At the beginning of this week, the morning market offer was firm, followed by 11:00, the sentiment of shippers increased, and the focus began to decline. On the one hand, the import sources have arrived one after another, with a high concentration of sources; on the other hand, just in the settlement period of the contract, the market’s shipping sentiment has increased, and the overall offer is around 9000 yuan / ton; in terms of the downstream delivery, it is at 8800 yuan / ton, and the actual order situation needs to be followed up. However, as the afternoon closed, the willingness of large holders to ship goods was not strong. After the market fell, the market rebounded slightly, and the offer returned to more than 9000-9200 yuan / T. the actual order situation needs to be paid attention to.

As of the end of the previous trading day, the offers of acetone in various markets across the country were as follows:

Region, price, range

East China 9100 – 300

In Shandong Province, 9500

Around Yanshan Mountain

South China 9600 – 200

Price trend of acetone market in East China

According to the price monitoring of business agency, on November 23, 2020, there were 22 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity price rise and fall in the chemical industry sector on November 23, 2020, among which there were 4 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 4.3% of the total number of commodities monitored in this plate; the top three commodities were calcium carbide (8.42%), aniline (6.80%) and ethylene glycol (6.42%). There were 12 kinds of commodities that declined on a month on month basis, with styrene (- 3.93%), TDI (- 3.57%) and bisphenol A (- 1.40%). The average rise and fall was 0.46%.

On November 23, the chemical index was 865 points, up 6 points compared with yesterday, 14.86% lower than 1016 points (2012-03-13), and 44.65% higher than 598 points, the lowest point on April 8, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

When the market opened in the morning, a small number of traders offered and the price was high at 6400-6500 yuan / ton, and there were few sources of goods in hand. However, several large traders failed to offer their prices in the morning. The overall market showed a warming trend in the morning. In the afternoon, some downstream inquiries made profits for the profit holders to ship goods, but the focus was on the high side. Generally speaking, the mentality of the shipholders was good, and the situation of excessive profit concession shipment under cost pressure was relatively high Less, downstream just need to follow up. The overall cost is 6300-6400 yuan / ton.

The downstream bisphenol a market as a whole is weak. Today’s market offer is 18200-18300 yuan / ton, while the terminal offer is 18000 yuan / ton. Although liquid resin is mainly produced by order, it still has little interest in making profits in the case of weak dual raw materials. The overall reference of liquid resin Market is still at 29500-29800 yuan / T.

The quotations of phenol in various markets in China yesterday were as follows:

Regional price rise and fall

6300-6350 + 100-150 in East China

Shandong Province 6900 0

Offer suspended in the area around Yanshan

6500 100 in South China

Trend chart of phenol average price in national market

According to the price monitoring of business agency, on November 23, 2020, there were 22 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity price rise and fall in the chemical industry sector on November 23, 2020, among which there were 4 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 4.3% of the total number of commodities monitored in this plate; the top three commodities were calcium carbide (8.42%), aniline (6.80%) and ethylene glycol (6.42%). There were 12 kinds of commodities that declined on a month on month basis, with styrene (- 3.93%), TDI (- 3.57%) and bisphenol A (- 1.40%). The average rise and fall was 0.46%.

On November 23, the chemical index was 865 points, up 6 points compared with yesterday, 14.86% lower than 1016 points (2012-03-13), and 44.65% higher than 598 points, the lowest point on April 8, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

According to the data of business agency, as of November 20, the average price of domestic fuel oil 180CST was 3637.50 yuan / ton (including tax), a slight increase of 1.39% compared with the beginning of the week.

On November 20, the fuel oil commodity index was 73.67, up 1.01 points compared with yesterday, 36.44% lower than 115.91 points (October 17, 2018), and 59.87% higher than 46.08 points, the lowest point on August 15, 2016. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

According to the business agency, as of November 20, the self raised low sulfur price of 180 CST fuel oil in Zhoushan, 3700 yuan / ton in 120 CST, 3750 yuan / ton in Shanghai and 3850 yuan / ton in 120 CST.

International crude oil prices rose sharply this week, supporting fuel oil prices. WTI crude oil closed at $41.90/barrel on the 20th, up 4.41% from $40.13/barrel at the beginning of the week, according to business agency monitoring.

Singapore’s fuel oil inventory decreased from the previous week, forming a certain support for fuel oil. It is understood that as of November 18, Singapore’s inventory of residual fuel oil, including fuel oil and low sulfur waxy residual oil, decreased by 1044000 barrels to 22.02million barrels, a nine week low; light distillate stocks including naphtha, gasoline and reformate oil decreased by 918000 barrels to 12.434 million barrels, a three-week low; and medium distillate stocks decreased by 492000 barrels to 16.093 million barrels, a two-week low low point.

