of the fourth batch of cocoons is generally around 42-45 yuan / kg, the wool discount is 8.2-8.5, and the cocoon cost is 340000-350000 yuan. The quality of the fifth batch of cocoons is average, and the purchase price is lower than that of the previous batch. Due to the high cost of fresh cocoons and cocoons in Guangxi and other places, some factories are reluctant to sell the products to be produced due to the gradual delivery of previous batch orders. At present, high-quality raw silk is better than low-grade raw silk. There is a gap in raw materials of silk mills. The expectation of stopping production and reducing production has been enhanced, and the willingness to support prices is obvious.

In terms of the current silkworm chrysalis market and price, the loading price of domestic fresh pupae in Guangxi factories is generally around 13000-14000 yuan / ton, and that of grade B is 12000-13000 yuan / ton, and that of grade C is 11000-12000 yuan / ton. The middle price of basic loading is about 12500-13500 yuan / ton. Dry and wet pupae a 5000 – 6000 yuan / ton, B 4500 yuan / ton. Dry silkworm pupa feed 7200-7500 yuan / ton. Thailand’s receiving price is about 2350 US dollars / ton, Vietnam’s 20000 Dong / kg, and South Korea’s dry and wet pupae are about 1400 US dollars / ton.

With the end of this year’s reeling of fresh cocoons, the volume of goods decreased. In Northeast China, Shenyang market is the main market to prepare goods. The Spring Festival inventory in Shandong market has begun. The RMB exchange rate has been stable in recent years, and there is a tendency to stabilize after the rise of sea transportation price. The foreign Southeast Asian market starts to prepare goods on New Year’s Day, which is expected to have a positive impact on exports.

Since September, double 11 and Christmas orders, the traditional textile and clothing orders are still dense in the first and middle of October. Under the support of the “silver 10″ peak season, textile enterprises arranged orders more to the end of November, and some enterprises arranged orders to December. Textile enterprises maintained a high load of about 70% and accelerated to catch up with orders. This year’s double 11 e-commerce platforms made another good performance, showing the steady release of restorative consumption, the expected improvement of domestic consumption cycle and the rise of rigid consumption demand. Although the textile industry entered the traditional off-season in November, according to the information of China Textile City, most of the fabric markets are “market orders”. The characteristics of market goods are that they come fast and go quickly, and the duration is not long. With the approach of Christmas and Spring Festival, under the stimulation of holiday orders, the market cooling rate is limited in the short term.

The export market has performed well and has achieved positive growth for five consecutive months. From the textile and clothing export situation in October, we can see that China’s export of masks, protective clothing and other types of textiles still maintained a rapid growth. According to the latest data of the General Administration of customs, in October 2020, the export of textile and clothing reached US $24.84 billion, an increase of 10.7%, of which the export of textiles was US $11.66 billion, an increase of 15.7%, and that of clothing was US $13.18 billion, an increase of 6.6%. From January to October, textile and clothing exports totaled 240.62 billion US dollars, an increase of 9.5%, of which textile exports were 129.61 billion US dollars, an increase of 31.9%, and clothing exports were 111.01 billion US dollars, a decrease of 8.6%.

According to business agency analysts, foreign trade orders in November are expected to continue to increase compared with the previous month, demand from East Asia, West Asia, the Middle East, Africa and the Americas will continue to recover, and customer orders from European countries will also continue to be issued. In addition, with the advent of winter, frequent outbreaks of influenza and repeated outbreaks, the export of masks, protective clothing and other types of textiles still maintained a rapid growth, and is expected to drive the overall textile and clothing to continue to improve on a year-on-year basis. At the same time, RCEP signing may also benefit China’s textile and clothing exports, which will also have a positive impact on Cocoon and silk exports. On the domestic side, although the textile industry has entered the traditional off-season, products such as silk quilt have ushered in the peak sales season. The double-10-1 has just ended, and there will also be consumption such as double-12, new year’s day, Spring Festival and seasonal consumption. Overall, the cocoon silk market will remain strong shocks.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, as of November 18, the average ex factory price of domestic butanone market was 6833 yuan / ton, which was increased by 433 yuan / ton or 4.77% compared with the price on November 1.

Low inventory support, butanone market rose steadily

In November, the domestic butanone market as a whole entered a benign conduction. On the 2nd and 3rd, the market quotation of butanone rose slightly, with reference to 200-300 yuan / ton. As of November 18, the average ex factory price of domestic butanone market was 6833 yuan / ton, which was increased by 433 yuan / ton or 6.77% compared with the price on November 1.

