This week, the international crude oil price continued to rise sharply, and the market price followed the upward trend. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the gasoline price on November 27 was 5321 yuan / ton, up 2.61% from the beginning of the week; on November 27, the price of diesel oil was 4717 yuan / ton, up 1.82% from the beginning of the week.

In November, the international oil price continued to push up, and has been rising for four consecutive weeks. On the one hand, the good news of the new crown vaccine has boosted the demand expectation; on the other hand, according to the news released from the market, OPEC + is expected to further maintain the current super scale production reduction, which is good for the supply expectation. WTI crude oil prices rose 7.76% this week, while Brent crude oil prices rose 6.20%.

In terms of gasoline demand, the weather turned cold and the number of car trips increased, which had a certain boosting effect on the gasoline market demand. In addition, the international oil price rose sharply, the market transaction atmosphere turned better, and the gasoline price rose slightly. In terms of diesel demand, the domestic weather was getting colder, and the outdoor diesel demand for road engineering and infrastructure construction was gradually declining. The southern rush to work a year ago was good for diesel demand. Under the guidance of the price difference, northern diesel oil was promoted The increase in the outflow of oil resources has a certain support for the overall diesel market price.

As of November 20, the average start-up load of the daily decompression unit was about 75%, and the start-up load of the refinery remained at a high level, and the domestic product oil supply was sufficient.

Lu Xingjun, an oil product analyst at the business club, believes that: the national oil price has risen to a periodic high, and the epidemic situation has not improved, so the upward trend of oil price can be described as a lot of resistance. At the same time, the demand for refined oil market is not good in substance. In the short term, the market price of refined oil is expected to fall steadily.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of November 27, the average price quoted by domestic premium DMF enterprises was 9133.33 yuan / ton. This week, the domestic DMF market price was running smoothly, and the atmosphere of negotiation was flat, which was 13.02% lower than that of the same period last month, In November, the market of DMF was in a weak position. Compared with the price in October, the overall operation of DMF was stable and the focus of negotiation was stable.

This week, the DMF market is running smoothly, the negotiation focus is stable, the enthusiasm for buying and selling is general, the downstream inventory pressure is still remaining, the shipment volume is slow, and the purchasing gas is insufficient. As of November 27, Luxi Chemical Industry quoted 8800 yuan / ton, Zhangqiu Riyue 8900 yuan / ton, Hualu Hengsheng 9700 yuan / ton, East China market 8950-9200 yuan / ton, South China market 9300-9450 yuan / ton, the upstream trend is flat Stable, no obvious favorable support.

The upstream methanol has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, and the purchase of just needed methanol is given priority to. The negotiation range of Shandong methanol Lubei market is between 1960-1980 yuan / T, and it is delivered to spot exchange. The market price of methanol in southern Shandong Province dropped by 20 yuan / ton to 2030-2040 yuan / ton, and the mainstream quotation of Linyi local goods dropped by 10 yuan / ton to 2020-2030 yuan / ton, and there was no quotation for logistics goods. The transaction of methanol market in central Shandong was stable to 2150 yuan / ton, and the transaction of peripheral goods was up to 1970-1980 yuan / ton.

On November 26, the chemical index was 858 points, unchanged with yesterday, 15.55% lower than 1016 points (2012-03-13), and 43.48% higher than 598 points, the lowest point on April 8, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

DMF analysts believe that: in the short term, the DMF market runs smoothly and the focus of negotiation is stable. (the above prices are provided by major DMF manufacturers all over the country and analyzed by business DMF analysts for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details.)

According to the data of business agency, as of November 27, the average price of domestic fuel oil 180CST was 3737.50 yuan / ton (including tax), a slight increase of 2.75% compared with the beginning of the week.

On November 27, the fuel oil commodity index was 75.70, up 1.52 points compared with yesterday, 34.69% lower than 115.91 points (October 17, 2018), and 64.28% higher than 46.08 points, the lowest point on August 15, 2016. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

According to the business agency, as of November 27, the self raised low sulfur price of 180 CST fuel oil in Zhoushan, 3800 yuan / ton in 120 CST, 3750 yuan / ton in Shanghai and 3850 yuan / ton in 120 CST.

International crude oil prices rose sharply this week, supporting fuel oil prices. WTI crude oil closed at US $45.71/barrel on the 27th, up 7.76% from US $42.42/barrel at the beginning of the week.

Singapore’s fuel stocks increased and support for fuel oil weakened. It is understood that Singapore Enterprise Development Council (ESG): in the week ending November 25, Singapore’s fuel oil inventory increased by 2.036 million barrels to 24.038 million barrels, a five week high.

Aftermarket forecast: the energy analysts of business agency believe that crude oil rose sharply, and the raw material cost of fuel oil 180CST was supported, but the downstream demand was weak. Generally speaking, it is expected that the fuel oil 180CST market will rise steadily in the short term.