Aftermarket forecast: the energy analysts of the business agency believe that the fuel oil 180CST raw material cost increases due to the seasonal impact, which forms a certain support for the fuel oil market. Overall, it is expected that the fuel oil 180CST market will be stable and upward in the short term.

1、 Price data

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, the price of domestic refiners’ petroleum coke products dropped slightly. At the beginning of the week, the average price of petroleum coke in Shandong market was 1684.00 yuan / ton, and the average price of petroleum coke at weekend was 1653.50 yuan / ton, with the price falling by 1.81% and increasing by 61.16% compared with last year. On November 20, the commodity index of petroleum coke was 128.61, down 1.2 points compared with yesterday, 17.34% lower than 155.59 points (2018-01-25), and 92.27% higher than 66.89 points, the lowest point on March 28, 2016. (Note: period refers to 2012-09-30 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The decline in the price of petroleum coke is mainly due to increased supply. The supply of low sulfur coke is less, the demand is stable and the price is rising. Compared with medium and high sulfur coke, the operating rate of coking unit increased, the supply increased, the downstream demand was general, and the price of medium and high sulfur coke decreased.

Upstream: the overseas epidemic situation is still serious, and the international crude oil market demand is not good; however, there are also good news that OPEC will prolong the production reduction, the US shale oil production will decrease, and the development of new crown vaccine will accelerate. The international crude oil price fluctuates upward, with WTI crude oil price increasing by 5.71% and Brent crude oil price increasing by 5.10% weekly.

Downstream: affected by environmental factors in heating season, the carbon market is facing a reduction in production in the near future, and the price rise of electrolytic aluminum in the downstream has supported carbon enterprises. Due to the decrease of production and the increase of furnace shutdown in southern China, the social supply of silicon metal market has gradually decreased, and the price may rise steadily. At present, coal production in China will be limited as the end of the year. However, in the winter heating season, the power plant still needs to replenish the thermal coal, and the short-term steam coal price is still expected to rise.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of business agency, in the 46 th week (11.16-11.20) of 2020, there are 10 kinds of commodities in the energy sector, with WTI crude oil (4.41%), Brent crude oil (3.32%) and MTBE (2.80%). There were 5 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the total number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products of decline were liquefied natural gas (- 5.34%), petroleum coke (- 1.81%) and liquefied gas (- 1.80%). This week, all rose or fell 0.41%.

According to the petroleum coke analysts of the business agency, the demand for petroleum coke has been reduced due to the start-up and resumption of production of early-stage inspection and repair plants, the continuous increase of petroleum coke supply, and the influence of downstream environmental protection and other factors. It is comprehensively predicted that the petroleum coke price will maintain a weak stable trend in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic spot price of polyester staple fiber decreased slightly this week. As of November 20, the average price of domestic polyester staple fiber spot market was 5738 yuan / ton, down 0.34% compared with November 14, and 17.05% lower than that on November 14. In the futures market, on November 20, the staple short fiber Futures (2105) closed up at 6006, up 50% or 0.84% from last Friday. Crude oil and PTA rebound driven futures rebound, downstream demand fell, spot trend weak.

2、 Factors affecting prices

1. PTA: domestic PTA spot market rebounded slightly this week. At the end of this week, the average price of domestic PTA spot market was 3273 yuan / ton, which was 1.36% higher than last Friday and 30.95% lower than that of last Friday. Crude oil prices rose on news that OPEC may postpone the current production reduction to the first quarter of next year. PTA prices rose in a narrow range driven by the rise of crude oil.

2. Ethylene glycol: the domestic ethylene glycol spot market dropped slightly this week. At the end of this week, the average ex factory price of oil to ethylene glycol in North China was 3634 yuan / ton, down 1.77% and 23.1% compared with last Friday. Supply rebounded due to the addition of domestic units and the restart of maintenance units. At the same time, the downstream chemical fiber market gradually into the off-season, production and sales fall. Ethylene glycol in the experience of a month after the decline of the stock again, the price drop is expected to strengthen.

3. Polyester yarn: the domestic polyester yarn market is running smoothly this week. At the end of this week, the average price of 32S polyester yarn spot market in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai was about 13375 yuan / ton, which was the same as last week, with a year-on-year decrease of 7.03%. The yarn Market in Hangzhou, Suzhou and Jiaxing is generally good. Some enterprises lowered their prices and their profit margins were low. The downstream weaving Market is ready for the new year, but the demand is insufficient in the later stage, and polyester yarn is in a weak position.