Upstream, this week’s LPG market fell. On November 17, the civil market of liquefied gas in Northeast China fell as a whole, with a light trading atmosphere. Downstream market enthusiasm is not high, multi-dimensional rigid demand replenishment, good market is limited. The civil market of liquefied gas in Shandong Province rose and fell with each other, but the range was not large, mostly about 20-50 yuan / ton. The atmosphere of market transaction was fair, and the current mainstream transaction price was about 3100-3120 yuan / ton. The general market for liquefied gas continued to decline in North China. At present, the terminal consumption is general, downstream market entry is cautious, mainly wait-and-see.

Internationally, on November 17, the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market prices rose slightly, with the settlement price of main contracts at $41.65/barrel, up $0.31. Brent crude oil futures market prices fell slightly, with the settlement price of main contracts at $43.75/barrel, down $0.07. Oil prices remained mainly stable on Monday with little fluctuation. The market was worried that the blockade measures taken to curb the rebound of the epidemic may depress fuel demand, offsetting the positive effects of vaccine expectation and OPEC + production reduction.

New single support poor butanone finishing

At present, the overall stock of butanone market is on the low side, but there are not many new orders and the demand is general. Therefore, the butanone Data Engineer of the business agency believes that it is slightly difficult for the domestic butanone market to continue to go higher in the short term, and the main task is to stabilize the operation, and more attention should be paid to raw materials and demand changes in the specific trend.

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the hydrogen peroxide market began to enter the downward channel in November after experiencing the golden September and silver October, and has dropped by more than 200 yuan / ton from the highest price of 1450 yuan / ton in October, and the market has recovered slightly this week. As of November 18, the price of hydrogen peroxide has dropped to 1290 yuan / ton, down 11.03% from the beginning of November and 0.52% higher than that of last week.

According to the monthly rise and fall chart of hydrogen peroxide from January 2019 to October 2020, it can be seen that the increase of hydrogen peroxide in 2019 is mainly concentrated in the first half of the year, and the hydrogen peroxide market drops more in the second half of the year. The price of hydrogen peroxide falls mainly from November to December, with a decrease of more than 10%.

In the first half of 2020, hydrogen peroxide is mainly down, with little rise. In the second half of 2020, the price of hydrogen peroxide rises mainly in September and October. In October, hydrogen peroxide rises by more than 35%, which is the largest increase at present. In November, the market of hydrogen peroxide has been falling for half a month, with a drop of more than 11%.

Hydrogen peroxide stops falling and recovers

This week, the terminal caprolactam market oscillation rose, mainly due to the raw material pure benzene rise, the cost is favorable support, the supply of goods is relatively tight, good increase, caprolactam price rose 1.69%. Under the support of caprolactam market, hydrogen peroxide ended the continuous decline of the market, the market recovered, and the price rose steadily.

In terms of terminal paper, after the end of the first week of November, manufacturers have adjusted the price of corrugated base paper. Nine dragon paper’s Dongguan, Taicang, Tianjin, Chongqing and other bases have increased by 30-100 yuan / ton, and the corrugated base paper price has increased by more than 2%. The rise in the paper market has brought confidence to hydrogen peroxide manufacturers. In addition, hydrogen peroxide has dropped by more than 11% before. Therefore, the terminal market is heating up and manufacturers are eager to try. The hydrogen peroxide market has a rising trend.

Li Bing, hydrogen peroxide analyst of business agency, believes that: the prices of terminal paper industry and caprolactam have risen one after another, and the rigid demand supports the future market of hydrogen peroxide is expected to usher in rising sentiment.

According to the price monitoring of business agencies, the domestic PTA spot market has rebounded slightly recently. As of November 18, the average price of domestic PTA spot market was 3256 yuan / ton, up 4.41% compared with November 9, and down 32.04% year-on-year. In the futures market, PTA main futures (2101) closed up on November 18 and closed at 3416, up 30% or 0.89% compared with the previous trading day. Strong crude oil and low PTA prices, speculative bottom mentality to support the current price.

Recent domestic PTA unit: 10000 tons / year

Change of enterprise name capacity device

Yangzi Petrochemical 35 will start maintenance in the afternoon of November 3, 2020, and the restart time is to be determined

Yadong Petrochemical 70 overhaul from November 13 to November 28, 2020

Chuanneng chemical 100, November 17, 2020, overhaul for 5 days

Zhongtai Petrochemical 120 will start maintenance for 2 months on September 30, 2020

Hanbang Petrochemical 220 will reduce the load to 60-70% on November 13, 2020, and return to normal on November 14, 2020.