1、 Price data

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, the price of domestic refiners’ petroleum coke products continued to fall. At the beginning of the week, the average price of petroleum coke in Shandong market was 1636.50 yuan / ton, and the average price of petroleum coke at weekend was 154.25 yuan / ton, with a price drop of 5.88% and a year-on-year increase of 55.19%. On November 27, the commodity index of petroleum coke was 119.80, down 0.97 points from yesterday, 23.00% from 155.59 points (2018-01-25), 79.10% higher than 66.89 points on March 28, 2016. (Note: period refers to 2012-09-30 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The decline in the price of petroleum coke is mainly due to increased supply. The price of low sulfur coke is firm and the demand is stable. In terms of medium and high sulfur, the operating rate of coking units has increased, and the supply has increased. Affected by the heating season, the downstream carbon enterprises shut down and reduce production. The demand is general, and the downstream receiving intention is general. In order to stimulate the shipment, refineries choose to sell at a reduced price.

Upstream: in November, the international oil price continued to rise, and has been rising for four consecutive weeks. On the one hand, the good news of the new crown vaccine has boosted the demand expectation; on the other hand, according to the news released from the market, OPEC + is expected to further maintain the current super scale production reduction, which is good for the supply expectation. WTI crude oil prices rose 7.76% this week, while Brent crude oil prices rose 6.20%.

Downstream: affected by environmental factors in heating season, the carbon market is facing production reduction and shutdown in the near future; the price of electrolytic aluminum in the downstream continues to rise; the price of silicon metal market is steadily rising due to the reduction of production and furnace shutdown in the southern region, and the social supply is gradually reduced, and the price may rise steadily; in terms of steam coal, the downstream purchase enthusiasm is higher, the port coal is better transferred out, and the growth rate of coal supply in the production area is limited, The coal inventory in northern ports has been growing slowly, and the price of coal and coal transportation has been rising steadily. In winter heating season, the power plant still needs to replenish the storage of steam coal. The short-term price of steam coal is expected to rise.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of business agency, there are 13 kinds of commodities in the energy sector’s rise and fall list of commodity prices in the 47th week of 2020 (11.23-11.27), among which there are 3 commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 18.8% of the total commodities monitored in the plate; the top three commodities of increase are liquefied natural gas (8.51%), WTI crude oil (7.76%) and Brent crude oil (6.29%). There were two kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the total number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top two products were petroleum coke (- 5.88%) and methanol (- 0.35%). This week, the average rise and fall was 2.51%.

The oil coke analysts of the business agency believe that: the current supply of petroleum coke is increasing, and the downstream environmental protection and other factors have reduced the demand for petroleum coke, and the downstream receiving intention is general. In order to stimulate the shipment, refineries choose to sell at a reduced price. It is expected that the petroleum coke will be stable in the short term.

1、 Price trend

2、 Market analysis

According to the data of the business agency, the market of potassium sulfate in Hebei is stable this week, and the output of Mannheim potassium sulfate is about 2550 yuan / ton for 50% powder and 2650 yuan / ton for 50% granules and 52% water soluble powder. The supply and sales of potash in Xinjiang SDIC were normal, with 52% powder arriving at the station price of 2740 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton compared with last week; the station price of 50% powder of Qinghai water salt system was about 2475 yuan / ton, increased by 50 yuan / ton compared with last week. Processing type potassium sulfate is supported by a certain raw material cost, and now it is mainly based on a single discussion and replenishment on demand. The ex factory price of 50% powder Mannheim potassium sulfate is about 2550 yuan / ton, and the factory price of 50% Mannheim potassium sulfate is about 2650 yuan / ton, and the price has little change from last week.

3、 Future forecast

Business Club potassium sulfate analysts believe: potassium sulfate Market smooth operation, the overall inventory pressure is small. The strong price of potassium chloride forms a favorable support, and the later demand is waiting for release, and the future market is expected to remain stable.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic spot price of polyester staple fiber has been stable this week. As of November 27, the average price of domestic polyester staple fiber spot market was 5738 yuan / ton, which was the same as last Friday’s price, with a year-on-year decrease of 16.30%. A few manufacturers have slightly increased their prices. In the futures market, on November 27, the staple short fiber Futures (2105) closed higher at 6096, up 90% or 1.5% from last Friday. The rise of crude oil and PTA rebound led to the rebound of polyester staple fiber futures, and the rebound of futures led to a sharp recovery of spot production and sales. However, affected by demand constraints, the spot polyester staple fiber is difficult to continue to strengthen.