3、 Future forecast

Business analysts believe that the downstream spinning and weaving Market in the end of the “double 11″ market and the aggravation of the overseas epidemic situation, domestic and foreign orders have decreased, polyester staple fiber spot market is difficult to have a good market in the short term, and the future market may continue to decline in a weak way. It is expected that before the Spring Festival, the polyester industry chain as a whole will remain weak. However, the current crude oil, PTA positive news rebound, short fiber futures short-term or strong oscillation trend.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price has been rising continuously after stabilizing this week, with the weekly low price of 6892 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, the weekly high price of 7033 yuan / ton at the weekend, and the weekly increase of 2.04%.

2、 Analysis and comment

According to the price chart of the business agency, since November 1, the propylene price has dropped sharply at the end of October, and has risen by 200-250 yuan / ton on the 5th. After a short period of stabilization, the price dropped slightly by about 100 yuan / ton on August 8 and 9, and then stabilized again. On the 12th, it rose 50 yuan / ton again, and then fluctuated slightly. On the 19th, it showed a trend of full increase, rising by 50-100 yuan / ton, and again today Generally, the price is raised by about 100 yuan / ton, and the current market turnover is between 6980 yuan / ton and 7300 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 7000 yuan / ton. At present, the inventory of the manufacturer is controllable and the shipment situation is ideal.

On November 19, crude oil prices fell slightly, with little impact on propylene.

PP spot price continued to rise this week, with a weekly increase of 3.77%. The futures market was also relatively ideal, which had a positive impact on propylene.

Acrylic acid market rose significantly this week and then stabilized, with a weekly increase of 7.98%, which had a significant positive impact on propylene.

Propylene oxide market continued to rise sharply this week, with a weekly increase of 9.02%, which also had a more obvious positive effect on propylene.

Epichlorohydrin recovered and stabilized after a small drop this week, with a weekly increase of 3.47% and a weekly amplitude of 5.41%, which had a small positive impact on propylene.

This week, the domestic price of n-butanol continued to rise sharply, and the weekly increase was as high as 15.81%, which had a good effect on propylene.

Octanol market rose significantly this week and then stabilized, with a weekly increase of 5.31%, which had a positive impact on propylene.

This week, isopropanol market also continued to rise sharply, with a weekly increase of 18.75%, which also had a good effect on propylene.

This week, phenol in East China still showed a ladder upward trend, with a weekly increase of 6.92%, which had a certain pulling effect on propylene.

This week, East China acetone also continued to rise sharply, with a weekly increase of 16.31%, which also had a more obvious effect on propylene.

3、 Future forecast

The propylene analysts of the chemical branch of the business society think: in a comprehensive view, the inventory of propylene manufacturers is controllable, the crude oil price is slightly up and down, and the downstream market is relatively ideal, and the rising trend is obvious. Therefore, it is expected that the propylene price will continue to rise in the near future.

Market trend of magnesium market in 2020

On November 20, 2020, the price of magnesium ingot (99.9%, no pickling, simple packaging) in the main production areas of China will run weakly and stably, with the overall range of 13000-13600 yuan / ton, and the actual order negotiation is mainly discussed.

The specific price ranges of each region are as follows:

The ex factory spot exchange including tax in fugu district is 13300-13400 yuan / ton; that in Taiyuan area is 13400-13500 yuan / ton; in Wenxi area, it is 13500-13600 yuan / ton; in Ningxia area, it is 13350-13400 yuan / ton.

The magnesium ingot is the original magnesium ingot of national standard (GB / t3499-2011); it is not pickled, has no wooden pallet and does not pay the acceptance price, and the actual order negotiation is the main one.

Trading improvement & cost rise

At present, the market trading is improving, the downstream rigid demand procurement is increasing, and the demand side is improving. Although the export side of the shipment is not good, domestic market supply and demand in the face of magnesium price support in the near future.

In terms of cost, recently affected by weather and raw material prices, magnesium enterprises in mainstream production areas are willing to raise prices. In addition, since the middle of March this year, the prices of competitive aluminum ingots have been rising, and the prices of magnesium and aluminum have been hanging upside down for a long time. The cost performance ratio of magnesium alloys has increased compared with the previous period, and the downstream demand has slightly improved.

This week, some manufacturers raised their prices. Near the end of the month, some magnesium ingot manufacturers’ demand for fund withdrawal increased, and the increase rate is expected to slow down.