In terms of units, in November, the domestic PTA plant maintenance plan was significantly reduced. At the beginning of the month, Yangzi Petrochemical started to repair 350000 tons, and the restart time is to be determined; Yadong Petrochemical Co., Ltd. of 700000 tons started maintenance for 15 days on the 13th; Hanbang Petrochemical Co., Ltd. of 2.2 million tons reduced the load to 60-70% on the 13th and returned to normal on the 14th. Sichuan Energy Investment Co., Ltd. started maintenance for about 5 days on November 17. The operating load of PTA industry is still maintained at a high level of 86%, and the cumulative stock is expected to increase. At present, the social inventory of PTA is nearly 4 million tons, which has increased by 2.6 million tons compared with the same period last year.

The supply and demand side is not good. Some downstream polyester factories promote sales, and the overall production and sales are not booming. The average production and sales of mainstream large factories are 100% – 150%, and some better factories are 170%. The overall inventory is concentrated in 24-36 days. In terms of price, the price of polyester filament factory is stable for the time being, and polyester POY (150D / 48F) of mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang Province is quoted at 5100-5350 yuan / ton. In terms of the starting rate, the comprehensive starting rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms dropped slightly to about 91%.

Xia Ting, an analyst at the business agency, believes that the current high level of crude oil shocks, PTA accumulates inventory, the market mentality is cautious, and the overall demand is tepid. It is expected that PTA market will fall back in the future.

1、 Price trend of lithium hydroxide

(Figure: P value curve of lithium hydroxide products)

2、 Market analysis

Recently, the market of lithium hydroxide keeps stable. As of November 17, the average price of domestic industrial grade lithium hydroxide enterprises was 54666.67 yuan / ton, which was the same as last Tuesday (November 10), and fell by 1.80% year-on-year in a half year cycle, according to the data of the business club’s bulk list. In recent years, there are sporadic transactions in the lithium hydroxide Market, the demand is temporarily stable, the overall market is stable, and the price has no obvious fluctuation. At present, the external quotation of industrial grade lithium hydroxide of Shanghai Yulun industry is 53000 yuan / ton, and that of Zigong tongfarong industrial is 53000 yuan / ton. The specific transaction price is discussed in a single way.

Production data of lithium hydroxide: in October 2020, the output of lithium hydroxide of major manufacturers in China was around 9100 tons, with a month on month increase of 4.24% and a year-on-year increase of 65.45%.

Upstream lithium carbonate, lithium carbonate prices showed upward, short-term continued positive. According to the data of the business agency, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China on November 16 was 40000 yuan / ton, which was 1.27% higher than that at the beginning of the month (the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China on November 1 was 39500 yuan / ton). On November 16, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 44600 yuan / ton, which was 0.9% higher than that at the beginning of the month (the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China on November 1 was 44200 yuan / ton).

3、 Future forecast

Lithium hydroxide analysts from the business club believe that the price of lithium carbonate in the upstream is going up in the near future, the cost side support is strengthened, the downstream demand is temporarily stable, and the transaction is limited. It is expected that the industrial grade lithium hydroxide Market will be stable in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the market information guidance.

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, as of November 17, the average ex factory price of domestic n-butanol was 7650 yuan / ton. Compared with November 13, the average price of domestic n-butanol increased by 500 yuan / ton, or 6.99%; compared with November 1, the average price of domestic n-butanol increased by 970 yuan / ton, or 16.20%.

The market of n-butanol rose by 16.2% in half a month

At the beginning of November, the domestic market of n-butanol remained weak. During this period, some factories slightly reduced the ex factory quotation of n-butanol. On the 8th, the mainstream quotation of n-butanol market was around 6500-6600 yuan / ton. Since September 9, butyl alcohol downstream users have entered the market to replenish. The spot supply of n-butanol is tight, and the available supply sources are reduced. The quotation of n-butanol factory began to rise, with an increase range of 200-400 yuan / ton. Then the market entered a strong upward channel, with daily increases of 100-200 yuan / ton. On the 16th and 17th, the market price of n-butanol increased sharply again, by 400-500 yuan / ton. The ex factory price of n-butanol in Luxi Chemical Co., Ltd. is 7650 yuan / ton, which is 1150 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the month. The ex factory price of Shandong lihuayi n-butanol refers to 7500 yuan / T, which is 950 yuan / T higher than that at the beginning of the month. The ex factory quotation of n-butanol in North China of Wanhua chemical is 7800 yuan / ton, which is 1100 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the month.