2、 Factors affecting prices

1. PTA: domestic PTA spot market rebounded slightly this week. At the end of this week, the average price of domestic PTA spot market was 3341 yuan / ton, which was 1.35% higher than last Friday and 30.37% lower than that of last Friday. Crude oil prices rose due to the positive effects of new crown vaccine and OPEC + is expected to further maintain the current over scale production reduction news. High crude oil cost support enhanced, boosting PTA price rebound.

The domestic spot market of ethylene glycol rose this week. At the end of this week, the average ex factory price of oil to ethylene glycol in North China was 3805 yuan / ton, up 4.75% from last Friday and down 20.73% year on year. Inner Mongolia Rongxin and Taiwan’s two units have been short of maintenance supply, crude oil is high, the cost is rising, and the price of ethylene glycol rebounds. However, downstream chemical fiber market gradually into the off-season, production and sales fall, glycol or re-appear accumulation, market downward pressure increased.

3. Polyester yarn: the domestic polyester yarn market is running smoothly this week. At the end of this week, the average price of 32S polyester yarn spot market in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai was about 13375 yuan / ton, which was the same as last week, with a year-on-year decrease of 7.03%. The downstream market prepared goods for the new year, but the orders for the shopping festival were gradually completed, the follow-up orders were weak, the loom started to decline, and the inventory of polyester yarn enterprises increased month on month.

3、 Future forecast

Business agency analysts believe that the recent continuous rise in crude oil, good market production and sales, upstream raw material prices to form a strong support for costs. However, the downstream market “double 11″ and “double 12″ orders gradually entered the traditional off-season, the new orders were not good, the polyester yarn mill inventory was high, and the weaving start-up rate decreased. After the hot spot production and sales of staple fiber, the inventory level rose, and the short-term follow-up purchasing enthusiasm may weaken, and the wait-and-see mood increases. It is expected that the future staple fiber spot market will enter the accumulation stage, and if the spot price is not driven by futures, there may be a downward trend. However, the current crude oil continued to rebound, short-term fiber futures or continue to show a strong oscillation trend.

According to business agency data, on November 27, the spot price of gold was 378.50 yuan / g, down 4.76% compared with the average price of 397.40 yuan / g in the spot market at the beginning of the month (11.1); the spot price of gold was 342.54 yuan / g at the beginning of the year, up 10.50%; the spot price of gold was 331.75 yuan / g, up 14.09%; compared with the peak value (8.7) in the year, the spot price of silver was 448 yuan/ G, down 15.51%.

On November 27, the average price of silver market was 4839 yuan / kg, which was 4947.33 yuan / kg at the beginning of the month (November 1), a decrease of 2.19%; compared with the beginning of the year (01.01), the silver spot price was 4376.33 yuan / kg, up 10.57%; the silver spot price was 2942.67 yuan / kg, up 64.44%; compared with the peak value (8.11) of the year, the spot price of silver was 6708.33 yuan / kg , down 27.84%.

Noble metals continue weak stability

Good news from overseas vaccines has greatly weakened the biggest source of risk aversion sentiment in the market this year. Since the peak value of precious metal prices reached in the middle and early August, some profit-making funds have begun to operate steadily in the third quarter of 2020, including some central banks, such as Uzbekistan and Turkey.

According to the world gold association, in the third quarter of 2020, central banks sold 12 tons of gold, the second quarter in nearly 10 years. In the third quarter of 2020, the total global gold ETF positions reached a new record of 3880.0 tons, of which the net inflow in the third quarter was 272.5 tons. The growth rate of gold ETF positions in the third quarter was lower than that in the first half of the year.

After the third quarter, the investment fever of precious metals has actually begun to slow down. The current round of Dayang market driven by investment demand has started to divert.

After the price of precious metals moved down, the current horizontal volatility operation. On the one hand, the monetary easing policies of the major central banks continue, and the price supporting factors are still there; in addition, geopolitical risk events such as the Sino US situation and the Taiwan Strait situation occur frequently, and the possibility of small band risk aversion in emergencies still exists, and the downward space is narrowed. On the other hand, the capital risk preference of the market rose in November, and other domestic markets such as the stock market and futures market showed a significant unilateral upward trend, and the price of precious metals was under more pressure.

Recent news: China Merchants Bank: since November 28, the bank has suspended the application of opening trading accounts for new customers of two-way paper gold and silver, solid paper gold and silver, zhaocaijin business (acting for the business of Shanghai Gold Exchange) from all channels of our bank (including counter, mobile banking, online banking, Zhaoyin Huijin app, etc.), so that the normal transactions of customers who have opened accounts will not be affected.

Price list of aluminum ingot

According to the data of business agency, the average price of domestic aluminum ingot in East China market on November 27 was 16346.67 yuan / ton, an increase of 10.13% compared with the average market price of 14696.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (November 1), 12.32% higher than the average market price at the beginning of the year (January 1), 11230 yuan / ton, an increase of 45.48%.