According to the data of business agency, the spot price of gold on November 20 was 391.20 yuan / g, a decrease of 1.56% compared with the average price of 397.40 yuan / G on the spot market at the beginning of the month (11.1); the spot price of gold was 342.54 yuan / g at the beginning of the year, up 14.21%; the spot price of gold was 331.75 yuan / g, up 17.92%; compared with the peak value (8.7) of the year, the spot price of silver was 448 yuan/ G, down 12.68%.

On November 20, the average silver market price was 5016 yuan / kg, an increase of 1.39% compared with the early average price of 4947.33 yuan / kg in the spot market at the beginning of the month (November 1); the spot price of silver at the beginning of the year (01.01) was 4376.33 yuan / kg, an increase of 14.62%; the spot price of silver was 2942.67 yuan / kg, an increase of 70.46%; compared with the peak value (8.11) of the year, the spot price of silver was 6708.33 yuan / kg , down 25.23%.

The price of precious metals is weak and stable

The positive news brought by the new crown vaccine brought a sharp drop in the risk aversion sentiment of the market, and the price of precious metals fluctuated in the first ten days of November. At present, the risk preference of capital in the market is on the rise. Other domestic markets, such as stock market and futures market, have a significant unilateral upward trend, and the price of precious metals is under more pressure.

Since the peak value of precious metal prices in the middle and early August, some profit-making funds have fallen into safety, and the investment enthusiasm has actually begun to slow down. The current round of Dayang market driven by investment demand has started to divert. It is expected that if there is no sudden situation in the near future, it is difficult to re gather the long sentiment, and the price probability rate of precious metal will continue to maintain a weak and stable operation.

1、 Price trend chart of nitric acid Market

Nitric acid price curve

(photo source: Commodity analysis system of Business Club)

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the average price of nitric acid in East China on November 18 was 1800 yuan / ton, up 11.34% from 1616 yuan / ton last week.

2、 Market analysis

Anhui Jinhe quoted 2100-2200 yuan / ton, which was 450-550 yuan / ton higher than last week; Shandong helitai Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted 1900 yuan / ton, which was 100 yuan / ton higher than last week; Huainan Aodeli chemical products Sales Co., Ltd. quoted 1900 yuan / ton of concentrated nitric acid, with an increase of 250 yuan / ton compared with last week; Wenshui County Synthetic Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted 1530 yuan / ton of concentrated nitric acid, dilute nitric acid The price of nitric acid is 680 yuan / ton, and the price of concentrated nitric acid is flat compared with last week; the quotation of concentrated nitric acid of Shaanxi Xinghua Chemical Co., Ltd. is 1700 yuan / ton, which is 100 yuan / ton higher than that of last week; the nitric acid market is in good demand, and nitric acid parking in some areas leads to tight supply of nitric acid products market.

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the average price of liquid ammonia in Shandong Province at the beginning of this week was 2960 yuan / ton, which was 2983 yuan / ton on January 18, up 0.79%; the average market price of aniline at the beginning of this week was 6633 yuan / ton, and the average price on November 18 was 6800 yuan / ton, up 2.51 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

Nitric acid supply is tight, nitric acid analysts of business agency predict that the price will rise mainly.

Trend analysis

According to the business agency data monitoring: this week the cobalt price fell sharply, the cobalt Market weakened. As of November 19, the cobalt price was 2633333.34 yuan / ton, down 1.56% from 267500.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week (November 16).

Trend of cobalt price in LME Market

It can be seen from the LME cobalt price trend chart that the LME cobalt price fell sharply this week, and the international cobalt market declined, which was negative for the domestic cobalt market, and the downward pressure on domestic cobalt price increased.

New energy vehicle market in Europe

According to the data of the European Automobile Manufacturing Association (AECA), in October 2020, the registered number of new energy vehicles in major European countries (Germany, France, Britain and other eight countries) reached 119000, a year-on-year increase of + 202% and a slight decrease of 8% month on month. Norway, the United Kingdom, Italy and other countries in October had a significant decline in sales. The growth rate of new energy vehicle sales in Europe slowed down, the favorable support of European new energy vehicle market to the international cobalt market was weakened, and the domestic cobalt price was not driven enough.

Market Overview

According to Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at the business agency, the price of cobalt in the LME market fell this week, while the price of international cobalt fell. The demand for global cobalt market was low and the support of international cobalt market was insufficient. The weakening of the international cobalt Market dragged down the domestic cobalt market, and the domestic cobalt price fluctuated and fell.