At present, as of the 9th, the average ex factory price of domestic n-butanol was 6883.33 yuan / ton, up 333 yuan / T, or 5.09%, compared with November 6, and 300 yuan / ton, or 4.56%, compared with November 1. As of the 17th, the average ex factory price of domestic n-butanol was 7650 yuan / ton, up 500 yuan / ton or 6.99% compared with November 13, and 970 yuan / ton, or 16.20%, compared with November 1.

On the upstream side, since November 1, the price of upstream propylene market has been reversed. Since November, it has risen 200-250 yuan / ton. After a short period of stabilization, it dropped slightly by about 100 yuan / ton on August 8 and 9 and then stabilized again. On the 12th, it rose 50 yuan / ton again. Then, on the 16th and 17th, today’s price was slightly up and down. At present, the market transaction is between 6830 yuan / ton and 7200 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 6850 yuan / ton. At present, the inventory of manufacturers is controllable, and the shipment situation is still ideal.

Short term supply is still tight, n-butanol market overall better

At present, the domestic n-butanol market is in short supply, and most of the transactions are small and medium-sized orders. The shipment in various regions is stable and the market mentality is good. It is expected that the domestic n-butanol market will continue to be good in the short term and run at a high level.

1、 Acrylic acid price trend

(Figure: P value curve of acrylic acid products)

2、 Market analysis

The market of acrylic acid is rising recently. As of November 17, the average price of acrylic acid quoted in East China was 7933.33 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with the previous trading day, increased by 8.68% compared with last Monday (November 9) and decreased by 25.16% compared with October 17, according to the data of the bulk list of business agencies. The downstream inquiry was active, the purchasing enthusiasm was fair, the trading volume was increased, and the price of acrylic acid market stabilized after rising.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the price of acrylic acid of some enterprises in recent years (for reference only, the actual transaction price is mainly negotiated)

Enterprise market price specification date

Jinan aochen Chemical Co., Ltd. 7800 yuan / T, line standard: ordinary acid; grade: superior product: November 16, 2020

Jinan aochen Chemical Co., Ltd. is 9500 yuan / T refined acid with 99.7% content on November 16, 2020

Jinan Mingwei Chemical Co., Ltd. 7400 yuan / T, line standard: common acid; grade: superior product: November 16, 2020

Aite (Shandong) new material Co., Ltd. is 7400 yuan / T. the industry standard is: common acid; the grade is superior product; November 14, 2020

Upstream propylene, on November 17, the market price of propylene in Shandong was almost stable. According to the price chart of business agency, propylene price remained stable in the first half of October and plummeted by more than 10% in the second half. Since November 1, the price has been adjusted back. Since November 1, the price has risen by 200-250 yuan / ton. After a short period of stabilization, the price dropped slightly by about 100 yuan / ton on August 9 and then stabilized again. On the 12th, it rose 50 yuan / ton again and stabilized again. Today, it continues to be stable, with individual enterprises’ prices rising slightly. At present, the market turnover is between 6830 yuan / ton and 7200 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 6850 yuan / ton. At present, the inventory of manufacturers is controllable, and the shipment situation is still ideal.

3、 Future forecast

The acrylic acid analysts of the business agency believe that the price of raw material propylene is temporarily stable, the cost support is acceptable, and the downstream inquiry and purchase are increasing. It is expected that the acrylic acid market will be mainly stable in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the market information guidance.

Price trend of 441 silicon

On November 17, the price of silicon metal (441) rose slightly. According to the data of the business agency, on November 17, the average market price of domestic silicon metal (441) was 12858.33 yuan / ton, an increase of 4.40% compared with the average market price of 11650 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (11.1); compared with the average market price of 10491.67 yuan / ton in the valley value (7.1), the increase was 22.56%; compared with the average market price at the beginning of the year (1.1), the average price was 11833.33 yuan / ton, a decrease of 8.66%.

On the 17th, the prices of 441 silicon in different regions were as follows:

The price range of silicon metal in Fujian is 12300-12500 yuan / ton, that of Sichuan is 12600-12700 yuan / ton, that of Kunming is 12600-12700 yuan / ton, that of Shanghai is 13500-13700 yuan / ton, that of Tianjin port is 12900-13100 yuan / ton, and that of Huangpu port is 12800-12900 yuan / ton 。