Recent positive factors

1. Driven by macro factors

This month, the regional comprehensive economic partnership agreement (RCEP) was signed, adding that the domestic economy has maintained a faster than expected growth rate or will become the only country with positive growth in the main economy. The news of the success of vaccines in overseas countries offsets the current deterioration of overseas epidemic situation. The medium-term good expectation is strengthened to boost the expectation of foreign industrial demand. In terms of policy, large-scale international stimulus policies are expected The period is still in, ignite the enthusiasm of funds to do long colored plate.

2. Supply and demand oriented

The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum continued to move down, the domestic downstream demand was strong, and the supply and demand were oriented well. On the other hand, the investment in domestic manufacturing industry rose steadily. With the influence of the news of vaccine progress, overseas market was relatively lagging behind, and the market expectation was temporarily formed.

3. Strong investment demand

In November, the risk preference of market funds rose, and the overall unilateral upward trend of other domestic markets such as stock market and futures market was more significant. The linkage between the future and the present will boost the price of aluminum.

In November 2020, the domestic market price of 1 ᦇ antimony ingot is temporarily stable, and the average domestic market price is 42500 yuan / ton, which is flat compared with the previous month.

On November 25, the antimony commodity index was 59.16, unchanged with yesterday, down 42.18% from 102.32 (2012-10-16), and 25.93% higher than 46.98, the lowest point on December 24, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-09-08 to now).

The domestic antimony ingot market price remained stable this month. The overseas market price is still high. In addition, there are still few imported ore terminals in the early stage, the domestic raw material supply is tight, and the mine end price is high, which also increases the cost of antimony products. At present, the main mentality of domestic manufacturers is still to maintain the price, and the environmental protection production restriction in winter is further tightened, and the output is affected to a certain extent,. As of the 26th, the average price of 2 × low Bi sb ingot, 1 × sb ingot, 1 × sb ingot, and 0 × sb ingot in domestic market was 41750 yuan / T, 42250 yuan / T and 43000 yuan / T, respectively. The average price of 2 × high Bi sb ingot was 40750 yuan / T, which was temporarily stable compared with the price of last month. The market price of antimony trioxide follows the trend of antimony ingot, and the price is still stable this month. As of the end of the month, the average price of antimony trioxide is 99.5% at 38500 yuan / ton and 99.8% at 39500 yuan / ton, which is the same as that of last month.

On the macro level, the signing of the regional comprehensive economic partnership agreement (RCEP) this month added that the domestic economy maintained a faster than expected growth, the domestic macro data was better, the investment in manufacturing industry rose steadily, and the recovery of consumption was better than expected. The news of the success of the International Shanghai exogenous vaccine offset the current deterioration of the overseas epidemic situation, and the medium-term prospects for improvement are strengthened. In terms of policy, the expectation of large-scale international stimulus policies is still in place. The market is full of emotions and soars, and the nonferrous metal plate is on the rise as a whole.

The business agency believes that the antimony market price this month is mainly to digest the early rise, the market trading atmosphere is general, and most of the high price period is purchased on demand.

On the 26th, the domestic liquid ammonia market remained stable in most regions, while Hebei and Shandong have been mainly stable this week. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the mainstream market quotation in Shandong is 3000-3100 yuan / ton.

The price of liquid ammonia in Shandong remained stable this week, with sufficient supply from large factories, normal operation of the plant, and reasonable inventory pressure. Affected by the stability of the overall domestic urea market, especially by the limited production in some domestic regions, the operating rate decreased, and the supply brought some support. At present, the ammonia volume in Shandong remained at the early level, still at a medium high level. From the downstream, in the current agricultural fertilizer off-season, the terminal does not pick up the goods, and there is no market in many places, which makes the liquid ammonia not rise much.

In other regions, the price of liquid ammonia in Shandong has stabilized, and the outflow of ammonia in Shandong is not as large as expected, and the impact on Hebei is not obvious. Therefore, the prices of manufacturers in Hebei remain stable, and the prices have not changed greatly. The range of rise and fall is about 50 yuan / ton. At present, the Cangzhou unit of a plant in Hebei still produces a small amount of liquid ammonia, so the pressure is not big. This is also an important factor to balance the supply and demand of the region. The liquid ammonia quantity in the region basically maintains a balance between supply and demand, and the current price is between 3050-3150 yuan / ton.

In the future, the business agency believes that the liquid ammonia market is stable and weak in the near weekend, especially in the low season of downstream fertilizer. It is expected that the domestic ammonia volume will remain moderate in the short term, so it is expected that the domestic liquid ammonia market will remain mainly consolidation in the near future. Some regions may be affected by production restrictions, and prices will continue to strengthen. However, manufacturers in Shandong, Hebei and Northeast China may accumulate stocks in the later period, which may bring some downward risks to the future market.